Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December

[parochial boy]

So, I hear there is some other election going on today, but second round of Tamedia polling astonishingly has support for the multinationales responsables holding steady - almost unheard of for an initiative:

Konzernverantwortungsinitiative
Yes - 57% (nc!)
No - 42% (+1%)

Including 50% saying "definite yes", indicating that the opinion formation is already well developed. Back on the cards?

Financing of war materials
Yes - 51% (-1%)
No - 46% (+1%)

[Lord Halifax]

Financing of war materials
Yes - 51% (-1%)
No - 46% (+1%)

Is that a ban on Swiss banks/financial institutions financing the purchase of war materials?

[parochial boy]

Financing of war materials
Yes - 51% (-1%)
No - 46% (+1%)

Is that a ban on Swiss banks/financial institutions financing the purchase of war materials?

It would ban the Swiss National Bank, the state and pension funds from holding investments in companies that make over 5% of their revenue from selling any war materials - either directly or indirectly (ie suppliers or funds). So UBS and Credit Suisse would still be able to; although theoretically the initiative would also require the government to "work towards" banning (non-public sector) banks and insurers from holding those investments.

[parochial boy]

Resulst from the second round in Jura. David Eray winds up fairly comfortably fifth, meaning that the governing majority will stay on the centre-left. Image from RTS

[parochial boy]

Another survey from GFS.Zurich showing that a bare majority of just 82% of Swiss people support the introduction of gay marriage, including two out of three of UDC voters, and just 70% in support of lesbian couples being able to access fertility treatment.

Obviously with such, *cough* close numbers it makes perfect sense as to why the Conseil des États has been sitting on their arses on this subject for *checks notes* 7 (seven) years.

[Estrella]

Another survey from GFS.Zurich showing that a bare majority of just 82% of Swiss people support the introduction of gay marriage, including two out of three of UDC voters, and just 70% in support of lesbian couples being able to access fertility treatment.

Obviously with such, *cough* close numbers it makes perfect sense as to why the Conseil des États has been sitting on their arses on this subject for *checks notes* 7 (seven) years.

Kinda weird that no one managed to bring it to a referendum yet.

[parochial boy]

Another survey from GFS.Zurich showing that a bare majority of just 82% of Swiss people support the introduction of gay marriage, including two out of three of UDC voters, and just 70% in support of lesbian couples being able to access fertility treatment.

Obviously with such, *cough* close numbers it makes perfect sense as to why the Conseil des États has been sitting on their arses on this subject for *checks notes* 7 (seven) years.

Kinda weird that no one managed to bring it to a referendum yet.

Oh it will go to a referendum, it just needs to get through parliament first. Once the bill passes the protestant taliban UDF have already made it clear that they will challenge it to one, and probably won't have too much difficulty getting the 50'000.

No-one has started an initiative for it because it's already been raised as a bill in parliament (you know, seven years ago) - and initiatives are normally reserved for things that either fail the parliamentary route or never had any chance anyway. This one will get passed, it's just that the Christian Democrats are dragging their feet on it because they're torn between the Alpine Catholics (who elect their senators) and their "centrist" posturing. Getting parliament to pass a bill is a much more likely (and *usually"* quicker) way to get something made law.

[parochial boy]

A, for some reason, voting intention poll from Sotomo and SSR SRG



Changes on the Federal election are:

UDC: -1.5%
PS: nc
PLR: nc
Greens: -1.0%
PDC: +0.5%
GreenLiberals: 2%
PEV: +0.5%
PBD: -0.5%

Hard to say how likely this is, GLP gains seem in line with the cantonal electio; but kind of strange that the Greens are losing while the PLR and PS are holding steady, which contradicts the cantonals somewhat. Although that said, these elctions have been 2015/16 repeats, so potentially not so easy to compare to 2019. Polling often tends to underestimate swings that do happen too - so GLP could be up more than a couple of points. That score is the UDC's lowest since the 1990s.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So more Swiss people approve of same-sex marriage than Americans? And there is a bill which has been sitting there for seven years? Lmao

[CumbrianLefty]

So more Swiss people approve of same-sex marriage than Americans? And there is a bill which has been sitting there for seven years? Lmao

So who is actually blocking it?

