Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December

[parochial boy]

Anyway, it's now confirmed. The referendum on the legalisation of gay marriage (including access to artificial insemination for lesbian couples) will take place on the 26th of September.

It will be joined by the Juso's "99% initiative", which would tax revenues generated from capital (ie dividends, interest) at 150% the rate at which revenues generated from work are taxed.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It will be joined by the Juso's "99% initiative", which would tax revenues generated from capital (ie dividends, interest) at 150% the rate at which revenues generated from work are taxed.

Will you vote for this?

[parochial boy]

It will be joined by the Juso's "99% initiative", which would tax revenues generated from capital (ie dividends, interest) at 150% the rate at which revenues generated from work are taxed.

Will you vote for this?

Definitely, although it's really not as radical as presented, as it still doesn't bring in a genuine tax on capital gains/capital that should exist. In any case, it doesn't have a hope in hell because of the all encompassing "IT WILL CRASH THE ECONOMY!!!" tag line and because it is a pretty compllicated topic that is very easily misrepresented. I have already seen it described as a "150% tax rate on dividends and interest" which is... absolutely not what the proposition is.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It will be joined by the Juso's "99% initiative", which would tax revenues generated from capital (ie dividends, interest) at 150% the rate at which revenues generated from work are taxed.

Will you vote for this?

Definitely, although it's really not as radical as presented, as it still doesn't bring in a genuine tax on capital gains/capital that should exist. In any case, it doesn't have a hope in hell because of the all encompassing "IT WILL CRASH THE ECONOMY!!!" tag line and because it is a pretty compllicated topic that is very easily misrepresented. I have already seen it described as a "150% tax rate on dividends and interest" which is... absolutely not what the proposition is.

That's what I thought it was when I first read it (I re-read it and realised it wasn't).

[mileslunn]

Gay marriage I suspect will pass and considering almost all Western European countries allow it, makes sense.  The capital gains and dividends is silly as most countries tax them at lower not higher rate.  If people are concerned rich not paying enough taxes, better to raise top income tax rate, which if you combine canton and municipal, is on average (some exceptions like Geneva) well below that of its neighbors.  Average top rate in Switzerland is 34%, while Austria is 55%, Germany 47.5%, Italy 44-47% depending on region and municipality while France is 45%, but 55% if you include CSG Charges, which are for all intensive purposes a tax.  So it would make more sense to maybe raise top rate so average combined is in low 40s which would be higher than now, but still lower than most Western European countries.  And perhaps like Denmark maybe have a tax ceiling so those in higher taxed municipalities like Geneva don't get too high, I would suggest 45% or 50% at tops for tax ceiling.

For dividends, reason they are taxed lower is already taxed at corporate level.  Australian method where one pays the difference is most logical.  For capital gains, there is inflation never mind highly mobile.  Where I live in Canada, capital gains are taxed at 50% of regular income rate (not 50% overall, but half whatever income tax rate) is and most of Western Europe I noticed on balance is pretty close to half whatever top marginal rate is.

[Good Habit]

The capital gains and dividends is silly as most countries tax them at lower not higher rate. 

Well, it's not about capital gains, those still remain free of tax for private citizens.. (Although, Switzerland has a moderate wealth tax - and with increasing wealth, you might pay more of that...)

[parochial boy]

It's also nearly meaningless to try and work out an average tax rate for the country as a whole in any case. Assuming you are middle class family struggling by on a meagre million francs a year, the effective tax rate you pay will vary by a factor of 5 depending on whether you live in Ausserschwyz or in the Jura.

Even if you want to try an "average" tax rate - all of Suisse Primitive has risibly low tax rates.  That's 5 out of 26 cantons, but barely 4% of the population, but a much larger portion of the millionaires. And that's before even talking about the forfaits fiscaux which are the real way that foreign billionaires come to avoid paying tax on their income earned outside of Switzerland...

