2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

A first since 1995.  Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav, both former UP CM and bitter enemies for decades, now finally share the same stage.  SP-BSP formed an alliance in 1993 to stop BJP and ruled UP in 1995 when they had a massive falling out.  Now they are together again to stop BJP.

[jaichind]

In a dramatic turn a couple days ago the BJP have nominated Pragya Singh Thakur for Bhopal in MP against former INC CM Digvijaya Singh.  Pragya Singh Thakur was a student leader and a what can best described as a Hindu nun who is the main accused in a 2008 terrorist attack in a bombing of a mosque.  Her trail in in progress and she is out on bail. Since she is not convicted, yet, she is eligible to contest.


It seems the BJP is hoping this will provoke a large emotional response from Muslims to help BJP to counter-polarize Hindu votes.  This seems to indicate voting in the first couple of rounds is not going as well as the BJP have hoped and stronger medicine is needed to consolidate the Hindu vote.

[jaichind]

Latest covter survey shows that the salience of economic issues continues to rise while national security continues to decline after the peak reached during the terror attack plus the response.


Similar trend for approval of Modi/BJP


Breakdown by state shows a familiar pattern where national security has greater salience in states the BJP is expected to do well

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis of Karnataka

Points out that in the 14 seats that have voted in Karnataka turnout have fallen


Impact of INC-JD(S) alliance is fairly minor since JD(S) is weak in Northern Karnataka and have overlapping strength with INC in Southern Karnataka



Which happens to match poll of polls


Community breakdown in Karnataka


Gives info on how communities vote



Impact of swings fairly large in Karnataka


BJP stronger with men


BJP stronger with youth


BJP stronger in urban areas

[jaichind]

The alliances in J&K are fairly complicated.  Due to the trauma of the end of the BJP-PDP alliance ancient rivals JKN and PDP are now ready to cooperate in limited ways now. 

In Kashmir it is BJP vs INC where JKN and PDP are backing INC.
In Jammu it is PDP vs JKN where INC are tactically backing JKN.  BJP is in the fray but as a bit player.
In Ladakh it is INC vs BJP vs ISK where JKN and PDP are both backing ISK in order to consolidate the Muslim vote while INC and BJP fight over the Buddhist vote.
 

[jaichind]

Phase III done.  Turnout numbers by state are

Chhattisgarh: 68.62%
Karnataka: 65.29%
Gujarat: 61.71%
Goa: 71.34%
Kerala: 76.35%
West Bengal: 79.36%
Jammu and Kashmir: 12.86%
Assam: 79.16%
Bihar: 59.97%
Maharashtra: 57.53%
Tripura: 78.67%
Odisha: 58.18%
Uttar Pradesh: 58.91%
Dadra and Nagar Haveli: 71.43%
Daman and Diu: 65.34%

Turnout roughly the same as 2014.  Gujarat turnout down a couple of percentages points.  Most likely negative news, even if slightly, for BJP.  Odisha turnout down significantly.  Not clear if this is due to BJD base not turning out of a decline of the Modi wave. 

[jaichind]

Updated projection from me now that we are half way done with voting.  Mostly the same as before with some minor adjustments.

My basic approach is to view the election as a confederation of state elections.  The main driver being state level anti-incumbency.   If a state just held an assembly election then I tend to think polls underestimate the incumbent party,  if the state held assembly elections 1-2 years ago then I think polls tend to be par.  If the state had assembly elections 4-5 years ago then I tend to think polll overestimate the incumbent party. 

Based on that principle I created separate models every state to generate swings and also take into account key changes in candidates and alliance dynamics.   I did not take into account rebels yet so the vote share calculations are mostly overestimating the dominate parties.

J&K: I decided to break up my projection by each region (Kashmir, Ladakh, Jammu)

Kashmir:
Very low turnout so who knows what will take place.  But generally slight edge for JKN

2019
NDA:       0 BJP          3.7%
UPA:        0 INC         2.2% (tactically alliance with JKN)
Others     2 JKN        41.2% (tactical alliance with INC)
               1 PDP       34.3%
               0 JPC       12.5% (Separatist)

2014
NDA:      0 (0 BJP)                   1.4%
UPA:       0 (0 JKN)                34.9%
Others:   3 PDP                     46.9%
              0 JPC                       6.3%


Ladakh:
4 way battle with INC winning as it gains Buddhist vote from BJP

NDA:       0 BJP          23.6%
UPA:        1 INC         33.2% 
Others     0 ISK          28.1% (backed by JKN and PDP) 
               1 INC rebel  13.1%

2014
NDA:      1 (1 BJP)                 26.6%
UPA:       0 (0 INC)                22.6%
Others:   0 ISK                      24,2%
              0 INC rebel              26.6%


Jammu:
Hindu consolidation should see BJP through

2019
NDA:       2 BJP        46.3%
UPA:        0 INC       41.3% (backed by JKN and PDP)
Others     0 BJP rebel  5.0%
 
2014
NDA:      2 (2 BJP)                 48.6%
UPA:       0 (0 INC)                34.6%
              0 PDP                      8.7%



HP:
Mostly replicates 2017 assembly elections, high number of Upper Caste voters gives BJP a sweep.

2019
NDA: 4 BJP     53.7%
UPA: 0 INC     43.4%

2014
NDA: 4 BJP      53.9%
UPA: 0 INC      41.1%


Haryana:
INLD split with splinter JPP helps both BJP and INC.  BJP splinter LSP does not make that much of an impact other than in the seat of the LSP leader.

