Are S&D parties becoming unelectable?

[Red Wall]

Currently S&D has 5 members in the European council. Out of them, only the Malta PM isn't declining in the polls. Sanchez is likely toast in Spain, Scholz is not even halfway into his term in Germany and looks completely DOA, Costa is sinking on daily corruption scandals in Portugal, even non EU countries have situations like the UK where Labour's lead looks shaky at best when compared to actual results and Norway which has a S&D led government with 70% disapproval. The disperation is clear in the party with moves like the PvdA/GL merge in the Netherlands. Are issues like immigration and the anti establishment wave in europe turning S&D parties unelectable as they are the only ones who are usually both the establishment and pro immigration?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You might wish to revise this rather stupid thread now that the good people of God's Own County have humiliated you.

[mileslunn]

5 years ago things looked bleak for S&D but then won in many areas looked bleak like Spain and Germany.  Yeah in trouble in both now but I think Europe is now in state where winning re-election tough although parties on right seem to have better record.  I do think as has been case since 2000, parties on right will win more than parties on left but parties on left still win occasionally. 

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

As of right now the crude untrusted nationalists of ID have a grand total of zero seats on the European Council, so unless something changes radically in the dynamics of European political alliances in the next seven years, you will have to cope.

[M0096]

Slovakia is almost safe gain for S&D in European Council.

[CumbrianLefty]

Had a look at the thread starter's other posts. Ignore.

[M0096]

Opinion polling for next parliamentary election (S&D members):
1st place: Denmark, Lithuania, Malta, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia**, Sweden
2nd place: Belgium, Croatia, Italy, Luxembourg, Slovakia**, Spain
close 3rd place: Austria, Finland, Germany, Latvia
minor party/parties: Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia

*incumbent government leader - bold
** two S&D members are 1st and 2nd in polls

[oldtimer]

5 years ago things looked bleak for S&D but then won in many areas looked bleak like Spain and Germany.  Yeah in trouble in both now but I think Europe is now in state where winning re-election tough although parties on right seem to have better record.  I do think as has been case since 2000, parties on right will win more than parties on left but parties on left still win occasionally. 

It comes and goes, mostly the reverse of the angloamericans.

The discontinuity is because continental europe weathered the 1973 oil shock better than America or Britain, so they largerly saw no change in power.

So when a crisis hits they flip, but in opposite directions, it's rare to have France and America in alignment for too long.

[CumbrianLefty]

Opinion polling for next parliamentary election (S&D members):
1st place: Denmark, Lithuania, Malta, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia**, Sweden
2nd place: Belgium, Croatia, Italy, Luxembourg, Slovakia**, Spain
close 3rd place: Austria, Finland, Germany, Latvia
minor party/parties: Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia

*incumbent government leader - bold
** two S&D members are 1st and 2nd in polls

Though in Portugal the PS will be second soon if they aren't already - whilst in contrast the PvdA seem to be making a bit of a comeback (they've been up and down like a yo-yo in recent years)

[Mike88]

Opinion polling for next parliamentary election (S&D members):
1st place: Denmark, Lithuania, Malta, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia**, Sweden
2nd place: Belgium, Croatia, Italy, Luxembourg, Slovakia**, Spain
close 3rd place: Austria, Finland, Germany, Latvia
minor party/parties: Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia

*incumbent government leader - bold
** two S&D members are 1st and 2nd in polls

Though in Portugal the PS will be second soon if they aren't already - whilst in contrast the PvdA seem to be making a bit of a comeback (they've been up and down like a yo-yo in recent years)

In Portugal, the PS is second depending on the polling firm but almost always up or behind by just 1%, which is nothing more than a tie. However, not sure if the trend will continue, as political events are being very volatile.

[CumbrianLefty]

But one must expect the broader trend of the PS regime being unpopular will carry on for a while.

[Mike88]

But one must expect the broader trend of the PS regime being unpopular will carry on for a while.

Being unpopular yes, but if that means more support for the main opposition party, I'm not sure about that.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There are many things you could say about social democracy and Social Democratic Parties in the 21st century, and what exactly they mean in a post industrial West and post communist east. But unelectable is a big word that you can in no way justify.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Speaking of the OP having to cope, so much for "Sanchez is likely toast in Spain"!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are many things you could say about social democracy and Social Democratic Parties in the 21st century, and what exactly they mean in a post industrial West and post communist east. But unelectable is a big word that you can in no way justify.

Yes, one of the fascinating things about politics now is that the old socialist tradition and heritage is alive, but the more radical and utopian elements are variously dead and dying. Which does not mean that there are not socialists under eighty who have radical and/or utopian politics, but that this radicalism comes from other sources.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Really, the issue is just that you win some, you lose some. Some people got very attached to the whole 'centre-left in inexorable decline' narrative for their own reasons, and now that it looks like it may not have been true they're overcorrecting. parochial boy is right about the context, but what all of that means above all is that few things are fixed nowadays and outside of very politically polarised societies, the last election tells you almost nothing about the next. Maybe in a year's time a lot of these new centre-left governments will be in the polling doldrums and the discourse will be right back where it started, and still as annoying as ever.

I hate being right.

[mileslunn]

I think problem with left is shifting coalitions.  The past working class seems to heavily skew older and is harder to maintain without alienating younger urban progressive voters.  Many blue collar are shifting to right wing populists as don't like policies on immigration and fact some but not all parties on right are centre-leftish on economics makes that switch easier while others focus more on cultural issues.  Main problem for social democrats in Europe is unlike US, all parties support their social programs and threat of social safety net being dismantled just isn't there so they have more or less achieved their goal.  For some they have outlived usefulness.  While not to extreme as US, unionization rates also have outside Nordic Countries fallen a lot. 

Today the left is more about strong action on climate change, LGBT rights, minority rights and yes some wealth redistribution and those are appealing to your urban progressives but in Europe that cohort is much smaller than in North America.  Despite high population density, percentage of Europeans living in large metro areas is much smaller than in US or Canada so social democratic parties need to stay relevant in smaller communities to win and do so without alienating their vote in larger urban areas.  As European countries become more diverse, a problem to is many of their white supporters want less immigration as they feel it suppresses their wages, but non-whites are an important part of their electorate.  The white population that is pro-immigration tends to be more your upper middle class types who economically are liberal (that is liberal in classical liberal sense, not tax and spend liberal like used in US) so won't vote for social democratic parties over economic reasons. 

Still I think they shouldn't be written off for good despite going through tough time.  Big problem in European politics, is things just getting more fragmented in general as with few exceptions, usually winning party got over 30% in past (often over 40%) whereas nowadays more often than not winner only gets in 20s and in some cases like Belgium & Netherlands only teens.