Is OH really trending R?

[Sir Mohamed]

People have used Trump's 8 point margin in 2016 and Rich Cordray's loss in 2018 as evidence that OH is trending R. But is the state really on track to become MO 2.0 or VA in reverse? I'm not really sure, because it has always been a light red state by voting to the right of the nation almost every election in recent decades. And Dems have controlled the Gov. Mansion only for one term since 1991, which was following a terrible GOP midterm and an outgoing gov. with a major scandal.

The good news for Dems is that they don't need OH to win the WH, but the GOP does. Of course, Trump would have won in '16 without OH, but he doesn't win PA, MI and WI by losing OH. My prediction for 2020 is that the Dem only wins OH in a national landslide by today's standards (at least Obama '08 levels).

[Peanut]

Ya think?

[Zaybay]

It definitely trended R from 2012-2016. The question is does it keep moving R, does the state see a revision, or does the state stay at 2016 levels? Based off of 2018, and accounting for the wave, there was a slight revision, but 2020 will be the definite proof for the state's future.

[Mr.Phips]

It definitely is.  Just look at the trend in every part of the state outside of Columbus and Cincinatti from 2012 to 2016.  The Ohio river valley which had been competitive for Dems for years is now as Republican as West Virginia and the Dem trend in the two cities is not enough to offset the 40 point margins Republicans are getting there.  And then you have the rest of the state, which with the exception of Toledo is voting like rural Indiana.

[TDAS04]

Yes.

[bagelman]

Anyone with two eyes can see that my state is trending R. But it's not the new Missouri like many atlasian hacks seem convinced it is. It's not at the point where it's going to vote to the right of Texas and Georgia on a regular basis, and it's an open question whether that will ever happen.

[Politician]

Obviously. It isn't becoming the New Missouri though, and the 2016 numbers were unusually bad for Democrats. OH statewide always votes to the right of OH presidentially.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Ohio has been a red state masquerading as a swing state for 20 years now. This is because,

1. Bush 44 was a really bad Republican for the state.
2. Obama was a really good Democrat for the state.

[Mr.Phips]

Ohio has been a red state masquerading as a swing state for 20 years now. This is because,

1. Bush 44 was a really bad Republican for the state.
2. Obama was a really good Democrat for the state.

Looking back at 2004, it really is amazing how close Kerry came to carrying the state. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ohio has been a red state masquerading as a swing state for 20 years now. This is because,

1. Bush 44 was a really bad Republican for the state.
2. Obama was a really good Democrat for the state.

Why was Romney such a bad fit for the state

[TML]

Ohio has been a red state masquerading as a swing state for 20 years now. This is because,

1. Bush 44 was a really bad Republican for the state.
2. Obama was a really good Democrat for the state.

Why was Romney such a bad fit for the state

One possible contributing factor was his 47% remark.

[FalloutBoy97]

Ohio has been a red state masquerading as a swing state for 20 years now. This is because,

1. Bush 44 was a really bad Republican for the state.
2. Obama was a really good Democrat for the state.

Why was Romney such a bad fit for the state

One possible contributing factor was his 47% remark.

I'd throw in the auto bailout comments as well. Romney just didn't do much for the working class swing voters here. He was too easy to caricature as an out-of-touch rich guy.

[lfromnj]

Ohio has been a red state masquerading as a swing state for 20 years now. This is because,

1. Bush 44 was a really bad Republican for the state.
2. Obama was a really good Democrat for the state.

Why was Romney such a bad fit for the state

One possible contributing factor was his 47% remark.

I'd throw in the auto bailout comments as well. Romney just didn't do much for the working class swing voters here. He was too easy to caricature as an out-of-touch rich guy.

Yeah Trumbull and Mahoning actually SWUNG D in 2012.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, but I don't think it's the next Missouri. The state's urban areas are enough to keep Democrats at about a 40% floor in competitive elections.

[wesmoorenerd]

Yes, but I don't think it's the next Missouri. The state's urban areas are enough to keep Democrats at about a 40% floor in competitive elections.

This is a great point. Ohio has significant urban areas, some of which (Cincinnati in particular) are growing and trending D at the same time. It's because of this that I don't think Ohio will ever be titanium R.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=310847.0

[538Electoral]

It's trending Republican, But it's still elastic. From an Ohioan.

[Flyersfan232]

governor dewine would agree now stop with  dewineing.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Ohio has been a red state masquerading as a swing state for 20 years now. This is because,

1. Bush 44 was a really bad Republican for the state.
2. Obama was a really good Democrat for the state.

Why was Romney such a bad fit for the state

One possible contributing factor was his 47% remark.

I'd throw in the auto bailout comments as well. Romney just didn't do much for the working class swing voters here. He was too easy to caricature as an out-of-touch rich guy.

Yeah Trumbull and Mahoning actually SWUNG D in 2012.

So the real question is, is non-urban NW OH trending R? And if it's not, will this traditionally Democratic area still be able to offset the non-urban Ohio Valley and coal country, which has been trending R for 30 years now (in WV, KY, and IN, too).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Portman inflated the Trump numbers in OH to some degree, as well as the Clinton scandals.  It still remains to be seen, if OH will become the next MO, as well as IA.

But, PA is the KEYSTONE state

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Portman inflated the Trump numbers in OH to some degree, as well as the Clinton scandals.  It still remains to be seen, if OH will become the next MO, as well as IA.

But, PA is the KEYSTONE state

IA will always be a state full of pragmatists who are not tied to party or ideology.  Like New England, it will be a place where Democrats can still regularly win rural, white voters.

I agree that PA is everything in 2020. Trump will not win re-election without it.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I think the R trend is temporary. The rurals need to get maxed out for Republicans, then the suburbs and urban areas need to continue their D trends for Ohio to regain its status as a purple state.

[lfromnj]

I think the R trend is temporary. The rurals need to get maxed out for Republicans, then the suburbs and urban areas need to continue their D trends for Ohio to regain its status as a purple state.

to you what state's R trend isn't temporary?

Literally some states have to trend R by virtue of a trend.

[Xing]

Clearly it is, though I don't think it's about to start voting Republican by 15-20% like Missouri, and I doubt that Trump even wins it by double digits unless he's winning massively overall.

[jamestroll]

Clearly it is, though I don't think it's about to start voting Republican by 15-20% like Missouri, and I doubt that Trump even wins it by double digits unless he's winning massively overall.

I agree here. If a Republican wins the national popular vote, Ohio would obviously vote GOP by at least 15 points.

Still, Ohio is gone for the Democrats and should be lightly contested in 2020. There are no house seats that can realistically flip there, no executive offices on the ballot and no Senate election. Leave the state alone for 2020.