2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

Muslim votes shifted to Congress in Delhi at last moment: Arvind Kejriwal

https://indianexpress.com/elections/muslim-votes-shifted-to-cong-in-delhi-at-last-moment-says-kejriwal-5734465/

AAP CM Kejriwal indicated that Delhi Muslim vote shifted to INC last minute.  Looks like he is making excuses for a clear defeat in LS elections.  It is clear that AAP will not win any seats and most likely BJP will sweep 7-0 although INC might come close in a couple of seats.

[jaichind]

Some contradictory projections coming out of UP.  One the one hand a key journalist at UP news is saying that SP-BSP-RLD will win 65 out of 80 seats.  The head of a state run university political think tank indicates that his projection for vote share are BJP 45% SP-BSP-RLD 35% which implies a good part of the anti-BJP vote went to INC who failed to cut into the BJP vote.  This would mean a BJP seat share of at least 55 out of 80.

[jaichind]

Left-Progressive Newsclick doubles down on meltdown of NDA narrative in their final projection (542 seats since Vellore election in TN have been delayed)




Comments:
1) They "fixed" some of their bugs from their previous projection to have UPA sweep Jharkhand which would make sense if it is a NDA meltdown
2) They have not fixed their Nagaland bug which I emailed them about where they still have it as "Other" (NPF) versus NPF splinter and BJP ally NDPP or INC since NPF dropped out to support INC
3) The only one exception of this NDA meltdown narrative is actually TN where they have NDA winning 10 seats out of 38.  If there was a NDA meltdown like they suggest then NDA would be in the 0-3 range in TN.
4) They have AAP getting 2 in Punjab and 3 in Delhi both which are pretty much impossible
5) They have Left front at 14 Kerala which also now seems very difficult
6) Overall every state except for TN they pretty much have the NDA worse caste scenario 

At least you got to give them credit to put this in writing.  In the 1% chance that NDA does completely fall apart they would look like prophets.

[jaichind]

Updated projection from me now that we are about to have the last phase of voting plus exit polls.
 Mostly the same as before with some minor adjustments.  I will re-calibrate after exit polls come out.

My basic approach is to view the election as a confederation of state elections.  The main driver being state level anti-incumbency.   If a state just held an assembly election then I tend to think polls underestimate the incumbent party,  if the state held assembly elections 1-2 years ago then I think polls tend to be par.  If the state had assembly elections 4-5 years ago then I tend to think polll overestimate the incumbent party.  

Based on that principle I created separate models every state to generate swings and also take into account key changes in candidates and alliance dynamics.   I did not take into account rebels yet so the vote share calculations are mostly overestimating the dominate parties.

J&K: I decided to break up my projection by each region (Kashmir, Ladakh, Jammu)

Kashmir:
Very low turnout so who knows what will take place.  But generally slight edge for JKN

2019
NDA:       0 BJP          2.1%
UPA:        0 INC         4.1% (tactically alliance with JKN)
Others     2 JKN        41.5% (tactical alliance with INC)
               1 PDP       30.4%
               0 JPC        14.9% (Separatist)

2014
NDA:      0 (0 BJP)                   1.4%
UPA:       0 (0 JKN)                34.9%
Others:   3 PDP                     46.9%
              0 JPC                       6.3%


Ladakh:
4 way battle with INC winning as it gains Buddhist vote from BJP

NDA:       0 BJP          23.6%
UPA:        1 INC         33.2%  
Others     0 ISK          28.1% (backed by JKN and PDP)  
               0 INC rebel  13.1%

2014
NDA:      1 (1 BJP)                 26.6%
UPA:       0 (0 INC)                22.6%
Others:   0 ISK                      24,2%
              0 INC rebel              26.6%


Jammu:
Hindu consolidation should see BJP through

2019
NDA:       2 BJP        46.3%
UPA:        0 INC       41.3% (backed by JKN and PDP)
Others     0 BJP rebel  5.0%
 
2014
NDA:      2 (2 BJP)                 48.6%
UPA:       0 (0 INC)                34.6%
              0 PDP                      8.7%


HP:
Mostly replicates 2017 assembly elections, high number of Upper Caste voters gives BJP a sweep.

2019
NDA: 4 BJP     53.7%
UPA: 0 INC     43.4%

2014
NDA: 4 BJP      53.9%
UPA: 0 INC      41.1%


Haryana:
INLD split with splinter JPP helps both BJP and INC.  BJP splinter LSP does not make that much of an impact other than in the seat of the LSP leader.

