2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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jaichind
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« Reply #275 on: April 29, 2019, 10:01:54 AM »

Phase 4 voting done, turnout by state is along with rough 2014 turnout for those seats

                          2019              2014
Bihar                   58.92%          57.5%
MP                       65.77%         65.3%
Maharashtra         58.23%         55.8%
Odisha                 68%              75.7%
Rajasthan            64.5%           64.4%
UP                       57.58%         58.3%
WB                      76.44%         83.3%
Jharkhand            63.39%         57.3%

Most places turnout roughly same as 2014 which at least is neutral for BJP if not positive.  Jharkhand  has higher turnout which in the current context might be negative for BJP.  BJP targets of WB and Odisha turnout fell.  Hard to read that. Could be the old AITC and BJD vote not turning out and it could be a BJP surge or it could be the decline of the Modi wave of 2014.  Most likely both at the same time.
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jaichind
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« Reply #276 on: April 29, 2019, 10:47:20 AM »

If you look at my projection by state and the various bookie projections it is clear that the main difference are UP and TN whereas the other states I think we are pretty close. The gap between my projection of 31 seats for BJP (33 for NDA) in UP and the 45 for BJP in the bookie odds is large.

In the the 4th phase which ended I think we are entering into the decisive phases of UP.  In the first 3 phases in Western UP I think the districts are less elastic.  Western UP are dominated by Jats, Yadavs and Jatav Dalits.  All of them are fairly loyal to RLD (Jats), SP (Yadavs) and BSP(Jatav Dalits) although in 2014 the Jat vote went to BJP which is now back.  As a result the Upper Caste vote is fairly loyal to BJP in response. 

In Eastern UP there are almost no Jats and Yadav as well as Jatav Dalits are a lot less numerous.  Eastern UP is more dominated by non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalits which historically have voted for SP (non-Yadav OBC) and BSP (Non-Jatav Dalits) but in less loyal numbers and both bloc had significant movement to BJP.  Because  non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalits are not straight ticket voters the Upper Caste vote in Easter UP are also more fluid and can swing between BJP and INC.  In situations where the Upper Caste sense that Muslim vote might go INC then they could also vote INC if the BJP candidate does not have a Upper Caste background and with the Muslim vote with INC the chances of a OBC backed SP getting in is lower.

For the 2017 assembly election I looked over the results by district and created a rough "exit" poll by community.  The BJP won 2017 by winning over the non-Yadav OBC and getting some defections from non-Jatav Dalits.

A back-of-the-envelope calculation on the likely distribution of votes by community in UP.  The exit polls are all over the place on this so this is my best guess.

The current estimate of votes share by bloc are

BJP+    41.78%
SP+     28.25% (more like 28.5% once we add in SP backed independents)
BSP      22.40%
            
from there we can infer the breakdown by community

                        Share of
                      Electorate       BJP+       SP+       BSP                    
Upper Caste         20%           70%        15%      10%
Yadav                  10%          25%         65%       5%
Non-Yadav OBC     30%          60%         15%      15%
Jatav                   10%          15%          5%      75%
Non-Jatav Dalit     10%           35%        10%      50%
Muslims               20%          10%         65%      15%



So in Eastern UP it will come down to which narrative will win out:  A SP-BSP backward  (OBC Dalit Muslims) consolidation versus fowards or a BJP Hindu consolation (Upper Caste OBC Dalit) versus Muslims.  And there is the wildcard of INC where a Upper Caste INC candidate can eat into the BJP Upper Caste vote and a Muslim candidate can break SP-BSP.  There are also places where INC nominated a OBC candidate from the same community as the BJP candidate just to try to break BJP. There are also few places where INC has as strong non-Muslim candidate which could pull in Muslim votes and trigger dissatisfied  Upper Caste BJP voters over to INC.  So Eastern UP could be quite elastic in terms of what the results could be.  I eagerly wait to read ground reports on how things went today and in future phases.
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jaichind
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« Reply #277 on: April 29, 2019, 11:08:59 AM »