2019
NDA:      7 BJP              39.7%
UPA:      3 INC              28.4%
Others:  0  BSP-LSP        7.3%
             0 INLD              6.3%
             0 JJP-AAP        15.4%

2014:
NDA:     7 (7 BJP 0 HJC)        40.9%
UPA:     1 INC                       23.0%
Others: 2 INLD                     24.4%
            0 BSP                        4.6%
            0 AAP                        4.3%


Punjab:
AAP has lost a lot of ground since 2017 assembly elections.  They could have gone to SAD to hurt INC.  But most of that support seems to gone to AAP splinter PEP which split the anti-INC vote to help INC.

2019
NDA:     4 (4 SAD, 0 BJP)     34.1%
UPA:     9 INC                     38.5%
Others: 0 BSP-PEP-LIF         12.0%
            0 AAP                     11.8%

2014:
NDA:     6 (4 SAD, 2 BJP)  35.2%
UPA:     3 INC                  33.2%
Others: 4 AAP                  24.5%
            0 BSP                   1.9%


Delhi
AAP landslide victory of 2015 assembly elections is now a distant memory with AAP administration losing a lot of credibility.    AAP loses support  back to INC which means BJP sweeps the polls again

2019
NDA:    7 BJP     42.4%
UPA:     0 INC    25.2%
Others: 0 AAP    27.6%

2014:
NDA:    7 BJP   46.6%
UPA:     0 INC  15.2%
Others: 0 AAP  33.1%


Uttarakhand
Results will mostly mimic 2017 assembly election with BJP losing some ground due to anti-incumbency which is partly mitigated by Modi's popularity in the Hindu heartland 

2019
NDA:     4 BJP           47.7%
UPA:     1 INC           43.5%
Others  0 BSP             5.5%

2014:
NDA:    5 BJP    55.9%
UPA:     0 INC    34.4%
Others: 0 BSP     4.8%


UP:
SP-BSP-RLD Grand Alliance consolidates backward vote to beat back BJP.  INC resurgence in some seats and SP splinter PSP cuts into Grand Alliance votes and prevents even greater BJP losses.

2019
NDA:    33 (31 BJP 1 AD(S))                            40.4%
UPA:      2 INC-JAP-AD (2 INC)                        11.1%
Others: 45 SP-BSP-RLD(23 SP 20 BSP 2 RLD )  42.2%
             0 PSP-PECP                                        2.4%

2014
NDA:    73 (71 BJP 2 AD)   43.6%
UPA:       2 INC                   8.5%
Others:   5 SP                   22.3%
              0 BSP                 19.8%


Bihar:
Nitish Kumar's popularity pulls NDA ahead despite anti-incumbency.  CPI(ML) has tactical alliance with UPA.
 
2019
NDA:   28 (15 BJP 8 JD(U) 5 LJP)                      48.3%
UPA:    12 (5 RJD 5 INC 1 RLSP 1 HAM 0 VIP)    39.6%
Others   0 CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI                               3.2%

2014
NDA:   31 (22 BJP 6 LJP 3 RLSP)         39.5%
UPA:     7 (4 RJD 2 INC 1 NCP)           30.3%
Others: 2 JD(U)-CPI (2 JD(U) 0 CPI)   17.2%


MP
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory
 
2019
NDA:  19 BJP              48.2%
UPA:   10 INC             43.8%
Others 0 SP-BSP-GGP   4.7%

2014
NDA:  27 BJP     54.8%
UPA:    2 INC     35.4%


Rajasthan
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory

2019
NDA: 18 BJP (17 BJP 1 RLP)     50.3%
UPA:   7 INC                           44.9%

2014
NDA: 25 BJP    55.6%
UPA:   0 INC    30.7%


Chhattisgarh
Tribal votes seems to be shifting away from BJP which adds to the INC edge after the 2018 assembly election victory which will contain the Modi wave in Upper Caste areas.

2019
NDA:    3 BJP          41.7%
UPA:     8 INC         47.5%
Others: 0 BSP-JCC    5.3%

2014
NDA:  10 BJP    49.7%
UPA:    1 INC    39.1%


Jharkhand
INC-JMM-JVM  alliance will create a base too large for BJP to beat even with AJSU alliance, especially given anti-incumbency building up.  In the end RJD had a tactical alliance with UPA

2019
NDA:    3 (5 BJP 0 AJSU)                      40.4%
UPA:   11 (4 JMM 4 INC 2 JVM )            45.0%
Others: 1 RJD                                       3.3%

2014
NDA:  12 BJP                            40.7%                 
UPA:    2 (2 JMM 0 INC 0 RJD)    24.6%
Others:0 JVM                            12.3%
           0 AJSU                            3.8%


Gujarat
INC make s a slight comeback but the Modi wave is still powerful in his home state.

2019
NDA:  21 BJP        52.9%
UPA:    5 INC        41.8%

2014
NDA:  26 BJP                       60.1%
UPA:    0 (0 INC 0 NCP)        34.4%


Maharashtra
BJP got SHS to come aboard to an alliance which might not work on the ground.  INC and NCP deeply divided but does have de facto NMS support.  Dalit-Muslim BVA will split the INC-NCP vote and help give NDA a partial victory despite anti-incumbency.

