2000 and 2016 without the 22nd amendment

[BigVic]

How will the 2000 and 2016 elections play out without the 22nd amendment which limits the President to two terms assuming Bill Clinton and Barack Obama runs in these years?

Discuss with maps

[dw93]

I believe Bill Clinton beats any nominee the GOP puts forth, though someone like McCain would give Bill a run for his money. That said, regardless of who the Republicans nominated, 2000 will still be (electorally speaking) significantly closer than 1992 and 1996, though this is one scenario where I see Clinton hitting or breaking 50% of the popular vote.


As for Barack Obama, I believe it really depends on who the nominee is. Keep in mind, Obama's job approval ratings were at best average through his two terms, and while the economy did improve through his 8 years, it was for most of his time in office an uneven recovery and there were enough voters that didn't feel any effects of the recovery. Obama also lost ground in term 1, as seen in 2012 with that election being closer than 2008 (while Clinton and even W. managed to improve in 1996 and 2004 respectively). If the nominee is someone like Cruz or Trump, Obama wins, and against Cruz might even hold onto Iowa and Ohio on a good night. Best case for him is 2012 plus NC. Against someone like Rubio or Kasich (or someone else similar) he either narrowly holds on or narrowly loses. It depends on how the campaigns on both sides are ran. Keep in mind, up until the general election campaign kicked off in the spring/early summer of 2012, Obama was pretty vulnerable to the likes of Mitt Romney.

[Alben Barkley]

Bubba curb stomps Bush, Obama wipes the floor with Trump.

This is prt of why I hate the 22nd Amendment. Truly great Democratic candidates only come around once in a blue moon, we really should be able to keep them as long as possible.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bubba curb stomps Bush, Obama wipes the floor with Trump.

This is prt of why I hate the 22nd Amendment. Truly great Democratic candidates only come around once in a blue moon, we really should be able to keep them as long as possible.

I doubt Obama curb stomps Trump given Obama barely managed to win FL in 2012 and that was with Paul Ryan as the VP candidate and when Democrats were much more popular with WWC voters which had also propelled them to victory in Ohio and Iowa as well. Keep in mind Hillary won more raw votes in Florida than Obama did and still lost that state by 1.2 points so I think Obama loses Florida as well. Ohio and Iowa pretty much became unwinnable for the Dems after 2014 so the best possible scenario for Obama in 2016 is to basically win with the Blue Wall Map + maybe NC which is 293 EV.

[GregTheGreat657]

2016:

2000:

[Agonized-Statism]

Oh boy I can't wait to get a notification


President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) / Governor Mike Pence (R-IN) ✔

Obama gets challenged by Sanders. Clinton, expecting her turn assuming the two-term tradition has held up until now, might cause problems too. Biden retires from the administration to grieve for Beau, the same reason he didn't run in 2016 IOTL. Between the apparent instability at the top, a second term more disappointing than his first, and his most popular opponent yet, Obama loses similarly to Clinton IOTL.

[Skill and Chance]

Bubba curb stomps Bush, Obama wipes the floor with Trump.

This is prt of why I hate the 22nd Amendment. Truly great Democratic candidates only come around once in a blue moon, we really should be able to keep them as long as possible.

I doubt Obama curb stomps Trump given Obama barely managed to win FL in 2012 and that was with Paul Ryan as the VP candidate and when Democrats were much more popular with WWC voters which had also propelled them to victory in Ohio and Iowa as well. Keep in mind Hillary won more raw votes in Florida than Obama did and still lost that state by 1.2 points so I think Obama loses Florida as well. Ohio and Iowa pretty much became unwinnable for the Dems after 2014 so the best possible scenario for Obama in 2016 is to basically win with the Blue Wall Map + maybe NC which is 293 EV.

Curb stomping is a fantasy, but it's pretty clear to me Obama would do well enough to win unless there is a massive 3rd term penalty (some evidence of this in 1940 when FDR broke the taboo?).  He wouldn't get outfoxed by Trump in terms of campaigning in the states that were actually close or assume a landslide like Clinton did, and he would still have a lot more personal appeal than Clinton.

I think Florida's very much in play and NC as well, but he would underperform Clinton in AZ and wouldn't get the massive swings in TX and CA.   

[OSR stands with Israel]

Im just gonna do every possible election since 1960 for this where it could have been applicable :


1960:



1988:



2000:



2008:



2016:

[AltWorlder]

Eisenhower would've been ancient against JFK

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm very much inclined to say both win reelection, though Clinton's and Obama's approval ratings in the high 50s and 60s during the final years in office may have been a reflection of the fact both were about to retire anyway. Approvals tend to go up once someone isn't running for reelection. In Obama's case, HRC and Trump being very unpopular candidates for sure made him look much better in comparison.



✓ President Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Al Gore (D-TN): 314 EVs.; 50.2%
Governor George W. Bush (R-TX)/Former Def. Sec. Dick Cheney (R-WY): 47.1%




✓ President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA): 293 EVs.; 50.7%
Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 245 EVs.; 46.0%

Biden would have retired here. Kaine was already among the runner-ups for VP in 2008.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

2016: