Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December
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  Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #350 on: September 23, 2021, 12:39:20 AM »

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/divided-swiss-vote-same-sex-marriage-after-fraught-campaign-2021-09-22/

Quote
Swiss voters decide on Sunday whether to allow same-sex couples to wed and adopt children after a highly charged campaign pitted gay rights activists against conservative opponents in one of the last Western European countries to still ban gay marriage.

The federal government and parliament approved opening civil marriage to same-sex couples, but opponents forced a referendum on the issue under Switzerland's system of direct democracy.

During the campaign, opponents of the reform used images of crying babies, while supporters waved "Yes, I do" rainbow flags at the Zurich and Geneva pride parades.

The share of voters set to approve same-sex marriage fell to 63% in the latest poll by gfs.bern for broadcaster SRG, while the share of those against rose to 35%, versus 69% and 29% a month earlier.

....

In Switzerland, same-sex couples received the right to enter civil partnerships in 2007 and the right to adopt children parented by their partner in 2018.

Under the amended law, same-sex couples would be allowed to adopt children unrelated to them.

Married lesbian couples would also be allowed to have children through sperm donation, currently legal only for married heterosexual couples. Under the law, both women would be recognised as the child's official parents from birth.



Any experts on Swiss politics want to share their thoughts on this referendum?
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Good Habit
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« Reply #351 on: September 23, 2021, 01:21:34 AM »

Any experts on Swiss politics want to share their thoughts on this referendum?

Well, there is already a thread on that....

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=310834.0

-- and yes - it will almoust certainly pass with >60% yes and <40% no..
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #352 on: September 23, 2021, 01:34:52 AM »

Any experts on Swiss politics want to share their thoughts on this referendum?

Well, there is already a thread on that....

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=310834.0

-- and yes - it will almoust certainly pass with >60% yes and <40% no..

First, I wasn't aware of that thread, and second, I'd have treated as a general megathread, with this thread being a thread for this specific referendum.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #353 on: September 23, 2021, 12:58:16 PM »

Speaking of which - participation looks decent at the moment. In Geneva canton it is practically at 40% as of this morning, in Zürich city it in on 48%. In both cases a 6-7% above the June votes where the tepid participation in the cities and massive rural turnout were what sunk the CO2 law.

As in about it was 15-20% higher than normal in the countryside in June, whereas the cities were only marginally above normal levels. This time cities are well above normal, rural areas seem to be above normal too, but nothing like the June levels. Which goes for Free Church heartlands like the Kulm district in Aargau that will be the biggest No to marriage equality votes too.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #354 on: September 26, 2021, 05:11:11 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2021, 03:50:37 PM by parochial boy »

First projection is in:

Gay marriage to be accepted with around 63-65% yes; and 99% initiative to come in with 33-37% Yes.

A few rural, catholic and conservative cantons already most in - Valais at 55% yes and Graubunden at 61% Yes. Nidwald and Glarus both with final results over 60% Yes (Surprise). Safe to say if it's 60% Yes in Nidwald, then Gay marriage isn't getting rejected

Results here or here
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #355 on: September 26, 2021, 08:20:56 AM »

The wealthy suburbs of Geneva which voted >80% No to the 99% thing seem pretty lukewarm in their support of same-sex marriage. 61% in Cologny/Vandoeuvres compared to 65% nationally. Is it primarily financial services in these parts?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #356 on: September 26, 2021, 08:43:44 AM »
« Edited: September 26, 2021, 09:02:26 AM by parochial boy »

The wealthy suburbs of Geneva which voted >80% No to the 99% thing seem pretty lukewarm in their support of same-sex marriage. 61% in Cologny/Vandoeuvres compared to 65% nationally. Is it primarily financial services in these parts?

In a word, yeah, with a smattering of Russian oligarchs, Gulf state Sheikhs and African dictators - a chunk of who do actually have nationality these days. Although in that respect, it is pretty interesting to contrast those places to the Zürich equivalents like Zollikon and Küsnacht that were close to 70% Yes.

I think there are broadly two things to it here:
One is that Geneva's finance industry is primarily concentrated around Private banking/wealth management and commodities trading. Which tend to be slightly more conservative in outlook than the more typical financial services that you get in Zürich.