2019
NDA:       33 (19 BJP 14 SHS)                             47.5%
UPA:        15 (5 INC 8 NCP 1 SWP 1 BVA 0 YSP)   42.0%
Others:     0 VBA                                                 3.9%

2014
NDA:    42 (23 BJP 18 SHS 1 SWP)         51.6%
UPA:      6 (2 INC 4 NCP)                       35.0%
Others:  0 NMS                                       1.5%


Goa
BJP government in turmoil should give INC a chance

2019
NDA:  1 BJP     49.9%
UPA:   1 INC    43.8%

2014
NDA: 2 BJP    54.1%
UPA:  0 INC   37.0%


WB:
Left Front implosion and lack of INC-Left Front tactical alliance will doom Left Front.  BJP surges as it captures the anti-incumbency vote.

2019
NDA:      12 BJP             34.3%
UPA:         3 INC              7.8%
Others:   27 AITC           39.7%
               0  Left Front    15.4%

2014
NDA:      2 BJP           17.0%
UPA        4 INC            9.7%
Others: 34 AITC         39.8%
             2 Left Front   30.1%


Orissa:
INC imploding and anti-incumbency votes going to BJP leads to a shock BJP narrow victory here. 

2019
NDA:    13 BJP                         40.1%
UPA:      0 INC-JMM-CPI-CPM    20.2%
Others:  8 BJD                         36.7%

2014
NDA:     1 BJP     21.9%
UPA       0 INC    26.4%
Others: 20 BJD   44.8%


Karnataka
INC-JD(S) alliance will not work well on the ground letting BJP fight INC-JD(S) to a tie.

2019
NDA:        14 (14 BJP 0 BJP Ind)  47.1%
UPA:        14 (11 INC 4 JD(S))     46.2%
Otherss:     0 UPP                        3.0%

2014
NDA:   17 BJP      43.4%
UPA:     9 INC      41.2%
Others: 2 JD(S)   11.2%


AP
5 way battle and JSP splitting the anti-incumbency vote  allows TDP to avoid a total wipe-out. YSRCP most likely will back BJP post-election.  YSRCP alliance with TRS also drives some anti-Telagana votes to TDP.

2019
NDA:       0 BJP                       5.0%
UPA:        0 INC                      4.2%
Others:  20 YSRCP                 41.1%
              5 TDP                     35.2%
              0 JSP-BSP               10.2% (tactical alliance with Left)
              0 CPI-CPM-CPM(ML)   2.2% (tactical alliance with JSP-BSP)

2014
NDA:    17 (15 TDP 2 BJP)    48.0%
UPA:       0 INC                     2.9%
Others:   8 YSRCP                45.7%


Telangana
TRS to repeat the 2018 assembly election landslide.  CPI TDP are backing to INC to no avail as AIMIM has a tactical alliance with TRS.  YSRCP pretty much pulled out of the state to back TRS.

2019
NDA:      0 BJP                   13.7%
UPA:       0 INC                  31.3%
Others: 16 TRS                  45.5%
              1 AIMIM                2.7%
              0 JSP-BSP             2.9% (tactical alliance with CPI-CPM)
              0 CPI-CPM            1.0% (tactical alliance with JSP-BSP)

2014
NDA:      2 (1 BJP 1 TDP)     22.8%
UPA:      2 INC                    25.7%
Others: 11 TRS                   34.9%
             1 YSRCP                 4.5%
             1 AIMIM                 3.5%


TN
AIADMK split into splinter AMMK and anti-incumbency will defeat NDA despite the size of the alliance.  The NDA defeat could end up being worse than this.   NMN eats into the UPA vote or else it will be a massive UPA landslide.

Note Vellore election was called off but my projection will still be based on all 39 seats.

2019
NDA:      7 (3 AIADMK 2 BJP 1 PMK 1 DMDK 0 PT 0 TMC 1 PNK)         35.7%
UPA      32 (18 DMK 8 INC 2 VCK 2 CPI 2 CPM 0 MUL 1 IJK 0 KMDK )  43.9%
Others:  0 AMMK-SDPI                                                                    11.7%
             0 NMN                                                                                5.6%
             
2014
NDA:       2 (1 PMK 1 BJP 0 DMDK 0 MDMK)     18.7%
UPA:       0 INC                                                4.4%
Others:  39 AIADMK                                       44.9%
              0 DMK                                             27.2%


Kerala
Sabarimala temple issue will crush Left Front and lead to a large scale defection of Left Front vote to BJP who will finally win a seat in Kerala.  This and anti-incumbency will lead to a UPA landslide.  Rahul Gandhi running in Kerala is part of the UPA moving in for the kill.
 
2019
NDA:       1 (1 BJP 0 BDJS 0 KEC(T))              21.3%
UPA:      17 (13 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)  42.1%
Others:   2  Left Front                                   33.6%

2014
NDA:     0 BJP                                              10.9%
UPA:    12 (8 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)      42.5%
Others:  8 Left Front                                    41.6%


Assam
NDA was about to sweep the state until the new citizenship bill.  Now it is a real fight with anti-incumbency building up.  AIUDF only running in 3 seats helps INC partly but also drives Hindu votes away from INC to NDA.