[parochial boy]

The Conseil des États, is at the moment, they were going to vote on it in May, but then delayed it further because they needed time for more "consultation".

It was actually passed earlier by the Conseil National earlier in the year after sitting on it for years, and now the upper chamber is sitting on it because the overrepresentation of the small, rural cantons means the chamber always tends to be more conservative than the country as a whole. They just decided the other day that it could be passed via a law rather than a constitutional amendment the other day, which should speed up the process, but ultimately just amounts to kicking the can down the road a bit further.

(plus there are some factors like the parliament is officially amateur and only sits a few times a year, big reforms always get held up for years in the committees because there isn't an executive pushing forward its policy agenda like you get in most other countries )

The stereotype about the Swiss being slow is unfortunately very accurate when it comes to the parliamentary process.

[parochial boy]

Final polling before the 29th coming from both Tamedia and SRG SSR/GFS.Bern

The SSR have

Multinationales Responsables at 57% (-6%) Yes to 41% (+8%) No
War materials at 50% (-4%) Yes to 45% (+4%) No

Tamedia are saying

Multinationales Responsables at 51% (-6%) Yes to 48% (+6%) No
War materials at 41% (-10%) Yes to 58% (+12%) No

As the responsible business vote is looking like it could be close, there has been a far amount of attention paid, in particular by the no Campaign, to the second part of a popular initiative. That is, the need to win both a majority of the vote and of the cantons; specifically 12 of the 20 full and 6 half cantons.

What that means is a search for, well, swing states - not necessarily those that will be closest to 50-50, but those that will have arouns the 12th highest Yes vote, because if you convince them to vote No, you've won.

It's not typically a subject that comes up, as initiatives are usually expected to fail - and the winning ones in recent years have either been unusual in their nature (eg the corporate pay one which swept the board everywhere) or UDS ones (minarets etc...), where there is a natural advantage in the numerous small right wing cantons. This time though, the focus has been on German Switzerland, with the No campaign largely giving up hope of winning in Romandie, excepting the two more Conservative cantons of Fribourg and Valais. More interesting though are those other cantons that can vote close to the national average (or slightly right), or which can be more erratic in their behave. So to get over the line, the initiative would probably need all the bankers as well as 3 out of the ones that have been pinpointed as being the swing cantons - which has meant places like Solothurn, Ticino, Schaffhausen and Graubunden all being hotly fought over.

[Estrella]

Seeing the surprisingly intense campaign for this vote, how does financing of campaigns and political parties work in Switzerland? American-style anarchy would seem to be a characteristically Swiss solution (definitely not related to the stereotypes about Switzerland and money, not at all), but in what seems to be a very politically disengaged country, I'm not sure if that's a viable way.

[parochial boy]

No, the stereotype hold up here. There are almost no rules in place at the federal level. And of course, like all good issues, this means that there is a referendum on the subject on the way.

One party in particular, guess which one, you'll be astonished, absolutely astonished, runs into regular controversy about its funding - in particular a rather opaque fund in, of course, Zug - whose source is a complete mystery. The shock of a party using a tax haven in order to finance its efforts to ensure the tax haven is able to stay a tax haven. Ha.

Add to this, you have a major role played by lobbyists - because parliamentarians are "officially" amateur - but obviously still need to earn their bread. So, Isabelle Chevalley, a Green Liberal Conseilllère Nationale recently ran into trouble because her (against the party line) opposition to the multinationals initiative turned out to be make a lot more sense when it was discovered that she is an "advisor" to the President of Burkina Faso, and in possession of a burkinabé diplomatic passport.

 This plays into the traditional role of what are called the organisations faitières industry/interest group lobbies (eg the USS - trade unionists; economiesuisse - big businesses; USAM - small businesses; Santé Suisse - health insurers; but also non-industry organisations like Pro-Tell - pro-guns; Pro-Juventute - pro-kids and so on...). All of these play a big active role in particular in taking positions and campaigning actively on referendums, and are often headed by and strongly linked to parliamentarians.

