2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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jaichind
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« Reply #325 on: May 10, 2019, 04:58:49 PM »

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/trends-favour-bjp-but-cong-giving-tough-fight-in-mp/770665.html

The Tribune analysis of MP has it at BJP 16 INC 8 and Tossup 5.  Mostly in line with my BJP 19 INC 10 current projection. Even the regional breakdown projections seems to roughly mirror my.
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jaichind
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« Reply #326 on: May 11, 2019, 07:53:38 AM »

After 5 rounds of voting there seems to be an unsaid consensus that there is a reasonable chance that NDA will far short of majority, perhaps by some margin.  The opposition forces are now working to stitch up post-election alliances to prevent the pro-BJP President of India from calling the largest party (which will be BJP) to form the government by presenting a large anti-BJP coalition with a majority to the President of India when the results are out.

Just like before the campaign started, there are two such axis of effort and both stem from Telegu speaking parties, namely TDP's Naidu and TRS's KCR.  TDP's effort revolve around an alliance that includes INC which depending on the numbers could mean a INC PM or from an anti-BJP regional party.  TRS's effort revolve around a non-BJP non-INC group of parties with the understanding that BJP or INC (and more likely BJP) will support such a government from the outside.

There have been efforts like this before and they usually revolve or break from a bunch of such alliance "rules."  It might be useful to review these "rules" as some of them have changed.

a) AIADMK and DMK cannot be on the same side: This is still true but with AIADMK in the BJP camp and DMK in the INC camp this is pretty much not an issue.

b) SP and BSP cannot be on the same side: This is for sure no longer true as SP and BSP are now allies

c) RJD and JD(U) cannot be on the same side:  This is still mostly true but the 2014-2017 period saw a RJD and JD(U) alliance so I think this rule can be seen as changeable

d) TDP and INC cannot be on the same side: This is no longer true since these days INC and TDP are tacit allies and TPD mostly back INC in Telangana. 

e) AITC and Left Front cannot be on the same side: This is beginning to no longer to be true.  The surge of the BJP in WB means that for both AITC and Left Front view BJP as the main enemy which means both could be on the same side.

f) BJD and INC cannot be on the same side:  Mostly not true anymore since the BJP surge in Odisha means that BJD no longer sees INC as its main enemy.

Of course these Telegu based efforts did create a new "rule"

a) TDP and YSRCP cannot be on the same side: These two parties are deadly rivals now so this rule would make sense now. 

There are rumors about some post-election surprise alliances

a) BSP could go back BJP which seems unlikely unless BSP becomes the senior partner in UP which the UP BJP would almost not accept

b) YSRCP joins up with INC.  Of course this could destroy TDP where it would have nowhere to go as TDP have mostly, for now, burned its bridges with BJP

c) BJD could join up with INC.  Of course there are signs that BJP sense this as well and are going to overdrive to woo BJD.
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xelas81
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« Reply #327 on: May 11, 2019, 11:50:57 AM »

After 5 rounds of voting there seems to be an unsaid consensus that there is a reasonable chance that NDA will far short of majority, perhaps by some margin.  The opposition forces are now working to stitch up post-election alliances to prevent the pro-BJP President of India from calling the largest party (which will be BJP) to form the government by presenting a large anti-BJP coalition with a majority to the President of India when the results are out.
......

So, it seems likely that who ever becomes next PM will lead unstable coalition and probably not last 5 years before an election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #328 on: May 11, 2019, 03:35:34 PM »
« Edited: May 11, 2019, 03:47:39 PM by jaichind »

The quint reported on the trend of rural anger where government-NGO efforts for rural development sounded great at kickoff but follow-through was poor.  They went to one "Trump" village in Haryana when in 2017 an Indian government-NGO went on a campaign to build more toilets in this backward village of mostly Muslims where there are only 20 toilets for 160+ houses.  And in honor of Trump's upcoming visit to India the village was renamed "Trump" with great fanfare.





