2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[Former President tack50]

TRS's leader KCR claims that BJP will not cross 150 seats and INC will not cross 100 seats.

https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/bjp-will-not-win-more-than-150-lok-sabha-seats-congress-not-more-than-100-ktr-1553771784749.html

He is trying to create a narrative that a non-BJP non-INC government is possible.   Math shows that it is not.

Using my current model, there are 193 seats where BJP and INC occupy first and second place.  There is another 181 seats where BJP is first or second but the other party is not INC.   There are 69 seats where INC is first or second but the other party is not BJP.   For KCR's claims to be true (BJP plus INC is at 250 seats or less) out of the 250 seats where BJP or INC is in the running but not against each other (181+69) BJP or INC has to win only 57 out of them or around 20% since BJP plus INC will win 193 seats for sure between them.  A strike rate of 20% when either BJP or INC is in the running versus another non-BJP non-INC is very unlikely.  A strike rate of 50% would put BJP plus INC at 318 which I think is more where the election will come down to. 

For KCR's vision of a majority that excludes BJP and INC a huge black swan event must take place.

Even in that case, since BJP and INC will almost certainly come in first and second, wouldn't the most likely scenario be still a BJP or INC government, just propped up by a ton of regional/minor parties?

Would a coalition of literally all regional/minor parties against BJP and INC even make sense?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein

LOL, my parents say that he is
Dumb i***t

Almost everyone I know who follows Indian politics thinks the same .


Even among the people who I know are not only hardcore democratic supporters but part of the Bernie wing of the party all strongly support Modi as well

[Sestak]

Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein

LOL, my parents say that he is
Dumb i***t

Almost everyone I know who follows Indian politics thinks the same .


Even among the people who I know are not only hardcore democratic supporters but part of the Bernie wing of the party all strongly support Modi as well

Cause they’re nationalists lol.

[jaichind]

TRS's leader KCR claims that BJP will not cross 150 seats and INC will not cross 100 seats.

https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/bjp-will-not-win-more-than-150-lok-sabha-seats-congress-not-more-than-100-ktr-1553771784749.html

He is trying to create a narrative that a non-BJP non-INC government is possible.   Math shows that it is not.

Using my current model, there are 193 seats where BJP and INC occupy first and second place.  There is another 181 seats where BJP is first or second but the other party is not INC.   There are 69 seats where INC is first or second but the other party is not BJP.   For KCR's claims to be true (BJP plus INC is at 250 seats or less) out of the 250 seats where BJP or INC is in the running but not against each other (181+69) BJP or INC has to win only 57 out of them or around 20% since BJP plus INC will win 193 seats for sure between them.  A strike rate of 20% when either BJP or INC is in the running versus another non-BJP non-INC is very unlikely.  A strike rate of 50% would put BJP plus INC at 318 which I think is more where the election will come down to. 

For KCR's vision of a majority that excludes BJP and INC a huge black swan event must take place.

Even in that case, since BJP and INC will almost certainly come in first and second, wouldn't the most likely scenario be still a BJP or INC government, just propped up by a ton of regional/minor parties?

Would a coalition of literally all regional/minor parties against BJP and INC even make sense?

It would not and KCR knows it.  All KCR is doing is to build a narrative that there can be a government at the center without BJP nor INC.  For the LS election KCR is fearful that the it becomes polarized between BJP and INC and his TRS vote would splinter into tactical voting for either BJP or INC.  To hold his flock together he need to tell them: Vote for TRS and and we can build a government of national unity without BJP nor INC.   The fact that mathematically this is not possible is really not an issue for KCR.     

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein

LOL, my parents say that he is
Dumb i***t

Almost everyone I know who follows Indian politics thinks the same .


Even among the people who I know are not only hardcore democratic supporters but part of the Bernie wing of the party all strongly support Modi as well

Cause they’re nationalists lol.

No they just hate the Congress party more

[jaichind]

Bookies in Nagpur which is the largest city of the Eastern region of Vidarbha in Mahabharata (this region has on again and off again sentiments of separatism from the  Mahabharata which is seen as dominated by Mumbai) has current odds of the   Mahabharata  LS results of BJP-SHS at 28-30 out of 48 vs 41 in 2014.  That is about where I have it and I think it could get worse for BJP-SHS if the alliances is not working on the ground.  Overall that BJP-SHS at 28-30 in Maharashtra is not that great for Modi and would imply that the NDA will not get a majority on its own and that the BJP would be something like 200 seats which would be the danger zone for Modi.  The same bookies have betting odds of NDA getting around 243 seats which is pretty consistent with  JP-SHS at 28-30 in Maharashtra.

