2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 64831 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #650 on: May 23, 2019, 07:18:48 PM »

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S019
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« Reply #651 on: May 23, 2019, 07:20:33 PM »


Orange Rajasthan and UP, Congress did really bad
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Computer89
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« Reply #652 on: May 23, 2019, 07:21:41 PM »


look at Kolkata lol
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #653 on: May 23, 2019, 07:36:13 PM »

This was probably the least suspenseful international election so far of this year. And as usual, the right wing party won. This was fairly expected though, so I don't feel that much like s*** this time.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #654 on: May 23, 2019, 07:58:20 PM »


Kolkata is actually AITC still, is the surrounding towns/suburbs/slums that are orange.

 
This was probably the least suspenseful international election so far of this year. And as usual, the right wing party won. This was fairly expected though, so I don't feel that much like s*** this time.

This should actually be one of the most interesting elections of 2019 (so far just behind Spain), its not everyday so see a country decide to unmake their system and reallign into a new era. its just not interesting from the birds eye view where India remains Orange. But this was an incredibly Bi-Polar election, with the unalligned/third-way blocks losing seats and votes to the big two blocks. The BJP was able to resist the traditionally negative caste/regional winds and give India truly national election for the first time in a long time. The INC was just playing an old game when the rules had already changed. But who knows if they will be able to reshape their brand in these next five years to reflect the new national system.


Oh, and I'll be having detailed maps on my twitter in the coming days, once everything is called and I can analyze states.
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Frodo
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« Reply #655 on: May 23, 2019, 09:21:13 PM »


You mean 2019, not 2018, right?
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jaichind
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« Reply #656 on: May 23, 2019, 09:34:04 PM »

So if 2014 map is similar to the Maratha Empire


Then 2019 map with NDA doing deals with YSRCP and BJD would be the Mauryan Empire


 
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« Reply #657 on: May 23, 2019, 09:41:27 PM »


You're forgetting about the time difference.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #658 on: May 24, 2019, 12:14:59 AM »

Here's another thought I had pouring over the results: in 2015, five states (Odisha, WB, AP, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu) elected near large numbers of local alliances. In 2019, those states that had concurrent locals (Odisha, AP) saw the local vote hold up better than in those states that didn't. Admittedly, AIADMK and YSRCP were always going to lose/win, the question was just by how much. The answer turned out to be 'a lot.'  Those that did not have concurrent local elections lacked their local message perhaps to counter the national message from or against the BJP.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #659 on: May 24, 2019, 12:50:50 AM »

Thanks for the explanation, Jaichind. I'd never thought of it that way but it does make sense.


This should actually be one of the most interesting elections of 2019 (so far just behind Spain), its not everyday so see a country decide to unmake their system and reallign into a new era. its just not interesting from the birds eye view where India remains Orange. But this was an incredibly Bi-Polar election, with the unalligned/third-way blocks losing seats and votes to the big two blocks. The BJP was able to resist the traditionally negative caste/regional winds and give India truly national election for the first time in a long time. The INC was just playing an old game when the rules had already changed. But who knows if they will be able to reshape their brand in these next five years to reflect the new national system.

Yeah, whether one is happy with the result or not (I'm not, of course), it does display some fascinating trends and portends a lot of implications for the future of Indian politics. I'm looking forward to hearing more about those.


Quote
Oh, and I'll be having detailed maps on my twitter in the coming days, once everything is called and I can analyze states.

Please post them here too! I don't have Twitter but I'd like to follow along.
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pikachu
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« Reply #660 on: May 24, 2019, 04:34:37 AM »

I'm a bit wary of saying that India's in the midst of transitioning to a national two-party/two-alliance system - if we look at results in West Bengal and Orissa, yeah there's been big drop from 2014 to 2019 for the regional parties, but if we compare to 2009, the BJP's around the same level of the Communists and Congress respectively. In a lot of these states, it doesn't look like the BJP is replacing regional parties; it's replacing whatever the national opposition to those regional parties was, whether it be the Congress or something else.