A recent visit by the The Quint there revealed that while some toilets were built but they were not operating due to lack of water making them useless.  Otherwise the situation in this village is just as poor as it was 2 years ago.
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Frodo
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« Reply #329 on: May 11, 2019, 05:56:15 PM »

What would be the best possible electoral result if you support continued Indian economic reform?

Analyzing Narendra Modi's performance on the Indian economy
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jaichind
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« Reply #330 on: May 11, 2019, 09:54:48 PM »

After 5 rounds of voting there seems to be an unsaid consensus that there is a reasonable chance that NDA will far short of majority, perhaps by some margin.  The opposition forces are now working to stitch up post-election alliances to prevent the pro-BJP President of India from calling the largest party (which will be BJP) to form the government by presenting a large anti-BJP coalition with a majority to the President of India when the results are out.
......

So, it seems likely that who ever becomes next PM will lead unstable coalition and probably not last 5 years before an election.

Yes, it is very possible.  Of course usually when an election seems like will throw up a result that could lead to chaos the voters tend to consolidate behind one the the blocs and produce a stable majority. 

If you look at this election from the point of view of Rahul Gandhi whose goal I have to assume that he wants to lead a stable INC led government and is willing to wait a election cycle or two to get it, his ranking preference of NDA (plus pro-NDA parties) seats would be among all possible outcomes with a granularity of 20 seats.

1. 180 - Rahul Gandhi is viewing 2019 as semifinals instead this would he will win game set match
2. 240 - There is no chance of a non-BJP government but it will be very unstable BJP government which will fall apart after a while after being constantly blackmailed by allies with the result of a midterm election that INC will win
3. 200 - A INC government would be formed but there will be heavy dependencies on various regional parties
4. 260 - BJP government would be formed but will be difficult to manage and even if it complete a full term INC is likely to win the next election
5. 280 - Similar to 260 but a bit better for BJP
6. 300 - Strong BJP performance means that next general election INC will have its work cut out for it to win even with BJP facing double anti-incumbency
7. 220 - No BJP government is possible but INC would be too weak to form a government.  INC would be force to back a bloc of regional parties that will form a government with a compromise PM.  This would be chaotic and will lead to INC losing support to BJP and then a midterm election that BJP will sweep.
8. 320 - Disastrous result for INC which will lose its position as a real national party and a realignment will take place with INC support flowing to both BJP and other rivals with 2024 being a very different battle with INC not a central player to fight against BJP
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jaichind
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« Reply #331 on: May 12, 2019, 09:02:25 AM »
« Edited: May 12, 2019, 12:22:24 PM by jaichind »

Phase 6 voting done. Prelim turnout by state vs rough 2014 turnout are

                       2019             2014
WB                  80.35%         84.9%
Delhi                59.73%         65.2%
Haryana           68.34%         71.5%
UP                   54.74%         54.4%
Bihar               59.29%          57.1%
Jharkhand        64.50%         65.0%
MP                   66.76%         57.0%

Turnout increased in MP which in this non-tribal area should be positive for BJP.  UP, Bihar and Jharkhand turnout around the same as 2014 which I guess neutral.  Haryana and Delhi turnout fell which is mostly negative for BJP.  WB turnout fell which I think is positive for BJP as this seems to indicate AITC Left Front and INC turnout has fallen.
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« Reply #332 on: May 12, 2019, 01:52:44 PM »

My dad believes the BJP needs to be in for at least 12-13 years to  change India and cement the changes for the long run, just like how the GOP needed 3 terms in 1980s to cement Neo-Liberalism and Thatcher needed to win 3 elections to cement in Thatcherism.


How many seats do you think they need to last 12-13 years(So up to 2027 or 2028)
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jaichind
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« Reply #333 on: May 12, 2019, 03:05:12 PM »

What would be the best possible electoral result if you support continued Indian economic reform?