[Continential]

Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein

LOL, my parents say that he is
Dumb i***t

Almost everyone I know who follows Indian politics thinks the same .


Even among the people who I know are not only hardcore democratic supporters but part of the Bernie wing of the party all strongly support Modi as well

Cause they’re nationalists lol.

No they just hate the Congress party more

My parents support Congress because they hate Modi and they dislike Ganahi.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein

LOL, my parents say that he is
Dumb i***t

Almost everyone I know who follows Indian politics thinks the same .


Even among the people who I know are not only hardcore democratic supporters but part of the Bernie wing of the party all strongly support Modi as well

Cause they’re nationalists lol.

No they just hate the Congress party more

My parents support Congress because they hate Modi and they dislike Ganahi.

My parents do like Modi also and believe he is doing a good job too . It may be hard for people on this forum to believe but compared to the vast majority of my family I am not a Modi fan , they are far bigger supporters of Modi than either my parents or I am .

[jaichind]

My parents do like Modi also and believe he is doing a good job too . It may be hard for people on this forum to believe but compared to the vast majority of my family I am not a Modi fan , they are far bigger supporters of Modi than either my parents or I am .

Well, I think this election the caste polarization will become more extreme.  A lot of Dalit and Tribal support for BJP from 2014 will swing away from BJP even as Upper Caste and higher OBCs are swinging toward BJP.  Most Indians that live in the USA are Upper Caste so obviously they will be for Modi and more so this year than in 2014.

[jaichind]

It seems talks between INC and AAP has progressed to situation where an alliance is possible in Delhi where it will be AAP 4 INC 3.  The main sticking point seems to be which seats goes to which party.  If there is an alliance there will be rebels on both sides that will contest against the official party of the alliance given the hostilely of certain factions of the AAP and INC toward each other.

[jaichind]

Cvoter tracking poll seems to indicate that national security issues are falling in salience over the last couple of week 

https://in.reuters.com/article/india-election-poll/boost-to-bjp-from-terror-strike-waning-ahead-of-election-poll-idINKCN1RB05J?il=0

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/editorcharts/INDIA-ELECTION-POLL/0H001PBLJ5HT/index.html

In mid Feb the key issue was economic for around 60% of the electorate and national security around 3%.  After the Kashmir terrorist attack and Indian response it became around 45% for economic issues and 27% for national security in early March.   By end of March this reverted to 53% economic issues and 15% for national security.  If this continues this might converge toward a "wave-less" election which I feel the fundamentals given the state level election cycles is not positive for BJP.

[jaichind]

Wikipedia has some nice maps of NDA and UPA seat sharing so far

NDA alliance map


By state where it is not just all BJP

Assam: BPF will contest Bodo area, AGP has poor seat allocation with 2 out of 3 AGP seats are in AIUDF strongholds and the other in an INC stronghold


Bihar


Jharkhand: AJSU only got one seat but at least it is a winnable seat


Kerala: BDJS contesting in areas where Ezhava are numerous


Maharashtra: BJP has more seats in Eastern Maharashtra and SHS has more seats in Mumbai and Western Maharashtra


Punjab: BJP has Hindu seats and SAD have Sikh seats


TN: AIADMK used to be strong in Southern TN but that is where AIADMK splinter AMMK is strong so AIADMK gave away a lot of Southern TN seats to their allies.




For UPA states which where it is not just INC

Bihar


Jharkhand


Karnataka: JD(S) seats in Southern Karnataka where it is strong


Maharashtra:  INC stronger in Eastern Maharashtra while NCP stronger in Mumbai/Western Maharashtra


Wikipedia does not seem to have the map for TN but I found a map on the Hindu that has it

[jaichind]

Poll Eyes poll for Bihar done earlier in March

            Seats     Vote share
NDA        28          42%
UPA         12          39%

Which is not that bad of a poll for UPA.  With the vote share so close lots of seats are tossups according to this poll.  It has Strong UPA 6 Lean UPA 2 Tossup 16 Lean NDA 13 Strong NDA 3 so this poll assumes that NDA will carry most of the Tossups.  If not then the Bihar election could move further toward UPA.

