2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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jaichind
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« Reply #300 on: May 02, 2019, 12:28:57 PM »

Sorry for the dumb question, jaichind, but is there any broad long-term movement/effort towards party consolidation in India? I've always found it interesting that major late-stage developing economics – namely India and Brazil – have such fractured partisan systems. It makes these elections very difficult to follow casually.

I think for a period after 1991 there was a move toward a consolidation into a 2 party system with INC and BJP as the two national parties.  While we still have two large national parties they are really two large regional parties that have strength in a large part of but not all of India.  The main issue is that the goal of both INC and BJP are nation building to create powerful organized nation-state that came become an international superpower.  While the methods are different (Indian rationalist secular nationalism for INC and Hindu-Hindi cultural hegemony for BJP) both approaches will meet regional resistance that would organize around language and/or caste loyalties to protect a regional identify and not be subsumed by a superstate.  The splintering of the party system is really about BJP vs INC in many states and BJP and/or INC versus a series of regional parties.   In each state the party system tends to converge toward something fairly simple.  Only in the deep South like TN and Kerala do we have large number of parties that reoriented themselves between 2-3 blocs  every other election.  The other one is Bihar.  Assam has this but that is more about the fact that on the long run Assam most likely should be bifurcated.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #301 on: May 03, 2019, 05:02:51 PM »

https://thewire.in/politics/elections-2019-bjp-hindi-heartland-lose

"Elections 2019: BJP Could Lose 75 Seats in Six Hindi Heartland States"

The wire analysis of assembly election results for 6 Hindi states and mapped them onto the LS election


Of course the whole media narrative is that for places like MP, Rajasthan and to some extent Chhattisgarh the BJP will outperform 2018 assembly election polls which would invalidate this sort of analysis.  The media points to polls that show BJP with large leads for BJP in MP and  Rajasthan. My compromise approach is to take the most pro-INC polls in these states which still have BJP with the edge but not a large lead to take into account the INC honeymoon.
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jaichind
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« Reply #302 on: May 04, 2019, 06:46:53 AM »

NDTV analysis of WB


Points out that WB has a fairly high Muslim population



INC has declined over the years and its base mostly going to AITC



Left Front also declined over the years and most of its vote going to BJP in response to AITC surge



Turnout has been high and is still high with women even higher than men



In Gorkha dominated North BJP is strong (only because of GJM support which is splintered this time). In Central WB there are high concentration of Muslims which had split their vote between INC, Left Front and AITC since in relative terms the BJP is weak.  This time with BJP winning over the Hindu votes here there will be a Muslim consolidation behind AITC.  In South WB where most of the seats are it will be AITC vs BJP.



Muslim vote in 2014 split between INC AITC and Left Front



This time Muslim vote will consolidate behind AITC



Muslim consolidation will trigger Hindu consolidation behind BJP in seats with high number of Muslims



BJP stronger with Upper Caste and Dalits although AITC stronger with Tribal vote



Like other areas BJP stronger in urban areas
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jaichind
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« Reply #303 on: May 04, 2019, 04:34:20 PM »

Pro-UPA media outfits are coming out with projections based on ground reports that are fairly negative for BJP

The somewhat anti-NDA wire reports that based on on the ground feedback that BJP likely to lose around 40 seats in UP and if BJP also loses ground in other Hindi states then NDA could be driven to around 220-225.  It also points out that various opposition parties also seem to have sensed this and are working toward a non-NDA government if the numbers work out that way.

https://thewire.in/politics/regional-leaders-karnataka-post-poll-alliance


Pro-INC National Harold seems more explicit on its on the ground projections
1) Kerala - INC+ bloc to win at least 16 out of 20
2) TN - DMK-INC to sweep
3) Karnataka - INC-JD(S) to win at least 16 out of 28
4) Maharashtra - INC-NCP to win at least 30 out of 48 (this is a shock if true)
5) Gujarat - INC to win at least 10 out of 26
6) Chhattisgarh  - INC to win at least 8 out of 11
7) Rajasthan - no ground reports other than 1 lean BJP seat seems to be going INC
Cool MP - out of 6 seats with ground reports INC wins at least 3
9) UP - BJP most likely down to low twenties in terms of total seats based on the seats that voted so far
10) WB - out of 13 seats that voted INC to win at least 2 - of course the part that has voted so far are the only places that INC have any chance.
11) Assam - BJP does not make gains from 2014
https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/upa-ahead-of-nda-after-first-four-phases-suggest-intelligence-reports