(I'm also skeptical that the INC is going to come up with a compelling enough alternative to have a national sweep when the BJP falters, but that's another story.)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #661 on: May 24, 2019, 05:25:06 AM »

You mean 2019, not 2018, right?

Just a typo, yes. But as it's a provisional map I won't correct it - well, I will, but only when I remove the note that the map is provisional as well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #662 on: May 24, 2019, 07:25:09 AM »

I'm a bit wary of saying that India's in the midst of transitioning to a national two-party/two-alliance system - if we look at results in West Bengal and Orissa, yeah there's been big drop from 2014 to 2019 for the regional parties, but if we compare to 2009, the BJP's around the same level of the Communists and Congress respectively. In a lot of these states, it doesn't look like the BJP is replacing regional parties; it's replacing whatever the national opposition to those regional parties was, whether it be the Congress or something else.

(I'm also skeptical that the INC is going to come up with a compelling enough alternative to have a national sweep when the BJP falters, but that's another story.)

It is not the death of regional parties but only those regional parties which are caste based.  YSRCP, TDP, BJD, DMK, AIADMK, and AITC are regionalism  forces not not caste based.  SP(Yadavs) BSP(Dalits) RLD(Jats), INLD (Jats), JJP (INLD splinter so Jats), RJD(Yadav), RLSP(Kushwahas), VIP(Nishads), JSP(Kappus), PMK(Vanniyar), PT(Velalar), HAM(Manjhi) all did poorly.    Only exception is BJP ally LJP in Bihar which is about representing the Paswans.
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« Reply #663 on: May 24, 2019, 08:19:37 AM »

So is this a symptom of the caste system itself being less relevant? Could this portend a post-caste India? After all, I note that Modi seems to have promised a lot more AA based on wealth rather than caste ("there are only two castes") - should we read anything deeper in this?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #664 on: May 24, 2019, 08:26:40 AM »

So is this a symptom of the caste system itself being less relevant? Could this portend a post-caste India? After all, I note that Modi seems to have promised a lot more AA based on wealth rather than caste ("there are only two castes") - should we read anything deeper in this?

No. What is true is that the very specific sort of caste grievance politics that emerged after the Mandal Commission is floundering (but then it was five years ago as well: the RJD getting shut out isn't any more obviously symbolic than the same happening to the BSP), but that isn't the same thing as caste politics. Note that the SP polled poorly because much of their base was unhappy with the alliance with the BSP; this is pure caste politics.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #665 on: May 24, 2019, 08:28:03 AM »

I'm a bit wary of saying that India's in the midst of transitioning to a national two-party/two-alliance system

Yeah, there's absolutely no evidence for this whatsoever. In fact there's only evidence of one thing: a BJP landslide. Turning that into POLARISATION is a big, big reach.
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jaichind
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« Reply #666 on: May 24, 2019, 08:38:08 AM »

I'm a bit wary of saying that India's in the midst of transitioning to a national two-party/two-alliance system

Yeah, there's absolutely no evidence for this whatsoever. In fact there's only evidence of one thing: a BJP landslide. Turning that into POLARISATION is a big, big reach.

Agreed there is no evidence.  There is an argument that the defeat of various caste based parties would mean some of their supporter flow back to INC. Of course it is just as likely they flow to BJP.  So the INC could benefit from this but it is not obvious that they will.
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jaichind
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« Reply #667 on: May 24, 2019, 08:40:34 AM »

I think all the votes are in

NDA  353 (BJP 303)
UPA 92 (INC 52)
OTH 97

At 52 INC still dose not get the Leader of Opposition position.
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jaichind
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« Reply #668 on: May 24, 2019, 09:38:47 AM »
« Edited: May 26, 2019, 09:54:11 AM by jaichind »

Some interesting state level swings

WB
                 Vote share                Seats
AITC        43.7%(+3.9%)         22 (-12)
BJP          40.6%(+23.6%)       18 (+16)
Left           7.5%(-22.4%)          0(-2)
INC           5.7%(-4.0%)            2(-2)

During the 1980s and 1990s it was Left vs INC in WB.  The collapse of Left and INC is now complete.  AITC is the new INC and bizarrely BJP is the new Left Front.   The entire Left Front vote has shifted over to BJP to combat AITC.


