TRS's leader KCR claims that BJP will not cross 150 seats and INC will not cross 100 seats.
https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/bjp-will-not-win-more-than-150-lok-sabha-seats-congress-not-more-than-100-ktr-1553771784749.html
He is trying to create a narrative that a non-BJP non-INC government is possible. Math shows that it is not.
Using my current model, there are 193 seats where BJP and INC occupy first and second place. There is another 181 seats where BJP is first or second but the other party is not INC. There are 69 seats where INC is first or second but the other party is not BJP. For KCR's claims to be true (BJP plus INC is at 250 seats or less) out of the 250 seats where BJP or INC is in the running but not against each other (181+69) BJP or INC has to win only 57 out of them or around 20% since BJP plus INC will win 193 seats for sure between them. A strike rate of 20% when either BJP or INC is in the running versus another non-BJP non-INC is very unlikely. A strike rate of 50% would put BJP plus INC at 318 which I think is more where the election will come down to.
For KCR's vision of a majority that excludes BJP and INC a huge black swan event must take place.
Even in that case, since BJP and INC will almost certainly come in first and second, wouldn't the most likely scenario be still a BJP or INC government, just propped up by a ton of regional/minor parties?
Would a coalition of literally all regional/minor parties against BJP and INC even make sense?
