1992: Bob Dole is the GOP nominee

[Frodo]

Let's go with the following assumptions:

1. President George H. W. Bush decides not to run for re-election in 1992 (according to his son, George W. Bush, he was considering standing down), announcing his intentions in early 1992.

2. Sen. Bob Dole throws his hat into the ring, and easily beats Vice-President Dan Quayle and Pat Buchanan for the 1992 GOP nomination

3. He picks Rep. Jack Kemp as his running-mate (like he did in OTL in 1996)
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How does this affect the Democratic nomination battle?  Does Gov. Bill Clinton still win the nomination?  And how does this affect the 1992 election?  Would Republicans keep the White House for another four years?

[Vice President Christian Man]

Bill Clinton/Al Gore: 319 E.V./45% P.V.
Bob Dole/Jack Kemp: 219 E.V./44% P.V.
Ross Perot/Jack Stockdale: 0 E.V./9% P.V.

[Frodo]

Bill Clinton/Al Gore: 319 E.V./45% P.V.
Bob Dole/Jack Kemp: 219 E.V./44% P.V.
Ross Perot/Jack Stockdale: 0 E.V./9% P.V.

How are you so sure Democrats will select the same ticket they did in OTL?  Won't President Bush's retirement announcement change the dynamics of the race?

[Vice President Christian Man]

Bill Clinton/Al Gore: 319 E.V./45% P.V.
Bob Dole/Jack Kemp: 219 E.V./44% P.V.
Ross Perot/Jack Stockdale: 0 E.V./9% P.V.

How are you so sure Democrats will select the same ticket they did in OTL?  Won't President Bush's retirement announcement change the dynamics of the race?

After the losses of Mondale and Dukakis, the Dems wanted to nominate a moderate and Clinton being a Southerner was a plus since they were beginning to lose the South. Besides the possibility of Tsongas, I can't think of another candidate that would run and I don't see how Clinton's running mate would be different if Bush retired, seeing how both Dole and Kemp has no connections to Arkansas or Tennessee.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Honestly, I think the only '96 state he loses is Georgia, and he probably wins Arizona and Florida because Clinton has no Republican Congress to rail against. So yeah first map except Dole getting NC, but that state could've gone either way.