2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

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George Fernandes has died.

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Another upset: Jyotiraditya Scindia trailing badly at Guna and presumably defeated. Elsewhere in the state, Chhindwara continues its unique record of unbroken Congress victories at General Elections,* though with a new candidate (Kamal Nath's son rather than the man himself this time) it was close.

_{*It was once lost at a by-election so not quite unbroken representation.}

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Honestly, the takeaway from this election should be that ~75% of votes were cast for one of the two main alliances. I don't think anything like that has ever happened, except when the Janata party rose to oppose Indria, and even then it was a unique circumstance. Its also the clearest sign that:

-We are in a new political era
-The FPTP squeeze is coming for india
-Localists need to start picking sides.

Actually one huge factor in what has just happened appears to be that a lot of alliances between opposition parties backfired big time, to the benefit of the BJP. With the exception of the BSP they would probably all have won more seats had they run alone.

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The humiliation of Congress Princelings (literally in the one case lmao) is a theme: not only Rahul G. - Lord High Emperor of Failsons - doing the most Rahul G. thing ever and losing at Amethi, but see also the results at Guna and Rohtak.

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You mean 2019, not 2018, right?

Just a typo, yes. But as it's a provisional map I won't correct it - well, I will, but only when I remove the note that the map is provisional as well.

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So is this a symptom of the caste system itself being less relevant? Could this portend a post-caste India? After all, I note that Modi seems to have promised a lot more AA based on wealth rather than caste ("there are only two castes") - should we read anything deeper in this?

No. What is true is that the very specific sort of caste grievance politics that emerged after the Mandal Commission is floundering (but then it was five years ago as well: the RJD getting shut out isn't any more obviously symbolic than the same happening to the BSP), but that isn't the same thing as caste politics. Note that the SP polled poorly because much of their base was unhappy with the alliance with the BSP; this is pure caste politics.

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I'm a bit wary of saying that India's in the midst of transitioning to a national two-party/two-alliance system

Yeah, there's absolutely no evidence for this whatsoever. In fact there's only evidence of one thing: a BJP landslide. Turning that into POLARISATION is a big, big reach.

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As you can see, Congress managed to squeak out a late gain: the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

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Complete list of gains and losses, by party and constituency.

DMK gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Arakkonam
Tamil Nadu, Arani
Tamil Nadu, Chennai Central
Tamil Nadu, Chennai North
Tamil Nadu, Chennai South
Tamil Nadu, Cuddalore
Tamil Nadu, Dindigul
Tamil Nadu, Erode
Tamil Nadu, Kallakurichi
Tamil Nadu, Kancheepuram
Tamil Nadu, Mayiladuthurai
Tamil Nadu, Namakkal
Tamil Nadu, Nilgiris
Tamil Nadu, Perambalur
Tamil Nadu, Pollachi
Tamil Nadu, Salem
Tamil Nadu, Sriperumbudur
Tamil Nadu, Tenkasi
Tamil Nadu, Thanjavur
Tamil Nadu, Thoothukkudi
Tamil Nadu, Tirunelveli
Tamil Nadu, Tiruvannamalai
Tamil Nadu, Viluppuram

BJP gain from INC

Arunachal Pradesh, Arunachal East
Assam, Autonomous District
Assam, Silchar
Chhattisgarh, Durg
Haryana, Rohtak
Karnataka, Chikkballapur
Karnataka, Chikkodi
Karnataka, Chitadurga
Karnataka, Gulbarga
Karnataka, Kolar
Karnataka, Raichur
Karnataka, Tumkur
Madhya Pradesh, Guna
Maharashtra, Nanded
Manipur, Inner Manipur
Uttar Pradesh, Amethi
West Bengal, Maldaha Uttar

BJP gain from AITC

West Bengal, Alipurduars
West Bengal, Balurghat
West Bengal, Bangaon
West Bengal, Bankura
West Bengal, Barrackpore
West Bengal, Bishnupur
West Bengal, Burdwandurgapur
West Bengal, Cooch Behar
West Bengal, Hooghly
West Bengal, Jalpaiguri
West Bengal, Jhargram
West Bengal, Medinipur
West Bengal, Purulia
West Bengal, Ranaghat

YSRC gain from TDP

Andhra Pradesh, Amalapuram
Andhra Pradesh, Anakapalli
Andhra Pradesh, Anatapur
Andhra Pradesh, Bapatla
Andhra Pradesh, Chittoor
Andhra Pradesh, Eluru
Andhra Pradesh, Hindupur
Andhra Pradesh, Kakinada
Andhra Pradesh, Machilipatnam
Andhra Pradesh, Narasaraopet
Andhra Pradesh, Rajahmundry
Andhra Pradesh, Vizianagaram

BSP gain from BJP

Uttar Pradesh, Ambedkar Nagar
Uttar Pradesh, Amroha
Uttar Pradesh, Bijnor
Uttar Pradesh, Ghazipur
Uttar Pradesh, Ghosi
Uttar Pradesh, Jaunpur
Uttar Pradesh, Nagina
Uttar Pradesh, Saharanpur
Uttar Pradesh, Shrawasti

INC gain from BJP

Andaman and Nicobar Islands
Assam, Nowgong
Chhattisgarh, Bastar
Chhattisgarh, Korba
Goa, South Goa
Jharkhand, Singhbhum
Maharashtra, Chandrapur
Tamil Nadu, Kanniyakumari