In short, it's a pretty intricate and opaque web, that is often held up as being the major problem in Swiss democracy. Hence the initiative.

I wouldn't say that the Swiss are politically disengaged though. People tend to look at turnouts and think stuff like " oh, only 40%?" but that's not really how it works. There is a substantial level of reseach that indicates that in a given year, about 80% of people will vote at least once. About 30% always do, and about one in two people pick on choose when to participate based on what particular issues interest them. Bare in mind that in a given year, you are likely to be faced with 20 or more different referendum questions to vote on, and in all likelyhood two rounds of Communal, Cantonal or Federal elections to add to that.

That's a lot of voting, so unsurprisingly people just don't pay attention to everything, it's not disinterest, it's just - do I really have the time and energy to inform myself on "do you approve of the granting of a credit of 3m to refurbish the municipal theatre of *random suburb*?". I mean, I'm interested in politics, almost always vote, but am not going to go out of my way to find out about the ins and outs of that particular issues.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So basically Swiss politics is a good approximation of what American politics would look like with proportional representation?

In addition to the campaign finance stuff, I know no other countries with so many referendum questions/ballot initiatives/etc. popping up at every electoral cycle. Am I wrong?

Also trolololol at the shadowy UDC funding... the perfect definition of "unsurprising"

[parochial boy]

Well, the Swiss 1848 constitution was modelled explicitely on the US one. Which makes sense as the US was basically the only other vauguely sort of democratic looking regime at the time. Except the Swiss one took in loads of provisions to manage the various societal cleavages (language, religion, rural/urban...). For example the 7 presidents thing. And the Swiss have also been far less reticient about modifying the constitution - the current one was actually brought in in 1999 as the 1873 one (and 1848 before it) had been modified so often that they were essentially unreadable.

The US referendum system was then pretty explicitely modelled on the Swiss one. Which is a nice circle I guess. Although the Americans don't have federal level ones, and not every state has the full gamut of obligatory referendum/ facultative referendum / initiative as exists in Switzerland - so votes here tend to be higher stakes than in the US.

So yeah, there is quite a lot of both our systems that are directly based on the other one. Although still a very different political culture. Less polarisation for a start. But Switzerland is still fundamentally a European country in its political norms and procedures and public attitudes. Like, for all the "libertarian paradise" stereotype, there is still a much more well developed welfare state in Switzerland than the US has.

[CumbrianLefty]

Like, for all the "libertarian paradise" stereotype, there is still a much more well developed welfare state in Switzerland than the US has.

Tbf that seems to come mostly from those who think "libertarianism" means a free for all on guns and not much else.

[parochial boy]

And now it's official. The Christian Democrats are dead, long live the Centre.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

And now it's official. The Christian Democrats are dead, long live the Centre.

What happened?

Also you are late, I mean, your southern neighbours (oh hai) arrived there almost twenty-seven years ago.

[parochial boy]

And now it's official. The Christian Democrats are dead, long live the Centre.

What happened?

Also you are late, I mean, your southern neighbours (oh hai) arrived there almost twenty-seven years ago.

They approved the name change and the fusion with the BDP - so the latter dissapear from the political landscape and the other no longer mention Christian in their name.

And our politics are way too boring to ever have anything like mani pulite...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

And now it's official. The Christian Democrats are dead, long live the Centre.

What happened?

Also you are late, I mean, your southern neighbours (oh hai) arrived there almost twenty-seven years ago.

They approved the name change and the fusion with the BDP - so the latter dissapear from the political landscape and the other no longer mention Christian in their name.

And our politics are way too boring to ever have anything like mani pulite...

I see. Long live the Centre indeed.

Good for your politics then as the direct aftermath to mani pulite was Berlusconi...