Some of these projections are far to pro-INC to be believed.  Still the dog that did not bark does tell us something.  These ground report saying that BJP did not gain in Assam does show that INC did not gain either and most likely lost ground.  Also no mention of Jharkhand most likely means that INC is not doing well there although I suspect INC allies like JMM and JVM most likely did well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #304 on: May 05, 2019, 08:31:56 AM »

Sorry to be on BJP's case all the time.  There seems to be some confusion on exact numbers coming out of the BJP.  A key BJP in WB this year is to create the impression (which is mostly true) that BJP is the main challenger to AITC and that all anti-AITC voters should come out to back BJP.  To counteract the fear that pro-BJP mobilization will meet with retribution from the AITC state government the BJP is putting out signals that a large number of AITC MLA will soon defect to BJP as soon as the LS elections show that the BJP has done well in WB.  The main problem is the BJP talking point cannot be consistent on the exact number of potential defectors.

In late March BJP leader Arjun Singh who himself is a recent defector from AITC claimed that 100 AITC MLAs will join BJP soon
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/west-bengal/100-trinamool-mlas-to-join-bjp-soon-arjun-singh/articleshow/68603304.cms


Then in late April Modi claimed that 40 AITC MLAs are in touch with BJP
https://www.firstpost.com/politics/narendra-modi-claims-40-tmc-mlas-in-touch-pms-appalling-remarks-underline-bjps-desperation-in-west-bengal-6546651.html


Then BJP leader Dilip Joshi said in an interview with NDTV that BJP are in contact with 100 AITC MLAs
https://youtu.be/aBQ63Ue5sZM?t=2413


Then just now Arjun Singh says that 60 AITC MLAs are in contact with him
http://www.orissapost.com/60-tmc-mlas-in-touch-with-me-arjun-singh/


The BJP strategy seems reasonable but they have to get their numbers straight for it to sound plausible. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #305 on: May 05, 2019, 08:35:15 AM »

'Boomerang' that never came back: How the BJP rose to prominence in Bengal and pushed CPM to the fringes

https://www.firstpost.com/politics/boomerang-that-never-came-back-how-the-bjp-rose-to-prominence-in-bengal-and-pushed-cpm-to-the-fringes-6528911.html

Is an interesting account of the BJP surge in WB.  After the Left Front was ousted by AITC in 2011 at the state level, the key Left Front cadres that lived off state government largess and protection was left out in the cold with nothing.  They sought shelter with the BJP to avoid attacks from the new AITC regime and were suppose to come back to Left Front during elections.  They never did.  The clientelist system the Left Front set up in WB to benefit its cadres which worked so well for so long became its undoing once it is out of power.
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« Reply #306 on: May 05, 2019, 09:07:04 AM »

How many rebel candidates (candidates who belonged to a major party but now are running as independent/mirco party) have a chance to win seats?
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jaichind
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« Reply #307 on: May 05, 2019, 09:41:26 PM »

How many rebel candidates (candidates who belonged to a major party but now are running as independent/mirco party) have a chance to win seats?

There are quite a few rebels.  I think none of them have much of a chance of winning except for

UP's Firozabad - SP splinter PSP leader and founder Shivpal Singh Yadav who is the brother of SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav is running against his own cousin.  At this stage it seems BJP might be pushed the third in this SP-PSP battle with SP having the upper hand.

Haryana's Hisar - INLD splinter JJP leader and founder Dushyant Chautala who has rebelled against the the other branch of the INLD family and is the current MP of Hisar.  Most of the INLD vote here most likely have flowed to JJP although most likely he will lose to BJP.

Punjab's Ludhiana - LIP founder and co-leader Simarjit Singh Bains and in theory SAD rebel, even though proto-LIP's rebeliionn predates 2014, is in a 3 way battle against INC and SAD.  LIP is allied with BSP CPI and PEP (which is AAP splinter).  Most likely INC will win.

As for independents the ones that could win (and I rate all of them as not expected to win) are

Kerala's Ponnani and Idukki where Left Front backed independents are running.  Both are likely to lose to INC ally IMUL and INC respectively.

In Mizoram, INC and ZPM have united to back an independent to take on the ruling MNF.  MNF is expected to win.