2019
NDA:       7 (6 BJP 1 BPF 0 AGP)     43.7%
UPA:        4 INC                            38.5%
Others:    3 AIUDF                         11.4%

2014
NDA:      7 BJP                    38.7%
UPA:       3 (3 INC 0 BPF)     31.5%
Others:   3 AIUDF                15.0%
              1 ex-ULFA               4.2%
              0 AGP                     3.9%


6 Federal districts
I expect here to be a small swing away from NDA to UPA with INC gaining a seat

2019
NDA:     4 (4 BJP 0 AINRC)
UPA:     2 (1 INC 1 NCP)

2014
NDA:      5 (4 BJP 1 AINRC)
UPA:     1 (0 INC 1 NCP)


11 Northeast seats
Before the new citizenship bill NDA was going to sweep.  Now several pro-BJP parties are running separately and away from BJP.  Still NDA plus pro-NDA parties will have the edge. 

2019
NDA:     6 (5 BJP 1 NDPP 1)
UPA:      1 INC
Others:  0 Left Front
             4 pro-NDA (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 UDP 1 MNF)

2014
NDA:      4 (1 BJP 1 NPF 1 NPP 1 SDF)
UPA:      5 INC
Others:  2 Left Front


The total result of all this are

NDA: 251 (210 BJP)  39.1% (31.4% BJP)
UPA   155 (101 INC)  30.8% (22.7% INC)

Back in 2014 it was

NDA:  336 (282 BJP)  38.5% (31.1% BJP)
UPA:     59 ( 44 INC)  23.1% (19.3% INC)

So the BJP vote share are mostly similar to 2014 but INC saw a moderate increase.

In 2019
BJP will come in first place in 210 seats and second place 160 seats making its "reach" 370
INC will come in first place in 101 seats and second place 162 seats making its "reach" 263

In 2014
BJP come in first place in 282 seats and second place 54  seats making its "reach" 336
INC will come in first place in 44 seats and second place 224 seats making its "reach" 268

So INC's "reach" stayed around the same (it became more relevant in TN but lost relevance in WB, Odisha and the Northesst) and BJP's "reach" increased  by 40 some seats (mostly in WB, Odisha and the Northeast)

Rest of the seats are
Pro-NDA            4 (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 UDP 1 MNF)
Pro-UPA             7 (5 TDP 2 JKN)
Federal Front     44 (20 YSRCP 16 TRS 8 BJD)
Grand Alliance   72 (27 AITC 23 SP 20 BSP 2 RLD)
Left                   5 (2 Left Front 2 CPI 1 CPM) [2 CPI 1 CPM from alliance with UPA in TN)
Anti-NDA           5 (3 AIUDF 1 AIMIM 1 PDP)


NDA should be able to form a government with pro-NDA parties and some Federal Front party support.  YSRCP will for sure back NDA as most likely will TRS.  BJD might stay away to deal with its new rival the BJP in Odisha.

[jaichind]

The main story of this election is about the regression to the mean for the BJP in its core states and its battle to try to make up for it in non-core states.

I define BJP core states are the North where Hindi is dominate plus some pro-BJP Western states.  Collectively they are: Jammu of J&K, HP, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Uttarakhand, UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Chandigarh, D&N H, and D&D.  These states and and federal territories make up 319 out of 543 seats.  The rest of India or non-core states make up 224. seats.

In 2014 BJP won 248 out of 319 seats core seats.  NDA overall won 282 out of 319 seats (or 88%) to UPA's 24 seats.   In non-core states the BJP won 34 out of 224 seats with NDA winning 54 out of 224 seats (or 24%) to 35 for UPA.

So the problem for the BJP is that a 88% win ratio is going to be hard to replicate and regression to the mean would mean large losses even if NDA/BJP continues to do well in these seats.  This is why the BJP has to enter into non-core states to try to expand NDA/BJP.  This would be places like WB, Odisha, TN and the Northeast.  And the BJP has to contend with losing TDP in AP as a ally and source of possible seats.

If you take my current projection.  I project that the BJP will go to 156 out of 319 core seats with NDA winning 190 out of 319 seats (or 60%) to UPA's 84 seats.  60% strike rate is still very good but this does mean a massive loss of 92 seats for NDA. 

For non-core states I project BJP will win 54 seats with NDA winning 61 out of 224 seats (or 27%) to 71 for NDA.   A gain of 7 seats for NDA is actually quite impressive given the loss of 17 seats it won in 2014 which are all lose for 2019 given the departure of TDP for NDA.  So the NDA actually achieved a growth of 24 seats in non-cores seats.  If you add in the 4 pro-NDA parties seats in the Northeast  it pushes the NDA strike rate in non-core seats to 29% AFTER the loss of TDP in AP. 

But all of this is nowhere enough to make up for the loss of 92 seats for the NDA in core seats.

This is the explanation of why the NDA vote share in 2014 and 2019 are similar but with very different seat outcomes.  In core seats the sensitively to seat losses with vote share loss are high since they are often bipolar seats where a swing against BJP will bring large losses.  In non-core states the NDA vote share was so low in 2014 that a large vote share swing for NDA which makes up for the vote share losses in core states does not even come close to making up for seat losses.   