With that in mind, spare a thought for the wealthy expats who move to Schwyz for the low tax rates and then discover to their horror how trollishly xenophobic the locals are

[parochial boy]

Not especially important news - but I'm posting it, because I've ranted about it other threads before, and it brings me joy to compare us to our reactionary western neighbours. Anyway, French Swiss schools have decided that they will begin teaching the reformed (ie simplified) French spelling, as well as to introduce and encourage "elements of gender neutral  language". As in, stark contrast the the French banning it - and proof number 465 that French Switzerland is now actually a wholly more progressive place than France is. What a world we live in.

In other news - the referendums are on Sunday. It's looking pretty grim for the CO2 law, down to a bad turnout in the cities, or, more accurately, a bigger turnout in right wing rural areas. Principally down to the emotion over the agricultural initiatives in the countryside, whereas the campaign has gone completely under the radar in the cities. I've only started seeing posters in the last week or so. Which, considering when people usually vote here, is about the equivalent of starting an electoral campaign on election day in any other country.

Finally, the framework agreement got cancelled - generating a huge outcry. I've no desire to dwell on it, but it is principally a huge political failure on the part of the Federal Council - who went and negotiated the thing without input from the social partners, and so only discovered their concerns with it once it was already too late. Also, Ignacio Cassis being out of his depth, that is noteworthy too. Since then, there has been a huge reaction about how to save it - the PS are now talking about applying for membership of the EU, others are discussung an initiative to join the EEA. And the UDC want another initiative against the SRG-SSR (public broadcaster), who they claim are biased. Despite the fact we already had a vote on the same thing - three - years ago which the UDC lost by a 50 point margin. Always new and innovative solutions to important and pressing issues with them.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Not especially important news - but I'm posting it, because I've ranted about it other threads before, and it brings me joy to compare us to our reactionary western neighbours. Anyway, French Swiss schools have decided that they will begin teaching the reformed (ie simplified) French spelling

How is onion spelt under this?

[parochial boy]

Not especially important news - but I'm posting it, because I've ranted about it other threads before, and it brings me joy to compare us to our reactionary western neighbours. Anyway, French Swiss schools have decided that they will begin teaching the reformed (ie simplified) French spelling

How is onion spelt under this?

It's the 1990 reform - so mostly means removing the redundant circonflexe from words like flûte and îlot. But yes, it does include the option to write "ognon". No-one is going to be penalised for using the old spellings though, so it's all thoroughly acceptable in practice.

And when you consider that the Swiss Germans straight out went and deleted the eszett from their spelling nearly a hundred year ago, it's not all that radical in comparison.

Edit - if you are particularly nerdy, the full list of new spellings is available here

[beesley]

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics/vote-results--june-13-2021-switzerland-co2-pesticides/46631396

Results are in - a Swiss voter can elaborate further, but the three environmental referendums (a popular initiative on clean drinking water and healthy food, a popular initiative on banning pesticides and a vote on the CO2 act) were all rejected, while the votes on the COVID-19 Act and the Counter-Terrorism Provisions were carried. The CO2 act vote was the closest.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Basel-Stadt only voted with the rest of the country on the COVID-19 Act, but was on the losing side on the other four.

[parochial boy]

Broadly speaking, the CO2 law failed because it ran an appaling emotionless and complacent campaign that didn't realise things were going wrong until too late. While the massive reaction against the two agricultural initiatives outside of the cities helped drag the CO2 law down - in part due to a massive turnout in the countryside against the two initiatives compared to a sluggish one in the cities, but also because of the CO2 law getting tarred by the same brush and dragged down by its association with the other two extremely unpopular proposals.

The two initiatives and the other two referendums went the way as expected, although probably slightly closer than would have been expected in all cases.

A lot of the maps on the face of it look pretty weird - but the overall picture is an much, much starker than usual urban-rural divide that overrides other normal patterns (the results in Romandie are particularly stark in that respect). Although special mention of the Engadine, which seems to be having some sort of inexplicable progressive turn at the moment.

Basel-Stadt also introduces a 21chf (~$23) an hour minimum wage. The 5th canton to do so, and first in German Switzerland.

[CumbrianLefty]

Broadly speaking, the CO2 law failed because it ran an appaling emotionless and complacent campaign that didn't realise things were going wrong until too late.

This really does sound *horribly* familiar......

