Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December

[parochial boy]

Immigration initiative seems interesting, almost same as what many Brexiters wanted, which is end of free mobility.  I could be wrong but guessing like Brexit, probably big age gap with idea being most popular amongst seniors while least popular amongst younger voters.  If it loses badly that may put the end to other countries talking about this.

Judging by the polling crosstabs there is a small age gap, but more typically European in that the highest support is amongst 40/50 somethings rather than the old. 35% support implies a pretty big rejection across all of society though, which the crosstabs tend to indicate.

Personally I'm just a bit resentful that this question keeps coming back. It's like the 4th time in the last 20 years, and about the 10th in all, that some variant of this initiative has turned up - and the immigration sceptics have won once. You'd think that would get the message across in itself, but I suspect the UDC are already working on their next question in the hope that the political context is a bit more favourable in 2026 or whenever.

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1307197380815712256

Not surprising really, but funny that there isn't much of a linguistic gap. Martullo-Blocher is still wearing one I see, which is at least consistent with her earlier position when she created a controversy back in March by turning up with one.

In other news, the Greens fell out with the climate strikers this week when they supported a law that was supposed to make Switzerland carbon neutral by 2030, or 40 or something. I forget. Anyway, the Climate Strike movement deemed this too slow, leaving new leader Balthasar Glättli to have do desperately explain that the Greens weren't actually in power and therefore didn't have the ability to decide this sort of thing by themselves.

The UDC also released a strange video in support of the anti-immigration initiative with a municipal councillor complaining that she didn't hear anyone speaking Swiss German on the train anymore. Which is true, when I get the train between Geneva and Lausanne, I never, ever hear any Swiss-German. What is this country coming to?

[parochial boy]

One more article, from Watson of all places focussing in on the unease and growing court drama in the UDC ranks. Lot's going on that I have already touched on before, but it zones in on a few areas that are worth noting.

The biggest one is the increasing unease at Christoph Blocher, the bigwig who has set the party's direction in recent years. He had the issue with demanding his retired federal councillor rent a few months back ago - which seems to have played really pretty badly amond traditional UDC voters. But beyond that, there is a fair amount of angst on the fact that the party seems to be stuck on its traditional bugbears that are immigration and the EU.

Anecdotally it makes sense, and polling backs this up, that people are simply fed up of hearing about the issues, and of having the UDC harp on about them. This time round, apparently the UDC have had a lot of difficulty in getting their farmer-based to put up posters in their fields, which has been an old way of making their issues very visible. But, on top of that, the other parties have moved on to a new strategy, the "no" campaign has been much less dramatic than it was in 2014. If anything, the success has been in keeping the question away from the headlines (the hunting law and fighter jets seems to have heightened the passions more), and really kept the cultural warfare over immigration and the EU at bay - which seems to have become a winning strategy.

Are Swiss Germans that protective of their dialect though? Are they afraid of German cultural takeover to that extent?

Intensely proud. A slightly rude quote that the historian Thomas Maissen once came up with is «être Suisse allemand consiste essentiellement à ne pas être Allemand», which, well, there you go.

Personally, I've had numerous instances of people telling me explicitely that they would prefer to speak English over High German. The only reason I ever even use German is because I speak it with a French accent, which means people tend to assume I don't speak English well enough to use it in preference (ha).

I think it's increasingly the case in recent years that there has been an ever bigger preference for dialect over High German - which is some degree of cultural anxiety, linked to immigration (Zürich is something like 10% German citizens), media, "German gangster rap". You know the deal.

The weird thing is though, I get the feeling that the Swiss-Germans are much, much less interested in what is happening in Germany than the Romands (and presumably the Walloons) are with what is going on in France. It gets covered far less, and I get the feeling that there is simply a much bigger cultural gulf between them. It winds up that, once you get away from the linguistic border, not speaking Swiss-German is just a marker of being "foreign". Especially since immigrants tend to learn High German first and, even when they can understand dialect, still be quite reticient about actually speaking it.

[parochial boy]

«être Suisse allemand consiste essentiellement à ne pas être Allemand»
...
I get the feeling that the Swiss-Germans are much, much less interested in what is happening in Germany than the Romands (and presumably the Walloons) are with what is going on in France

A theory: Swiss Germans being the dominant population group in the country makes them identify with it more than other groups, and hence see Germany as much more "foreign", whereas French and Italians are like ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ when it comes to relations with neighboring countries (except those subhuman frontaliers of course).

Is that possible or nah?

I'm not sure I'd say identify with it more - there is no national identity other than Swiss in Ticino or Romandie either. Sure, the Swiss Germans do have a habit of considering themselves as the "default" Swiss, but then, the Romands are perfectly happy to pretend the Swiss Germans don't exist half the time. So the feeling is kind of mutual.