In other words in 2014 the NDA had an unusually good vote distribution as far as vote share to seat share conversion was concerned.  2019 is a shift to a more normal distribution of vote for the NDA and it will cost it in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/a-socialist-tuesday/

Seems to have done some ground reporting/analysis of the 10 UP seats that voted in Phase III.  The result seem pretty negative for BJP.   These 10 seats are mostly in Yadav heavy areas and in 2014 it went 7 BJP 3 SP.  They have BJP losing 6 seats for sure and the other 4 (Aonla, Bareilly, Etah and Pilibhit) being tossups where they expect BJP to win 2 out of 4.  My model agree with their analysis in the sense that we agree on the 3 seats BJP won in 2014 that it will lose to SP (Moradabad, Rampur, Sambhal.  On the 4 tossups seats they have I have all of them going to BJP by anywhere between 3% to 10%.   Pilibhit is Varun Gandhi's seat (grandson of Indira Gandhi and son of deceased Sanjay Gandhi) and if that is a tossup then that is truly problematic for BJP.   My model has NDA at 33 seats and 40.3% vote share in UP.  If this projection is true then NDA might be looking at low 20s in terms of seats and something like 36%-37% vote share.

[jaichind]

Thinking about my concept of core-BJP states of (Jammu of J&K, HP, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Uttarakhand, UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Chandigarh, D&N H, and D&D.) which make up 319 out of 543 seats versus non-core seats which make up 224 out of 543 seats.  It seems it would be good to look at the history of BJP, BJP allies and NDA seats since 1991 grouped by core and non-core seats.


                      BJP                          BJP Allies                          NDA
          Core   Non-Core  Total    Core  Non-Core   Total     Core  Non-Core   Total
1991   113          7        120       4          0            4          117      7           124
1996   154          7        161      25         0           25         179      7           186
1998   153        29        182     29        46           75         182     75           257
1999   150        32        182      44       75         119         194    107          301
2004   109        29        138      27       24           51         136     53          189
2009     91        25        116      41        3           44          132     28          160
2014   248        34        282      34       21           55         282     55          337
2019   156        54        210      34       11           45         190     65          255

2019 are my current projections

The story is pretty clear.  
1) In 1991 BJP had no allies nut was strong in its core seats but nowhere in non-core seats.  
2) In 1996 there was a BJP surge in just its core seats with the help of allies but still nowhere in non-core seats.
3) In 1998 BJP got a bunch of allies in non-core seats while repeating its 1996 results in core seats to be able to form government.  
4) In 1999 being in government allowed the BJP to rope in more allies in core states but especially in non-core states to get to a majority for NDA by itself.  
5) 2004 saw BJP and allies lose ground across the board in both core and non-core seats as the NDA is ousted from power.  
6) In 2009 with the help with allies in core states the NDA repeated its performance in 2004 for core seats but the loss of allies in non-core seats saw BJP still hold its 2004 ground there but NDA loses ground due to loss of allies.
7) In 2014 there as a massive Modi wave in core seats which allowed the BJP to win over some allies in non-core seats and improve NDA tallies there as well. A  BJP majority on its own was pretty much built by the unprecedented saturation of BJP in core seats.
8  ) In 2019 my projections have BJP falling to 1996-1999 levels in core seats which represents the historical norm for a good BJP election but not a fantastic one (like in 2014) and BJP gaining a lot of ground on its own in non-core seats with fairly little help from allies.

If my 2019 projection is correct then the main trend of 2019 is the expansion of BJP into some non-core states (WB and Odisha) without help of allies while growth for BJP in the South still stunted while in core seats it is above reversion to the mean to a good but not excellent result for BJP.  What Modi and BJP has to hope for is that in core states the 2014 set a new benchmark for the BJP and that another excellent result for BJP is achievable.  

[jaichind]

It seems INC have nominated a ex-MLA and its 2014 candidate for Varanasi which means that Priyanka Gandh will not contest.  I guess INC high command made a call that tying down Modi  in Varanasi it not worth making this election more "Presidential" by having a high profile face-off.  The key to INC has to be to have less of Modi in the media.  Not having a high profile contest I guess was their call to achieve that.    I still feel that having Rahul Gandhi run against Modi sets him up the best to become PM in 2024.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What News channel do you watch, because the vast majority of channels are broadcasted in Hindi not English.

I cant stand any of them but which one do you watch

[jaichind]

What News channel do you watch, because the vast majority of channels are broadcasted in Hindi not English.

I cant stand any of them but which one do you watch

NDTV (mostly neutral)
https://www.youtube.com/user/ndtv

India Today (slightly pro-BJP)
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYPvAwZP8pZhSMW8qs7cVCw

Newsx (pro-BJP)
https://www.youtube.com/user/newsxlive

Quint (anti-BJP)
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSaf-7p3J_N-02p7jHzm5tA

Times Now (somewhat pro-BJP)
https://www.youtube.com/user/timesnowonline

[jaichind]

Some info on bookie odds

In UP - Most betting are for BJP to win 41-45 in UP and 240 seats overall
https://www.indiawest.com/news/india/bookies-bet-on-bjp-s-modi-to-win/article_c5c61c7e-6786-11e9-be31-775989371493.html

In Rajasthan - Most betting for BJP to win 246-250 overall and INC to win 76-79 overall
http://www.dailypioneer.com/2019/india/bookies-bet-on-bjp-in-rajasthan.html