[parochial boy]

Little bump - Petra Gössi has announced she is standing down as leader of the PLR. Obviously the party are in a bad way at the moment and all, but the noteworthy thing is that this is coming in the light of the CO2 law being rejected. The PLR had supported the law, largely down to Gössi pushing the party to a more climate friendly position in the light of the school strikes back in 2019. Obviously that was met with scepticism at the time, and seems to have been a crushing failure based on, well, last week. She insistst she was already decided and it's nothing to do with the referendum. Just coincidental timing is all.

In other news, the Jusos (PS youth wing) have announced they are launching a new, shall we say somewhat radical, popular initiative "make the rich pay for climate change". If passed, it would make it illegal for a Swiss resident to possess a wealth exceeding 100 million francs.

Stuff like this is, shall we say, why the PS are little bit different to other SocDem parties.

[parochial boy]

Because it's quite rare to have this sort of thing - here is some polling of approval of the Federal Councillors (marked out of 6, because that is how school grades work here - 6 being the best)



The two Socialists poll the best; followed by the two UDC (solid recovery for Parmelin who is widely considered to be having quite a good presdential year); then Amherd the Christian Democrat; and the two liberals at the bottom - Ignazio Cassis in particular continues to be seen as, basically, completely useless.

This will never actually turn into voting intention of any sort - the only real thing to take from it is that Alain Berset (only 2% don't know) has actually managed to become a household name. Which is probably the first time ever a Federal Councillor has actually done that.

[Alcibiades]

Because it's quite rare to have this sort of thing - here is some polling of approval of the Federal Councillors (marked out of 6, because that is how school grades work here - 6 being the best)



The two Socialists poll the best; followed by the two UDC (solid recovery for Parmelin who is widely considered to be having quite a good presdential year); then Amherd the Christian Democrat; and the two liberals at the bottom - Ignazio Cassis in particular continues to be seen as, basically, completely useless.

This will never actually turn into voting intention of any sort - the only real thing to take from it is that Alain Berset (only 2% don't know) has actually managed to become a household name. Which is probably the first time ever a Federal Councillor has actually done that.

There seems to be a pretty strong correlation between popularity and how well-known they are.

[parochial boy]

Because it's quite rare to have this sort of thing - here is some polling of approval of the Federal Councillors (marked out of 6, because that is how school grades work here - 6 being the best)



The two Socialists poll the best; followed by the two UDC (solid recovery for Parmelin who is widely considered to be having quite a good presdential year); then Amherd the Christian Democrat; and the two liberals at the bottom - Ignazio Cassis in particular continues to be seen as, basically, completely useless.

This will never actually turn into voting intention of any sort - the only real thing to take from it is that Alain Berset (only 2% don't know) has actually managed to become a household name. Which is probably the first time ever a Federal Councillor has actually done that.

There seems to be a pretty strong correlation between popularity and how well-known they are.

That makes sense in a way. The principle criticism of Cassis is that he doesn't do anything; Amherd and Keller-Suter are sort of like generic federal councillors, so kind of anonymous in practice. While the other four all have a specific appeal: Berset has a sort of cult meme popularity; Sommaruga is popular with the left; Maurer is popular with the right; and Parmlin has a sort of easy going, bumbling yokel appeal.

[parochial boy]

First polls for the September referendums are here:

On the Gay Marriage

Tamedia have -
65% Yes
34% No

Whie SSR SRG/GFS.Bern have
69% Yes
29% No

I don't think a referendum has ever lost 15% over the course of a campaign, especialy one that is so high profile even in advance. So it looks fairly safe shall we say.

RTS have highlighted some interesting crosstabs here. Notably by religion - big support among the non-religious unsurprisingly, but also among mainstream protestants and Catholics. The big "other christian communities" No is down the the Free Churches, who are broadly equivalent to US evangelicals and have been mentioned before; and rather notable is the 78% support among "non-Christians". Consider that this is a group that is largely Muslim.