What I would say is that Swiss Germans have always had a culture that is rather more, er, "introverted" than the other two linguistic groups. See any vote on the EU or immigration for proof of that. They are also geographically fairly separated from Germany by a rather short border, whereas Romandie and Ticino are both surrounded on two sides by France or Italy. Plus, for instance, the Swiss Germans managed to keep their traditional dialects (which is both a reflection of, and actively contributes to the point above), whereas the francoprovençal dialects died out in the 19th century (whether or not a Ticinese dialect exists appears to be something even the Ticinese themselves don't agree on, I don't speak Italian, so can't comment. Anyway, that would be a couple among various other historical and sociological factors.

The Swiss German cantons have for the most part been "Swiss" for longer, and even if virtually nowhere in Romandie has really ever been part of an identifiably French state, there were always much closer political and social links. For instance, Rousseau was a Genevan and a key figure in the French Siècle des lumières; while Neuchâtel played a major role in the French revolution by being the centre for the publication of revolutionary tracts. There's less stuff like that linking German Switzerland to what eventually became Germany.

That said, the above could be completely moot in the current day and age. Probably the reason is (in part my perception to be honest) at least partly that German Switzerland both has a language of its own, and has a big enough internal market to maintain an active cultural and media scene. Lot's of musicians singing in Swiss German for instance.

In contrast, Romandie gets absolutely swamped in size by France, and doesn't have enough people to really maintain the same internal market. Until very recently it was basically a given that any French Swiss wanting to make a career in the arts had to go to France to do it, and there is quite a major inferiority complex about how little we do actually produce. It's only really improved very recently, and even then the local cultural scene basically only survives basically thanks to a combination of the summer music festivals and the active investment of the public broadcaster and a few of the more progressive local municipalities.

Having gone off on my tangent, the point being, the Swiss Germans rely on Germany for cultural output much less than the other linguistic groups, and as so, feel less connected to it.

[parochial boy]

And the Child tax deduction ends up being rejected by 37% to 63% while the Fighter jets are accepted with 50.1% - 49.9% (!). Amazing seeing as it was supposed to be a clear win.

Best maps available here (albeit paywalled), but also available on SRF's site or down to the commune level here.

Geneva also gets it's CHF23 ($25) per hour minimum wage with 58% support, and by a 70 vote margin passes a constitutional amendement to ensure that the effect of any corporate tax reforms are revenue neutral.

Fantastic day for the left, and may be time to kill off a few old stereotypes, huh?

[parochial boy]

parochial boy, did you vote as well today ?

What is your position on wolf hunting ?

Yep, well about two weeks ago in fact.

The hunting one was the only that I really had a hard time deciding on to be honest. I ended up voting No on the basis, well principally of one friend's intense lobbying but also because certain cantons (Valais, basically) have a pretty bad record when it comes to the hunting of protected species and I'm not sure I would trust them, not with wolves specifically, but other more harmless species like lynx or marmottes (Murmeltiere) that could also have been affected. Also the idea of being able to kill wolves before they had actually done something seemed a bit off.

Not sure it was the right decision, but it is what it is now - probably there needs to be big steps in areas like compensating farmers for attacks, or funding guard dogs. Right now, those laws are really quite unfair (and really should have been reformed anyway).

Swapping the results for the hunting and the fighter jets would have been ideal imo.

[parochial boy]

And finally, Schaffhausen's cantonal election:

SVP - 20 seats (-1) | 26,8%
SP - 12 seats (-1) | 22,3%
FDP - 8 seats (-2) | 14,7%
Greens  - 5 seats (+3) | 9,8%
GLP - 5 seats (+1) | 8,4%
AL - 4 seats (nc) | 7,7%
EDU - 2 seats (nc) | 3,1%
CVP - 2 seats (nc) | 3,0%
EVP - 2 seats (nc) | 2,7%

Right wing majority lost

[parochial boy]

Why does a neutral nation even need fighter jets?

As far as I could tell, the closest to a reasonable explanation that anyone ever came up with was "in case terrorists hijack an aeroplane and fly it across Swiss airspace".

I can think of more likely eventualities that it might be worth spending 6 billion francs preparing for. But, you know...

[parochial boy]

Continuing a busy electoral calendar this Autumn so here's an effort post to try and cover it all in one go. Coming up are another Federal vote on the 29th of November, and three cantons holding elections in October: Jura and Aargau on the 18th, and Basel-Stadt on the 25th
 
29th November Referendums
Not referendums, two popular initiatives, both coming from the left.
1.   “To outlaw the financing of war material producers” – does what it says on the tin, the National bank as well as public and professional pension funds would be banned from investing in companies who make more than 5% of their revenue from  arms sales. Context being the ages old controversies around arms exports from Switzerland. Exports to war zones were banned in 2018, but the issue is bubbling on, especially given that the largest arms manufacturer in the country, Ruag, is, at the time of writing, actually a nationalised entity. Opposition from across the right and the economic umbrella organsations on the theory that it would “endager the attractivity Switzerland’s financial services industry” - even if, in actual fact, most of the actors concerned have admitted that compliance would not be too difficult. Usual initiative rules apply, so expect this one to be rejected.
 