In Karnataka's Mandya which is a INC-JD(S) battleground district now has a JD(S) candidate backed by INC given the INC-JD(S) alliance.  A INC rebel emerged to take on the JD(S) candidate and backed by the BJP.  Despite local BJP support along with local faction of INC most likely JD(S) will win.

In Assam's Kokrajhar, an ex-ULFA (Assam Independence insurgency outfit) candidate won back in 2014 is now running for re-election.  Most likely he will lose to BJP ally BPF but he does have a solid shot at winning re-election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #308 on: May 06, 2019, 10:18:02 AM »

5th phase of voting done. Prelim turnout and rough  2014 equivalent turnout by state are

                  2019        2014
Rajasthan   63.75%     61.6%
MP             64.52%     57.7%
Jharkhand  64.60%     64.1%
WB            74.42%     81.3%
UP             57.07%      57.2%
Bihar         57.76%      56.5%

So turnout are roughly similar to 2014 except for MP (which went up a lot) and WB (which went down a lot).  Within the context of both these states these numbers are fairly good news for BJP and in WB fairly bad news for Left Front and to some extent AITC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #309 on: May 06, 2019, 09:15:50 PM »

I have been doing an analysis of the total vote per district that has voted and compared to the total votes in the same district in 2014.  Going state by state you have

AP - Voting totally done -> Total vote increased around  8% which seems to indicate that overall turnout is around the same as 2014.  Urban areas has a relatively smaller increase in total vote.

Assam - Voting totally done-  Total vote surged 18% which clearly is an increase in turnout.  Total vote increase higher in Muslim and Bodo areas.  Should be positive for BPF and AIUDF.  This also means that INC should be able to fend off the consolidation of the BJP-AGP vote in its strongholds.

Bihar - Voting partly done - Total vote increased 13% which increase a small but significant increase in turnout.  Going district by district, it seems turnout has decreased in some of the districts where BJP did well in 2014 but yielded to JD(U) and LJP which means the BJP-JD(U)-LJP alliance is not working perfectly.  Likewise RJD->VIP vote transfer also seems to have problems.  No clear trend until more district turnout numbers comes in.

Chhattisgarh - Voting totally done - Total vote increased 11% which indicates a small increase in turnout.  Higher turnout in places heavy tribal areas.  Mostly positive for INC and negative for BJP.

Gujarat - Voting totally done - Total vote increased 13% which increase a small but significant increase in turnout.  Urban area turnout lower while tribal and Patel area turnout higher.  Somewhat negative signal for BJP.

Jharkhand - Only 3 out of 14 seats voted - Total vote increased 26% which implies a large surge in turnout.  Given the fact that tribals are shifting away from BJP this is a fairly negative signal for BJP.

Karnataka - Voting totally done -  Total vote increased 13% which increase a small but significant increase in turnout.  Northern turnout where Lingayats  are more numerous tends to be higher while urban turnout are relatively lower.   Still mostly somewhat positive signal for BJP.

Kerala - Voting totally done - Total vote increased 13% which increase a small but significant increase in turnout.  Turnout higher in Rahul Gandhi's district as well as Muslim districts.  Christian district turnout relatively lower.  Urban turnout higher.  Mostly positive for INC and BJP and negative
for Left Front.

Maharashtra - Voting totally done - Total vote increased 11% which indicates a small increase in turnout.   Urban turnout relatively lower.  Muslim and Gujarati area turnout higher.  So the implications are mixed.  Gujarati turnout clearly positive for BJP but Urban area turnout lower is negative for SHS.

MP - 6 out of 29 seats voted - Total vote increased 24% which implies a large surge in turnout. Most of these districts are tribal areas which should be negative for BJP.  But this is not clear until we get to review turnout in non-Tribal MP districts.  If those districts also have a surge in turnout then that would be positive for bjp.

Odisha - Voting totally done - Total vote increased 10% which indicates a small increase in turnout.  Urban area turnout relativity higher but that seems to be regression to the mean.  All things equal somewhat positive for BJP.

Rajasthan - Voting partly done - Total vote increased 21% which implies a large surge in turnout.  No clear trend yet until other parts of the state votes.  But in absolute terms this is positive for BJP but tribal areas have even higher turnout which is somewhat negative for BJP.

Telangana -   Voting totally done - Total vote decreased 5% since the assembly election is not held unlike 2014.  Urban area turnout are relatively lower.

