2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/congress-nyay-scheme-30-seats-bjp-study-1492372-2019-04-02

BJP internal survey seems to indicate that the Rahul Gandhi minimum income scheme is making an impact.  BJP's internal assessment is that after the air strikes against Pakistan that BJP will get 230-240 seats.  Now after the Rahul Gandhi's minimum income scheme came out the impact on the BJP is around 30 seats which would mean the BJP assessment is that BJP is on target to get 200-210 seats.

[jaichind]

With the limited data we have the momentum seems to be stalling for NDA.  If so there is a fair chance that NDA plus pro-NDA parties in the Northeast might not cross 272 for a majority.  If so where will the BJP find support to form a government.  The choices are the regional parties YSRCP, TRS and BJD.  I would rate the chances of these parties backing a BJP government as

YSRCP: High
TRS: Medium
BJD: Low

The stronger the BJP is in the state of the regional party the less likely said party will back a NDA government.  The BJP is the weakest in AP, has a base although very localized to urban areas in Telangana, and fairly strong and rising in Odisha.

YSRCP has already stated that it would back a NDA government at the federal level if they do not have the numbers if NDA would grant special status for AP.  Part of this is a ploy to get tactical voting by BJP voters in AP but with TDP clearly anti-BJP YSRCP clearly would lean BJP.  In fact AP might end up like TN where TDP and YSRCP would be like DMK and AIADMK  being the dominate local regional rivals and swap partners with national parties like BJP and INC from time to time.

TRS for the same reason will most likely back NDA if necessary given its main rival in  Telangana is INC.  Still it is clear that BJP has ambitions to grow in Telangana which would give TRS second thoughts.

BJD has been allies with BJP in the past and still has a fairly anti-INC stance.  But with this election where BJP could end up a strong rival to BJD if not pull of a surprise to beat BJD in the LS elections the BJD is unlikely to want to back BJP at the federal level.  In fact if BJP does usually well the question BJD would have to ask would eventually be: Should BJD form an alliance with INC.

[jaichind]

Some more ABP polls

Bihar: NDA 34 UPA 6


UP: SP-BSP-RLD 42 BJP-AD 36 INC 2




Poll Eyes which seems to be have a significant anti-BJP lean in its polls had for Chhattisgarh

             Seat           Vote share
INC          8                   44%
BJP          3                   41%
BSP-JCC   0                   10%  

JCC will not be running any candidates but will be backing BSP.

[jaichind]

Only In Kolkata, You'll Find Election Campaign Graffitis In Mandarin

In this case the graffitis is in Chinatown and asks for support for AITC.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

For the sake of all Indians, let's hope Modi loses.

[jaichind]

Latest controversy revolves  around all cable TV watchers now have a new unprompted channel choice called NaMo TV. 

 

Which seems to be a channel that is 24/7 about PM Modi and his activities.  When there were complaints about this new cable channel being allowed without going through the licensing procedure for a new cable TV channel it was pointed out that this channel is really an advertisement paid for by the BJP ergo not really a channel.  Of course this argument then potentially gets the BJP in trouble with campaign spending and fiance laws.  Anyway in the meantime it seems the various cable TV providers are saying to their customers that they cannot remove this channel from the list of channels as it is provided free of charge.

[jaichind]

Even though it was suppose to be dead there are sources now that are saying INC and AAP have agreed to formed an alliance in Delhi and Haryana.  This have not been confirmed though.  The reason there was no AAP-INC deal in Delhi in the recent past has been AAP want the seat allocation to be AAP 5 INC 2 and INC wants it to be INC 4 AAP 3.  I suspect if there is a deal it was the AAP that backed down.  I think that even if an alliance is formed I am not sure how many seats a AAP-INC alliance can win given the anti-incumbency against the AAP state government. 

An INC-AAP alliance in Haryana would be interesting.    Right now in Haryana it is a 6 way battle.  It is
BJP vs INC vs BSP-LSP vs AAP vs INLD vs JJP.

LSP is a Jat based BJP splinter.  JJP is an INLD splinter with INLD a mostly Jat based party.  AAP has been making some headway in growing in Haryana and with INLD-JJP split down the middle the election would mostly be BJP vs INC but the vote share would be very splinter.

AAP's position has always been that it wants an INC-JJP-AAP alliance something some factions of the INC are not opposed to.  JJP is open to an alliance with AAP but  is opposed to an alliance with INC.  INLD seems to want an alliance with BJP and could accept high price for it if JJP have an alliance with AAP.