2.   “For responsible multinationals” – The big one. Walk round any Swiss city or town today and you will see hundreds of orange flags hanging from windows and balconies in support of this initiative. Not something that would seem unusual elsewhere, but I have never in my life seen such a take up of this method of campaigning here, testament to the actual grassroots enthusiasm that exists for it. The initiative would make any large company headquartered in Switzerland legally liable for any human rights or environmental abuses committed by any of their subsidiaries. That is, the victims of these would be able to take the company to court in Switzerland regardless of the legal situation in the country the subsidiary is operating in. In a country where delightful actors such as Nestlé, Trafigura, Glencore and Credit Suisse all have their headquarters, this is something that would have ramifications.
 
As an initiative, it is facing a steep hill to win, but the door does seem to be open, more so than in any other in recent years. It has the support, not just of the left and human rights and environmental regulations, but also a number of church organisations, and a chunk of the bourgeois centre and right. Both the EVP and BDP have positioned themselves in favour, as have a number of local GLP parties, the PDC youth wing and even a number of heavyweight politicans from the PLR and PDC. A couple of months, a poll suggested that 78% of the population were in favour of the initiative. That will fall, but altogether suggests that there is hope that this one could get passed, in which case it would be the first iniative to be accepted since 2014.
 
Jura
Current government is 2 PS, 1 PCSI (independent Christian Social party), 1 PLR, 1 PDC
 
Parliament is (60 seats in total)
PDC – 17
PS – 12
PLR – 9
PCSI – 8
UDC – 8
Greens – 4
CS-POP (far left) – 2
 
I’ve already covered it before, but Jura is the youngest canton, having separated from Bern only 41 years ago. With economy based on agriculture and higher proportion of jobs in industry than in any other canton, it also defies stereotypes by being one of the country’s most left wing cantons, on almost every topic, and increasingly left wing at that. In 2019 it was one of only three cantons where a majority of the vote was cast for left wing parties, and one of only 4 currently in possession of a left wing governing majority thanks to the seat held the PCSI, a left-wing split from the Christian Democrats who emerged during the separatist conflict.
 
The canton is split into three districts, and rather unusually, the districts do have some meaning beyond just an administrative presence. In the north is the Ajoie, a mostly rural and agricultural region that is the most Conservative and solidly Christian-Democratic part of the canton. In the East is the Delémont valley, centred around Delémont a left-wing industrial town focussed on metallurgy and watchmaking that is also the canton’s capital and largest town. Finally, in the west is the Franches-Montagnes, a remote high altitude plateau with a industrial watchmaking tradition. This region in particular has a notable left wing vote, including the hamlet of Lajoux, the most left wing municipality in the country. It’s working class heritage added to a certain “free thinking” tradition to do with how the region was settled has meant it always had a left tilt, but in particular, the legacy of the Jura separatist movement, and in particular the attempt to build a military base in the region, left it to develop a particularly marked egalitarian and anti-militaristic outlook, over 60% of the population voted to abolish the army back in 1989, and it was the single region of the country that rejected the new fighter jets by the largest margin. More widely the canton has a whole had the biggest no vote of any canton.
 
The biggest game in this election is whether the left keep hold of the governing majority that they won as a result of Socialist Rosalie Beuret-Siess’s election earlier this year, although the Greens fancy their chances at making it 4 out of 5. There are 13 candidates standing from all of the parliamentary parties, including all 5 incumbents. This in itself raises an interesting but rarely covered point over the fact that government elections in French Switzerland usually attract far more candidates than across the Röstigraben. Schaffhausen, similarly sized, only had 6 candidates stand for its 5 seats; even in Zürich last year, only 14 candidates stood.
 
In the parliamentary election the test is for the Christian-Democrats to see if they can remain as the largest party, or risk being overhauled by the Socialists as happened at the Federal election. The PDC keeping they’re traditional name for the time being, in a canton where there is not PBD branch. Aside from the normal issues around things like the economic diversification of a relatively poor and rural region, there is also the potential for a bit of heat over the ongoing story with Moutier, which was supposed to be joining the canton, but is now rolling towards a potential second vote. The story led to a surge in the PDC south of the border last year, the Christian Democrat mayor of Moutier being the primary protagonist in the story, and even if the topic is less heated on the north slope of the mountains, the recent revelation that there was in fact, no electoral tourism (the excuse used to cancel the original vote) going on in 2017 has raised tempers another notch.
 
Aargau
Regierungsrat is 2 SVP and one each from the CVP, FDP and SP
 
Grosser Rat (140 seats)
SVP – 45
SP – 27
FDP – 22
CVP – 17
Greens – 10
GreenLiberals – 7
EVP – 6
BDP – 4
EDU – 2
 
Also covered before, Aargau is a canton with a reputation as being a featureless buffer zone of motorways and suburban housing estates between the three largest Swiss German cities of Basel, Bern and Zürich. The canton is stereotyped for it's inhabitants' alleged love of white socks; a nod to the clichéd uncool and stuffy curtain-twitching attitudes of it's upper-working and lower-middle class denizens.