In MP - Betting for total BJP seats seems to be 230-245.  But betting for MP BJP seats seems to be 12-15, Rajasthan INC 15-17 seats, and Chhattisgarh  BJP seats at 2-4.  Of course these sets of data are inconsistent, If BJP wins around 14 seats in MP, 9 seats in Rajasthan , 3 seats in  Chhattisgarh then for BJP to win 230-245 seats overall it will pretty much have to outperform everywhere else (like 55 seats in UP, near sweep in the rest of Hindi belt, 12+ seats in both WB and Odisha, outperform in Assam and the Northeast and do reasonably well in TN.)  Of course if that were the case then why would the BJP then under-perform in MP and Rajasthan ?  This just does not add up.
http://www.dailypioneer.com/2019/india/indore-bets-on-namo-return-but-there---s-mood-swing.html

[jaichind]

More betting data, this time in Gujarat - 245 for BJP (an increase from 232 last week before phase 3 voted), 77 for INC, 22 for BJP in Gujarat, 43 for BJP in UP, 18 for BJP in Rajasthan and 20 for BJP in MP.
These sort of state level results would more imply that BJP ends up with around 230 seats and not 245 but perhaps the punters feel that BJP will outperform in places like TN, Odisha, and WB.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2019/apr/26/congress-or-bjp-bookies-bet-on-saffron-partys-return-1969241.html

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/sadhvi-pragya-cow-urine-cancer-1507816-2019-04-22?fbclid=IwAR1CLgSiAMeh0cYQkP45kxMfFODBeLD_Q4eSLPfxJtG8LC9EF_gqVPnyBd0

Controversial BJP candidate for Bhopal and accused terrorist Sadhvi Pragya claimed that drinking cow urine cured her breast cancer.  She also says that just touching a cow lowers the blood pressure.  She also talked about the need to take better care of cows in India.

To be fair she would be the second candidate in Bhopal  to have made such a claim.  Her heavyweight INC opponent and former INC CM of MP Digvijay Singh back in 2003 when he was in a tough fight for re-election also claimed that cow urine could be used as a potential treatment for diseases as serious as cancer and AIDS.  He also talked about how he also consumes cow urine for health purposes. It was an election ploy to try to pull in the Hindu vote in an election where the INC was in clear trouble.  It did not work as INC was ousted from power in MP and only regained it last year in the 2018 MP assembly election.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2003/05/05/a-leap-of-faith-in-indian-politics/2e3c68af-ae80-4d62-b7e4-46b35b8ed9a3/?utm_term=.990f8f109b09


On the cow issues I think those, most in the BJP, that are pushing to make it illegal to kill a cow overall makes the average quality of life for a cow worse.  Before such a ban on cow slaughter was put in place in several states a cattle farmer could sell it to the slaughter house after it could no longer economically produce milk.  Now that option is off the table the economic value of a cow is a lot lower and cow farmers have much lower incentives to take care of and feed the cow leading to a surge in wondering and starving cows in the countryside.   

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/rajasthan-betting-town-puts-its-money-on-bjp-119042401033_1.html

More details on Rajasthan bookie projections.  They seem to have:

BJP total seats: 246-250 (I have it at 210)
Rajasthan BJP seats: 18 (I have it at 18 although it is BJP 17 RLP 1)
Maharashtra NDA seats: 31-34 (I have it at 33)
WB BJP seats: 8-11 (I have it at 12)
Haryana BJP seats: 7-9 (I have it at 7)
Punjab INC seats: 7-9 (I have it at 9)
UP BJP seats: 42-44 (I have it at BJP 31 AD(S) 2)
MP BJP seats: 20-22 (I have it at 19)
Gujarat BJP seats: 22-24 (I have it 21)
Bihar BJP seats: 12-14 (I have it at 15 with NDA at 28)
Delhi BJP seats: 5-7 (I have it at 7)

It seems other than UP my projections are very similar to bookie projections yet the final seat count for BJP for me is 210 and for the bookies is 246-250. Something does not make sense here.  If you go state by state and plug in their numbers for BJP seats in the states they indicated and put in some best cases for BJP for the others state

J&K                       2
HP                        4
Haryana                8 (bookie has it 7-9)
Punjab                  2 (bookie has INC at 7-9, so BJP is at best 2)
Delhi                     6 (bookie has it 5-7)
Uttarakhand          5
UP                       43 (Bookie has it 42-44)
Bihar                   13 (Bookie has it 12-14)
MP                       21 (Bookie has it 20-22)
Rajasthan             18 (Bookie has it at 18)
Chhattisgarh          6
Jharkhand              7
Gujarat                23 (Bookie has it 22-24)
Maharashtra         19 (Bookie has 31-33 for NDA)
Goa                       2
WB                      10 (Bookie has it at 8-11)
Orissa                  13
Karnataka            17
AP                         0
Telangana              1   
TN                        4
Kerala                   1
A&N                      1
Chandigarh            1
D&N H                   1
D&D                      1
Pondicherry            0     
Lakshadweep         0
Assam                   7
Arunachal P            2
Manipur                 1
Mizoram                0
Nagaland               0
Tripura                   2
Meghalaya              0
Sikkim                   0
---------------------------------
Total                  241

Which is still 7 less than the 246-250 the bookies project for BJP overall.   And if we can assume the best case scenario for the other states it still leaves us with why for the states the bookies had a projection the numbers are mostly pro-BJP but for sure not the best case scenario for BJP.  For the state level projections the bookies have seem to imply something like 225-230 seats for the BJP overall and not 246-250

[jaichind]

VDPAssociates, which is one of the smaller Indian polling agency that historically have a BJP lean keeps on coming out with cryptic remarks that Priyanka Gandhi will have a great career as a politician and that the INC will do very well in the 2022 UP assembly election if she led the INC campaign.  Since they cannot release any polling results I guess they are hinting at a surge toward INC in Eastern UP due to Priyanka Gandhi.  If true then it is not clear who this hurts.  If this surge are from Muslim voters then SP-BSP is toast in Eastern UP and BJP will sweep.  If this surge are from Upper Caste voters then the BJP will get hit badly.  If could be both in which case the election in Eastern UP in the couple dozen districts in Eastern UP where INC have some strength will become real 3 way battles.