TN -  Voting totally done -  Total vote increased around  6% which seems to indicate that overall turnout is around the same as 2014 if not lower.  Turnout relatively lower in urban areas.  Place where AIADMK splinter AMMK have a viable candidate have relatively higher turnout.  All things equal this is negative for AIADMK-BJP bloc.

UP - Voting done in half the districts -     Total vote increased around  6% which seems to indicate that overall turnout is around the same as 2014 if not lower.  No clear trend yet.  In absolute terms these sort of numbers are negative for BJP.

Uttarakhand - Voting done in half the districts -    Total vote increased 10% which indicates a small increase in turnout.  The two districts where the INC have field heavyweight candidates which did not run in 2014 have relatively higher turnout.  All things equal positive signal for INC.

WB - Voting done in 18 out of 42 districts - Total vote increased 13% which increase a small but significant increase in turnout.  Muslim seats clearly have relatively higher turnout.  More firm trends can be derived when more urban areas vote.  So far this is negative for BJP but this is not clear until we look at turnout numbers in Southern WB.

At a marco level urban areas are seeing a smaller increase in total vote relative to rural and tribal areas.  All things equal this is negative for BJP overall.
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jaichind
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« Reply #310 on: May 07, 2019, 06:35:52 AM »

After phase 5 Anthro AI came out with their ground report in UP

https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/people-voted-for-vikas-in-phase-five/

It seems what is taking place according to them is what the BJP always feared, a rural backward consolidation in favor of SP-BSP-RLD.  They also implied a fairly safe BJP seat might fall.  When I emailed them asking if it is Lucknow they refused to answer but to say that a key demographic that always voted BJP is not voting BJP this time making an unnamed BJP stronghold (it has to be Lucknow using process of elimination) vulnerable.  My model has BJP winning Lucknow with a solid margin but that assumes that INC will keep a part of its base.  If Lucknow Upper castes swings to SP plus INC->SP tactical voting then it could get close in this BJP stronghold.  
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #311 on: May 07, 2019, 02:11:41 PM »

To do my seat-by-seat analysis of total vote caste with compression to 2014 I used a bunch of reports from ECI.  Overall the data QA of ECI is poor.

https://eci.gov.in/files/file/9997-final-voter-turnout-of-phase-1-and-phase-2-of-the-lok-sabha-elections-2019/?do=download&r=27101&confirm=1&t=1&csrfKey=1650383ca1dd13ee8a9a41bb431739e2

Is a report of all seats that voted phase 1 with turnout figures and comparison with 2014.  The AP numbers are disaster.  The problem is ECI failed to match up the 2014 numbers by district with the 2019 numbers.  The reason is that AP split after 2014 into AP and Telangana.  It seems that ECI uses as a "key" the district number which clearly got reset between 2014 and 2019.  Meaning district number X in 2014 is not the same thing as district number X in 2019 and will refer to two different districts.  ECI did not take this into account and their report had absurd numbers for AP where some districts had turnout rate increases of over 30%.  It also had turnout increase in AP of almost 9% which is not accurate.   My own estimate of AP turnout increase is around 2% at most (total number of vote cast increased around 8%.)  Any rudimentary QC process would have caught this.  Pretty disappointed with the lack of professionalism at the ECI. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #312 on: May 07, 2019, 02:25:32 PM »

PM Modi praises Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik on tackling Cyclone Fani

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/odisha-naveen-patnaik-modi-1518187-2019-05-06

Now that elections are over in Odisha, Modi praises BJD CM Naveen Patnaik on cyclone disaster.  He continues to attack WB AITC CM Mamata Banerjee on disaster relief as the WB elections are ongoing.

This tells us a couple of things.

1) BJP's internal assessment  must show things are not going so great and BJD might be needed to prop up a Modi government
2) BJP most likely did not do as well as they hoped in Odisha leaving BJD with a bunch of seats to bargain with.