BJP gain from BJD

Odisha, Balasore
Odisha, Bargarh
Odisha, Bhubaneswar
Odisha, Bolangir
Odisha, Kalahandi
Odisha, Mayurbhanj
Odisha, Sambalpur

INC gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Karur
Tamil Nadu, Krishnagiri
Tamil Nadu, Sivaganga
Tamil Nadu, Thiruvallur
Tamil Nadu, Tiruchirappalli
Tamil Nadu, Virudhunagar

JD (U) gain from BJP

Bihar, Gaya
Bihar, Gopalganj
Bihar, Jhanjharpur
Bihar, Siwan
Bihar, Valmiki Nagar

INC gain from CPI (M)

Kerala, Alathur
Kerala, Attingal
Kerala, Kannur
Kerala, Kasaragod
Kerala, Palakkad

BJP gain from CPI (M)

Tripura, Tripura East
Tripura, Tripura West
West Bengal, Raiganj

BJP gain from SP

Uttar Pradesh, Badaun
Uttar Pradesh, Firozabad
Uttar Pradesh, Kannauj

BJP gain from TRS

Telangana, Adilabad
Telangana, Karimnagar
Telangana, Nizamabad

INC gain from AAP

Punjab, Faridkot
Punjab, Fatehgarh Sahib
Punjab, Patiala

JD (U) gain from RJD

Bihar, Banka
Bihar, Bhagalpur
Bihar, Madhepura

JD (U) gain from RLSP

Bihar, Jahanabad
Bihar, Karakat
Bihar, Sitamarhi

JKNC gain from PDP

Jammu and Kashmir, Anantnag
Jammu and Kashmir, Baramulla
Jammu and Kashmir, Srinagar

SP gain from BJP

Uttar Pradesh, Mordabad
Uttar Pradesh, Rampur
Uttar Pradesh, Sambhal

CPI gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Nagapattinam
Tamil Nadu, Tiruppur

CPI (M) gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Coimbatore
Tamil Nadu, Madurai

BJP gain from INLD

Haryana, Hisar
Haryana, Sirsa

INC gain from Independent

Kerala, Chalakudy
Kerala, Idukki

INC gain from SAD

Punjab, Anandpur Sahib
Punjab, Khadoor Sahib

NCP gain from SS

Maharashtra, Raigad
Maharashtra, Shirur

YSRC gain from BJP

Andhra Pradesh, Narsapuram
Andhra Pradesh, Visakhapatnam

AD gain from BJP

Uttar Pradesh, Robertsganj

AITC gain from CPI (M)

West Bengal, Murshidabad

AITC gain from INC

West Bengal, Jangipur

AIM-e-IM gain from SS

Maharashtra, Aurangabad

AJSU gain from BJP

Jharkhand, Giridih

BJP gain from AD

Uttar Pradesh, Pratapgarh

BJP gain from AIUDF

Assam, Karimganj

BJP gain from JMM

Jharkhand, Dumka

BJP gain from RJD

Bihar, Araria

BJP gain from NCP

Maharashtra, Madha

CPI (M) gain from INC

Kerala, Alappuzha

DMK gain from PMK

Tamil Nadu, Dharmapuri

Independent gain from BJP

Dadra and Nagar Haveli

Independent gain from JD (S)

Karnataka, Mandya

Independent gain from SS

Maharashtra, Amravati

INC gain from AINRC

Puducherry

INC gain from AIUDF

Assam, Barpeta

INC gain from BJD

Odisha, Koraput

INC gain from CPI

Kerala, Thrissur

INC gain from TDP

Telangana, Malkajgiri

INC gain from TRS

Telangana, Bhongir

IUML gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Ramanathapuram

JD (U) gain from INC

Bihar, Supaul

JD (U) gain from LJSP

Bihar, Munger

JD (U) gain from NCP

Bihar, Katihar

LJSP gain from BJP

Bihar, Nawada

NDPP gain from NPC

Nagaland

NPF gain from INC

Manipur, Outer Manipur

MNF gain from INC

Mizoram

RLP gain from BJP

Rajasthan, Nagaur

SKK gain from SDF

Sikkim

SS gain from BJP

Maharashtra, Palghar

SS gain from INC

Maharashtra, Hingoli

SS gain from NCP

Maharashtra, Kolhapur

SS gain from SwP

Maharashtra, Hatkanangle

TRS gain from INC

Telangana, Nagarkurnool

TRS gain from YSRC

Telangana, Khammam

VCK gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Chidambaram

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Top ten percentages for the two national parties...

BJP

1. Gujarat, Surat – 74.5
2. Gujarat, Navsari – 74.4
3. Gujarat, Vadodara – 72.3
4. Himachal Pradesh, Kangra – 72.0
5. Rajasthan, Bhilwara – 71.6
6. Maharashtra, Mumbai North – 71.2
7. Haryana, Karnal – 70.1
8. Gujarat, Gandhinagar – 69.7
9. Rajasthan, Rajasmand – 69.6
10. Madhya Pradesh, Hoshangabad – 69.4

Congress

1. Kerala, Wayanad – 64.7
2. Tamil Nadu, Karur – 63.1
3. Tamil Nadu, Kanniyakumari – 59.8
4. Tamil Nadu, Tiruchirappalli – 59.3
5. Puducherry – 56.3
6. Uttar Pradesh, Rae Bareli – 55.8
7. Assam, Kaliabor – 55.1
8. Tamil Nadu, Thiruvallur – 54.5
9. Kerala, Idukki – 54.2
10. Karnataka, Bangalore Rural – 54.1

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Scenes from a day in the death of Indian Communism.