[jaichind]

Thinking more about my concept of core BJP states vs non-core BJP states, another way to break up the Indian states are to think about the BJP as the Hindu-Hindi party.  The idea is that BJP represents Hindus which is obvious but is also about BJP as the Hindi party as Hindi can be a tool for the BJP for national building.  This has been pointed out before for the 2014 election

Hindi belt


2014 election result of the Hindi belt


We can group all the Hindi states into one cluster: HP, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand

Then using this idea of Hindi we can also think about languages are are from the same language family as Hindi or non-Hindi but Indo-Aryan languages

 

We can then create a cluster of Hindu (so we can exclude Kashmir and Ladakh) non-Hindi but Indo-Aryan language states: Jammu of J&K, Punjab, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, WB, Orissa, Karnataka, A&N, Chandigarh, D&N H, D&D, Assam, Tripura, Sikkim

OK.  I am cheating a bit.  Karnataka's language is Kannada which in theory is a Dravidian language but has gone though a pretty long historical process of Sanskritisation that I really count it as a Indo-Aryan language in cultural circle terms.

Overall this zone is not historical BJP territory but the BJP have been growing her over the decades with its Hindu-Hindi narrative

Then we have the rest which are non-Hindu areas or Dravidian or Sino-Tibetan language areas. They are: Kashmir of J&K, Ladakh of J&K, AP, Telangana, TN, Kerala, Pondicherry, Lakshadweep, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Meghalaya

Overall the Hindi area has 225 out of 534 seats, the non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas has 203 seats and the rest has 113. 

We can look at BJP, BJP allies and overall NDA performance over the years using these categories.  I will show them in terms of % of seats won instead of absolute seat numbers

2019 are my current projections

NDA total
                    1991    1996    1998     1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi            38.7%  56.9%  60.4%  61.8%  37.8%  39.6%  89.3%  56.0%
Indo-Aryan   17.9%  28.6%  42.9%  48.8%  45.3%  34.5%  54.2%  56.2%
Rest              0.9%    0.0%  29.6%  54.8%  10.4%    0.9%  22.6%  13.0%
Total            23.1%  34.3%  47.3%  55.4%  34.8%  29.5%  62.1%  47.0%

BJP only
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi            38.7%  52.4%  54.2%  49.8%  34.7%  28.0%  84.4%  48.9%
Indo-Aryan   15.9%  21.2%  26.1%  29.1%  28.6%  26.1%  42.4%  46.3%
Rest               0.9%   0.0%    6.1%    9.6%    1.7%    0.0%   5.2%   5.2%
Total            22.3%  29.7%  33.5%  33.5%  25.4%  21.4%  51.9%  38.7%

BJP allies
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             0.0%    4.4%    6.2%   12.0%    3.1%   11.6%   4.9%   7.1%
Indo-Aryan    2.0%    7.4%   16.7%  19.7%   16.7%    8.4%  11.8%   9.9%
Rest              0.0%    0.0%   23.5%   45.2%    8.7%    0.9%  17.4%   7.8%
Total             0.7%    4.6%   13.8%   21.9%    9.4%     8.1%  10.1%  8.3%

The narrative is pretty clear.  When the BJP really got going on being a force in Indian politics in 1991 it was strong in Hindi areas, have a good base in Indo-Aryan areas and nowhere in the rest.  The rise of BJP in the 1996-1999 period has to do with its own growth in Hindi areas and the the help of new allies also grew in Indo-Aryan areas while it stayed weak in the Rest and only got seats for the NDA by roping in regional allies. 2004 saw setbacks across the board and by 2009 some of BJP's allies in the Rest and even the Indo-Aryan belt had abandoned the BJP but saw the BJP retain significant strength in the Hindi and Indo-Aryan belt.  The 2014 surge was  most extreme in the Hindi belt while in Indo-Aryan saw significant growth and only grew in the Rest only due to some extra allies.  2019 should see a reversion to the mean in Hindi areas but the BJP continues to grow in Indo-Aryan areas.

So if in the pre 2014 period we can mostly call the BJP a Hindu-Hindi party after 2014 period it might make sense to call it the Hindu-Indo-Aryan party.   The Hindi and Indo-Aryan zones make up 428 out of 543 seats and should form a large base for the BJP to continue to be a powerful if not dominate force in Indian politics in the decades to come.  Its vision using Hindu-Indo-Aryan identify as the core of a nation building goal I think is more murky in terms of success given the large number of Muslims in key Northern states and continued resistance of   Dravidian states.

[jaichind]

https://www.outlookindia.com/blog/story/india-news-naveen-patnaik-exposed-why-odisha-cm-fielded-an-82-year-old-icu-patie/4080

Is a very interesting story of political battle in Odisha between two rivals.  It involves Biju Patnaik who was the leader of JD in Odisha which was the main rival to INC in the 1970s to 1990s.
 