[jaichind]

Other Poll Eyes/Political Edge polls

MP
            Seats     Vote share
BJP         16          47%
INC         13          47%

Which seems to match the 2018 assembly election results.  This seems to imply no Modi wave.  It has Strong INC 3 Lean INC 6 Tossup 8 Lean BJP 8 Strong BJP 4.


Haryana
              Seats     Vote share
BJP            8             46%
INC           2              37%
INLD         0               9%
Others       0               8%  (BSP, AAP, JJP)

This poll seem to imply the complete implosion of the 2014 INLD vote which shifted to both BJP and INC.  Seats share and INLD vote share looks right.  I think BSP AAP JJP will do better than this at the expense of both BJP and INC.


Jharkhand

            Seat Count    Vote share
UPA           9                 51%
NDA          5                 42%

UPA is strong in Northern Jharkand and NDA stronger in Southern Jharkhand.  It has the seat breakdown at Strong UPA 2 Weak UPA 5 Tossup 4 Weak NDA 2 Strong NDA 1


Odisha

            Seats        Vote share
BJD        18               50%
BJP          2               25%
INC          1               16%

Which is a shocking victory for BJD.  The CW is that the BJP should make large gains based on the anti-incumbency toward BJD as well as the fall of the INC vote.   The INC vote did fall (but somehow wins a seat? perhaps it is based on INC alliance with JMM that wins a tribal seat) but it seems that it was the BJD that gains and not BJP.
 
Their poll of Gujarat in Mid March also shows a "poor" result for BJP

Political consultancy firm Political Edge  did a poll of Gujarat which is quite out of sync with other media polls.  It has it at

            Seats     Vote share
BJP         16            50%
INC         10            43%

Which is similar to the 2017 Gujarat assembly election implied results
           
            Seats     Vote share
BJP         19            50%
INC+        7            43%

The poll seem to indicate a swing toward INC in tribal areas in the North as well as in the Southern Saurashtra area where  Hardik Patel joining INC seems to have also generated a swing. The rest of Gujarat saw a swing away from INC but the net effect is help INC get ahead in some marginal seats.

This poll seems to indicate a lack of a Modi wave which could be problematic for BJP if true.

[jaichind]

Poll Eyes/Political Edge seems to be Today's Chanakya in reverse.  Today's Chanakya polls always skew in favor of BJP (except for the 2018 assembly election cycle) and Poll Eyes/Political Edge  seems to have a skew against BJP.

[jaichind]

In Odisha it seems INC have formed an alliance with JMM CPM CPI.  There are no details yet so this could unravel.  But if true INC will not win any seats as a result, in my view, but it will play up the narrative that the INC is a viable party in Odisha which implicitly hurts BJP and helps BJD.  The way the BJP can defeat BJD is for the INC to collapse and hope all the anti-BJD INC voters swing over to BJP.

In other good news for INC, in Assam AIUDF has announced that it will only run in the 3 seats it won in 2014.  It will not endorse  INC in the rest of Assam but that is mostly tactical since an open AIUDF support for INC will drive all INC Ahom Hindu voters to BJP.  This will still be a double edged sword for INC since it will clearly pick up the all Muslim AIUDF vote but even without an open AIUDF support for INC in the rest of Assam some INC Ahom Hindu voters will still vote BJP.  I think this is a net win for INC but not as much as what the 2014 vote share will suggest.  And in the 3 AIUDF seats it is critical that INC continues the attack on AIUDF as any signs that INC is going soft on AIUDF would again drive the INC vote toward BJP-AGP and could cost AIUDF a seat.

[jaichind]

Rahul Gandhi will also contest from Wayanad in Kerala in addition to his seat in Amethi in UP.  It seems that INC leaders in the South have been pressuring Rahul Gandhi to contest in the South to show that INC is an all India party.  Wayanad seems to be in the trisection between TN, Kerala, and Karnataka.  It is a somewhat lean INC seat in Kerala but with the tide in Kerala clearly going against Left Front this should be a easy win for INC one way or another.