It’s more interesting than that, combining mid-sized industrial towns like Aarau and Lenzburg, medieval power houses like Zofingen and Baden, traditionally Catholic bastions like the Freiamt and hardcore Freikirche Protestant outputs in Kulm and around Zofingen. But also yes, endless tedious and ugly towns like Muri, Wohlen and Rupperswil* that function as distant suburbs and satellites of Zürich.
 
It is something of a canary in the coalmine as far as political trends go. Back in the 1990s, it was at the forefront of the growth of the UDC, as the canton’s rural and exurban areas turned en masse towards the party; but back in 2016 it gave the first hint of the tide turning towards the left as the Socialists (pre climate strike days) gained 5 seats. At the forefront of this was a demographic change in the canton’s exurban areas, a growing population of young families leaving the cities behind, but bringing a more socially liberal outlook and greater desire for strong public services with them. In 2019, a scandal hit UDC (two stories in particular stick out, a Regierungsrätin fired for incompetence and a Nationalrat fired for possession of forged money) lost nearly 7% of the vote, there second worst loss in the country, the PS winning in several towns and giving the Aar river valley a faint shadow of its old status as the country’s red belt.
 
12 candidates standing for the Regierungsrat this time. The SP’s Urs Hoffman is standing down and it seems like it will be a fraternal battle between the SP’s Dieter Egli and Green Christiane Guyer to maintain the left’s seat. Beyond those two, the four Bourgeois incumbents are standing again, including Jean-Pierre Gallati, who replaced the disgraced Franziska Roth last year, as well as a bunch of minor party no hopers and for some reason, three JUSO candidates.
 
In the parliamentary race, key interest is to see if the SVP have made any sort of recovery from the blows they took in 2019, or if they continue to drop. The scale of the defeat on the 27th September could set the scene for a difficult election. The SP would also like to hope that Corona induced concern for the welfare state means they can hold on to their 2016 surge, and the Greens would like to replicate their 2019 surge. Cantonal elections normally reflect the national situation pretty accurately, so it’s unlikely that there would be any overly unexpected movments. Like in the Jura, election is open list PR by district, but unlike in the Jura, the districts are only tenuously linked to historical cultural or geographical regions
 
Basel Stadt
Government is 3 SP, 1 Green and one each from the FDP, CVP and Liberal Democrats
 
Parliament (100 seats)
SP – 34
SVP – 15
Liberal Democratic Party  - 14
Greens – 14
FDP – 10
CVP – 7
GreenLiberals – 4
EVP/BDP joint list – 1
“Active Bettingen” (no idea) – 1
 
The Liberal Democrats are a relic of the old LDP, a mostly Romand formation somewhat to the right of the FDP which merged with Radicals at the federal level in 2009. They still exist separately in Basel for reasons best known to themselves, although are technically members of the federal FDP. Although somewhat politically heterogenous, have the same reputation as being the party of the old school bourgeois elite that the Vaud/Neuchâtel/Geneva ones did
 
Basel Stadt is made of almost entirely of the city of Basel itself, alongside the two much smaller neighbouring communes of Riehen and Bettingen. The city itself is the probably the most identifiably industrial and (historically) working class of the three largest German speaking cities, being a major home to the pharmaceutical (including giants Novartis and Roche) and Chemical (Syngenta) industries. Thank this, the city has a certain reputation for pollution, at one point the Rhine was too polluted to swim is, and jokes about smog still abound. Fitting then, that 18 months ago it declared a state of “climate emergency”, even beating self-styled world capital of ecology Lausanne to the mark
 
It's electoral behaviour doesn’t distinguish wildly from the other “big” cities, perhaps mildly more inclined to a certain degree of immigration and EU scepticism, and mildly more supportive of efforts to build the welfare state and regulate the free market, but in both cases, it’s a marginal difference and the city is still well to the left of the country as a whole. In 2019 it was the only German speaking canton where the PS was the largest party, and where the left won a majority of the vote.
 
The canton is split into 5 constituencies, two for the neighbouring municipalities and three for Basel itself: the traditionally upmarket Grossbasel Ost; historically more working class Grossbasel West; and the historically industrial and now predictably hipsterised Kleinbasel which lies on the north bank of the Rhine. Like with Zürich, Lausanne and Geneva, the east side of Basel is the traditionally wealthier side. However, while in the case of the other three, this developed largely out natural geography, notably of hillsides catching the evening sun, in Basel’s case it was more to do with the east of the city being the only available space to build large villas at the time of industrialisation.
 
13 candidates standing for the 7 seat government this time, including 5 incumbents. The PS’s Christoph Brutschin and Hans-Peter Wessel’s both standing down. In all likelihood, they will be replaced by two new socalist Regierungsräte, Beat Jans and Kaspar Sutter, of the remaining governing parties, only the LDP are challenging for a second seat. In that respect, the left are chasing a double majority in both government and parliament. By all accounts, the outlook is good, the outgoing government is quite well regarded, and they have the zeitgeist on their side – even if it remains to be seen whether the climate activist “occupation” of the Bundesplatz and subsequent dispersal by the police has any electoral impact. Interestingly, the SP and Greens have made their opposition to mooted tax cuts a big theme, citing their “destructive” potential to the city’s ongoing development plans.