Odisha
                 Vote share                Seats
BJD           43.0%(-1.8%)         12(-8)
BJP           38.9%(+17.0%)        8(+7)
INC+         14.9%(-11.5%)        1(+1)

The INC base shifted to BJP but INC formed an alliance with CPI-CPM-JMM and actually won a seat as the BJP ate into BJD vote too.


Haryana
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP           58.2%(+17.2%)        10(+3)
INC           28.5%(+4.1%)           0(-1)
BSP-LSP      4.1%(-0.6%)            0
INLD           1.9%(-22.5%)          0(-2)
JJP-AAP       5.3%(+1.0%)           0

In 2014 INC splinter HJC was allied with BJP who has since merged back into INC.  LSP is a BJP splinter that is allied with BSP this time.  JJP is a INLD splinter that allied with AAP.  This is the complete collapse of the INLD voting bloc with most of it going to BJP and some going to INC.


HP
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP           69.7%(+15.8%)         4(--)
INC           27.5%(-13.6%)          0(--)

Amazing surge by BJP after INC held BJP vote share margin in 2017 assembly election to 49.2% vs 42.1%


Rajasthan

                 Vote share                Seats
BJP+        61.1%(+5.5%)        25(--)
INC          34.6%(+3.9%)         0(--)
BSP           1.1%(-1.3%)           0

In 2014 there were a bunch of BJP rebels whose vote seems like went back to BJP.  INC actually gained ground relative to 2014 LS election but the gap is too big.  In 2018 assembly election INC+ actually beat BJP 40.4% to 39.3%


MP
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP          58.5%(+5.5%)        28(+1)
INC          34.8%(-0.8%)          1(-1)
BSP+         2.8%(-2.4%)           0

INC actually mostly held its ground relative to 2014 but BJP ate into the rest of the non-INC vote share.  Back in 2018 assembly elections INC+ fought BJP to a tie in terms of vote share 41.5% to 41.6%.


Chhattisgarh
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP          51.4%(+1.7%)         9(-1)
INC          41.5%(+2.4%)          2(+1)
BSP           2.3%(-0.1%)           0

BJP and INC continue to eat into the rest of the vote.  Great recovery by BJP which was defeated badly by INC in the 2018 assembly elections 43.9% vs 33.6%.  INC support seems fairly stable. It is all about BJP taking over the non-INC vote or not.


Uttarakhand
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP          61.7%(+5.8%)         5(--)
INC         31.7%(-2.7%)           0(--)
BSP           4.5%(-0.3%)           0

In 2014 the BSP vote went to BJP.  This time it looks like BJP has kept that vote and continued to eat into the INC base.  Back in 2017 assembly elections BJP beat INC by a smaller margin 46.5% to 33.5%


Gujarat
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP          63.1%(+3.0%)        26(--)
INC          32.6%(-1.8%)           0(--)

Amazing to see how the BJP could add to its 2014 winning margin.  In 2017 the INC+ held BJP's winning margin to 50.0% to 43.3%


Delhi
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP        56.9%(+10.3%)            7(--)
INC       22.6%(+7.4%)               0(--)                        
AAP       18.2%(-14.9%)              0(--)

APP lost support to both BJP and INC in a very polarized election where the BJP gained a lot on top of a very strong 2014 performance.


Goa
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP        51.9%(-2.2%)               1(-1)
INC       43.6%(+6.6%)               1(+1)
AAP         3.1%(-0.3%)               0    

Chaos in the BJP Goa state government cost the BJP some votes and a seat
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #669 on: May 24, 2019, 09:50:39 AM »

I think all the votes are in

NDA  353 (BJP 303)
UPA 92 (INC 52)
OTH 97

At 52 INC still dose not get the Leader of Opposition position.

I have 355-90-97 as my final count...do you consider AD(S) part of the UPA despite being part of the NDA? For reference my count of UPA has INC-NCP-JD(S)-DMK-JMM-IUML-JKNC-Kerala Cong-+1 indie.
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jaichind
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« Reply #670 on: May 24, 2019, 10:14:54 AM »

I think all the votes are in

NDA  353 (BJP 303)
UPA 92 (INC 52)
OTH 97

At 52 INC still dose not get the Leader of Opposition position.