2019
NDA:      6 BJP              38.7%
UPA:      4 INC              30.9%
Others:  0  BSP-LSP        7.2%
             0 INLD              6.2%
             0 JJP-AAP        14.2%

2014:
NDA:     7 (7 BJP 0 HJC)        40.9%
UPA:     1 INC                       23.0%
Others: 2 INLD                     24.4%
            0 BSP                        4.6%
            0 AAP                        4.3%


Punjab:
AAP has lost a lot of ground since 2017 assembly elections.  They could have gone to SAD to hurt INC.  But most of that support seems to gone to AAP splinter PEP which split the anti-INC vote to help INC.

2019
NDA:     4 (4 SAD, 0 BJP)     34.5%
UPA:     9 INC                     37.5%
Others: 0 BSP-PEP-LIF         12.0%
            0 AAP                     11.9%

2014:
NDA:     6 (4 SAD, 2 BJP)  35.2%
UPA:     3 INC                  33.2%
Others: 4 AAP                  24.5%
            0 BSP                   1.9%


Delhi
AAP landslide victory of 2015 assembly elections is now a distant memory with AAP administration losing a lot of credibility.    AAP loses support  back to INC which means BJP sweeps the polls again

2019
NDA:    7 BJP     39.1%
UPA:     0 INC    30.7%
Others: 0 AAP    26.3%

2014:
NDA:    7 BJP   46.6%
UPA:     0 INC  15.2%
Others: 0 AAP  33.1%


Uttarakhand
Results will mostly mimic 2017 assembly election with BJP losing some ground due to anti-incumbency which is partly mitigated by Modi's popularity in the Hindu heartland  

2019
NDA:     4 BJP           47.4%
UPA:     1 INC           43.8%
Others  0 BSP             5.5%

2014:
NDA:    5 BJP    55.9%
UPA:     0 INC    34.4%
Others: 0 BSP     4.8%


UP:
SP-BSP-RLD Grand Alliance consolidates backward vote to beat back BJP.  INC resurgence in some seats and SP splinter PSP cuts into Grand Alliance votes and prevents even greater BJP losses.

2019
NDA:    33 (31 BJP 2 AD(S))                            40.1%
UPA:      2 INC-JAP (2 INC)                              11.1%
Others: 45 SP-BSP-RLD(24 SP 19 BSP 2 RLD )  41.8%
             0 PSP-PECP                                        1.9%

2014
NDA:    73 (71 BJP 2 AD)   43.6%
UPA:       2 INC                   8.5%
Others:   5 SP                   22.3%
              0 BSP                 19.8%


Bihar:
Nitish Kumar's popularity pulls NDA ahead despite anti-incumbency.  CPI(ML) has tactical alliance with UPA.
 
2019
NDA:   28 (14 BJP 9 JD(U) 5 LJP)                      47.6%
UPA:    12 (5 RJD 4 INC 2 RLSP 1 HAM 0 VIP)    40.0%
Others   0 CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI                               3.2%

2014
NDA:   31 (22 BJP 6 LJP 3 RLSP)         39.5%
UPA:     7 (4 RJD 2 INC 1 NCP)           30.3%
Others: 2 JD(U)-CPI (2 JD(U) 0 CPI)   17.2%


MP
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory but still INC makes gains in tribal and urban areas
 
2019
NDA:  17 BJP              47.1%
UPA:   12 INC             45.0%
Others 0 SP-BSP-GGP   4.6%

2014
NDA:  27 BJP     54.8%
UPA:    2 INC     35.4%


Rajasthan
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory

2019
NDA: 18 BJP (17 BJP 1 RLP)     50.7%
UPA:   7 INC                           44.0%

2014
NDA: 25 BJP    55.6%
UPA:   0 INC    30.7%


Chhattisgarh
Tribal votes seems to be shifting away from BJP which adds to the INC edge after the 2018 assembly election victory which will contain the Modi wave in Upper Caste areas.