The other is that those Rive Gauche suburbs, Cologny being classic example, and Geneva's private banking industry in particular are the home of the old Calvinist bourgeois elite. As in, up until it's dissapearance, Cologny was the heartland of the old Liberal party (counterintuitively actually the traditional conservative protestant party). So in that respect, is one of the few places in the canton where Protestantism is actually relevant and a lot of the inhabitants still hold to a pretty old school conservative view of the world.

Also kind of noteworthy as to how the Röstigraben has dissapeared this time round. Compared to the anti-discrimination law in 2020 the likes of Geneva, Vaud and Neuchâtel have all moved around 10% to the right, while the typically conservative rural cantons of Central Switzerland have moved 10% to the left. Despite a thematically similar topic and very similar final score. I can sort of understand that the anti-centralism and anti-state instincts of Central Switzerland would explain the difference there, but not actually sure what was up in Romandie.

Biggish linguistic divide on the other topic though - almost a relief to see Jura restoring its status as the most left wing canton.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #357 on: September 26, 2021, 09:22:26 AM »

And final results:

Gay marriage, including the right to adoption and access to fertility treatment for same sex couples is accepted with 65,1% support.

The 99% initiative is rejected with 35,1% support.

Gay marriage was excepted in every single canton - the lowest support being in Appenzell Innerrhoden at 50,8% - this being the canton that only gave women the vote in 1990, so it's still quite a big change in mindset.

Courtesy of Watson, here is the results of the Marriage equality vote by Commune:



The No vote being a fairly representative map of the Conservative Protestant "free churches" (the Berner Oberland, Emmental, Jura Bernois, Kulm in Aargau and the Zürich Oberland) the rest mostly made up remote, mostly catholic mountainous areas (Valais lateral valleys, Innerschwyz, the Levantine in northern Ticino with the Italophone Grisons as well as the remoter parts of the Appenzell's and Toggenburg in St Gallen). Also a load of No's in the urban south of Ticino - which continues to make no sense politcally.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #358 on: September 26, 2021, 09:27:34 AM »

the lowest support being in Appenzell Innerrhoden at 50,8% - this being the canton that only gave women the vote in 1990, so it's still quite a big change in mindset.

This is a CVP stronghold right? Very religious?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #359 on: September 26, 2021, 09:43:51 AM »

the lowest support being in Appenzell Innerrhoden at 50,8% - this being the canton that only gave women the vote in 1990, so it's still quite a big change in mindset.

This is a CVP stronghold right? Very religious?

It is the only canton in the country that is less than 10% irreligious, so yep, and was also very isolated until very recently.

That said, as you can sort of see on the map - it isn't actually the most conservative place in the country. The Simmental in Bern voted no and is much more populous that AI - like four times the population. It's just that AI is minuscule and lacks that counterweight of the rest of the canton that the Simmental does. In that respect AI is sort of a perfect gerrymander of a very conservative canton (even if not technically a gerrymander at all - it has existed for hundreds of years and exists for very definite historical reason)
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« Reply #360 on: September 26, 2021, 01:35:18 PM »

the lowest support being in Appenzell Innerrhoden at 50,8% - this being the canton that only gave women the vote in 1990, so it's still quite a big change in mindset.

This is a CVP stronghold right? Very religious?

It is the only canton in the country that is less than 10% irreligious, so yep, and was also very isolated until very recently.

That said, as you can sort of see on the map - it isn't actually the most conservative place in the country. The Simmental in Bern voted no and is much more populous that AI - like four times the population. It's just that AI is minuscule and lacks that counterweight of the rest of the canton that the Simmental does. In that respect AI is sort of a perfect gerrymander of a very conservative canton (even if not technically a gerrymander at all - it has existed for hundreds of years and exists for very definite historical reason)
Why is Simmental so conservative?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #361 on: September 26, 2021, 01:47:12 PM »

the lowest support being in Appenzell Innerrhoden at 50,8% - this being the canton that only gave women the vote in 1990, so it's still quite a big change in mindset.

This is a CVP stronghold right? Very religious?

It is the only canton in the country that is less than 10% irreligious, so yep, and was also very isolated until very recently.

That said, as you can sort of see on the map - it isn't actually the most conservative place in the country. The Simmental in Bern voted no and is much more populous that AI - like four times the population. It's just that AI is minuscule and lacks that counterweight of the rest of the canton that the Simmental does. In that respect AI is sort of a perfect gerrymander of a very conservative canton (even if not technically a gerrymander at all - it has existed for hundreds of years and exists for very definite historical reason)
Why is Simmental so conservative?