Game theory would say that with BJP as now the main enemy of BJD after this election i fail to see why BJD will support NDA.  On the other hand if BJD could get a large pound of flesh in terms of federal subsidies  Naveen Patnaik  can present himself as the one that brings home the beacon to the Odisha voters.
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jaichind
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« Reply #313 on: May 07, 2019, 02:36:05 PM »
« Edited: May 07, 2019, 07:17:53 PM by jaichind »

After the 5th round of voting the various bookie projections are beginning to converge toward my projections.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/punters-say-nda-experiencing-engine-drag-after-phase-v-ians-exclusive-119050701210_1.html

1) NDA to win around 230-250 seats (I have 255 or 259 depending on definition of NDA)
2) UPA to win around 135-155 seats (I have 151 for UPA)
3) UP will be NDA 40 SP-BSP-RLD 36 INC 4 (I have it NDA 33 SP-BSP-RLD 45 INC 2)
4) Bihar will be NDA 25 UPA 15 (I have NDA 28 UPA 12)
5) WB  will see BJP win 10 seats (I have BJP at 13)
6) Odisha will see BJP win 10 seats (I have BJP at 13)

https://in.news.yahoo.com/satta-bazaar-predicts-regional-parties-124439226.html

1) Gujarat bookies have NDA at 185-220 !!!
2) Gujarat bookies have UPA at 160-180
3) Gujarat bookie have BJP at 19 seats in Gujarat (I have BJP at 21)
4) Delhi bookies have BJP at 22 seats in Gujarat
5) Mumbai bookies have BJP at 19 seats in Gujarat

This is an ominous sign for Modi.  In 2014 after each round of voting the bookie odds kept on going up for NDA/BJP.  Now this is going on the opposite direction.  A momentum based view of things could mean the result are even worse than these numbers for NDA/BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #314 on: May 07, 2019, 09:50:02 PM »

With the UP elections moving east all  parties are pulling out various talking points to try to shift votes in their direction.  It seems the main narrative so far is that the SP-BSP vote are merging on the ground so other parties are trying out talking points to shift votes in their favor.  The vote bloc most up for grabs are the non-Jatav Dalits.

Modi/BJP talking point "SP and BSP alliance will breakup right after the election" -> Agenda: Get SP and BSP voters to not vote for the other party by pointing out that these two parties will be at war again after the election

Modi/BJP talking point "BSP beware, SP-INC have a de facto alliance and is acting against BSP' -> Agenda: Try to stoke up fears of Dalits on possible SP betrayal so they do not vote SP.  Also hint at a possible BJP-BSP alliance to show Dalits that BJP is not anti-Dalit

Akhilesh Yadav/SP talking point "SP will back Mayawait for PM" -> Agenda: Try to calm down Dalit concerns that SP is not in it for the long run in its alliance with BSP and make sure the Dalit vote will vote for SP

Priyanka Gandhi/INC talking point "INC have nominated candidates in a way to hurt BJP in places where INC is weak" -> Agenda:  For seats where INC has a strong candidate INC wants SP-BSP voters to vote INC since INC is helping SP-BSP in seats where INC is weak

Mayawati/BSP talking point "Modi's is desperate so he is trying to split the SP-BSP alliance, this alliance is here to stay" -> Agenda: Dalit voters please do vote SP and OBC voters please do vote BSP since the SP-BSP alliance will be around for the long run

Mayawati/BSP talking point "SP-BSP will support the two Gandhis in their seats so they are free to campaign outside UP and defeat BJP outside of UP" -> Agenda: INC voters please vote SP-BSP since SP-BSP are helping INC outside of UP

Shivpal Singh Yadav/PSP (SP splinter) talking point "SP has to beware of BSP who will betray you just like 1995" -> Agenda: Yadav voters please do vote PSP instead of BSP since the BSP will betray SP soon.

As mentioned before, all these games seems to accept one ground reality: the SP-BSP vote bases seems to have fused so all these talking points are about how to preserve this fusion or try to break it up depending on the party.
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« Reply #315 on: May 07, 2019, 11:54:54 PM »

At a marco level urban areas are seeing a smaller increase in total vote relative to rural and tribal areas.  All things equal this is negative for BJP overall.

Hick Leftism Will Win
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jaichind
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« Reply #316 on: May 08, 2019, 07:23:55 AM »
« Edited: May 08, 2019, 07:31:47 AM by jaichind »

More political betting news

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/heads-up-for-bjp-in-delhi-but-one-man-magic-of-2014-missing-119050800398_1.html

The bookie projection for Delhi seems to be BJP 5 INC 2.  If so this pretty bad news for BJP and AAP.  The BJP had expected to sweep (which is still my view) given the AAP-INC split and AAP had expected to win some seats if the BJP were to lose seats.  It seems that the bookies feel that there is surge in support for INC in Delhi.