2019
NDA:    3 BJP          42.3%
UPA:     8 INC         46.9%
Others: 0 BSP-JCC    5.4%

2014
NDA:  10 BJP    49.7%
UPA:    1 INC    39.1%


Jharkhand
INC-JMM-JVM  alliance will create a base too large for BJP to beat even with AJSU alliance, especially given anti-incumbency building up.  In the end RJD had a tactical alliance with UPA

2019
NDA:    5 (5 BJP 0 AJSU)                      41.2%
UPA:     8 (4 JMM 2 INC 2 JVM )            43.8%
Others: 1 RJD                                       4.3%
            0 CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI                   3.1%

2014
NDA:  12 BJP                            40.7%                
UPA:    2 (2 JMM 0 INC 0 RJD)    24.6%
Others:0 JVM                            12.3%
           0 AJSU                            3.8%


Gujarat
INC make s a slight comeback but the Modi wave is still powerful in his home state.

2019
NDA:  21 BJP        52.6%
UPA:    5 INC        42.3%

2014
NDA:  26 BJP                       60.1%
UPA:    0 (0 INC 0 NCP)        34.4%


Maharashtra
BJP got SHS to come aboard to an alliance which might not work on the ground.  INC and NCP deeply divided but does have de facto NMS support.  Dalit-Muslim BVA-AIMIM will split the INC-NCP vote and help give NDA a partial victory despite anti-incumbency.

2019
NDA:       33 (19 BJP 14 SHS)                             47.2%
UPA:        15 (5 INC 8 NCP 1 SWP 1 BVA 0 YSP)   42.3%
Others:     0 VBA-AIMIM                                       4.0%

2014
NDA:    42 (23 BJP 18 SHS 1 SWP)         51.6%
UPA:      6 (2 INC 4 NCP)                       35.0%
Others:  0 NMS                                       1.5%


Goa
BJP government in turmoil should give INC a chance

2019
NDA:  1 BJP     50.0%
UPA:   1 INC    43.7%

2014
NDA: 2 BJP    54.1%
UPA:  0 INC   37.0%


WB:
Left Front implosion and lack of INC-Left Front tactical alliance will doom Left Front.  BJP surges as it captures the anti-incumbency vote.

2019
NDA:      13 BJP             35.6%
UPA:         2 INC              7.5%
Others:   27 AITC           40.5%
               0  Left Front    13.1%

2014
NDA:      2 BJP           17.0%
UPA        4 INC            9.7%
Others: 34 AITC         39.8%
             2 Left Front   30.1%


Orissa:
INC imploding and anti-incumbency votes going to BJP leads to a shock BJP narrow victory here.  

2019
NDA:    13 BJP                         40.2%
UPA:      0 INC-JMM-CPI-CPM    20.2%
Others:  8 BJD                         36.6%

2014
NDA:     1 BJP     21.9%
UPA       0 INC    26.4%
Others: 20 BJD   44.8%


Karnataka
INC-JD(S) alliance will not work well on the ground letting BJP fight INC-JD(S) to a tie.

2019
NDA:        15 (14 BJP 0 BJP Ind)  47.5%
UPA:        13 (9 INC 4 JD(S))       45.7%
Otherss:     0 UPP                        3.0%

2014
NDA:   17 BJP      43.4%
UPA:     9 INC      41.2%
Others: 2 JD(S)   11.2%


AP
5 way battle and JSP splitting the anti-incumbency vote  allows TDP to avoid a total wipe-out. YSRCP most likely will back BJP post-election.  YSRCP alliance with TRS also drives some anti-Telagana votes to TDP.

2019
NDA:       0 BJP                       5.0%
UPA:        0 INC                      4.2%
Others:  20 YSRCP                 41.0%
              5 TDP                     35.3%
              0 JSP-BSP               10.2% (tactical alliance with Left)
              0 CPI-CPM-CPM(ML)   2.2% (tactical alliance with JSP-BSP)

2014
NDA:    17 (15 TDP 2 BJP)    48.0%
UPA:       0 INC                     2.9%
Others:   8 YSRCP                45.7%


Telangana
TRS to repeat the 2018 assembly election landslide.  CPI TDP are backing to INC to no avail as AIMIM has a tactical alliance with TRS.  YSRCP pretty much pulled out of the state to back TRS.