So we are likely to have either
a) status quo: BJP vs INC vs BSP-LSP vs AAP vs INLD vs JJP.
OR
b) INC-APP alliance: BJP vs INC-AAP vs BSP-LSP vs INLD vs JJP
OR
c) INC-APP alliance which triggers BJP-INLD alliance : BJP-INLD vs INC-AAP vs BSP-LSP vs JJP
or
d) INC-JJP-AAP alliance with triggers BJP-INLD alliance: BJP-INLD vs INC-JJP-AAP vs BSP-LSP

with a) b) and c) all possible and d) not that likely.

[jaichind]

Poll Eyes (seems to have anti-BJP lean) poll on Karnataka

                Seat           Vote share
INC-JD(S)   17                   51%
BJP            11                   45%
 
It has BJP strong 4 Lean BJP 4  Tossup 9 Lean UPA 3 UPA strong 8.  So this poll seem to assume that the tossups will lean INC-JD(S)

[jaichind]

News Nation poll on Gujarat which is unchanged from the same a similar poll back in March in terms of seats

         Seats      Vote share
BJP      21            49%
INC        5           41%


A vote share difference of 8% should imply something like 7-8 seats for INC.  What is the bad news here is if the BJP-INC vote share gap is 8% then that is almost a 9% swing away from BJP relative to 2014 and pretty much matches the 2017 assembly results.  This is very bad new for BJP.  If the BJP performance in the Hindi heartland with the Modi effect is about the same as recent assembly elections then the BJP will lose a bunch of seats across the North even if a loss of 5 seats in Gujarat is lager than what BJP wants (BJP seems to be hoping for 2) but still somewhat manageable. 

[jaichind]

India Today - Political Stock Exchange poll on preferred PM which usually favor the incumbent (with difference from March poll)

Overall: Modi 53(+1) Gandhi 35(+2)

North: Modi 56(+2) Gandhi 30(-1)
East: Modi 55(-2) Gandhi 32(+5)
West: Modi 58(+2) Gandhi 30(+1)
South: Modi 39(+1) Gandhi 51(+6)

By community

Upper Caste: 73(+1) Gandhi 17(+2)
OBC: Modi 68(+1) Gandhi 22(+2)
Dalit: Modi 42(+1) Gandhi 46(+2)
Tribal: Modi 45(+1) Gandhi 42(+2)
Muslim: Modi 19(+1) Gandhi 64(+3)

So not much movement from March other than a tiny shift toward Rahul Gandhi.  Still being behind 53-35 is not that bad given Modi is the main BJP trump card and the incumbent.   

[jaichind]

Since there are ongoing talks between INC and AAP for alliance in Delhi and Haryana there are plenty of media coverage.  The main media narrative seems to be that a INC-AAP alliance makes sense in Delhi but not Haryana given the small base of AAP.

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/ties-with-aap-in-haryana-may-not-give-dividends-to-cong-727192.html

I tend to disagree.  My main way of looking at Indian elections focus on the state level anti-incumbency.  The basic idea is that a state level ruling party facing anti-incumbency which is bound to go up over time does not gain from alliances as a good part of the anti-incumbency vote of an alliance partner will be driven away to another party.  On the other hand several opposition parties forming an alliance makes sense as it prevents the split of the anti-incumbent vote.

So in Delhi where the AAP has been in power at the state level since 2015 has the weight of anti-incumbency so an AAP-INC alliance will not work as the math would indicate as the anti-AAP part of the INC vote would just go BJP.  In Haryana the BJP has been in power at the state level since 2014 and has to count on the split of the anti-incumbent opposition vote to win.  Even if the AAP vote is small in Haryana it was 4.3% in 2014 which is significant in a multi-cornered battle and most of it should be transferable to INC since INC is not the state ruling party.  In fact talk of a BJP-INLD alliance in response I think would be a bad idea for both BJP and INLD as it would just polarize the anti-incumbent vote toward INC-AAP as key parts of the anti-BJP part of the INLD base would migrate there or INLD splinter JJP.

AAP is also pushing the idea of an INC-APP alliance in Punjab which the INC has flatly refused.  With the INC as the state ruling part of Punjab since 2017 where anti-incumbency should be starting to build it would serve INC ill to accept such an alliance as it would drive what is left of the AAP vote over to SAD-BJP, especially in SAD seats.     

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat poll for Republic TV had NDA crossing 300  This pollster tends to lean BJP in the past.