The 99% initiative is at:

Tamedia - 45% Yes, 49% No

SRG/GFS - 46% Yes, 45% No

Heading towards a big no, as is the case with anything with the Juso brand attached, but it's still mediocre start. Aim is probably to beat the 25-30% or so that the Young Liberals' recent initiatives have been getting, so as to show there is still more support for radical left wing policies than libertarianism. RTS's crosstabs are also interesting here - unsurprisingly there is a huge correlation with income (and age according to Tamedia), where younger and poorer means more support. Surprisingly though, there also appears to be very little of a rural-urban gap according to either poster - even though this has been held up as the political divide in recent weeks (more on that later).

Linguistic divides on both votes are as expected, but not especially stark. Overall all though, interesting to note a continuation of the theme that has developed recently of GFS showing more left wing polling results than Tamedia. GFS source their panels from the public broadcaster, while Tamedia get theirs from the Tamedia newspapers - which include the left of centre daily the Tages-Anzeiger, but also a host of local papers and the "officially non-partisan, but lots of articles about Kosovans if you know what I mean" free paper 20 Minutes/20 Minuten.

Tamedia details and GFS.Bern ones.

PLR leadership

As mentioned, I think, Petra Gössi resigned as leader of the Liberals effective end of this year. The problem was, as with the UDC earlier, nobody wanted the job to replace her. Some rando St Gallen National Councillor whose name I forget offered to stand with a "Romande woman", meaning Jacqueline de Quattro or Johanna Gapany, but both declined, so went back to the drawing board.

Eventually Aargau Ständerat Thierry Burkhard stepped up and offered to take the role, and so will become next president. Burkhard is very much the right wing of the party - anti EU framework agreement and againt the CO2 law. Which puts us in the interesting position of having now particularly radical leaderships of both the Socialists and the PLR. Might benefit the Centre, but I suspect the GreenLiberals are rubbing their hands in anticipation at the moment.

Marco Chiesa doesn't like cities
The other big controversy was UDC leader (and former banker - is this relevant?) Marco Chiesa's 1st of August (national holiday) speech, in which he notably accused the big cities of being "parasites" in support of "luxury socialism" at the expense of the hard working, salt of the earth etc, etc...

This is obviously a continuation of the huge rural-urban divide that emerged over the agricultural iniatiatives and CO2 law, which the UDC have pounced on as their route back to success after the recent years' series of defeats. The logic being obviously, now that yelling about foreigners is a less lucrative route, yelling about the alleged disdain and snobbishness of those progressives in urban Switzerland will win them favour among the car dependent and somewhat more culturally and economically conservative countryside.

The problem is though, that Switzerland isn't America - the number of places that can truly be described as rural is pretty minimal, and the population overwhelmingly lives in the "agglomerations" of the big 5 cities, and obviously rather depends on their success. Adding to that, "progressive" Switzerland no longer just means the Zurichs and Genevas, as even middle sized town - in particular in French Switzerland, but increasingly found on the German side in the likes of Baden, Aarau or Chur, have increasingly taken to voting like the cities, electing left wing governments and supporting progressive referendums. It would be hard to accuse thes 20-30'000 strong towns of being "cities" while maintaining a straight face, shall we put it that way.

And even then, if the rural-urban divide was unusually stark in June, it was just that, unusual because the topics were ones where that divide was particularly relevant. That doesn't actually stop the like of Jura of being on the whole politically progressive (they voted over 80% in favour of an initiative on reducing the gender pay gap on literally the same day), and it doesn't stamp out the often pretty major cultural differences you get between rural areas in Switzerland.

Fribourg’s also got a cantonal election and special election to the conseil des états coming up, to replace ex-PS president Christian Levrat. So I’ll write something about that if I remember to.

[Lechasseur]

I'd assume that the gay marriage referendum will succeed, but what's the polling looking like at the moment?

[parochial boy]

Between 65-70% in favour at the moment. GFS were reporting a high level of opinion formation already, so in all likelihood it winds up somewhere in that region. Right now, the opposition campaign is focussing rather heavily on the sperm donation for lesbian couples side of the law, rather than the principle of marriage for all in and of itself. So we'll see if that argument takes.