Analyzing Narendra Modi's performance on the Indian economy

On paper it would be a solid majority for NDA.  I still feel Modi being out and having someone else from the BJP as PM would be better.  This demonetization was a disaster and all this fake economic data scandals all seems to be ways to cover up the impact of demonetization which continues to today.  An alternative would be a solid majority for UPA although while I do think Rahul Gandhi have matured as a campaigner this election cycle I think it would be a mistake to make him PM this election cycle. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #334 on: May 12, 2019, 03:08:55 PM »

My dad believes the BJP needs to be in for at least 12-13 years to  change India and cement the changes for the long run, just like how the GOP needed 3 terms in 1980s to cement Neo-Liberalism and Thatcher needed to win 3 elections to cement in Thatcherism.


How many seats do you think they need to last 12-13 years(So up to 2027 or 2028)

I would say something like NDA at 300-310.  That would ensure that in 2024 a weakened INC is still the main opponent.  A political realignment resulting from an even bigger NDA landslide could produce even more dangerous opponents for BJP in 2024.    I think at this stage the result will most likely be bi-model: It will either be NDA at around 300 or BJP under-performs and NDA ends up around 210 seats.  I think the chance something in between is getting less and less likely.
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jaichind
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« Reply #335 on: May 12, 2019, 03:14:08 PM »

PM Modi Says BJP Knows Art of Running Coalitions, Has Vajpayee's Legacy to Bank On

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/pm-modi-says-bjp-knows-art-of-running-coalitions-has-vajpayees-legacy-to-bank-on-2137609.html

Even Modi is now talking about coalitions.  I guess internally BJP now admits it will not be some BJP landslide which has been the BJP position this entire election season.  This is not good as it it shows the momentum is going against the BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #336 on: May 13, 2019, 06:36:30 AM »

What would be the best possible electoral result if you support continued Indian economic reform?

Analyzing Narendra Modi's performance on the Indian economy

On this topic

"India Hoped for an Abe. It Got a Lost Decade"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/india-hoped-for-an-abe-it-got-a-lost-decade/2019/05/11/638e0a94-7451-11e9-9331-30bc5836f48e_story.html?utm_term=.9639d0cc4a85

While I agree that Modi has been a disappointment I disagree Abe was that great either.  I would put the both of them in the same category.   Both talk big about economic reform but in the end came up with easy policies that help them get re-elected than any real lasting reform.    In 2014 I suspected this would be the case given Modi's record in Gujarat of mostly talk and PR and at lot less action but hoped that it would be different with a large majority as PM.  Instead it as the same.    I think both Modi and Abe are able administrators but neither are Thatchers or even Reagan.
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jaichind
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« Reply #337 on: May 13, 2019, 07:05:48 AM »

Anthro AI came out with post-6th phase voting on the ground report of UP and like the other rounds it gets more and more ugly for BJP

https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/he-freed-the-cow-whos-going-to-bell-yogi/

They now not just see SP and BSP voting bases fusing but also some the Upper Caste vote pealing off from BJP to vote for INC.  They predict at that BJP will be defeated in all 14 seats in the 6th found whereas in 2014 it was BJP 13 SP 1. One key implication of their projection is that Maneka Gandhi (daughter in law of Indira Gandhi) will lose her seat in Sultanpur which would be huge.  They also predicted that in one of the seats they see INC doing very well.  I suspect that seat is Pratapgarh where the AD(S) incumbent was dumped and the BJP candidate is an AD(S) import giving the INC ex-MP here a chance to come back.   I have it as SP-BSP 12 BJP 2 with BJP keeping Sultanpur  and Pratapgarh.

Their UP seat projection are now

SP-BSP-RLD    53 (+/-5)
BJP-AD(S)       22(+/-3)
INC                  5(+/-2)

Anthro AI identified BJP CM Yogi Adityanath the source of the fall of BJP fortunes in Eastern UP.  Namely his Thakurs caste are running wild with power aliening all other communities including Brahmin. 

https://theprint.in/politics/in-uttar-pradesh-dalits-and-yadavs-pretend-they-never-hated-each-other/234632/

Sort of alludes to this as well

Quote
“When Yogi Adityanath became chief minister, he had the CM’s residence in Lucknow ‘purified’ before he entered it. This was because Akhilesh was a Yadav. If we are all Hindu, what was the need for this purification ritual?” he asks.