The security situation in Kashmir is so bad that the voting for Anantnag had to be split over 3 phases so security can be deployed to guard the polling stations.  Phase 4 which was today was the second of three phases in Anantnag where turnout was 10.5%.  Back in 2014 turnout in Anantnag was 17.4% so it seems that the massive security deployed will be able to keep the turnout from crashing to below 10%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #278 on: April 29, 2019, 04:10:12 PM »

India Today analysis of INC candidates caste background  when compared to BJP and SP-BSP-RLD candidates in UP concludes that INC to hurt BJP more than SP-BSP-RLD

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/congress-gathbandhan-uttar-pradesh-1513230-2019-04-30

Analysis concludes that other than the 8 seats where INC and SP-BSP-RLD have an alliance, INC is helping SP-BSP-RLD in 28 others seats with candidates that will eat into the BJP hase but hurt SP-BSP-RLD in 16 seats where the iNC candidate will most likely eat into the SP-BSP-RLD base.
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jaichind
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« Reply #279 on: April 30, 2019, 11:47:26 AM »

Modi's affidavit for his candidacy in Varanasi

https://suvidha.eci.gov.in/uploads/affidavit/2019/PC/S24/77/S2420190426023734.pdf

On page 2 it labels his wife as Jashodaben


Back in 2014 this was fairly controversial. 

Modi had married Jashodaben as an arranged marriage but it seems the marriage was never consummated.  A few month after getting married Modi left his/abandoned his wife to join the Hindu RSS organization.    Jashodaben  lived with Modi's parents for a while before moving back to her parents house although the marriage was never terminated legally.  Modi had joined RSS claiming he was single which is not really true.  In 2014 when he filed papers to run for a LS seat the affidavit required him to fill out his marriage status (the local Gujarat ECI allowed him to leave that section blank when he ran for MLA).  In order not to commit perjury he had to admit back in 2014 he was indeed married

To this day Jashodaben insist she is Modi's wife although she has not seen Modi since he left her to join RSS decades ago.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #280 on: April 30, 2019, 12:38:32 PM »

My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      
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FredLindq
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« Reply #281 on: April 30, 2019, 12:49:35 PM »

My prognosis for the five largest states:
Uttar Pradesh 80 seats
BJP 40, AD(S) 1 Total NDA 41
SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1 Total Grand Alliance 35
INC 4

Maharashtra 48 seats
BJP 21, SS 14, Total NDA 35
INC 7, NCP 6, Total UPA 13

West Bengal 42 seats
AITC 31
BJP 10
INC 1

Bihar 40 seats
BJP 15, JD(U) 13, LJP 3, Total NDA 31
RJD 5, INC 2, RLSP 1, VIP 1, Total UPA 9

Tamil Nadu 39 seats
DMK 16, INC 5, VCK 2, CPI 2, CPI-M 1, Total UPA 26
AIADMK 10, PMK 2, BJP 1, Total NDA 13








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jaichind
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« Reply #282 on: April 30, 2019, 03:15:37 PM »

My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      


Looks pretty reasonable and would mostly line up with most CW projections out there. 

A technical point of order would be "NPP 1, MNF 1, SDF 1" should not count as NDA but pro-NDA.  It really comes down to definition.    In Mizoram, Meghalaya, and Sikkim BJP ran its own separate candidate separate from NPP MNF and SDF so strictly speaking these parties do not have a pre-poll alliance with BJP even though it is clear they will back a BJP government.  Part of this is a ploy given the controversy over the new citizenship bill where the BJP running against these pro-BJP parties allows them to be able to pick up part of the anti-BJP anti-new citizenship bill vote. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #283 on: April 30, 2019, 03:28:59 PM »

My prognosis for the five largest states:
Uttar Pradesh 80 seats
BJP 40, AD(S) 1 Total NDA 41
SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1 Total Grand Alliance 35
INC 4