I have 355-90-97 as my final count...do you consider AD(S) part of the UPA despite being part of the NDA? For reference my count of UPA has INC-NCP-JD(S)-DMK-JMM-IUML-JKNC-Kerala Cong-+1 indie.

I just copied off the various news sites.  I did not doing the count myself since I was too lazy. Understand that the count will be different because of the issue of: What is UPA?  We can
1) Define UPA as a the union of various state alliances that includes INC. 
OR
2) Parties that are part of UPA

Which leaves us with questions like

a) Would we exclude NCP in Lakshadweep since INC ran against NCP there but 2) would include NCP in Lakshadweep
2) How to count 2 CPI 2 CPM winners in TN ? CPI and CPM are opposed to UPA nationally but those 4 seats were won by being in the UPA alliance in TN.

And yes, totally possible people might mess up AD vs AD(S) in UP. AD(S) is part of NDA and won 2 seats but AD is aligned with INC and ran an Independent candidate with INC support but got very little votes. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #671 on: May 24, 2019, 10:37:12 AM »
« Edited: May 24, 2019, 04:54:17 PM by jaichind »

Some more complex states

Punjab
                 Vote share                Seats
INC           40.6%(+7.4%)        8(+5)
SAD-BJP    37.5%(+2.4%)        4(-2)
AAP             7.5%(-17.0%)       1(-3)
BSP+        10.6% (+8.7%)        0

AAP have collapsed in Punjab.  AAP splinter PEP formed a BSP led from with BSP, PEP, CPI, LIP (SAD splinter), RMP (Leftist), and PF(AAP splinter.)    The AAP vote going in all directions help blunt the INC surge from 2014 and prevented an INC sweep.  AAP actually managed to hold on to a seat due to the personal appeal of one of its MPs and INC SAD splitting the anti-AAP vote.


Maharashtra
                 Vote share                Seats
BJP-SHS       51.3%(-0.5%)          41(-1)
INC-NCP+    35.5%(+0.5%)           6(--)
VBA-AIMIM    7.7%(+6.9%)           1(+1)
BSP              0.9% (-1.7%)            0

INC-NCP formed a larger coalition than in 2014.  INC-NCP got SWP to defect from BJP-SHS, retained BVA as an ally, got pro-NCP YSP to also join up, and got PWPI to stand down and back UPA.  An attempt to form an alliance with a Dalit-Muslim bloc BVA-AIMIM based on the old Dalit based RPI splinter BBM failed.  NCP also got NMS to stand down and de facto back UPA.  After all this UPA only fought BJP-SHS to a draw despite the BJP-SHS alliance being a last minute deal between frenemies BJP and SHS. Such is the power of the Modi wave that the net result was a draw relative to 2014.  AIMIM won a seat due to the Hindu vote split between INC SHS and SHS rebel allowing the Muslim vote to give AIMIM a shock victory.  
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #672 on: May 24, 2019, 10:44:14 AM »

I think the difference comes from  Viduthalai and the Revolutionary socialist party which I countied as unaligned, but some sites count as UPA. As you say, this gets weird - some sites don't count JKNC as UPA others do. Some count the eastern tribal alliances as NDA, some don't.
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jaichind
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« Reply #673 on: May 24, 2019, 02:59:59 PM »

Tripura see the amazing continued collapse of the Left front.  Historically Tripura is about Left Front versus INC-INPT where INPT represents tribal as opposed the ever growing Bengali majority and BJP as a minor force.  But this has chanced a lot last couple of years.  The Left Front have been dominate in Tripura for decades.