Quote
These Dalit activists are part of a larger network, the Dynamic Action Group, a Dalit rights NGO. Its Lucknow-based chief, Ram Kumar, had been briefly detained by the police in 2017 when he was trying to protest against the government. The protest was to gift the Yogi government a 150-kg soap bar after the chief minister’s office had distributed soap and shampoo to Dalits before the chief minister visited them.

The way BJP CM Yogi Adityanath treats other social communities seem to be driving them away despite Modi's relative popularity.

The Anthro AI ground report shares many points with the NDTV ground report but disagree on others.    The areas the two ground reports seem to agree are

1) SP BSP bases of Yadav and Jatav Dalits seems to be fusing behind the SP-BSP-RLD alliance despite a history of animosity
2)  BJP CM Yogi Adityanath is unpopular and is hurting the BJP
3) Young men are going over to the BJP for nationalism

Things the two ground reports disagree about

1) Priyanka Gandhi is having an impact but NDTV claims she is driving non-Jatav Dalits toward INC but not Upper Castes while Anthro AI seems to indicate the opposite.  The NDTV narrative is very positive for BJP while the Anthro AI narrative is very negative for BJP.
2) NDTV indicates that BJP is gaining among women voters while Anthro AI indicates that women voters are moving away from BJP.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #338 on: May 13, 2019, 07:09:26 AM »

Modi is not really neoliberal at all. He is more of a statist and economic nationalist like Putin or de Gaulle. Take the Tariffs against Amazon and co. for example. His only substantial achievement in terms of economic reform has been GST and that was simply a rollover from Singhs Governement. The one thing he really has in common with Thatcher however is that both used a military conflict to win reelection when both have only questionable economic success in their first term.
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jaichind
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« Reply #339 on: May 13, 2019, 08:36:41 AM »
« Edited: May 13, 2019, 08:50:01 AM by jaichind »

In UP’s Ghosi, rape-accused candidate on the run, SP-BSP takes caste route
https://indianexpress.com/elections/atul-rai-sp-bsp-alliance-ghosi-elections-2019-5724372/

In UP's Ghosi where voting will take place later this week in the last round of voting the BSP candidate, Atul Rai,  has disappeared and is on the run due to rape charges.  


He will be on the run up to and including the election itself.  As the article points out looking at voting records of Eastern UP in the past the negative impact of this on BSP will likely be small.  My current model has BSP beating BJP by around 6%.  I see no reason to change my prediction of this seat which is a BSP victory.  Assuming Atul Rai  does win then he will have de facto immunity from these charges given he will be a MP given how slow the integration and prosecution will be.  His main problem will be how to sneak into the Parliament building  to the the oath without the police arresting him since before he is able to take the oath he will not have the status of a MP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #340 on: May 13, 2019, 08:48:56 AM »

Speaking of candidates with criminal backgrounds

1 in 5 Candidates Accused of a Heinous Crime in India’s Election
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/congress-bjp-leaders-play-mind-games-ahead-of-results/articleshow/69298350.cms

Quote
About 19% of those standing in the election face charges including rape, murder and kidnapping, New-Delhi based Association of Democratic Reforms said Monday, citing signed affidavits submitted to the Election Commission.

It seems around 40% of BJP and 39% of INC candidates have a criminal record.  I recall reading an analysis back in 2014 that indicated that having being charged with a serious crime (ape, murder and kidnapping) makes it more likely the candidate will be elected.   This is because such a candidate will most likely have muscle and money power which would be decisive in rural districts.
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jaichind
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« Reply #341 on: May 13, 2019, 11:39:31 AM »

While exit polls cannot be released; projections that are based on surveys and not exit polls can be released.