Maharashtra 48 seats
BJP 21, SS 14, Total NDA 35
INC 7, NCP 6, Total UPA 13

West Bengal 42 seats
AITC 31
BJP 10
INC 1

Bihar 40 seats
BJP 15, JD(U) 13, LJP 3, Total NDA 31
RJD 5, INC 2, RLSP 1, VIP 1, Total UPA 9

Tamil Nadu 39 seats
DMK 16, INC 5, VCK 2, CPI 2, CPI-M 1, Total UPA 26
AIADMK 10, PMK 2, BJP 1, Total NDA 13


Other than WB I guess these are what a good NDA performance would look like which is quite plausible. 

The one I disagree with the most is actually TN.    Frankly there are just so many things going against the NDA

1) AIADMK has lost their main vote fetcher and larger than life leader Jayalathia
2) AIADMK is split down the middle with the AMMK splinter
3) BJP has a poor brand and image in TN which has gotten worse with the BJP Hindi agenda
4) Current EPS-OPS leadership of AIADMK is viewed as weak and puppets of Modi
5) AIADMK government reaction on flood relief is poor and viewed as incompetent 
6) AMMK leader TTV Dhinakaran controls a good part of the cash horde of the AIADMK

Frankly I think there is a good chance UPA would sweep the LS polls 38-1 (Anbumani Ramadoss most likely will hold PMK fief of Dharmapuri).  I had to come up all sorts of reasons to handicap UPA to come up with a projection of UPA 32 NDA 7.  That involved

1) MNM would split a good part of the DMK-INC vote
2) DMK leader Karunanidhi death also took away DMK's greater than life campaigner
3) And of course money power
4) Anti-DMK feelings in the AIADMK core would still drive them to vote for BJP despite their negative views of BJP

I think the key factor here will be money power.  The amount cash involved in vote buying seems to be 10 times greater than 2014 and I guess is the wild care.  But even here AMMK and DMK have their own cash hordes so I am not sure that AIADMK would gain that much from throwing in money as both AMMK and DMK would be doing the same.  Most likely it will be a wash.
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jaichind
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« Reply #284 on: April 30, 2019, 03:49:53 PM »

Anthro AI continues is negative prognosis for BJP based on their ground report analysis for Phase 4 part of UP which just voted

https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/its-time-to-adjust-our-weights-for-the-bjp/

In Phase 4 of UP 13 seats voted.  In 2014 it was BJP 12 SP 1.

Before the voting Anthro AI seems to have it a BJP 7 INC 1 SP-BSP 5

Based on ground reports they seem to think the BJP will a lot worse than 7.

My current model has it as BJP 6 SP 5 BSP 2 for this batch of seats.

If you read their views on some of the seats they have

Kannauj : Sure SP win.  I agree since SP won here in 2014.
Unnao: INC advantage.  I have it as a BJP win as INC will not be able to get enough of the SP-BSP vote to switch over
Kanpur: INC-BJP tossup.  I have it as a BJP win as like Unnao INC will not be able to pull in enough SP-BSP voters to win
Jhansi: BJP will most likely lose.   I have as SP win by a good margin
Farrukhabad: BJP ahead but INC could come close.  I have it as BJP win as like Unnao and Kanpur INC could not gain enough SP-BSP vote to win.
Shahjahanpur: BJP likely to lose.   I have it as a narrow win for BSP.