The 2 seats the bookies identified as INC wins are not implausible.  In North East Delhi INC is fielding former CM Sheila Diksh**t who has still fairly strong appeal (specially among Upper Caste swing voters) in Delhi.  In North West Delhi the Dalit BJP MP resigned from BJP and is backing the  INC candidate calling BJP anti-Dalit.  This could consolidate the Dalit vote around the INC candidate especially when the BSP did not field a candidate.  I still think both are more likely BJP wins but still I agree they could be close.
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jaichind
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« Reply #317 on: May 08, 2019, 07:42:01 AM »

Several state governments might fall after the LS elections are out.

1) TN.  With 22 assembly by-elections due to pro-AMMK AIADMK MLAs being disqualified, if the DMK were to sweep these by-elections then AIADMK will lose its majority.  And 3 more AIADMK MLAs have been disqualified after the elections for going over to the AMMK camp.  One way or another unless AIADMK sweeps these by-elections the AIADMK government will fall soon especially if the LS election results are negative.

2) Goa. 3 assembly by-elections are being held for 2 INC MLA defecting to BJP and being disqualified plus the death of a BJP MLA.  If the BJP loses these by-elections AND BJP loses 1 of the 2 LS elections for Goa most likely the BJP government will fall.

3) MP.  The INC holds a very thin majority which is partly based on SP-BSP support.  If the INC does badly in the LS elections in MP then most likely the INC government will fall from a combination of SP-BSP pulling support, INC MLA defections to BJP, and forces within INC opposed to CM Kamal Nath and aligned with  Jyotiraditya Scindia undermining the Nath government.       

4) Karnataka. The JD(S)-INC government is very shaky  with clear rebel factions acting up from time to time.  The ground reports are that there have been significant defections  by both INC and JD(S) votes to BJP and not voting for the ally party.  If the LS election results are negative for JD(S)-INC then the government will most likely fall.
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jaichind
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« Reply #318 on: May 08, 2019, 10:45:16 AM »

The BJP surge in WB is a clear demonstration of taking one step backward to take five steps forward.  In mathematical terms it is about the difference between a local maxima versus a global maxima which is why Simulated annealing is often a good technique to use in various AI approaches.

In particular BJP had to lose ground in WB to gain ground.   Back in the early 1990s in WB it was INC vs Left front with BJP in a distant third with a vote based of around 8%-10%.  Then in 1998 Mamata Banerjee, an avowed enemy of the Left Front, left INC to form AITC due to her anger that INC was working with the Left Front tactically at the national level.  BJP formed an alliance with AITC but that merely split the anti-Left Front vote and the alliance did not achieve the goal of defeating Left Front and in fact led to a Left Front landslides in 2004 LS and 2006 assembly elections which only seems to have eroded BJP's base.  Then INC had a falling out with Left Front in 2008 at the national level which triggered a AITC-INC alliance in WB to take on Left Front.  The AITC-INC battle against Left Front in 2009 LS and 2011 assembly election actually ate into the BJP vote base as all anti-Left Front vote consolidated behind AITC-INC.  As a result the BJP vote base was reduced to something like 4%-5%.  But this ended up a blessing in disguise.  The shift of the BJP vote to AITC-INC was critical to the defeat of the Left Front in 2009 and 2011.  The fall of the Left Front actually led to the disintegration of the Left Front vote base most of which went to BJP due to the decades long enmity between the Left Front vote base and  Mamata Banerjee.

So the lesson here was, the BJP had to go from 8%-10% vote base to a 4%-5% vote based for the Left Front to be defeated which freed up the Left Front vote to defect to BJP which now have a vote base of something like 30%-35% and the main opposition party in WB to AITC while Left Front and INC continue to shrink. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #319 on: May 08, 2019, 04:19:42 PM »

It is interesting to look at the talking point of different camps on what their views are what the result will be after the 5th round of voting.

The BJP is mostly sticking with their position that NDA will win a comfortable majority (perhaps 2/3) on their own.  Recently  BJP leadership started to admit that most likely BJP will need win a majority on its own (which implies that BJP will lose seats) but with allies will easily form the majority.

On the anti-BJP camp there are more details.