NDA    304-316    
UPA    117-126    
Others 110-113  


By state the results seems to indicate a Modi wave in the North which would make sense if that were true.  The TN results are hard to believe given the toxic nature of the BJP brand down there.

UP
BJP      43-52    43%
SP-BSP 25-33   40%
INC        3-4

If INC is at 3-4 then there must be a Muslim vote surge for INC undercutting SP-BSP



Maharashtra
NDA     33-39    45.5%
UPA       9-15    38.5%



MP
BJP     22-25    50%
INC      4-7      39%



Rajasthan
BJP   19-22    52%
INC    3-6      42%



Chhattisgarh
BJP   4-5    46.4%
INC  6-7     45.4%



Jharkhand
BJP  9-11   40.5%
UPA  3-5    38.0% (INC 17.6 JMM 13.4 JVM 5 RJD 2)



TN
NDA   20-21   44%
UPA   18-19    40%

This is a shock and out of sync with most other polls



Bihar
NDA   28-33    45.6%
UPA     7-12     34.4%



WB
AITC   22-28     38%
BJP     11-16     31%
INC      2-3       10%
Left      0-1       14%



Gujarat
BJP    21-23   59%
INC     3-5     38%



Delhi
BJP    5-6    44%
INC    0-1    30%
AAP     1      20%

I have to assume given the  Modi wave this poll implies in other states this poll assumes AAP-INC alliance or else it should be BJP 7 easily



Karnataka
BJP    16-21 (including pro-BJP independent)
UPA     7-12



Haryana
BJP   7-8   38%
INC  1-2    22%
JJP     1



AP
YSRCP    13-16    46%
TDP          8-12    41%
BJP           0-1

I would be curious to know which 1 seat this poll thinks the BJP could win



Telangana
TRS    14-15
AIMIM    1
BJP        1
INC      0-1



Punjab
INC   9-10   48%
NDA   2-4    32%
AAP    0-1



HP
BJP    4
INC    0



Goa
BJP  1-2
INC  0-1



Uttarakhand
BJP   5       54%
INC   0       45%



Odisha
BJD   9-12      40.0%
BJP    8-12      35.4%
INC    0-1       21.6%



Kerala
UPA    14-16
Left      4-5
NDA     0-1



J&K
BJP  1-2
INC 1-2
JKN   2
PDP   1


Northeast (25 seats which includes Assam)
NDA 18-19
UPA   6-7

[jaichind]

CSDS poll on PM choice shows a surge a Modi recovery from May 2018 levels when he hit a nadir.

                         May 14    May 17    Jan 18      May 18     Mar
Modi                     36           44            37          34           43
Rahul Gandhi        16             9            20           24           24

The terror strikes must have played a part as the poll was done in March.  On the other hand Gandhi is holding on to his support from when he was the strongest in May 18.

[jaichind]

Latest CNX poll has it at NDA 275(+5) UPA 147(+7) Others 121 (-12).  So slight shift in momentum in favor of NDA.

--------------
Uttar Pradesh: BJP 45, BSP 14, SP 15, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1
                      NDA 40% SP-BSP-RLD 32% INC 15%
Uttarakhand: BJP 3, Congress 2
Rajasthan: BJP 17, Congress 8
                BJP 48% INC 40%
West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 28, BJP 12, Cong 1, LF 1
                    AITC 37% BJP 27% INC 11% Left 16%
Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 14, BJP 6, Congress 1
Madhya Pradesh: BJP 21, Congress 8
                          BJP 49% INC 45%
Chhattisgarh: BJP 3, Congress 8
                     BJP 38% INC 44%
Punjab: Congress 9, Akali Dal 2, AAP 1, BJP 1
             INC 39% SAD-BJP 29% AAP 20% (very surprising that AAP can be at 20%)
Haryana: BJP 9, Congress 1
              BJP 44% INC 27% INLD 14% (what about JJP?)
Bihar: BJP 14, RJD 8, JD(U) 9, Congress 3, LJP 3, RLSP 1, HAM 1, VIP 1
          NDA 45% UPA Not clear most likely in the 30s
Jharkhand: BJP 9, JMM 2, Congress 3
                 BJP 38% UPA not clear most likely in the low 30s
Gujarat: BJP 24, Congress 2
             BJP 52% INC 45%
Himachal Pradesh: BJP 3, Congress 1
Maharashtra: BJP 21, Shiv Sena 13, Congress 7, NCP 6, Others 1
                    NDA 45% UPA 37%
Goa: BJP 2, Congress 0
Tamil Nadu: DMK 16, AIADMK 10, Congress 5, BJP 1, PMK 2, Other-5
Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 18, TDP 7
Telangana: TRS12, AIMIM 1, Congress 4
Karnataka: BJP 16, Congress 10, JD(S) 2
Kerala: UDF 12, LDF 7, BJP 1
Jammu Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 3, Congress 1                          
Assam: BJP 5, AIUDF 2, Congress 5, Others 2
Other North East states: BJP 4, Congress 4, NPP 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1
Delhi: BJP 7
         BJP 42% INC 31% AAP 20%
Other Union Territories: BJP 4, Congress 2