2019
NDA:      0 BJP                   13.7%
UPA:       0 INC                  31.6%
Others: 16 TRS                  45.4%
              1 AIMIM                2.7%
              0 JSP-BSP             3.0% (tactical alliance with CPI-CPM)
              0 CPI-CPM            1.0% (tactical alliance with JSP-BSP)

2014
NDA:      2 (1 BJP 1 TDP)     22.8%
UPA:      2 INC                    25.7%
Others: 11 TRS                   34.9%
             1 YSRCP                 4.5%
             1 AIMIM                 3.5%


TN
AIADMK split into splinter AMMK and anti-incumbency will defeat NDA despite the size of the alliance.  The NDA defeat could end up being worse than this.   NMN eats into the UPA vote or else it will be a massive UPA landslide.

Note Vellore election was called off but my projection will still be based on all 39 seats.

2019
NDA:      7 (3 AIADMK 2 BJP 1 PMK 1 DMDK 0 PT 0 TMC 1 PNK)         35.7%
UPA      32 (18 DMK 8 INC 2 VCK 2 CPI 2 CPM 0 MUL 1 IJK 0 KMDK )  43.8%
Others:  0 AMMK-SDPI                                                                    11.8%
             0 NMN                                                                                5.6%
              
2014
NDA:       2 (1 PMK 1 BJP 0 DMDK 0 MDMK)     18.7%
UPA:       0 INC                                                4.4%
Others:  39 AIADMK                                       44.9%
              0 DMK                                             27.2%


Kerala
Sabarimala temple issue will crush Left Front and lead to a large scale defection of Left Front vote to BJP who will finally win a seat in Kerala.  This and anti-incumbency will lead to a UPA landslide.  Rahul Gandhi running in Kerala is part of the UPA moving in for the kill.
 
2019
NDA:       1 (1 BJP 0 BDJS 0 KEC(T))              21.9%
UPA:      17 (13 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)  41.7%
Others:   2  Left Front                                   33.3%

2014
NDA:     0 BJP                                              10.9%
UPA:    12 (8 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)      42.5%
Others:  8 Left Front                                    41.6%


Assam
NDA was about to sweep the state until the new citizenship bill.  Now it is a real fight with anti-incumbency building up.  AIUDF only running in 3 seats helps INC partly but also drives Hindu votes away from INC to NDA.

2019
NDA:       7 (6 BJP 1 BPF 0 AGP)     43.3%
UPA:        4 INC                            38.4%
Others:    3 AIUDF                         11.0%

2014
NDA:      7 BJP                    38.7%
UPA:       3 (3 INC 0 BPF)     31.5%
Others:   3 AIUDF                15.0%
              1 ex-ULFA               4.2%
              0 AGP                     3.9%


6 Federal districts
I expect here to be a small swing away from NDA to UPA with INC gaining a seat

2019
NDA:     4 (4 BJP 0 AINRC)
UPA:     2 (1 INC 1 NCP)

2014
NDA:      5 (4 BJP 1 AINRC)
UPA:     1 (0 INC 1 NCP)


11 Northeast seats
Before the new citizenship bill NDA was going to sweep.  Now several pro-BJP parties are running separately and away from BJP.  Still NDA plus pro-NDA parties will have the edge.  

2019
NDA:     6 (5 BJP 1 NDPP 1)
UPA:      1 INC
Others:  0 Left Front
             4 pro-NDA (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 UDP 1 MNF)

2014
NDA:      4 (1 BJP 1 NPF 1 NPP 1 SDF)
UPA:      5 INC
Others:  2 Left Front


The total result of all this are

NDA: 252 (210 BJP)  39.3% (31.8% BJP)
UPA   154 (99 INC)   31.3% (23.1% INC)

Back in 2014 it was

NDA:  336 (282 BJP)  38.5% (31.1% BJP)
UPA:     59 ( 44 INC)  23.1% (19.3% INC)

So the BJP vote share are mostly similar to 2014 but INC saw a moderate increase.

In 2019
BJP will come in first place in 210 seats and second place 161 seats making its "reach" 371
INC will come in first place in 99 seats and second place 165 seats making its "reach" 264

In 2014
BJP come in first place in 282 seats and second place 54  seats making its "reach" 336
INC will come in first place in 44 seats and second place 224 seats making its "reach" 268

So INC's "reach" stayed around the same (it became more relevant in TN but lost relevance in WB, Odisha and the Northesst) and BJP's "reach" increased  by 40 some seats (mostly in WB, Odisha and the Northeast)

Rest of the seats are
Pro-NDA            4 (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 UDP 1 MNF)
Pro-UPA             7 (5 TDP 2 JKN)
Federal Front     44 (20 YSRCP 16 TRS 8 BJD)
Grand Alliance   72 (27 AITC 24 SP 19 BSP 2 RLD)
Left                   5 (2 Left Front 2 CPI 1 CPM) [2 CPI 1 CPM from alliance with UPA in TN)
Anti-NDA           5 (3 AIUDF 1 AIMIM 1 PDP)


NDA should be able to form a government with pro-NDA parties and some Federal Front party support.  YSRCP will for sure back NDA as most likely will TRS.  BJD might stay away to deal with its new rival the BJP in Odisha.