Even though it is pretty clear that Rahul Gandhi should win from his seat in UP of Amethi this move I think will play up the BJP as well as SP-BSP message that INC is in a downswing in UP and Rahul Gandhi is running away from a fight there.

I think what Rahul Gandhi should do is to not contest in Amethi, leaving that seat to his sister Priyanka Gandhi and instead run in Varanasi against Modi.  He will lose but a key part of the BJP election campaign is to unleash Modi across India. Rahul Gandhi running in Varanasi would act to pin Modi down somewhat to make sure he does not lose which weakens the BJP overall.  This act of personal sacrifice and showing that he is not afraid of a tough and most likely losing fight will galvanize the INC vote across India.  There is not real loss for Rahul Gandhi. He is not going to be PM anyway after this election so I am not sure what is the value of him being in the LS.  He can always get in via a by-election in a year or two.   It is unlikely Rahul Gandhi will take my advice. 

[jaichind]

VPA poll for some states.  I will provide change from VPA poll in early March where VPA covered them in early Mar.  Overall slight bad news for BJP as the trend seems to be a slight shift away from BJP since early March.

Karnataka
             Seats        Vote share
BJP         17(+2)          46% (-0.8%)
UPA        10(-3)           48% (-1.0%)  (INC 8 JD(S) 2)
INC rebel  1

Telangana
                  Seats           Vote share
TRS              15                 44.62%
INC                1                 30.01%
BJP                0                 13.79%
AIMIM            1                  4.70%
JSP-CPI-CPM  0                   1.75%

Goa: BJP 2 INC 0

Kerala
             Seats        Vote share
UPA         16               43%
Left           3               32%
NDA          1               20%

Bihar
             Seats        Vote share
NDA        29(-5)         47.9%(-1.1%) (BJP 14 JD(U) 12 LJP 3)
UPA        11(+5)        41.2%(+3.2%) (RJD 8 INC 2 CPI(ML) 1)

Odisha: BJP 13 BJD 8

Jharkhand: NDA 7 (BJP 7) UPA 7(INC 4 JMM 2 JVM 1)

WB: AITC 28 BJP 13 INC 1 Left 0

Gujarat
             Seats    Vote share
BJP          24(-)       53%(-)
INC           2(-)       40%(-)

Maharashtra: NDA 39 UPA 9

Rajasthan: BJP 20(-) INC 5(-)

Punjab
             Seats         Vote share
INC          10(+3)      43.1%
NDA           1(-4)       33.7% (SAD 1 BJP 0)
AAP           1             14.1%
Others       1(+1)        9.1%

Uttarakhand: BJP 5 INC 0

HP: BJP 4 INC 0

Delhi
             Seats         Vote share
BJP            7            42.04%
AAP           0             32.30%
INC           0             18.90%

Haryana: BJP 9(-) INC 1 (+1) JJP 0(-1)

Chhattisgarh: INC 9(-) BJP 2(-)

MP: BJP 24(+2) INC 5(-2)

Northeast: BJP to win 12 out of 25 seats (not clear how other BJP allies or pro-BJP parties will do)

For UP they said there are tons of tossups so they have it at

NDA ahead in 30
SP-BSP-RLD ahead in 24
INC ahead in 3
PSP (SP splinter) ahead in 1
NDA/SP-BSP-RLD neck-to-neck in 21 seast
NDA/INC neck-to-neck in 3 seats

They said they see a real surge for INC due to Priyanka Gandhi and it is not clear if that is hurting BJP or SP-BSP-RLD.  The poll says that Priyanka Gandhi will become a powerful political figure in the future based on these results.

In terms of vote share they have it at

SP-BSP-RLD       39.37%(-1.33%)
NDA                   38.31%(-4.09%
INC                    16.33%(+5.33%)
PSP                      2.30%(NA)

Overall while it is clear NDA is ahead the momentum is ether neutral or slightly running against BJP.  If there is a Modi wave you should see the momentum move toward BJP.  