[jaichind]

So that is two polls in a role that show a BJP surge in UP not because of any increase in vote share but an INC surge that eats into SP-BSP-RLD vote share to drive a bunch of SP-BSP-RLD seats to BJP.

[FredLindq]

I think that you got Kerala wrong there. It should be INC 8, Left 4, BJP 1 and others 7 (+1). All these others can not be UDF since INC contests 16 seats and others UDF (IUML, KCM and RSP) four seats. So i think that it should be INC 8, IUML 2, KCM 1, RSP 1, CPIM 4 and independet CPIM/Left 3 and BJP 1.

[jaichind]

I think that you got Kerala wrong there. It should be INC 8, Left 4, BJP 1 and others 7 (+1). All these others can not be UDF since INC contests 16 seats and others UDF (IUML, KCM and RSP) four seats. So i think that it should be INC 8, IUML 2, KCM 1, RSP 1, CPIM 4 and independet CPIM/Left 3 and BJP 1.

You could be right.  I got UDF 14, LDF 5, BJP 1 from a different source
https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/latest-survey-says-nda-getting-275-upa-147-others-121-727362.html

Which seems to be a typo ... Let me go fix.  It seems it should be UDF 12, LDF 7, BJP 1

[jaichind]

VDP poll on AP assembly elections.  Since JSP have an alliance with BSP CPI CPM the vote share should be

                             Vote             Seats (taking medium value)
YRSCP                   43.85%         112
TDP                       40.00%          61
JSP-BSP-CPI-CPM   11.40%           2
BJP                         2.40%           0
INC                         1.65%          0


Given the fact that TDP is behind even as the incumbent party I think the scale of the TDP defeat will be greater than this.   YSRCP looks like will sweep the LS elections as well with at last 20 out of 25 LS seats if this poll is accurate.

[FredLindq]

I noticed that in Lakshadweep Lok Sabha constituency UPA has two candidates the current MP   Mohammed Faizal P. P. from NCP as well as one candidate from INC. BJP has one candidate och JD(U) one. I also noticed that NDA has only won here once (BJP in 2004). The candidate that one then contested the 2009 election as a candidate for NCP.

[jaichind]

I noticed that in Lakshadweep Lok Sabha constituency UPA has two candidates the current MP   Mohammed Faizal P. P. from NCP as well as one candidate from INC. BJP has one candidate och JD(U) one. I also noticed that NDA has only won here once (BJP in 2004). The candidate that one then contested the 2009 election as a candidate for NCP.

Well Lakshadweep is majority Muslim so BJP is not relevant here.  NCP and JD(U) have been rivals of INC in the past and today.  Right now it is INC and NCP that are dominate there. 

[jaichind]

Republic TV/CVoter poll

             Seats      Vote Share
NDA       267             41.9%
UPA        142            30.7%
Others    134            27.4%



By state

UP



WB

 

Bihar



Odisha



MP



Haryana



Chhattisgarh



Punjab



Rajasthan



Maharashtra



Gujarat



Telangana



Karnataka



TN



AP (TDP ahead ??!!!)



Uttarakhand



Kerala (surprised BJP does not win one)



Jharkhand



HP



Delhi



Goa



J&K



Assam



Manipur



Meghalaya



Mizoram



Nagaland



Tripura



Arunachal Pradesh



No poll for Sikkim nor the Federal districts.  But by looking at the final seats count one could conclude it is

Sikkim - pro-NDA SDF
A&N, Chandigarh, D&N H, D&D - BJP
Pondicherry - INC
Lakshadweep - NCP

[jaichind]

Now that were has been a bunch of polls we can start to average the seat count to get an sense of what a poll of poll projection looks like.  


I will be adjusting the averages by state based on my theory of state level anti-incumbency.  The basic idea is that if the state incumbent party was elected in the last 12 months then current polls most likely underestimate the ruling party.  For 12-24 months then the polls most likely at par and anything earlier  would overestimate the state ruling party.