It, as well as the Kanderstal, which is the next river valley along are home a large number of Free Churches. These are more or less the equivalent of born again/evangelical churches in the US and that part of the Berner Oberland is more or less the part of the country where they are the most influential. For instance, the Frutigen-Niedersimmental district is traditionally the EDU/UDF's strongest region - and that party functions more or less as the political representative of the free churches.

I'm tempted to say it's a little less touristy, and as a consequent a little less cosmopolitan than the rest of the Oberland - which has Interlaken and Lauterbrunnen and the Jungfrau and Eiger and stuff. But Adelboden and Gstaad are both pretty well known ski resorts in Kanderstal and Simmental respectively, so it's not a perfect explanation.
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Sven der Igel
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« Reply #362 on: September 26, 2021, 02:09:19 PM »

Good result.

Better late than never.

Why is Genf (Geneva) only 65% for gay marriage ?

Only 1% more than Switzerland as a whole ?

Conservative immigrants who got naturalized voting against ?
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« Reply #363 on: September 26, 2021, 02:10:57 PM »

Good result.

Better late than never.

Why is Genf (Geneva) only 65% for gay marriage ?

Only 1% more than Switzerland as a whole ?

Conservative immigrants who got naturalized voting against ?
I suppose that is a possibility. Parochialboy would know better, though.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #364 on: September 26, 2021, 02:54:21 PM »
« Edited: September 26, 2021, 03:14:36 PM by parochial boy »

Yeah mentioned a bit already, I'm not entirely sure. Looking at immigrant heavy and lower income areas - Meyrin was at 57% yes; Vernier at 59%; Onex at 60%; Chêne-Bourg at 65%. In Geneva itself Servette was a little over 60% but Paquis was on 69%. So they did pull the canton to the right a little bit, but they always do on these sorts of issues - that didn't stop the canton from being at 76% Yes (compared to 63% nationally) on the anti-LGBT-discrimination law a year and a half ago.

More interesting is that, as mentioned earlier, the rich left bank suburbs had pretty low scores and even the university neighourhood of Plainpalais - normally one of the most left wing voting booths in the country - was "only" 73% Yes. In comparison the equivalent low income, immigrant heavy neighbourhoods of Zürich Kreis 12 and Schlieren were around 68% Yes - so the answer isn't there.

The story really is comparatively tepid support across French Switzerland as a whole - the patterns within Romandie are actually fairly normal. As in, Vaud, Geneva and Neuchâtel voting furthest left; the Valais, the rural Fribourg districts, Jura Bernois and Ajoie all being further right (but with much less rural-urban polarisation than in German Switzerland). The difference is just that the region as a whole voted more relatively conservatively than it normally does. Which contrasts to the normal service in the 99% initiative, so it's not down to turnouts either.

The reason as to why? I'm not sure. There was a particularly hard rejection of the law among the Valais Christian Democrats, plus the influence of the conservative (old Liberal party) element in the PLR that led to some fights within the party. For example the Geneva Young PLR initially rejecting the law before backtracking. But beyond that, it's speculation, and I guess it's just one of those things that pops up when you have different linguistic regions having different debates and different campaigns and not always interacting with each other that much.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #365 on: September 26, 2021, 08:30:10 PM »

Smiley
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Sven der Igel
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« Reply #366 on: September 26, 2021, 11:32:54 PM »

Yeah mentioned a bit already, I'm not entirely sure. Looking at immigrant heavy and lower income areas - Meyrin was at 57% yes; Vernier at 59%; Onex at 60%; Chêne-Bourg at 65%. In Geneva itself Servette was a little over 60% but Paquis was on 69%. So they did pull the canton to the right a little bit, but they always do on these sorts of issues - that didn't stop the canton from being at 76% Yes (compared to 63% nationally) on the anti-LGBT-discrimination law a year and a half ago.

More interesting is that, as mentioned earlier, the rich left bank suburbs had pretty low scores and even the university neighourhood of Plainpalais - normally one of the most left wing voting booths in the country - was "only" 73% Yes. In comparison the equivalent low income, immigrant heavy neighbourhoods of Zürich Kreis 12 and Schlieren were around 68% Yes - so the answer isn't there.