Business standard reported on 3 such projections.  One from Think Tank CSEPR, and two other from two separate psephologists.  All 3 seems to have NDA under-performing pre-election polls

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/pollsters-suggest-bjp-slowdown-in-dangal-2019-but-no-upa-gain-119051300113_1.html

Overall:
CSEPR: NDA 231 UPA 174
First psephologist: NDA 234 UPA 169
Second psephologist: NDA 204 (BJP 168) Pro-NDA parties (YSRCP, TRS, BJD) 50 UPA + anti-NDA parties 287(INC 117)
My projection: NDA (plus NDA allies) 258 (BJP 212) UPA 151 (INC 96)

UP:
CESPR: SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 30 INC 5
First psephologist:SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 30 INC 5
Second psephologist: SP-BSP-RLD 50 NDA 28 INC 2
My projection: SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 33 INC 2

WB:
CESPR: AITC 32 BJP 8 INC 2
First psephologist: AITC 31 BJP 9 INC 2
Second psephologist: AITC 36 BJP 5 INC 1
My projection: AITC 28 BJP 12 INC 2

Bihar:
CESPR: NDA 22 UPA 18
First psephologist: NDA 25 UPA 15
Second psephologist: NDA 20 UPA 20
My projection: NDA 28 UPA 12

Maharashtra:
CESPR: NDA 34 UPA 14
First psephologist: NDA 28 UPA 20
Second psephologist: NDA 28 UPA 20
My projection: NDA 33 UPA 15

It seems my projection which was pretty much the most pro-UPA out here has become more mainstream and becoming a relatively more pro-NDA projection.  I still think most projections out there are underestimating the anti-incumbency in WB and Odisha and as a result underestimate the BJP seat share there.   For UP and especially Bihar I might be wrong and need to converge my projection.  My rule of thumb is "unless the state assembly election is recent, always go for the projections that is the most negative for the state government" 
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #342 on: May 13, 2019, 12:10:48 PM »

While exit polls cannot be released; projections that are based on surveys and not exit polls can be released.

Business standard reported on 3 such projections.  One from Think Tank CSEPR, and two other from two separate psephologists.  All 3 seems to have NDA under-performing pre-election polls

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/pollsters-suggest-bjp-slowdown-in-dangal-2019-but-no-upa-gain-119051300113_1.html

Overall:
CSEPR: NDA 231 UPA 174
First psephologist: NDA 234 UPA 169
Second psephologist: NDA 204 (BJP 168) Pro-NDA parties (YSRCP, TRS, BJD) 50 UPA + anti-NDA parties 287(INC 117)
My projection: NDA (plus NDA allies) 258 (BJP 212) UPA 151 (INC 96)

UP:
CESPR: SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 30 INC 5
First psephologist:SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 30 INC 5
Second psephologist: SP-BSP-RLD 50 NDA 28 INC 2
My projection: SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 33 INC 2

WB:
CESPR: AITC 32 BJP 8 INC 2
First psephologist: AITC 31 BJP 9 INC 2
Second psephologist: AITC 36 BJP 5 INC 1
My projection: AITC 28 BJP 12 INC 2

Bihar:
CESPR: NDA 22 UPA 18
First psephologist: NDA 25 UPA 15
Second psephologist: NDA 20 UPA 20
My projection: NDA 28 UPA 12

Maharashtra:
CESPR: NDA 34 UPA 14
First psephologist: NDA 28 UPA 20
Second psephologist: NDA 28 UPA 20
My projection: NDA 33 UPA 15

It seems my projection which was pretty much the most pro-UPA out here has become more mainstream and becoming a relatively more pro-NDA projection.  I still think most projections out there are underestimating the anti-incumbency in WB and Odisha and as a result underestimate the BJP seat share there.   For UP and especially Bihar I might be wrong and need to converge my projection.  My rule of thumb is "unless the state assembly election is recent, always go for the projections that is the most negative for the state government" 

If the NDA gets only 200 seats in the LS then Modi is done, right? Probably a Ghandi premiership at that point?
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jaichind
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« Reply #343 on: May 13, 2019, 02:30:42 PM »


If the NDA gets only 200 seats in the LS then Modi is done, right? Probably a Ghandi premiership at that point?