Anthro AI now sees SP-BSP in a strong position as the voting moves further into Eastern UP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #285 on: April 30, 2019, 04:03:35 PM »

In phase 4 of voting which took place yesterday it include all of Mumbai of Maharashtra.  A key element on if the INC-NCP can regain ground in Mumbai from BJP-SHS would be how much of a factor Raj Thackeray play.  Raj Thackeray is the head of NMS which is a SHS splinter.
Raj Thackeray formed NMS in 2006 as a SHS splinter after it was clear that his cousin Uddhav Thackeray would be the potical heir of SHS founder Bal Thackeray.   Raj Thackeray NMS took on the SHS position of Martha regionalism along with anti-Muslim overtones and added to it anti-North Indian immigrants into Maharashtra as part of its political appeal. NMS was a force in the 2009 LS and assembly elections and severely managed SHS.  The Modi wave of 2014 marginalized NMS and Raj Thackeray's attempt to ride the Modi wave but run against SHS fell flat on his face.  After 2014 Raj Thackeray and NMS political fortunes fell rapidity.
 

For 2019 Raj Thackeray re-invited himself as an anti-Modi evangelist.  NMS did not give up its Maratha anti-Muslim anti-Northern Indian narrative but started to bash Modi-Shah which also has anti-Gujarati overtones.    Raj Thackeray clearly detected clear anti-Modi frustration in the SHS core and after BJP-SHS formed an alliance threw himself as the spearhead of the anti-Modi movement in Maharashtra to try to pick up the anti-Modi SHS base.   Raj Thackeray wanted to join the INC-NCP alliance but was opposed by INC due to INC's fear of impact on its chances in Northern India  given  Raj Thackeray's anti-Northern Indian narrative.  Raj Thackeray then decided to not run any candidates and just started to campaign against Modi, especially in seats where SHS is running.   Raj Thackeray became such a successful and effective speaker against that INC-NCP candidates are rushing to get  Raj Thackeray to come to their constituency to speak and campaign for them.

 Raj Thackeray's real goal is the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections in late 2019.  Not sure what will take place.  NMS might join an INC-NCP alliance or have an alliance with NCP and a tactical alliance with INC  One way or another  Raj Thackeray is a man with a plan.  He is planning to gain political capital this 2019 LS election so he can work to take away the SHS base in 2019 assembly elections.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #286 on: May 01, 2019, 08:49:04 AM »

After half of Rajasthan voted the betting markets there went from BJP winning 18-20 seats to 20-22 seats.  If so this would go against the historical trends last few cycles where the assembly winner gains in the LS election relative to the assembly.  The main exception was the 1999 Vajpayee where the BJP overturned the 1998 INC assembly election victory. Even then it was BJP 16 INC 9 and not INC driven down to 3-5 seats.

https://www.indiatvnews.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections-2019-betting-high-on-modi-s-return-jodhpur-bookies-predict-near-sweep-by-bjp-in-rajasthan-517319
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jaichind
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« Reply #287 on: May 01, 2019, 11:12:40 AM »

My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      


I was trying to reverse engineer your projection.  I have a couple of questions

It seems you have some text cut off in  "Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52"  Assuming you mean AD(S) 1 (from your UP projection) the list you have add up to 50 and not 52.  Which are the other 2 NDA allies seat.  I assume it has to be at least RLP in Rajastahan.  What is the other one?  ADSU in Jharkhand (not that likely as the only seats AJSU is running is in a strong JMM district) ? AGP in Assam (again not that likely since the 3 seats AGP are running in are in fairly strong INC or INC-AIUDF seats), pro-BJP independent in Karnataka (that one seems most likely) ?

Also in "Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4" Who is the independent ?  I assume it is the ex-ULFA incumbent from Kokrajhar in Assam ? 
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FredLindq
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« Reply #288 on: May 01, 2019, 12:17:15 PM »

My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      


Looks pretty reasonable and would mostly line up with most CW projections out there. 

A technical point of order would be "NPP 1, MNF 1, SDF 1" should not count as NDA but pro-NDA.  It really comes down to definition.    In Mizoram, Meghalaya, and Sikkim BJP ran its own separate candidate separate from NPP MNF and SDF so strictly speaking these parties do not have a pre-poll alliance with BJP even though it is clear they will back a BJP government.  Part of this is a ploy given the controversy over the new citizenship bill where the BJP running against these pro-BJP parties allows them to be able to pick up part of the anti-BJP anti-new citizenship bill vote. 