The story really is comparatively tepid support across French Switzerland as a whole - the patterns within Romandie are actually fairly normal. As in, Vaud, Geneva and Neuchâtel voting furthest left; the Valais, the rural Fribourg districts, Jura Bernois and Ajoie all being further right (but with much less rural-urban polarisation than in German Switzerland). The difference is just that the region as a whole voted more relatively conservatively than it normally does. Which contrasts to the normal service in the 99% initiative, so it's not down to turnouts either.

The reason as to why? I'm not sure. There was a particularly hard rejection of the law among the Valais Christian Democrats, plus the influence of the conservative (old Liberal party) element in the PLR that led to some fights within the party. For example the Geneva Young PLR initially rejecting the law before backtracking. But beyond that, it's speculation, and I guess it's just one of those things that pops up when you have different linguistic regions having different debates and different campaigns and not always interacting with each other that much.

Thanks.
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afleitch
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« Reply #367 on: September 27, 2021, 02:54:44 PM »

Yeah mentioned a bit already, I'm not entirely sure. Looking at immigrant heavy and lower income areas - Meyrin was at 57% yes; Vernier at 59%; Onex at 60%; Chêne-Bourg at 65%. In Geneva itself Servette was a little over 60% but Paquis was on 69%. So they did pull the canton to the right a little bit, but they always do on these sorts of issues - that didn't stop the canton from being at 76% Yes (compared to 63% nationally) on the anti-LGBT-discrimination law a year and a half ago.

More interesting is that, as mentioned earlier, the rich left bank suburbs had pretty low scores and even the university neighourhood of Plainpalais - normally one of the most left wing voting booths in the country - was "only" 73% Yes. In comparison the equivalent low income, immigrant heavy neighbourhoods of Zürich Kreis 12 and Schlieren were around 68% Yes - so the answer isn't there.

The story really is comparatively tepid support across French Switzerland as a whole - the patterns within Romandie are actually fairly normal. As in, Vaud, Geneva and Neuchâtel voting furthest left; the Valais, the rural Fribourg districts, Jura Bernois and Ajoie all being further right (but with much less rural-urban polarisation than in German Switzerland). The difference is just that the region as a whole voted more relatively conservatively than it normally does. Which contrasts to the normal service in the 99% initiative, so it's not down to turnouts either.

The reason as to why? I'm not sure. There was a particularly hard rejection of the law among the Valais Christian Democrats, plus the influence of the conservative (old Liberal party) element in the PLR that led to some fights within the party. For example the Geneva Young PLR initially rejecting the law before backtracking. But beyond that, it's speculation, and I guess it's just one of those things that pops up when you have different linguistic regions having different debates and different campaigns and not always interacting with each other that much.

The answer might be partially non-political. There is a point at which certain positions, particularly with both broad and deep support, no longer result in lop-sided support in favour, that you might otherwise see based on demographics, in a result closer to 50-50. You'll still see some more lop-sided 'against' due to committed votes against a proposal. But 'Yes' finds a ceiling a little below than what you might expect.

In Ireland, it was 62% Yes overall, but in Dublin, no more than 70-75% in very favourable demographic constituencies. Australia, excluding very LGBT friendly districts, had a similar spread.

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parochial boy
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« Reply #368 on: September 27, 2021, 04:41:09 PM »


The answer might be partially non-political. There is a point at which certain positions, particularly with both broad and deep support, no longer result in lop-sided support in favour, that you might otherwise see based on demographics, in a result closer to 50-50. You'll still see some more lop-sided 'against' due to committed votes against a proposal. But 'Yes' finds a ceiling a little below than what you might expect.

In Ireland, it was 62% Yes overall, but in Dublin, no more than 70-75% in very favourable demographic constituencies. Australia, excluding very LGBT friendly districts, had a similar spread.


Yeah I can see that as being a factor - but it still leaves a question in my mind as to why Geneva would max out at 68% while Zürich and Bern reached 80% and 83%, as in, they did hit the lop sided levels. I mean, there are demographic differences as Geneva the old stuffy bourgeois as well as the working class neighbourhoods that have both mostly been gentrified out of the two German speaking cities - but they still both voted clearly more in favour than Lausanne, which is normally the most left wing city outright.

So why would there be a lower ceiling in French than in German Switzerland? Because it otherwise does seem to fit what you say. A few specific communities voted against the law in considerable numbers; most of the country - on both sides of the linguistic divide - was around 60% or slightly higher in favour; but then the German speaking cities hit scores that were noticeably higher than the francophone equivalents. Even in ways that are quite unusual.