If NDA is at 200 then Modi is for sure out and most likely it will not even be a NDA government.   The basic idea is that TRS + YSRCP + BJD should be at most around 55  so 200+55=255 is well less than majority.  NDA at 220-230 would mean a NDA government but most likely without Modi

As for what sort of government it would depend on the number of seats INC would have.  I would put the threshold at around 135.  If INC has 135 or more then the PM will be INC.  If INC is less than 135 seats then chances are that the PM will be a regional party compromise candidate with INC support from the outside.   NDA at 200 would put INC around that threshold.  NDA at 200 would mean BJP is around 175.  The rule of thumb in this election is the number of seats BJP plus INC should win is around 305-310.  So BJP at 175 means INC would be at 130-135 which is right on the threshold. 

Like I pointed out before on the game theory preferences for Gandhi the reverse is true for BJP.  If BJP could not get the NDA to something like 240-250 then they rather be down at 200 then 220-230 where it will have to form a Frankenstein government which would not last and lead to an easy INC victory in the next election. 
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« Reply #344 on: May 13, 2019, 02:42:46 PM »

I am not well-versed at all when it comes to Indian politics, but it does seems as if Rahul Gandhi, at the very least, has at last found his political groove. It is interesting talking to some of my Indian classmates, many of them quite seriously seem to believe the NDA won't be able to form a government at all. One, from Lucknow, said that Yogi Adityanath's unpopularity would drag down the BJP in UP, which does appear to be what's happening.
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jaichind
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« Reply #345 on: May 13, 2019, 06:11:07 PM »

With the limited data we have the momentum seems to be stalling for NDA.  If so there is a fair chance that NDA plus pro-NDA parties in the Northeast might not cross 272 for a majority.  If so where will the BJP find support to form a government.  The choices are the regional parties YSRCP, TRS and BJD.  I would rate the chances of these parties backing a BJP government as

YSRCP: High
TRS: Medium
BJD: Low

The stronger the BJP is in the state of the regional party the less likely said party will back a NDA government.  The BJP is the weakest in AP, has a base although very localized to urban areas in Telangana, and fairly strong and rising in Odisha.

YSRCP has already stated that it would back a NDA government at the federal level if they do not have the numbers if NDA would grant special status for AP.  Part of this is a ploy to get tactical voting by BJP voters in AP but with TDP clearly anti-BJP YSRCP clearly would lean BJP.  In fact AP might end up like TN where TDP and YSRCP would be like DMK and AIADMK  being the dominate local regional rivals and swap partners with national parties like BJP and INC from time to time.

TRS for the same reason will most likely back NDA if necessary given its main rival in  Telangana is INC.  Still it is clear that BJP has ambitions to grow in Telangana which would give TRS second thoughts.

BJD has been allies with BJP in the past and still has a fairly anti-INC stance.  But with this election where BJP could end up a strong rival to BJD if not pull of a surprise to beat BJD in the LS elections the BJD is unlikely to want to back BJP at the federal level.  In fact if BJP does usually well the question BJD would have to ask would eventually be: Should BJD form an alliance with INC.

Given the recent chatter it seems my game theory based approach to figuring out which swing party might go with whom is totally wrong.  It seems that BJD might be leaning toward backing BJP post election and YSRCP and TRS might be leaning toward backing INC.  YSRCP makes the most sense.  Given how TDP and BJP burned their bridges a YSRCP-INC alliance will ensure YSRCP domination in AP while TDP and BJP are not aligned.  The other two does not make sense to me but these chatter might be mind games they are playing.
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jaichind
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« Reply #346 on: May 13, 2019, 06:16:46 PM »

I am not well-versed at all when it comes to Indian politics, but it does seems as if Rahul Gandhi, at the very least, has at last found his political groove. It is interesting talking to some of my Indian classmates, many of them quite seriously seem to believe the NDA won't be able to form a government at all. One, from Lucknow, said that Yogi Adityanath's unpopularity would drag down the BJP in UP, which does appear to be what's happening.