Pro-INC National Herald has on the ground based projections of the 5th round of voting

1) Out of 14 UP seats that voted which went BJP 12 INC 2 back in 2014 it will be SP-BSP-RLD at least 8 INC at least 2 and BJP 2 with 2 tossups. (I have BJP winning 3 INC 2 and SP-BSP-RLD 9)
2) Out of 12 Rajasthan  seats that voted which BJP won all 12 in 2014 will be see INC win at least 6 (I have INC winning 3)
3) Out of 7 MP seats that voted which BJP won all 7 back in 2014 the BJP could lose 4 seats. (I have BJP winning 6 out of 7)
4) Out of 7 seats in WB that voted which AITC won all 7 back in 2014 looks like AITC will beat back BJP in all 7 (I have BJP winning 2 of them)
5) Out of 4 seats in Jharkhand that voted which BJP won all 4 back in 2014 BJP will lose 2 of them. (I have BJP winning 3 of them)
https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/lok-sabha-elections-2019/fifth-phase-of-polls-bjp-set-to-lose-at-least-20-seats

A more dramatic projection comes from Left-Progressive Newsclick

https://www.newsclick.in/Elections-2019-5-Phase-NDA-Losing

The boldly have for the first 5 phases NDA losing half their seats from 2014




Their projection, I think are quixotic, especially for the Left front.

1) They have Left Front winning 2 seats in WB which seems very unlikely
2) They have Left Front winning 15 out of 20 in Kerala which is pretty much impossible
3) The run rate they have for UP have NDA there crashing to around 20
4) They have Bihar as even so far between the two camps
5)  They have slight edge for INC in Rajasthan
6) They do give the edge to BJP in MP so far
7) They have INC winning Gujarat ??!!
Cool They have UPA winning Maharashtra
9) They do have NDA doing OK in TN getting to 11 seats
10) They have NDA sweeping Jharkhand so far

What is interesting about this projection is they have NDA actually  over-performing in  Jharkhand  and TN which having unrealistically low numbers for NDA/BJP in other states.

The clearly have one bug.  In Nagaland they have OTHER winning.  I think they mean BJP's ex-ally NPF.  They must have missed the memo that NPF dropped out to back INC against BJP ally and NPF splinter NDPP.  The winner in Nagaland is clearly going to NDA or UPA and not OTHER  This mistake makes me question the seriousness of this projection versus just some anti-BJP hack coming out with some wildly poor results for BJP.
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« Reply #320 on: May 09, 2019, 06:58:16 AM »

BJP view of how the election is going so far does not have a lot on details.  It mostly admits that it will lose ground in UP but the loss could be contained.  It also feels that Modi is helping BJP toward victory in places like Karnataka Bihar and Haryana.  It also claims a surge in support for BJP in WB and Kerala but does not seem to indicate a large growth in seats there.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/news/bjp-survey-sees-groundswell-of-support/articleshow/69242974.cms
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« Reply #321 on: May 09, 2019, 12:20:20 PM »

Anthro AI came out with their UP projection based on the first 5 rounds

https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/the-undercurrent-is-an-earthquake/

The have

1) BJP 15-25 (closer to 15) [I assume AD(S) will be 0-1 based on this?]
2) SP-BSP-RLD 40-55 (closer to 55)
3) INC 5-9

This means the best guess for their medium projection would be something like
NDA: 19 (BJP 18 AD(S) 1)
SP-BSP-RLD: 54
INC:  7

While I have
NDA:  33 (BJP 31 AD(S) 2)
SP-BSL-RLD: 45
INC: 2

Their narrative is that various OBC voters that swung to BJP in 2014 LS and 2017 assembly will swing back to SP-BSP-RLD given their disappointment with BJP at the center as well as the state level. The movement away from BJP  are led by women voters.  Overall there will be a 3%-5%  swing away from BJP plus the consolidation of SP-BSP-RLD will smash BJP.

What the narrative does not address is how will INC win 5-9 seats.  The only way that could be is if in some seats there are large moments of Upper Caste and Muslim voters toward INC.  There does not seem to be any sign of this based on other ground reports.  In seems in some seats based on the candidate the INC could take some BJP Upper Caste voters but only enough to harm BJP but not enough for INC to win.

My model have a 3.5% swing away from BJP but does assume that the SP-BSP-RLD alliance is not perfect and votes will leak toward BJP which gets the BJP vote share below 2017 but not that far below.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #322 on: May 09, 2019, 08:20:23 PM »

Starting the last few days Modi started to shift his attack to former INC PM Rajiv Gandhi who is also father of Rahul Gandhi.