(I am a little bit dissapointed in this actually. Part of French Swiss identity is based around a self-perception of being more progressive and open minded than the Swiss Germans. And this is the second time in the space of a a few months that it hasn't actually worked out that way. I'm being a bit selfish in the context, but seeing my unglamourous home town, which usually votes 10% or so to the left of the country, vote to its right on two fairly hot button social issues is little bit bitter in that respect).
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Zinneke
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« Reply #369 on: September 28, 2021, 03:08:46 AM »
« Edited: September 28, 2021, 04:50:12 AM by Zinneke »

Well, I don't Know the extent of the influence of the French debate on Swiss Romands, but "Manif Pour Tous" was a well oiled, well prepared, well versed political machine, to the extent that their anti-gay marriage propaganda points are sometimes used by the tiny.minority of Walloons who oppose progressive legislation on LGBT matters. Precisely because their arguments, although initially religious-based, were adapted to the secular debate. And homophobia in France in a more "respectable" way is allowed to persist.

I don't think the German speaking world saw anything similar.


Anyway a great result regardless!
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parochial boy
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« Reply #370 on: October 08, 2021, 08:10:59 AM »

Some updates. To start with 3 federal level votes on the 28th November:

1. The Justice initiatve. As some context, federal judged are elected by the parliament and are as such judes are partisan and are supposed to represent the parliamentary party strengths. The initiatve would overturn this process, and instead a specialised committee would draw up a shortlist of qualified judges who would then be selected by drawing lots.

2. The "for strong nursing care" initiative. Would introduce a consitutional requirement for the confederation and cantons to ensure the availabiliy and quality of nursing care, including that a sufficient number are trained and that they are appropriately remunerated. This was actually launched pre-covid, context being  - like everywhere in the world - long term issues about working conditions and the lack of people joining the profession

3. Referendum on the Covid law. Because the law was updated to incorporate the legal basis for the vaccine pass, the anti-vax types launched a referendum. So we now having a second referendum, on the same topic, in the same year *thumbs up emoji*


Ueli Maurer and the UDC

Maurer created a big outcry by appearing in the t-shirt of some anti-covid-measures group; and has on various other occasions expressed various sentiments undermining the so called collegiality of te Federal Council. Partly as a consequence of this, a big rumour has sprung up that he is about to resign from the Federal Council. He is almost 71 after all, and appears to have had enough of playing the game rather than appealing to the base.

Assuming this happens would potentially mean an end to the Blocher era on the Federal council, but more importantly, would trigger an election for his replacement. Theoretically, this should mean a straightforward like-for-like replacement by another UDC member, presumably a hardliner. However, as already mentioned - the way the UDC have gone through the Covid crisis, creating fights left, right and centre; as well as the Greens ever louder claims to a seat would open questions as to how straightforward this would be. So expect a bit of fighting, probably not about the UDC losing the seat - yet - but the question as to whether to elect a more moderate figure might potentially raise its head.

On that, also on the 26th of September a set of communal election in Aargau took place. I wouldn't, but these were noteworthy in how badly the UDC did, losing a plethora of seats across the canton. It is noteworthy because it seeminly might be marking a return to the pattern of losses that the UDC were suffering in the run up to 2019 - but which they seemed to have stemmed the tide on recently. Having broadly speaking held up ok in Solothurn and Aargau's cantonal elections over the last 12 months ago. Even they still had been suffering big losses in communal and cantonal elections in Romandie.

In light of the losses, it was mooted that this could be down to a backfiring of party president Marco Chiesa's new "anti-city" rhetoric; the party's elderly electorate being fed up with the coronasceptic declarations; or an especially strong negative vote against Andreas Glarner (the Aargau national councillor famed for his xenophobic comments including telling a Green MP of Kurdish origin to "go home"). Or, as could also be the case, losses in municipal elections could be in part due to other right of cenre voters refusing to lend their votes to UDC candidates precisely for those reasons. The UDC's counter was that it was down to a strong left wing mobilisation in favour of the gay marriage referendum, but the turnout patters in that referendum don't... necessarily reflect that.

Anyway, it seems as this has triggered a big fight again within the party about its direction - but it's actually hard to say how the party is performing at the moment. In some elections it is holding steady, in others it is losing ground - I would say that the cantonal elections in Vaud and Fribourg in the first half of 2022 should give a better indication of where things are at.