Since NDA is the only formation that can realistically form a government we can just compute the poll of poll averages of NDA seats by state.  Also since every poll count the various Northeast pro-BJP parties as BJP even though they are running separately from BJP (I count them as not NDA but pro-NDA parties) we will count them as NDA in these averages.  

Based on the data I have I can construct this chart

State    Total Seats    Date of last             State Ruling       Average NDA      Adjusted NDA
                              assembly election        party                  seats                    seats
J&K               6            2014                          PDP                     2.1                      2
HP                4         Late 2017                      BJP                      3.7                      4
Haryana       10             2014                         BJP                      8.1                     6
Punjab         13         Early 2017                     INC                     2.3                      3
Delhi             7             2015                         AAP                     6.3                      7
Uttarakhand   5         Early 2017                    BJP                      4.4                      4
UP               80         Early 2017                    BJP                     39.5                    36
Bihar           40             2015                        JD(U)                  29.7                    28
MP              29          Late 2018                    INC                     21.8                    20
Rajasthan     25         Late 2018                    INC                     19.1                    17
Chhattisgarh 11         Late 2018                    INC                      3.9                      3
Jharkhand    14            2014                         BJP                      7.9                      6
Gujarat         26         Late 2017                    BJP                    22.1                     22
Maharashtra  48           2014                         BJP                    35.3                     32
Goa                2         Early 2017                   BJP                     1.8                       1
WB               42            2016                        AITC                  10.2                     12
Orissa           21            2014                        BJD                     9.9                     12
Karnataka     28         Early 2018                   INC                   15.4                     15
AP                25             2014                       TDP                     0.8                      0
Telangana     17          Late 2018                   TRS                     0.7                      0
TN                39            2016                     AIADMK                12.6                    10
Kerala           20             2014                       Left                     0.8                      1
A&N                1                                                                        1                      1
Chandigarh     1                                                                        1                       1
D&N H            1                                                                        1                       1
D&D               1                                                                        1                       1
Pondicherry     1             2016                       INC                    0.3                       0
Lakshadweep   1                                                                       0                       0
Assam           14            2016                        BJP                    7.4                       7
Arunachal P     2             2014                       BJP                    1.5                       2
Manipur           2          Early 2017                 BJP                    1.2                       1
Mizoram          1          Late 2018                   MNF                   0.2                      1
Nagaland         1          Early 2018                 NDPP                     1                      1
Tripura            2          Early 2018                 BJP                        2                       2
Meghalaya       2          Early 2018                 NPP                    0.8                       2
Sikkim             1            2014                       SDF                       1                       1
Total             543                                                                  277.6                  262
 
So a poll of poll average gets NDA plus pro-NDA parties at 277.6 seats.  But if you do my adjustment to take into account state level anti-incumbency I have it at 262.  Even if I am right BJP should be able to rope in YSRCP to from the government.  

[jaichind]

Some good India Today data

India Today PSE poll on Modi net stratification
 

Seems to imply the Modi wave is still strong in the Hindi North and that BJP on route to a good night in Odisha.  But TN should be bad for NDA so I am confused at some polls showing NDA doing well in TN.


India Today did some poll of polls itself. 

First vote share


Where everyone is the same.  My own model has NDA at 39.7% and UPA at 31.0% although my model does not count JKN in J&K and CPI(ML) in Bihar as UPA as they only have partial alliances with UPA.  So if I used the various polling firms methodology of counting them as UPA my vote share number might be a bit higer.

In terms of seats
 


Poll of poll seat count is 277 for NDA.

[jaichind]

Times Now-VMR Opinion Poll

NDA    279   40.8%
UPA     149   30.7%
Others 115   28.5%


By state

TN



Kerala



Karnataka



AP



Telangana



Maharashtra



Gujarat



Rajasthan



Goa



D&N H



UP



Uttarakhand



MP



Chhattisgarh



Delhi



Haryana



HP



J&K



Punjab



Chandigarh



WB



Bihar



Jharkhand



Assam



Odisha



Tripura



Mizoram



Nagaland

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis of Telangana.

Demographic data


Poll showing rough sizes of voting blocs


Points of if 2018 Dec assembly election is repeated it will be TRS landslide


Points out something I have been saying.  If a LS election is held within a year of an assembly election the size of the winner margin of victory goes up.  If true for MP Rajasthan Chhattisgarh then BJP is in big trouble.


Points out that TRS has all sorts of populist schemes to rope in various voting blocs