At first it seems like an one off

"Your father’s life ended as ‘Corrupt No.1’: PM Modi to Rahul Gandhi"
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/your-fathers-life-ended-as-corrupt-no1-pm-modi-to-rahul-gandhi/article27038808.ece

But after that within a couple of days Modi came back to continue the attack

"Gandhi family used INS Viraat as ‘personal taxi’: Modi"
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/gandhi-family-used-ins-viraat-as-personal-taxi-pm-modi/article27076591.ece

It did no take long to figure out Modi's plan.  He is trying to target the Sikh vote now that Punjab (majority Sikh), Haryana(significant number of Sikhs) and Delhi(significant number of Sikhs) are about to vote.  Due to the circumstances of Rajiv Gandhi's assassination by Tamil extremist LTTE in 1991 he is revered in TN.  On the other hand due to Rajiv Gandhi's proximity with the 1984 INC pogrom against the Sikh in the wake of the Indira Gandhi assassination Rajiv Gandhi invokes bitter memories within the Sikh community.  So Modi has to bring Rajiv Gandhi into the news and link him to INC AFTER TN has voted and BEFORE Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi voted.  Very clever move.  Not sure it will work but clever nevertheless.
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jaichind
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« Reply #323 on: May 10, 2019, 05:02:23 AM »

NDTV analysis of recent trends in UP especially with impact of Priyanka Gandhi

UP is heavy Dalit and Muslims


UP is heavy rural


Unlike Anthro UI NDTV feels that BJP is gaining among women


Youth vote leaning BJP


There seems to be extreme caste polarization that NDTV thinks works to the advantage of the BJP

Upper Caste going completely over to BJP


Core Yadav Jatav and Muslim votes of SP-BSP seems to be polarized and transferable


INC vote going up 10% as a result of Priyanka Gandhi which NDTV feels hurts SP-BSP


BJP losing ground with non-Jatav Dalits which is more going to INC than SP-BSP


Non Yadav OBC


I am not sure I agree that BJP is benefiting from the caste polarization in absolute terms even if they are gaining in relative terms due to the INC surge.  If you take the various NDTV non-polling inferences of vote by community you can compute the following chart and derive overall vote share. I assume that all 100% of the votes are divided between BJP+, INC, and SP-BSP-RLD for simplicity

                         Size        BJP      INC     SP-BSP
Uppe Caste         20%      80%     15%        5%
Yadav                 10%      15%       5%      80%
Non-Yadav OBC   30%      55%     10%      35%
Jatav                  10%      15%       5%      80%
Non-Jatav Dalit    10%      35%     30%      35%
Muslims              20%      10%     22%      68%

Total                              41%      14.5%    44.5%

Which does give SP-BSP a 3.5% lead over BJP even as INC surges to 14.5% of the vote.  A 3.5% lead by SP-BSP will not be a meltdown for BJP but will be a significant defeat.
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jaichind
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« Reply #324 on: May 10, 2019, 07:40:34 AM »

https://www.thequint.com/elections/bjp-seat-share-predictions-for-lok-sabha-elections-2019-by-ambit-report

Brokerage firm Ambit came out with a report with LS election projections

1) BJP to win 190-210 LS seats overall
2) NDA to win 220-240 LS seats overall
3) In UP BJP to win 30-35 seats with a vote share of 34.2% to 45% for SP-BSP-RLD

This projection seems to have BJP allies at around 30 seats.  If so then you can sort of piece out why BJP is under-performing pre-election polls as per this projection.  For BJP allies to be at 30 seems to suggest NDA under-performance in Bihar, Maharashtra TN and maybe Punjab.  The logic is simple.  Assuming NDA does well in these states then you would expect

a) Bihar - If NDA 28 seats then JD(U) plus LJP should at least 13
b) Maharashtra - If NDA gets 34 then SHS should be at least 14
c) TN - If NDA gets 10 then BJP allies should be at least 8
d) Punjab - if NDA at 3 seats then SAD should be at least 2

But if NDA allies are at 30 then in all these 4 states NDA will will under-perform those benchmarks by a significant  margin since one would expect AD(S) to win a seat (if BJP is at 30-35 in UP) and NDPP to win a seat in Nagaland.   The sum of the minimum allies seats in those 4 states are 38.  If they end up being 28 instead then NDA is looking at at something like 23 for Bihar, 29 for Maharashtra ,  5 for TN, and 2 for Punjab.  This also will go to explain how the BJP will end up in the 190-210 range.

Also in UP if the vote share are BJP 34.2% SP-BSP-RLD 45% then it will be a blowout and I suspect BJP seat count will be in the 10-15 range and not 30-35 range.
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