I put them as NDA since they are still members of North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) and guverns with BJP in Meghalaya. I do not know how the BJP MLA in Mizoram votes. UDP has left NEDA but guverns with BJP and other NEDA parties such as NPP.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #289 on: May 01, 2019, 01:04:05 PM »

My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      


I was trying to reverse engineer your projection.  I have a couple of questions

It seems you have some text cut off in  "Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52"  Assuming you mean AD(S) 1 (from your UP projection) the list you have add up to 50 and not 52.  Which are the other 2 NDA allies seat.  I assume it has to be at least RLP in Rajastahan.  What is the other one?  ADSU in Jharkhand (not that likely as the only seats AJSU is running is in a strong JMM district) ? AGP in Assam (again not that likely since the 3 seats AGP are running in are in fairly strong INC or INC-AIUDF seats), pro-BJP independent in Karnataka (that one seems most likely) ?

Also in "Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4" Who is the independent ?  I assume it is the ex-ULFA incumbent from Kokrajhar in Assam ? 

Correction (Two seats in Teleanga was in the wrong column, was Other NDA should be in INC).

BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S) 1   50   
Total NDA   279   51,38%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   327   60,22%
INC   90   16,57%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   134   24,68%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   212   39,04%
Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
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FredLindq
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« Reply #290 on: May 01, 2019, 01:07:10 PM »

My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      


I was trying to reverse engineer your projection.  I have a couple of questions

It seems you have some text cut off in  "Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52"  Assuming you mean AD(S) 1 (from your UP projection) the list you have add up to 50 and not 52.  Which are the other 2 NDA allies seat.  I assume it has to be at least RLP in Rajastahan.  What is the other one?  ADSU in Jharkhand (not that likely as the only seats AJSU is running is in a strong JMM district) ? AGP in Assam (again not that likely since the 3 seats AGP are running in are in fairly strong INC or INC-AIUDF seats), pro-BJP independent in Karnataka (that one seems most likely) ?

Also in "Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4" Who is the independent ?  I assume it is the ex-ULFA incumbent from Kokrajhar in Assam ? 

Correct! The indpendent is Naba Kumar Sarania  from Kokrajhar  in Assam. I do not Think that BPF can beat him.
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Computer89
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« Reply #291 on: May 01, 2019, 01:18:34 PM »

How was 2014 looking at this point
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jaichind
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« Reply #292 on: May 01, 2019, 04:05:24 PM »


Correction (Two seats in Teleanga was in the wrong column, was Other NDA should be in INC).

BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S) 1   50   
Total NDA   279   51,38%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   327   60,22%
INC   90   16,57%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   134   24,68%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   212   39,04%
Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   


Thanks for sharing.  This sounds like a pretty reasonable projection assuming a modest Modi wave in the Hindu North and West plus some solid but not massive gains in the East and AIADMK-BJP holding a lot of the old AIADMK base in TN.

One feedback.  Given your projection you should consider giving RLP  a seat in Rajasthan where the BJP splinter is part of the NDA and running in Nagaur.  Your projection seems to imply something like 20-5 win for BJP in Rajasthan and if so then most likely RLP will win its seat too.

As for the Northeast I would say that if you are going to view NPP as NDA then you should consider UDF as NDA as well.  In Meghalaya right now it is really NPP-UDF vs INC vs BJP with the BJP most likely running a distant third.   The current Meghalaya government is a NPP-UDF-PDF-HSPDP-BJP-NCP alliance.   Pretty much all parties of the alliance other than BJP are backing NPP-UDF. There is an argument for NPP and UDF being counted as NDA or pro-NDA.  Not sure if there is an argument for NPP to be NDA but UDF being pro-NDA.
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jaichind
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« Reply #293 on: May 01, 2019, 04:08:38 PM »

Correct! The indpendent is Naba Kumar Sarania  from Kokrajhar  in Assam. I do not Think that BPF can beat him.