[jaichind]

News Nation poll for UP

                      Seats    Vote Share
SP-BSP-RLD     42          39%
BJP-AD            37          37%
INC                  1           12%


Which means that INC loses one of its seat which I assume is Rahul Gandhi's Amethi seat.  Of course if INC vote share is at 12% I really doubt Rahul Gandhi will lose.  Overall the main narrative here is the surprisingly high vote share for INC (if you ignore the fact that it projects that INC is down to 1 seat)

[jaichind]

ABP-Nielsen state polls

Gujarat: BJP 20 INC 6


WB: AITC 31 BJP 8 INC 3


Odisha: BJP 13 BJD 7 INC 1


Jharkhand: NDA 9 UPA 5


Rajasthan: BJP 19 INC 6


MP: BJP 24 INC 5


Chhattisgarh: INC 8 BJP 3


Haryana: BJP 8 INC 2

Punjab: INC 9 NDA 2 Others 2 (I assume AAP)

HP: BJP 4 INC 0


Uttarakhand: BJP 4 INC 1


J&K: JKN 3 BJP 2 INC 1


Maharashtra: NDA 37 UPA 11

[jaichind]

Rahul Gandhi has made the call to not have an alliance with AAP in Delhi. With that pretty much all the major alliances (or not) decisions have been made.  There are a few minor ones (like will SBSP go it alone in UP or stay in NDA and will NISHAD which represents the Nishad caste (surprise surprise) join NDA now that they have broken with SP-BSP-RLD, will RLP go it alone or go with INC in Rajasthan) but the impact will be minor.  With that I should be able to put out my initial bottoms up seat and vote share projection soon.

[jaichind]

My first cut bottoms up projection by state.  

My basic approach is to view the election as a confederation of state elections.  The main driver being state level anti-incumbency.   If a state just held an assembly election then I tend to think polls underestimate the incumbent party,  if the state held assembly elections 1-2 years ago then I think polls tend to be par.  If the state had assembly elections 4-5 years ago then I tend to think polll overestimate the incumbent party.  

Based on that principle I created separate models every state to generate swings and also take into account key changes in candidates and alliance dynamics.   I did not take into account rebels yet so the vote share calculations are mostly overestimating the dominate parties.

J&K:
JKN has tactical alliance with INC and will sweep Kashmir.  BJP hods Jammu with ease.

2019
NDA:       2 BJP        34.4%
UPA:        1 INC       28.6%
Others     3 JKN       16.7%
               0 PDP       14.0%

2014
NDA:       3 (3 BJP)               32.6%
UPA:       0 (0 NC, 0 INC)       34.3%
Others:   3 PDP                     20.7%


HP:
Mostly replicates 2017 assembly elections, high number of Upper Caste voters gives BJP a sweep.

2019
NDA: 4 BJP     53.0%
UPA: 0 INC     44.1%

2014
NDA: 4 BJP      53.9%
UPA: 0 INC      41.1%


Haryana:
INLD split with splinter JPP helps both BJP and INC.  BJP splinter LSP does not make that much of an impact other than in the seat of the LSP leader.

2019
NDA:      7 BJP              39.8%
UPA:      3 INC              28.7%
Others:  0  BSP-LSP        7.5%
             0 INLD              7.3%
             0 JJP                 9.2%
             0 AAP               4.8%

2014:
NDA:     7 (7 BJP 0 HJC)        40.9%
UPA:     1 INC                       23.0%
Others: 2 INLD                     24.4%
            0 BSP                        4.6%
            0 AAP                        4.3%


Punjab:
AAP has lost a lot of ground since 2017 assembly elections.  They could have gone to SAD to hurt INC.  But most of that support seems to gone to AAP splinter PEP which split the anti-INC vote to help INC.

2019
NDA:     3 (3 SAD, 0 BJP)     35.9%
UPA:    10 INC                     39.0%
Others: 0 BSP-PEP-LIF         12.0%
            0 AAP                       9.6%

2014:
NDA:     6 (4 SAD, 2 BJP)  35.2%
UPA:     3 INC                  33.2%
Others: 4 AAP                  24.5%
            0 BSP                   1.9%


Delhi
AAP landslide victory of 2015 assembly elections is now a distant memory with AAP administration losing a lot of credibility.    AAP loses support  back to INC which means BJP sweeps the polls again