PLR leadership

mentioned already, but Thierry Burkart was elected to the presidence of the PLR, marking a potential right shift as he was anti-CO2 law and anti-EU framework agreement. Seems like a roll of the dice in so far as the PLR are the current "in bad shape" party suffering losses across the country. I would say there might be an attempt to position themselves in a more conservative direction so as to avoid falling further into the trap they currently find themselves in as of being a party with no real positions apart from serving the interests of the financial and economic elite.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #371 on: October 15, 2021, 10:54:07 AM »

Some Polling:

From Tamedia for the Referendums:

Justice Initiative:
Yes - 48%
No - 33%

Lots of don't knows because obscure topic

Nursing initiative:
Yes - 82%
No - 11%

Possibly the most one sided poll that I have ever seen... and I still wouldn't bet on it winning, being an initiative and all. Wait till the next polls to make a judgement

Covid Law:
Yes - 63%
No - 35%

66% vaccine coverage. Coincidence?

SRG SSR with Sotomo also have a voting intention poll



changes since 2019 are UDC +1%; PVL +2%; PS -1%; Greens unchanged; PLR -1.5%; Centre -0.5%

These tend to be of... limited use, but the media darlings of the Green Liberals doing well - and the PLR, Centre and Greens all being within half a point of each other will probably ensure the question of Federal Council representation raises its head again.
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« Reply #372 on: October 17, 2021, 07:33:06 PM »

I'm not surprised to see such loopsided support for the nursing initiative. In generel almost everyone is in favour of more nurses.
Once the debate about who pays for that begins the numbers will go down a lot.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #373 on: October 20, 2021, 09:15:32 AM »
« Edited: November 07, 2021, 08:38:43 AM by parochial boy »

Slow day at work, so here is some rambling about the Fribourg cantonal elections on 7th/28th November

Current make up of the Conseil d’état: 3 PDC, 2 PLR, 2 PS

And the parliament is as follows:
Grand Conseil : (110 seats)
PS – 28 seats
PDC – 27 seats
UDC – 21
PLR – 21
Greens – 6
PCS – 4
PVL – 1
Voter associations – 2

About Fribourg

Perhaps not the best known canton, but Fribourg has made some big and famous contributions to Swiss identity, being home to some of the country’s most famous culinary outputs: Gruyère cheese, meringuesm and the Fondue moitié-moitie, in other words the gold standard fondue that is made from two local cheese, vacherin fribourgeois and the already mentioned gruyère. In recent years it has also become home to the nespresso factory in Romont and to Villars chocolate in Fribourg itself, so the tradition lives on.

The canton is bilingual, but like the Valais is becoming increasingly francophone. Between 2000 and 2019 the proportion of French speakers increased from 63% to 69% while German speakers dropped to just 27% of the canton’s population from 30%. This is down to a recurrent phenomenon in the canton’s recent history – a demographic boom, especially in the French speaking Broye district in the north of the canton as well as around the town of Bulle, near Gruyères, that has almost doubled in size since the start of the century - but also down to the increasing francization of the canton’s capital Fribourg, which while officially bilingual, seems to have given up all pretense of being anything other than a monoglot French speaking town (as the name implies, historically it was actually majority German speaking). This demographic boom has made the canton the fastest growing in Switzerland, not down to international  but rather internal migration. Being situated halfway between both Lausanne and Bern and between Zürich and Geneva, it has benefitted from its geographical location, but also attracted large populations of commuters attracted by the lower property prices (and lower taxes than in Neuchâtel as far as the north of the canton is concerned) and proximity to the major economic centres of the Lake Geneva region.

Politically the canton was historically defined as being agricultural and rural (unsurprisingly, the stereotype is of locals who have an extreme aversion to washing…) and ultra-conservative and catholic. It was a member of the Sonderbund, and at the beginning of the 20th century it was dominated by the ultra-conservative Georges Python and his “catholic Christian republic”. One exception to this being the historically Protestant See/Lac district, centred around the town of Morat, which is also one of the few places in the country where the linguistic border becomes genuinely messy. Travelling through it, you jump from French to German and back to French speaking villages seemingly at random; very unlike the immediate hard borders you get in the alps or the Jura mountains.