2013 Tripura assembly election

                      Vote share      Seat
Left Front             52.4%         50

INC                     44.1%         10

BJP                       1.5%           0

Then in 2014 LS elections saw an anti-INC wave that shifted INC votes to Left Front, Bengali based AITC and BJP

2014 Tripura LS election

                      Vote share      Seat
Left Front             64.8%         2

INC                     15.4%          0

AITC                     9.7%          0                   
 
BJP                       5.8%           0

IPFT                     1.1%          0

With IPFT being an emerging rival force to represent tribals

After the BJP captured power at the center it began an effort to move into Tripura given is large Bengali Hindu population.  BJP formed an alliance with IPFT.  The INC could not found a counter to BJP and BJP aggressive campaign pulled in INC voters who were shifting to BJP to try to defeat the Left Front.  The result was a shock BJP-IPFT victory as the INC vote completely moved over to BJP.

2018 Tripura assembly election

                      Vote share      Seat
BJP-IPFT               50.9%        43

Left Front             45.4%         16

INC                       1.8%           0


After the BJP took over the state government it broke the Left Front election machine and took it over.  For 2019 LS elections BJP broke off its alliance with IPFT now that it is secure in its power and rolled over the opposition. 

2019 Tripura LS election

                      Vote share      Seat
BJP                      49.6%         2

INC                     25.6%          0

Left Front             17.5%         0

IPFT                     4.2%          0

Some of the INC vote that went over to BJP in 2018 assembly election came back now the mission of removing the Left Front government was complete.  But after breaking and taking over the Left Front Clientelist network plus the BJP control of federal subsidies a large part of Left Front vote when over to the BJP producing a convincing BJP victory.   

So in rapid secession we went from a dominate Left Front vs INC to a dominate BJP vs INC with the Left now continues to decline to irrelevance.
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jaichind
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« Reply #674 on: May 24, 2019, 04:52:30 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2019, 08:53:26 AM by jaichind »

Some more complex states

Assam
                       Vote share     Seats
BJP-AGP-BPF        47.2%         9
INC                     35.8%         3
AIUDF                   7.9%          1
ex-ULFA                 2.7%         1
UPP                       1.8%

Back in 2014 it was

                     Vote share     Seats
BJP-UPP              38.7%         7
INC                     29.9%        3 (tactical alliance with BPF)
BPF                     2.2%          0 (tactical alliance with INC)
AIUDF                15.0%         3
AGP+                  4.0%          0
ex-ULFA              4.3%           1

AIUDF choose to only run in 3 seats and tactically back INC in the rest.  This lead to a polarization around BJP-AGP-BPF and INC.  The ex-ULFA independent MP was elected defeating BPF and UPP


Jharkhand

                      Vote share     Seats
BJP-AJSU             56.0%        12
INC-JMM-JVM       32.6%          2 (had tactical alliance with RJD)
RJD                      2.4%           0 (had tactical alliance with INC-JMM-JVM)
AITC                    0.5%            0

Back in 2014 it was

                     Vote share     Seats
BJP                    40.7%         12
INC-JMM-RJD      24.6%          2
JVM                    12.3%          0
AJSU                    3.8%          0
AITC-JBSP            4.1%          0

JBSP since merged into INC since 2014.  The grand alliance of INC-JMM-JVM and RJD seems to have kept their 2014 vote with some small amount of losses  but the BJP-AJSU cleaned up all the remaining vote to repeat their 2014 landslide.  BJP was suppose to be weak with tribal but it seems the Modi wave carried them over that.


Bihar
                                  Vote share     Seats
BJP-JD(U)-LJP                54.3%        39
RJD-INC-RLSP-VIP-HAM  31.2%         1 (tactical alliance with CPM(ML)+)
CPM(ML)-CPI-CPM            2.2%         0 (tactical alliance with UPA)
BSP                                1.7%         0

Back in 2014 it was

                           Vote share     Seats
BJP-LJP-RLSP            39.4%       31
RJD-INC-NCP            30.2%         7
JD(U)-CPI                 17.2%         2
CPI(ML)                     1.3%         0
BSP                           2.2%         0

Since 2014 RLSP joined UPA as did JD(U) splinter HAM.  VIP which was pro-NDA joined UPA.  But JD(U) rejoined NDA and it seems the 2014 BJP and JD(U) vote was able to merge to utterly smashed the UPA.  The NDA vote share here is the largest of any bloc since the 1977 JNP landslide.
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