*There is a French-Swiss comedian who has a running joke about “my uncle in Rupperswil”, which kind of sums up the stereotypes that people have about how outstandingly boring the combination of Swiss-Germans and suburban ennui must be

[parochial boy]

Some palace drama: in the light of recent interviews given by the leaders of both parties, there is speculation that the PDC and PS are plotting together to organise the ejection of one or both of the UDC's Federal Council seats. This seems to be inspired by the increasing feeling among both parties' leadership, shared by the PLR, that the UDC are not playing the game with regards to concordance. Key complaints including Maurer's positioning on the immigration initiative; the recent souring of relations where the UDC tried to remove one of their own federal judges* for prioritising actually following the law over the party line; and the news that the UDC appear to be preparing yet another initiative against the bilaterals. In an interview with the Tages-Anzeiger, Gerhard Pfister basically inferred that the UDC need to decide if they want to be an opposition party or a government one.

What seems like would happen is that, in 2023, Ueli Maurer will theoretically step down as Federal Councillor. All things obliged, he would be replaced by another UDC hardliner - like for like replacement. At the moment, it seems as if the UDC would try to clear the way for Magdalena Martullo-Blocher (Christoph's daughter), a horrifying perspective for the entire spectrum, in particular as the idea of a familial inheritance of political power is seen as beyond the pail. In this scenario, the parliament would try an elect a more acceptable figure, probably ex-president Albert Rösti, who would then have to decide between rejecting his election or risk being Widmer-Schlumpfed and expelled from the party. Should the former case arise, it would leave open the option to elect a non-UDC to the seat, and in the latter, well, the UDC would de-facto have lost it.

Of course, this all depends on the balance of parties after the 2023 federals, and the Greens own claims to a seat. But, as things stand, the Left parties along with the PDC-PBD-PEV group do have a parliamentary majority, and especially if the PLR don't block any manoeuvres, would be able to push this through.

Plots against the UDC are actually nothing new, a similar PDC-PS plot was in the wings before 2015, but wound up dead in the water as the UDC flew to victory. The difference this time is that, well, people aren't afraid of the UDC anymore. Back in 2015 they were on a high, were winning popular initiatives for fun and dictating the poitical agenda. Now... well it's not really the case any more. The string of recent defeats speak for themselves, and the magical aura they had has completely dissapeared - further losses in their Aargauer heartland this weekend could consolidate that impression of a party on the retreat even further and embolden potential manoeuvres against them.

*Context is that federal judges are elected by the parliament, and theoretically reflect the weight of parties in parliament

[parochial boy]

- MEGASNIP -

Are those cantons' executives structured like the Federal Council? And is that so for all Swiss cantons?

It's the same in so far as it's a collective leadership, but the election is different. The precise rules vary, but the cantonal government are elected by popular vote. Basically, everyone gets 5 (or 7 in some cantons) votes and the 5 (or 7) candidates with the most votes get elected.

[parochial boy]

- MEGASNIP -

Are those cantons' executives structured like the Federal Council? And is that so for all Swiss cantons?

It's the same in so far as it's a collective leadership, but the election is different. The precise rules vary, but the cantonal government are elected by popular vote. Basically, everyone gets 5 (or 7 in some cantons) votes and the 5 (or 7) candidates with the most votes get elected.

Uhm very interesting method. I like it. And are executives elected at the same time as the legislatures usually?

Yeah, I'm used to it, so I think it works well too. It still sort of requires politicians who viscerally hate each other to actually try and agree on stuff though, and the norm is that the government is usually subordinate to the parliament, so I'm not sure how well it would work in other countries

Usually they're the same time as the legislative elections - although some cantons say you can only be elected in the first round if you get a majority of the vote - so you wind up with a second round a few weeks later.

Then there are a couple of cantons that decide to hold their government elections at different times to the parliamentary ones, and one canton that elects their's every year at the Landsgemeinde, which is probably not technically a democratic way of doing it, but the canton in question is basically a toy-town tourist attraction rather than a real place where people actually live.

[parochial boy]

Yeah, I'm used to it, so I think it works well too. It still sort of requires politicians who viscerally hate each other to actually try and agree on stuff though, and the norm is that the government is usually subordinate to the parliament, so I'm not sure how well it would work in other countries

Usually they're the same time as the legislative elections - although some cantons say you can only be elected in the first round if you get a majority of the vote - so you wind up with a second round a few weeks later.

Then there are a couple of cantons that decide to hold their government elections at different times to the parliamentary ones, and one canton that elects their's every year at the Landsgemeinde, which is probably not technically a democratic way of doing it, but the canton in question is basically a toy-town tourist attraction rather than a real place where people actually live.

Oh I have heard about the magic institution of the Landsgemeinde in Appenzello Interno.

Why do you say it's "not technically a democratic way of doing it"?