In any case, demographic changes do what demographic changes do, and the Francophone section of the canton votes increasingly in line with the rest of Romandie. It can be very hard to distinguish the electoral behaviour of rural Fribourg from that of neighbouring Vaud. This is even more so with the university town of Fribourg itself. The university has a particular focus on arts and humanities, and its relative size means that Fribourg is possibly the only town in the country with a genuine “university town feel”, and voting behaviour, which is quite funny given that it was set up by Python with precisely the opposite goal in mind. No surprises then that Fribourg it is one of only three cantons where the PS were the largest party at the 2019 federal elections. Despite the fact the Gruyère in the South, and Broye, Veveyse and Glaâne in the North and West of the canton are still very rural and politically conservative, they all swung massively towards the PS and especially the Greens in 2019 in order to make this happen. Even the German side of the canton, increasingly inclined to function as an exurban region of Bern, is unusually progressive relative to what you’d expect of small town and rural German Switzerland (which isn’t actually very much in reality).

The election
Conseil d’état


Lots of uncertainty this time round, as three incumbents, one from each of the represented parties, are standing down. Meaning – theoretically – three seats up for grabs. Two parties in particular are hoping to benefit from this, the UDC’s Philippe Demierre and Green Sylvie Bonvin-Sansonnens, who would like to restore the 4:3 balance in the government.

Demierre fancies his shot based on a relatively strong profile and good relations with the other bourgeois parties – and pundits reckon he has a good chance. But, the communal elections earlier this year were pretty poor for the UDC, so he would still need to overcome his party’s image problem. Bonvin-Sansonnens on the other hand, has the benefit of standing for a party that had some excellent results in the communal elections, making it on to the executives of the three largest towns of Fribourg, Bulle and Estavayer, as well as strong gains in the federal elections, and the left more generally feel that they should be able to take advantage of their progression in the canton in the spring, and the fact they are currently underrepresented on its executive.

In total 19 candidates standing, includning four some reason 4 UDCs, 2 PVL and a bunch of also rans from minor parties such as the left wing “artists party” and the new-age vaccine sceptic “Direct Democracy, spirituality and nature”. Expect a second round.

Grand Conseil


Will be a fight for the status of largest party between the PS and the Centre. Or more specifically, who will lose less ground. The UDC would like to turn their recent decent poll into actual concrete gains somewhere, while the two ecologist parties will both fancy their chances of making big gains – usual tendancies basically. Being the first cantonal election in quite a while, it is also possibly the first chance to actually assess how things have most in the post-Covid-certificate, summer floods world and all of the rest. Especially in so far as seeing whether the UDC’s “anti-city” rhetoric has had any purchase in the still quite rural districts in the canton’s periphery.

Elsewhere, the soft left PCS, struggling for relevance since the retirement of former national councillor Hugo Fasel, will hope to stop the decline. The PLR will hope not to lose too much an anyone else will just be fighting for the chance to win a sit. It's cantonal politics though, so, pretty low stakes at the end of the day.
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parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #374 on: October 31, 2021, 01:02:50 PM »

First GFS.Bern/SSR polls for the November referendums came out showing basically the same picture as Tamedia. Having said that, every single party has come out against the Justice initiative, so you'd think it's a question of how low they can go at the moment. The nursing initiative also gets some good news as the GreenLiberals have come out in support of it (somewhat surprising), while the Centre have issued a free choice recommendation. Continuing on the vote recommendations, the Aargau SVP - traditionally one of the most notorious hardline local parties - actually came out in favour of the Covid law. What seems to be the case is that the canton's health minister Jean-Pierre Gallati, a traditional hardliner and close ally of the notorious Andreas Glarner, was so horrified by the impact of last Autumn's wave on the canton's hospital system that he has completely come on board with the federal council line. A similar story actually, with Natalie Rickli, another hardliner who has also been very much swayed by her experience as Zürich's health minister into vividly opposing the party's line of Covid news.

Elsewhere, in the continuing framework agreement fall out, the Greens and Operation Libero have announced they will launch a pro-EU initiative, which could extend to requesting Switzerland join the EU.

Finally, it has also been confirmed that from the 1st January, Switzerland will introduce Gender self identification, where transpeople will be able to simply change their legal gender with their communal authorities. The law was actually voted through parliament at the same time as Gay Marriage bill in December last year - with only the SVP and about a third of the Christian Democrat group voting against. As no referendum was launched against the bill (something of a feat in a country where even minor local building projects get referendumed), it was confirmed this week that the bill will be put in to law. In that respect, Switzerland will be the 13th country in the world, and 8th in Europe to take the step. Or a rare case of the Swiss actually being ahead of the curve on progressive social legislation.
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