[jaichind]

Most media coverage are hinting that exit polls will show that NDA/BJP/Modi will come back to power although no sense by what margin.  I guess we will find out in a a hour or two.

[jaichind]

Former leading psephologist and now leader of AAP splinter Swaraj India and noted opponent of Modi and BJP seems to indicate that most likely the result will be around 260-320 for NDA with a BJP/Modi government.

[jaichind]

Voting ends.  Exit polls to officially come out in 30 min.

[jaichind]

Unofficial sources says C-Voter exit polls has NDA at 287 and BJP at 236.  Unofficial  Jan Ki Baat exit poll has it at NDA 295-315.  If true this would sort of make sense as Jan Ki Baat has a historical BJP lean.

[jaichind]

Odisha local channel Kalinga TV shows BJD landslide victory of BJD 20 BJP 1.  Big disappointment to BJP if true.

[jaichind]

Local AP Telegu channel TV9 CPS has YSRCP well ahead in their exit poll

[Oryxslayer]

Odisha local channel Kalinga TV shows BJD landslide victory of BJD 20 BJP 1.  Big disappointment to BJP if true.

You sure that isn't the 2015 graphic? Because if BJP is failing in Odisha, and the block is losing seats in AP, it's hard to square the high NDA+ number. Maybe what it implies is a failure of BSP? Or the INC failing outside of the south?

[jaichind]

India version of predictit Crowdwisdom

https://www.crowdwisdom.co.in/Allindia/Home?a=1

currently has the average projection at

NDA 280 (BJP 232)
UPA 153 (INC 103)

This means that UPA sweeps the South and does OK in the North while BJP smashes various regional parties in UP (SP BSP), WB (AITC), and Odisha(BJD).  This average projection views the election as a national election where voters are choosing a national bloc and PM that can effective rule India.

Final crowdwisdom projection is

           Seats             Vote share
NDA 275 (BJP 229)       42% (BJP 34%)
UPA  154 (INC 104)      34% (INC 25%)

[jaichind]

The panel of Republic TV to discuss the C-Voter and Jan Ki Baat exit polls looks like the Last Supper

[jaichind]

Odisha local channel Kalinga TV shows BJD landslide victory of BJD 20 BJP 1.  Big disappointment to BJP if true.

You sure that isn't the 2015 graphic? Because if BJP is failing in Odisha, and the block is losing seats in AP, it's hard to square the high NDA+ number. Maybe what it implies is a failure of BSP? Or the INC failing outside of the south?

I agree.  On the other hand Kalinga TV put this up as their projection.  I am pretty sure BJP will do better than this.

[jaichind]

Cvoter exit poll

[jaichind]

Times Now exit poll

[jaichind]

NewsX exit poll

[jaichind]

Regional breakdowns which I will study later seems to indicate BJP did lose ground in UP but its vote held up in other BJP strongholds like Gujarat and MP.

[jaichind]

VDP has massive landslide for NDA/BJP




But with vote share that seems not to indicate a NDA/BJP landslide

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat exit poll

[jaichind]

These exit polls really look like pre-election polls (except for VDP) done in April before the election started.

[jaichind]

News Nation seat share projection

NDA: 286 | UPA: 122 | Others: 134 (Total: 542)

[jaichind]

Poll of polls

[jaichind]

India Today EXIT POLL predicts
NDA-298
UPA -118
OTH 126

[jaichind]

TIMES NOW-VMR 2019 Exit Poll National (Overall) Tally:

BJP+ (NDA): 306
Cong+ (UPA): 132
Others: 104

Vote Share:

BJP+ (NDA): 41.1%
Cong+ (UPA): 31.7%
Others: 27.2%

It is interesting that their NDA vs UPA vote share is similar to my but have massively different seat implications than my projection