[palandio]

It seems like the 'Responsible Multinationals' initiative will come very close to 50% in the popular vote but that it will fail anyways due to the canton vote. Many of the "swing cantons" rejected the initiative by close margins:
Basel-Landschaft 47.5% Yes
Schaffhausen 47.2% Yes
Glarus 47.1% Yes (Surprisingly high, maybe the effect of BDP (now Center) leader Landolt supporting it)
Graubünden 45.8% Yes
Valais/Wallis 44.7% Yes
Solothurn 43.8% Yes
Appenzell-Außerrhoden 43.5% Yes
Aargau 43.1% Yes
Uri 41.5% Yes

Populist Ticino actually voted 54.2%, but it will be alone with Genève, Vaud, Neuchâtel, Jura, Basel-Stadt, Zurich and perhaps Fribourg and Bern for 8.5 canton votes at most, when 12 would be needed.

[parochial boy]

Result coming in right now. Seems like we're heading to that situation in the multinationales responsables. A clear majority of the cantons saying no, but based on the current Tamedia/LeeWas projection, a bare majority of 50,4% the population voting Yes. Ouch.

Absolutely huge Röstigraben too, this time - 60%+ Yes votes in most of Romandie (Jura at 69% yes, it's just too beautiful for this country ) and only to German cantons voting Yes. Ticino voting Yes too; it's not right wing the way people think it is

Current maps on the RTS liveticker

The war material vote seems to be going down ~43%-57%, which is a pretty solid score all things considered

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Result coming in right now. Seems like we're heading to that situation in the multinationales responsables. A clear majority of the cantons saying no, but based on the current Tamedia/LeeWas projection, a bare majority of 50,4% the population voting Yes. Ouch.

Absolutely huge Röstigraben too, this time - 60%+ Yes votes in most of Romandie (Jura at 69% yes, it's just too beautiful for this country ) and only to German cantons voting Yes. Ticino voting Yes too; it's not right wing the way people think it is

Current maps on the RTS liveticker

The war material vote seems to be going down ~43%-57%, which is a pretty solid score all things considered

Ticinese #populism

Fick small German cantons for overturning the "Latin alliance" majority.

[parochial boy]

It seems like the 'Responsible Multinationals' initiative will come very close to 50% in the popular vote but that it will fail anyways due to the canton vote. Many of the "swing cantons" rejected the initiative by close margins:
Basel-Landschaft 47.5% Yes
Schaffhausen 47.2% Yes
Glarus 47.1% Yes (Surprisingly high, maybe the effect of BDP (now Center) leader Landolt supporting it)
Graubünden 45.8% Yes
Valais/Wallis 44.7% Yes
Solothurn 43.8% Yes
Appenzell-Außerrhoden 43.5% Yes
Aargau 43.1% Yes
Uri 41.5% Yes

Populist Ticino actually voted 54.2%, but it will be alone with Genève, Vaud, Neuchâtel, Jura, Basel-Stadt, Zurich and perhaps Fribourg and Bern for 8.5 canton votes at most, when 12 would be needed.

That is the logical and most likely explanation, but, and I'll probably look in more detail a bit later - Glarus is an old industrial powerhouse; and it does seem as if the initiative has overperformed in some of the more industrial/working class regions. For example, Appenzell Ausserhoden (especially the Vorderland district), Thurgau and St Gallen all basically matching Aargau/Solothurn/Lucerne (the latter of which is generally viewed as trending left); and well to the left of Zug (home of Glencore, but also highly educated, usually goodish for the Greens...). Same with the downright impressive Yes vote in the watchmaking regions across the entire Jura mountain range, and all the Yes votes in both the Limmattal, but rather more surprisinngly the Zürcher Oberland and the Thun district in Bern, which have moved sharply right in recent decades.

In most other respects, it is an entirely predictable map right down to the municipal level. The fact that the likes of Schwyz and Obwalden were being mooted as swing cantons is bizarre in retrospect, although it was pretty bizarre at the time too.

Tages-Anzeiger have pretty cool maps of results by municipality, which is paywalled unfortunately - but the RTS have this rather less attractive one, but that does the trick.