While exit polls cannot be released; projections that are based on surveys and not exit polls can be released.
Business standard reported on 3 such projections. One from Think Tank CSEPR, and two other from two separate psephologists. All 3 seems to have NDA under-performing pre-election polls
https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/pollsters-suggest-bjp-slowdown-in-dangal-2019-but-no-upa-gain-119051300113_1.html
Overall:
CSEPR: NDA 231 UPA 174
First psephologist: NDA 234 UPA 169
Second psephologist: NDA 204 (BJP 168) Pro-NDA parties (YSRCP, TRS, BJD) 50 UPA + anti-NDA parties 287(INC 117)
My projection: NDA (plus NDA allies) 258 (BJP 212) UPA 151 (INC 96)
UP:
CESPR: SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 30 INC 5
First psephologist:SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 30 INC 5
Second psephologist: SP-BSP-RLD 50 NDA 28 INC 2
My projection: SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 33 INC 2
WB:
CESPR: AITC 32 BJP 8 INC 2
First psephologist: AITC 31 BJP 9 INC 2
Second psephologist: AITC 36 BJP 5 INC 1
My projection: AITC 28 BJP 12 INC 2
Bihar:
CESPR: NDA 22 UPA 18
First psephologist: NDA 25 UPA 15
Second psephologist: NDA 20 UPA 20
My projection: NDA 28 UPA 12
Maharashtra:
CESPR: NDA 34 UPA 14
First psephologist: NDA 28 UPA 20
Second psephologist: NDA 28 UPA 20
My projection: NDA 33 UPA 15
It seems my projection which was pretty much the most pro-UPA out here has become more mainstream and becoming a relatively more pro-NDA projection. I still think most projections out there are underestimating the anti-incumbency in WB and Odisha and as a result underestimate the BJP seat share there. For UP and especially Bihar I might be wrong and need to converge my projection. My rule of thumb is "unless the state assembly election is recent, always go for the projections that is the most negative for the state government"
If the NDA gets only 200 seats in the LS then Modi is done, right? Probably a Ghandi premiership at that point?