Well, the lack of a secret ballot is the big issue. The one in Glarus in particular has a habit of being surprisingly progressive in relation to what the canton is usually like, probably mostly because people don't want to go and stand in the town square and admit to hating foreigners, or muslims, or the poor

[parochial boy]

First Tamedia polling for November has

Responsible Multinationals
Yes - 57%
No - 41%

Huge gender gap, women being 20% more likely to support the initiative. The fact that it has already been the subject of attention for so long might mean the drop in support is limited, but being at this level over a month out probably means it is doomed.

War material finance ban
Yes - 52%
No - 45%

In some party news - the UDC of Francophone Valais came out in support of the responsible multinationals vote. Not especially important, but, well, lets call it a surprise; perhaps one of the most unexpected calls I can remember.

Everyone's favourite unhinged racist and well on his way to becoming the most unpopular person in the country, Andreas Glarner also tried to introduce legislation that would ban dual nationals from the federal parliament. The problem being that a full 25% of Swiss citizens also hold a second passport, including at least one federal councillor as well as around one tenth of the UDC's own parliamentary delegation. So it was mildly amusing to see even his own party pissed off at the insinuation that "dual nationals have divided loyalties". Sibel Arslan even went as far as waggishly suggesting that he might need help integrating into Switzerland himself; and the UDC are now panicking at the prospect of falling under the 30% barrier in Aargau on Sunday - as a point of comparison, that would be like the Republicans losing in Texas (ho hum...).

Tune in again to see who he annoys next week.

Christian Levrat has also finally stood down as leader of the PS, being replaced by a dual leadership of Mattea Meyer and Cedric Wermuth.

In respect of that, there has been a few summaries of Levrat's record as leader. Back in 2007, he took over the party and put it back on a firmly old school Social Demcoratic - trade unionist route. His leadership is generally considered as having been a success even despite the loss of about 2,5% of the vote since 2007. Which well, is probably fair enough when you consider the route that basically every other European Soc Dem party has taken since during that timeframe. The PS was particularly blown away by the Green wave last year, as had seemed to be on the route to a gain until the agenda suddenly changed thanks to the school strikes.

But beyond this, he was succesfuly at turning the PS into a force in the Conseil des États, often working with the PDC in blocking the more radical agenda of the PLR-UDC 2015-19 majority. He also played the referendum game very succesfully, scoring big victories against the RIEI II tax reforms, Gripen fighter jets and childcare tax deductions. In fact, one of the biggest take aways of the last 12 years is the way that the left has been able to develop into a force capable of going out and winning referendums without needing the centre or the liberals on board.

The new Meyer-Wermuth tandem will keep the party firmly on the left, pretty much regardless of the topic. However, in contrast to Levrat, a trade unionist from the rural Gruyères region of Fribourg; the new leaders represent a rather more urban "new-left" profile. Possibly this might put them closer to the Greens in terms of electoral profile (the PS vote notably held up best in rural and exurban regions last year), although potentially not. Wermuth, incidentally a Swiss-Italian dual national which might annoy a certain other politician, in particular is likely to hold on to the class warfare rhetoric, complete with the knowledge that working class Swiss nationals are, um, not actually that imporant, numerically speaking; and there is unlikely to be any meaningful policy change. That said, the workerist v (mostly Swiss German) urban-liberal factional divide will almost certainly rear its head in the near future as the party could tear itself apart of the framework agreement.

[parochial boy]

Not very interesting cantonal elections as it turns out.

In Aargau the centre gained from the right; and within the blocks, the Greens gained at the expense of the SP, the GLP gained at the expense of the PDC-PBD alliance; the SVP and FDP both lost more or less equally. Possibly not the best first outing of the new "Centre" branding, as although it was one seat up for the PDC over last time, if feels as if the PBD's old vote flowed more towards to Greenliberals than to the Christian Democrats.

No changes in the government at all. Wikipedia has the best summary of results, though the Aargauer Zeitung has some pretty cool interactive maps by Gemeinde. As a bit of basic electoral sociology, the red spots are essentiallly where the high speed trains to Zurich stop.

In Jura, the left gained at the expense of the bourgeois parties. The Greens  nearly doubled their delegation, the PS actually picked up a seat and the UDC, PLR and PDC lost in broadly equal measures. Something of a dissapointment for the UDC who, off the back of the federal election, figures they had an opportunity in the Ajoie - the region suffers from the feeling of being left beind relative to the better connected Delémont, which looks towards Basel in particular; as well as relative to the Franches-Montagnes, which have profited from the watchmaking boom just over the border in Neuchatel.

Results including by district are available here.

In the government election, a potential surprise in the making as the PDC's Stéphane Babey beat incumbent PCSI David Éray to 5th place. No-one managing a majority so a second round will occur on the 8th of November. Éray's hopes of holding his spot probably rely on whether the two Green candidates decide to stand down, as well as a big turn out from his native Franches-Montagnes.