After Biju Patnaik passed away his son Naveen Patnaik split the JD and formed BJD and formed an alliance with BJP


A key Biju Patnaik lieutenant which helped Naveen Patnaik from BJD was Bijoy Mohapatra who as a result had great influence within BJD and worked with Naveen Patnaik win the LS elections in 1998 and 1999 with their alliance with BJP over INC.   Bijoy Mohapatra had been an MLA from Patkura since 1980 and had already won in 1980 1985 1990 and 1995.


By 2000 it was clear that BJD-BJP was poised to win the Odisha assembly election.  Bijoy Mohapatra was the head of the BJD political committee in charge of handing out tickets.  But on the day when the deadline Naveen Patnaik who decided that he did not want to share power with Bijoy Mohapatra expelled him from the party and invalided his BJD ticket.  It was too late for Bijoy Mohapatra to file as an independent Patkura.  Instead he backed a AITC candidate Trilochan Behera who was a tribal leader and shifted his local base over to him.  Trilochan Behera went on to win with Bijoy Mohapatra's support.  But  Naveen Patnaik had another card to play.  After the elections when BJD-BJP came to power with Naveen Patnaik as CM he was able to, using his resource as the CM, to get Trilochan Behera to defect over to BJD and removing a political proxy for Bijoy Mohapatra. 

The main goal for Naveen Patnaik  going forward is to deny Bijoy Mohapatra to get elected as a MLA since given the connections that Bijoy Mohapatra had with various BJD MLAs he could make a lot of trouble for  Naveen Patnaik.  Bijoy Mohapatra went on to form OGP and formed an alliance with INC in 2004 and was narrowly defeated in Patkura by the BJD with Naveen Patnaik  throwing in vast resources to the district to ensure his defeat.

For the 2009 assembly elections Bijoy Mohapatra had merged his OGP with NCP but with BJD-BJP alliance breaking up the NCP choose to form an alliance with BJD.  In anger Bijoy Mohapatra joined BJP and ran again in Patkura but was defeated given the negative sentiment against the BJP in Odisha.

For 2014 Bijoy Mohapatra switched over to Mahakalapada to run as the BJP candidate and was again defeated as while the BJP support rose it was still a BJD landslide year.

For 2019 Bijoy Mohapatra switched back to Patkura run for BJP.   Naveen Patnaik insisted on nominating the 82 year BJD incumbent  Bed Prakash Agrawalla who was gravely ill.  The Agrawalla family begged Naveen Patnaik to not insist on Bed Prakash Agrawalla and suggested that his wife or son run instead.  Naveen Patnaik refused which confused many.  Bed Prakash Agrawalla was so ill that it took lot of effort for him to even file his papers and it would be impossible for him to campaign. 

Naveen Patnaik's strategy became clear Bed Prakash Agrawalla passed away a few days ago.  Due to the death of the a candidate the election for Patkura was halted until the BJD can come up with another candidate and the election will be held months after the assembly election.  It is now clear that given the fact that the BJP is much stronger in 2019 than in 2014 that Naveen Patnaik did not feel confident that he can keep Bijoy Mohapatra from winning.  So with a ploy of a candidate on his deathbed followed by a death during the election he was able to stop Bijoy Mohapatra from getting into the Odisha assembly.  Naveen Patnaik's plan must be, win the 2019 assembly election, most likely narrowly, and then when the Patkura election takes place month later he can use the honeymoon period of his renewed mandate and all to resources of the state government to throw into the election to stop  Bijoy Mohapatra from winning.  What a ploy.  Genius.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Isn’t Gujarat the BJP’s version of Texas though

[jaichind]

Isn’t Gujarat the BJP’s version of Texas though

Not really.  I think we have to factor our the impact of Modi which by itself is hard to do.  Looking at LS elections since 1991 shows that it is a lean BJP state at the LS level but it was only recently it became a landslide BJP state because of Modi.  Also we do have to accept that Gujarati is not Hindi and a Indo-Aryan language and in may ways should be looked at with other non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states.

                  Seats                            Vote share
             BJP+   INC+     BJP+     INC+      BJP rebels   INC rebels
1991       20       6        50.4%   42.1%                            1.0%
1996       16      10       48.5%   38.7%         2.4%           3.1%
1998       19       7        48.3%   36.7%       10.2% (RJP really drew support from both INC and BJP)
1999       20       6        52.5%   45.4%
2004       14     12        47.4%   45.0%
2009       15     11        46.5%   43.4%        1.4%            0.7%
2014       26       0        60.1%   34.4%

Gujarat was quite competitive until 2014.  INC will make comeback but will most likely only get the state to be competitive if Modi moves off the national scene and the favorite  son effect  goes away.

[Continential]

What is the Andra Pradesh exit polls

[jaichind]

What is the Andra Pradesh exit polls

They come out 5/19.  All exit polls now are in quarantine until the last round of voting are over.  Counting will take place 5/23. What is annoying about this schedule is that this means exit polls will come out morning of 5/19 for me in NY.  But that sunday morning I will need to take my son to Chinese school for his final exam.  Hopefully there will be time for me to look over the exit polls as they come out while I am in Chinese school while my son is taking the exam.

[jaichind]

On the issue of AP, it seems like common consensus that YSRCP is poised to sweep both the LS and assembly elections.  The actions of TDP leader and CM Naidu going on on EVM rigging and errors after voting ended in AP seems to make it clear that even he believe he has lost.