I have BPF winning but that one is hard to tell what the local dynamics are.  I agree that with UPP splitting the Bodo vote Naba Kumar Sarania could end up winning again.  Really comes down to will all non-Bodos consolidate behind Naba Kumar Sarania again.  I do not know but my take on it is there were a lot of Bodo vs non-Bodo polarization and violence before the 2014 election which is not present this time around and the non-Bodo vote will most likely be scattered. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #294 on: May 01, 2019, 04:13:14 PM »


Similar to today where pre-election polls had NDA short of majority but clearly the largest bloc.  In 2019 half the pre-election polls have a NDA majority and half does not.  The main difference are the in 2014 the pre-election polls had a momentum toward the NDA as the campaign progressed where in 2019 it is stagnant and if anything the momentum is slightly away from the NDA.  In 2014 the momentum was clearly on the NDA side and the real result was way better for the NDA than any pre-election or even exit poll.  I think exit polls will be important to help gauge momentum.

In 2004 the NDA was way ahead in the polls but as the campaign went on the NDA lead dropped.  Back in 2004 after each round of voting exit polls were allowed for the seats that voted and you can see that after each round of voting the exit polls show the NDA lead getting smaller and smaller.  The the 2004 results show a far worse result than any of the polls. 
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« Reply #295 on: May 01, 2019, 08:56:13 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2019, 08:14:21 AM by jaichind »

Law enforcement has sized over $470 million worth of cash and other items related to vote buying.


TN Gujarat and Delhi are place with a lot of cash being distributed
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jaichind
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« Reply #296 on: May 02, 2019, 08:16:42 AM »

https://www.huffingtonpost.in/entry/elections-2019-maharashtra-may-be-a-bigger-worry-for-bjp-than-up-here-s-why_in_5cc820ece4b07c9a4ce8da88

Quote
This time, while chief minister Devendra Fadnavis had claimed the combine would win 46 seats, a Shiv Sena leader said on condition of anonymity that they were aiming for a more realistic 35 seats.

Of course turnout in the Mumbai areas surged the most in Gujarati areas so unless there were large scale defections of the Marthi vote based on Raj Thackeray faction BJP-SHS should still sweep Mumbai again.  What the BJP-SHS should be more worried about are in the rural areas.
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jaichind
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« Reply #297 on: May 02, 2019, 10:38:27 AM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/congress-confident-of-crossing-three-digit-mark-in-lok-sabha-elections/story-xJNzLNDSURWftWscxMdJuO.html

INC internal assessment which one should always take with a grain of slat

Quote
The Congress’s evaluation for 2019 indicates gains in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Punjab. But it is not expecting a good showing in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Delhi and the North-East.

The places INC claim to be doing well I think are mostly CW view that INC did so badly in 2014 that they are bound to regain ground.  What is interesting is that INC does not expect to do well in Jharkhand which is a surprise since the CW is that INC will gain ground with the INC-JMM-JVM-RJD alliance and that the tribal vote are going against BJP this time. Seems like this is not true and INC will under-perform. 
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« Reply #298 on: May 02, 2019, 10:50:46 AM »

If not for LS, NCP may have tie-up with MNS for state polls

https://www.asianage.com/india/politics/020519/if-not-for-ls-ncp-may-have-tie-up-with-mns-for-state-polls.html

It seems for the Maharashtra assembly elections later in 2019 NCP might allocate a bunch of seats to Raj Thackeray’s MNS  from its quota creating a de facto INC-NCP-NMS alliance and a formidable challenge to BJP-SHS later this year.
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« Reply #299 on: May 02, 2019, 11:18:27 AM »

Sorry for the dumb question, jaichind, but is there any broad long-term movement/effort towards party consolidation in India? I've always found it interesting that major late-stage developing economics – namely India and Brazil – have such fractured partisan systems. It makes these elections very difficult to follow casually.
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