[parochial boy]

First SRG SSR / GFS.Bern poll for November



Confirming the big gender gap for the 'multinationales responsables' (20% higher among women), and support hinging on PDC and GLP voters. The latter have come out in favour of the initiative, much to the chagrin of founder Martin Bäumle; who is bemoaning, not entirely incorrectly, the fact that the party he originally set up to be an ecologist but economically right wing one is moving ever more to the left. Although you can argue over the extent to which that was inevitable, as from its outset, the party always had an electorate that was notably more left wing than it's political line.

Notably there is already a relatively high level of opinion formation. 68% of people saying that they have made their minds up already, testament to how visible the campaign has been for so long. This tends to correlate to support levels holding up better as initiative campaigns continue. But remains to be seen whether it is enough to make it. I'd still be expecting a close but losing result no the 29th.

[parochial boy]

Results from Basel-stadt

Government
Big shock as outgoing president Elizabeth Ackermann of the Greens finishes only 9th. She made some unpopular decisions regarding sacking a museum director, which seems to have been the source of the result.

Absolute majority was 24'716 votes so agonisingly close for Eymann.

The top 4 all get over the absolute majority, with the final three seats going to a second round in 5 weeks. Big fight for the red-greens to hold on to their majority :

Tanja Soland - SP  - 33 175 votes
Lukas Engelberger - CVP - 30 625 votes
Conradin Cramer - LDP (Liberal Democratic party) - 29 348 votes
Beat Jans - SP - 28 751 votes
--------------------------------------
Stephanie Eymann - LDP - 24 637 votes (also finishing first in the presidential race, that will require   second round too)
Kaspar Sutter - SP - 23 08  votes
Baschi Dürr - FDP - 22 149 votes
Esther Keller - GLP - 21 852 votes
Elisabeth Ackermann - GP - 20 206 votes
Stefan Suter - SVP - 12 769 votes
Christine Kaufmann - EVP - 11 256 votes
Christian Mueller - FUK (Free Lower Kleinbasel, a, as the name suggests, joke party) - 5 719 votes
Eric Weber - VA (People's action against too many foreigners and asylum seekers in our homeland, Weber is one of those 'characters' if you know what I mean) - 3 048 votes

Parliament

This time, left-green holding it steady despite the disspointing government results, with the SP losing to the Greens as per usual. GLP also surging up, they really seem to be the fashionable party at the moment, which translates into a pretty mediocre set of results for the right.

Cba to do percentages because the BS website isn't really showing them, but...

Edit - now with added percentages from the Office féderale de la statistique. Turns out the SP vote actually hold out fairly well, they just got stung by, well I guess either PR calculation methodology (usually a sort of modified d'Hondt) or listenverbindungen. I don't really know because I wasn't paying attention tbh.

SP - 30 seats (-4) // 32.3% (-0.3%)
Greens - 18 seats (+4) // 18.2% (+4.8%)
LDP - 14 seats (nc) // 14.1% (+0.3%)
SVP - 11 seats (-4) // 10.8% (-3.5%)
GLP - 8 seats (+4) // 8.0% (+3.7
FDP - 7 seats (-3) // 8.1% (-1.1%)
CVP - 7 seats (nc) // 6.0% (+0.1%)
EVP - 3 seats (+2) // 2.1% (+0.7%)
VA - 1 seat (+1) // 1.6% (-0.3%)
Active Bettingen - 1 seat (nc) // 0.1% (nc)

Starting to look pretty yucky for the FDP actually

Full results here

[parochial boy]

In news, the PDC/CVP membership has approved the name change to The Centre (I guess we're calling it that in English?) by a 61% to 39% margin. Over the next month this should be confirmed by the party's general meeting and the PBD and PDC should confirm their upcoming union. Cantonal parties would have until 2025 to adopt the new name, though it seems like the only resistance is going to come from the Valais section.

It feels a bit strange, as the Valais Christian Democrats are probably the local party who are losing votes at the fastest rate of any PDC cantonal party at the moment (barely over a third of the vote last year, when they were an absolute majority at the start of the century, and having suffered another hard defeat at the communal elections two weeks ago). But, it looks like they have decided to knuckle down on the idea that Valais is still a religious and conservative canton. Which kind of makes you think that not one of them has ever been anywhere west of Sierre, but, well, their choice.

It does seem like Pfister is sensing a bit of an opportunity for his party at the moment. The consensus is that the GreenLiberals seem to be abandoning the centre and hinting ever left (which is an exaggeration, but not that untrue), which potentially means a vacated centre ground for the Centre to fill up, especially if they hint a bit right. On the other hand, the PS are in a bit of trouble with how to triangluate themselves as they have the GLP encroaching on their urban-left-liberal electorate and the Greens taking the urban-left-protest-vote. The by product of which is that the PS are potentially unique among Social Democratic parties in that their electorate is actually becoming less urban. As mentioned, the new leadership seems poised to play up the culturally progressive and anti-capitalist themes, which seems, well, maybe they'd be better of focussing on more concrete themes relating to the welfare state or social security in order to shore up the people who are actually sticking with the party at the minute.