If Modi is ousted from power then he would have thrown away a once in a lifetime chance at altering the political and economic trajectory of India.  I think in retrospect his mistake was not working with a bloc of INC MPs in the Upper House that would have backed a lot of his reform plans if he tried to work out deals with INC.  Instead he read the 2014 election as a massive realignment of the electorate where INC was reduced to a regional party and BJP will take on the dominance of politics like INC once did in the 1952-1977 period.  I think he instead should have read the post 2014 period more like the 1991-2014 period where INC had the upper hand but a BJP that can form the right alliance can defeat but with BJP instead of INC.

As a result Modi took the approach of trying to eliminate INC as a national party and converged to narrative that INC == Muslims == Pakistan which merely made all chance of BJP-INC cooperation inoperable.  As a result due to the NDA not having an Upper House majority Modi could not get as much down and have to fall back to Hindu nationalism to win.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #347 on: May 13, 2019, 06:29:57 PM »

A detailed version of the first First psephologist projections as mentioned in

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/pollsters-suggest-bjp-slowdown-in-dangal-2019-but-no-upa-gain-119051300113_1.html

Looks reasonable and for sure a more negative version of my projection for the BJP but still quite plausible as part of a NDA under-performance projection.  Some key details

1) This psephologist counts TDP as UPA which is really not true.  So UPA is really 167 and not 169
2) Sikkim's SDF should really be counted as pro-NDA so NDA is really 235 not 234
3) I rough guess for seats are BJP 194 INC 115.

BJP at 194 would be really dicey for Modi to stay on.  This sort of result will most likely be a BJP government form by someone other than Modi.

Other thoughts
1) INC at 4 for Telangana is a real shock.  I think INC would be lucky to win 1.
2) I am surprised given BJP's under-performance they they seat count in Chhattisgarh(4 out of 11) and Jharkhand(6 out of 14) would hold up so well.  Seems to indicate that the BJP drop in tribal support might be exaggerated.   
3) INC-JD(S) at 11 out of 28 in Karnataka is a real disaster and most likely the JD(S)-INC government will fall
4) DMK-INC winning 33 out of 39 TN seats would imply that AIADMK would get hammered in the TN assembly by-elections and the AIADMK government will most likely fall
5) I do like and agree with the fact that despite overall BJP under-performance it still have BJP doing reasonably well in WB and Odisha.
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jaichind
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« Reply #348 on: May 13, 2019, 08:46:35 PM »

It seems the amount of cash and other assets intended to be used for vote buying that have been seized by the ECI is around $500 million.  The estimated cost of the India 2019 elections is already up to $7 billion which has already exceed the cost of the 2016 US election cycle.  If you add in the implied amount of money being spent on vote buying the cost of 2019 Indian election on a per capita basis might be as high as 40%-50% of the 2016 USA cycle.  And that is in a country where the GDP/capita is well below USA.  If look at the spending in PPP terms the cost per capita is well ahead of the USA 2016 cycle.
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xelas81
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« Reply #349 on: May 13, 2019, 08:58:40 PM »

It seems the amount of cash and other assets intended to be used for vote buying that have been seized by the ECI is around $500 million.  The estimated cost of the India 2019 elections is already up to $7 billion which has already exceed the cost of the 2016 US election cycle.  If you add in the implied amount of money being spent on vote buying the cost of 2019 Indian election on a per capita basis might be as high as 40%-50% of the 2016 USA cycle.  And that is in a country where the GDP/capita is well below USA.  If look at the spending in PPP terms the cost per capita is well ahead of the USA 2016 cycle.

Where is does the captured money and other assets go?
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