[parochial boy]

New polling from Tamedia this morning, with movement on the first wave:

Mariage for all
Yes - 66% (+1%)
No - 33% (-1%)

99% initiative
Yes - 40% (-5%)
No - 55% (+6%)

Pretty much expected, the 99% initiative probably heading towards a score in the low 30s at the moment. One in four agree with the "a child needs a mother and father" argument (let's ban divorce in that case?). That implies that the decision to focus the No campaign around the sperm donation for lesbian couples is probably not landing well enough to put the final result in doubt, even if it probably is having a noticeable impact on the support. In particular the fact that the Centre are divded on the question and the UDC's opposition to the law probably wouldn't have been possible without the sperm donation argument.

tabs

[parochial boy]

Got this delightful piece in the post today:



Translates as something like "children to order?" and the inside is a load of barely disguised homophobia as well as the false claim that the law is against the constitution. Nastiest piece of political advertising I have seen in a while to be honest.

In other news, Fribourg's cantonal election is in November (with municipal ones in October - busy calendar), but the first round of the special election to the conseil des états is on the 26th, as with the referendums. Likely only round too, as there are only two candidates involved.

The election is going on because former PS president Christian Levrat is stepping down to head the Post Office  and will opposed the Centre's Isabelle Chassot and PS's Carl-Alex Ridoré.

Chassot is an ex-Conseillère d'état of the canton and hopes to win back the seat lost by Beat Vonlanthen lost in October and that the Christian Democrats had held since, well since the Conseil des états has existed.Ridoré is the current prefect of the Sarine district (which includes the lefty university town of Fribourg and about a third of the canton's population) and would, if elected, become the first black senator to ever be elected.

That said, I suspect that Chassot wins as she would hope to get the support of the entire Fribourgeois right, while the left - even with the Green Liberals has an electoral force of maybe up to about 40-45%. Too many Germans you see. To add to that, Levrat was a guy with a very strong local profile, originally from the Gruyère and with a pronounced local accent. In contrast, Ridoré is a more academic (a doctor in law) profile (although a fairly thick Fribourg accent as well). Athough that said, Levrat's predecessor was now Federal Councillor Alain Berset, an academic economist who went on to become the most popular politician in the country - the degree to which Fribourg is "rural" is somewhat overrated and increasingly inaccurate. Big shoes to fill though if he does get elected.

[parochial boy]

There's context*, but the Young SVP passionately denouncing racism against the Albanian community. One of the stranger things to come out of the Covid pandemic.


*part of the context is that UDC's most hated politician is now Zürich Regierungsrating Natalie Rickli, of the UDC herself, who among other things, has claimed that anybody refusing to be vaccinated should be forced to sign an injuction renouncing the right to hospital treatment in the case they get sick. She also canceled an Albanian music festival, for Covid reasons. It's a car crash, but quite a funny one

[parochial boy]

More poster controversy, the No to marriage equality came out with this one:



which translates as "Children with a dead person".

The proclaimed rationale is that they are against the idea of lesbian couples accessing sperm donated by someone who is now deceased in order to have children (which is apparently not a problem when heterosexual couples do it? I am not sure I understand).

Anyway, it variously appears that most people have rather missed this point, and understood the poster as claiming that homosexuals want to engage in necrophilia. Whether or not that was deliberate? who knows.

Cue predictable outcry, and in particular the town of Kriens announced that it would take all of said posters down. Kriens being an industrial suburb of Lucerne - and even if mildly left of the country as a whole - absolutely not a bastion of bobo, luxury-socialism (a CVP Stadtpräsident, being canton Lucerne). Remains to be seen whether the backlash has any voting intention impact - last polling from both pollsters should be coming out mid-next week.

[parochial boy]

SSR and Tamedia keeping up their traditions of releasng final polling together

Marriage equality
GFS.Bern/SSR SRG:
Yes - 63% (-6%)
No - 35% (+6)

Tamedia:
Yes - 67% (+1%)
No - 32% (-1%)

99% Initiative
GFS.Bern/SSR SRG:
Yes - 37% (-11%)
No - 57% (+12%)

Tamedia:
Yes - 34% (-6%)
No - 63% (+8%)

The final initiative polling tends to be pretty accurate, as the No trends are always so predictable. Referendum polling is a bit trickier, especially in cases like this where the pollsters have showed opposite trends - but in any case, the only suspense in the margin of victory, not the end result