[parochial boy]

One more, seat wins and losses for the main parties in this years cantonal elections (overall not a bad cross section of the whole country, just underrepresenting Romandie, which has a busy electoral year in 2021):

source: watson.ch

The Green surge surges on and all the government parties are losing, although actually somewhat defying expectations that the PDC and, to a lesser extent, the PS are holding up better.

Ugly for the PLR who this year have been unsure about the climate change bill, unsure about the corona restrictions, unsure about how to support the economy, unsure about paternity leave and are now unsure about the framework agreement. Consequence, they have been invisible from referendum campaigns, including the multinationales responsables initiative. Where you'd naturally be expecting them to spearhead the No campaign.

Keller-Suter is quite a popular Federal Councillor, but Cassis undoes that potential advantage by being a particularly unpopular one - in particular with a newer controversy about conflicts of interest in some of his hiring choices within the Foreign Affairs department.

Anyway, if these losses go on and on then questions about their second Federal Council seat will become louder. Considering that this was the party that had all 7 seats for 43 years, and the absolute majority on it from 1848 to 1943, the idea of them being reduced to such a bit part role is, well, we've found our new "which party is in crisis" narrative for the next three years.

[parochial boy]

And one more to be going on with cos it's home canton stuff - Pierre Maudet, the Geneva Conseiller d'État, former cantonal president who was thrown out of the PLR as a result of the 2 year ongoing corruption scandal around his trip to Abu Dhabi and subsequent contracts awarded to UAE based firms was yesterday stripped of his role as head of the Department for Economic Development in the canton.

Today he finally, finally annonced his resignation - but will stand for re-election at the partial election to be held early next year. I would think he won't manage it, given the scandal has tarnished the image of the canton through across the whole country and he is one of the few politicians that people in my friendship circle know of, purely because they hate him.

Does the left sniff a potential government majority in Geneva here? I dare say the right Green candidate would have a very serious chance at grabbing them a second seat.

[parochial boy]

So, I hear there is some other election going on today, but second round of Tamedia polling astonishingly has support for the multinationales responsables holding steady - almost unheard of for an initiative:

Konzernverantwortungsinitiative
Yes - 57% (nc!)
No - 42% (+1%)

Including 50% saying "definite yes", indicating that the opinion formation is already well developed. Back on the cards?

Financing of war materials
Yes - 51% (-1%)
No - 46% (+1%)

[parochial boy]

Financing of war materials
Yes - 51% (-1%)
No - 46% (+1%)

Is that a ban on Swiss banks/financial institutions financing the purchase of war materials?

It would ban the Swiss National Bank, the state and pension funds from holding investments in companies that make over 5% of their revenue from selling any war materials - either directly or indirectly (ie suppliers or funds). So UBS and Credit Suisse would still be able to; although theoretically the initiative would also require the government to "work towards" banning (non-public sector) banks and insurers from holding those investments.

[parochial boy]

Resulst from the second round in Jura. David Eray winds up fairly comfortably fifth, meaning that the governing majority will stay on the centre-left. Image from RTS

[parochial boy]

Another survey from GFS.Zurich showing that a bare majority of just 82% of Swiss people support the introduction of gay marriage, including two out of three of UDC voters, and just 70% in support of lesbian couples being able to access fertility treatment.

Obviously with such, *cough* close numbers it makes perfect sense as to why the Conseil des États has been sitting on their arses on this subject for *checks notes* 7 (seven) years.

[parochial boy]

Another survey from GFS.Zurich showing that a bare majority of just 82% of Swiss people support the introduction of gay marriage, including two out of three of UDC voters, and just 70% in support of lesbian couples being able to access fertility treatment.

Obviously with such, *cough* close numbers it makes perfect sense as to why the Conseil des États has been sitting on their arses on this subject for *checks notes* 7 (seven) years.

Kinda weird that no one managed to bring it to a referendum yet.

Oh it will go to a referendum, it just needs to get through parliament first. Once the bill passes the protestant taliban UDF have already made it clear that they will challenge it to one, and probably won't have too much difficulty getting the 50'000.

No-one has started an initiative for it because it's already been raised as a bill in parliament (you know, seven years ago) - and initiatives are normally reserved for things that either fail the parliamentary route or never had any chance anyway. This one will get passed, it's just that the Christian Democrats are dragging their feet on it because they're torn between the Alpine Catholics (who elect their senators) and their "centrist" posturing. Getting parliament to pass a bill is a much more likely (and *usually"* quicker) way to get something made law.

[parochial boy]

A, for some reason, voting intention poll from Sotomo and SSR SRG



Changes on the Federal election are:

UDC: -1.5%
PS: nc
PLR: nc
Greens: -1.0%
PDC: +0.5%
GreenLiberals: 2%
PEV: +0.5%
PBD: -0.5%

Hard to say how likely this is, GLP gains seem in line with the cantonal electio; but kind of strange that the Greens are losing while the PLR and PS are holding steady, which contradicts the cantonals somewhat. Although that said, these elctions have been 2015/16 repeats, so potentially not so easy to compare to 2019. Polling often tends to underestimate swings that do happen too - so GLP could be up more than a couple of points. That score is the UDC's lowest since the 1990s.