2019
NDA:    7 BJP     43.5%
UPA:     0 INC    23.6%
Others: 0 AAP    28.1%

2014:
NDA:    7 BJP   46.6%
UPA:     0 INC  15.2%
Others: 0 AAP  33.1%


Uttarakhand
Results will mostly mimic 2017 assembly election with BJP losing some ground due to anti-incumbency which is partly mitigated by Modi's popularity in the Hindu heartland  

2019
NDA:     4 BJP           47.4%
UPA:     1 INC           41.8%
Others  0 BSP-SP        8.2%

2014:
NDA:    5 BJP    55.9%
UPA:     0 INC    34.4%
Others: 0 BSP     4.8%


UP:
SP-BSP-RLD Grand Alliance consolidates backward vote to beat back BJP.  INC resurgence in some seats and SP splinter PSP cuts into Grand Alliance votes and prevents even greater BJP losses.

2019
NDA:    34 (32 BJP 2 AD(S))                            41.7%
UPA:      2 INC-JAP-AD (2 INC)                          9.1%
Others: 44 SP-BSP-RLD(22 SP 21 BSP 1 RLD )  42.9%
             0 PSP                                                 1.9%

2014
NDA:    73 (71 BJP 2 AD)   43.6%
UPA:       2 INC                   8.5%
Others:   5 SP                   22.3%
              0 BSP                 19.8%


Bihar:
Nitish Kumar's popularity pulls NDA ahead despite anti-incumbency.  CPI(ML) has tactical alliance with UPA.
 
2019
NDA:   28 (14 BJP 9 JD(U) 5 LJP)                      48.4%
UPA:    12 (6 RJD 5 INC 1 RLSP 0 HAM 0 VIP)    42.4%
Others   0 CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI                               2.0%

2014
NDA:   31 (22 BJP 6 LJP 3 RLSP)         39.5%
UPA:     7 (4 RJD 2 INC 1 NCP)           30.3%
Others: 2 JD(U)-CPI (2 JD(U) 0 CPI)   17.2%


MP
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory
 
2019
NDA:  20 BJP        49.9%
UPA:    9 INC        42.0%
Others 0 SP-BSP     4.5%

2014
NDA:  27 BJP     54.8%
UPA:    2 INC     35.4%


Rajasthan
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory

2019
NDA: 15 BJP     49.3%
UPA:  10 INC    46.3%

2014
NDA: 25 BJP    55.6%
UPA:   0 INC    30.7%


Chhattisgarh
Tribal votes seems to be shifting away from BJP which adds to the INC edge after the 2018 assembly election victory which will contain the Modi wave in Upper Caste areas.

2019
NDA:    4 BJP          40.7%
UPA:     7 INC         45.0%
Others: 0 BSP-JCC    9.1%

2014
NDA:  10 BJP    49.7%
UPA:    1 INC    39.1%


Jharkhand
INC-JMM-JVM-RJD alliance will create a base too large for BJP to beat even with AJSU alliance, especially given anti-incumbency building up.

2019
NDA:  5 (5 BJP 0 AJSU)                      42.4%
UPA:   9 (4 JMM 2 INC 2 JVM 1 RJD)    47.6%

2014
NDA:  12 BJP                            40.7%                
UPA:    2 (2 JMM 0 INC 0 RJD)    24.6%
           0 JVM                            12.3%
           0 AJSU                            3.8%


Gujarat
INC make s a slight comeback but the Modi wave is still powerful in his home state.

2019
NDA:  22 BJP        52.3%
UPA:    4 INC        42.6%

2014
NDA:  26 BJP                       60.1%
UPA:    0 (0 INC 0 NCP)        34.4%


Maharashtra
BJP got SHS to come aboard to an alliance which might not work on the ground.  INC and NCP deeply divided but does have de facto NMS support.  Dalit-Muslim BVA will split the INC-NCP vote and help give NDA a partial victory despite anti-incumbency.

2019
NDA:       31 (18 BJP 13 SHS)                             47.2%
UPA:        17 (7 INC 8 NCP 1 SWP 1 BVA 0 YSP)   43.6%
Others:     0 VBA                                                 3.3%

2014
NDA:    42 (23 BJP 18 SHS 1 SWP)         51.6%
UPA:      6 (2 INC 4 NCP)                       35.0%
Others:  0 NMS                                       1.5%


Goa
BJP government in turmoil should give INC a chance

2019
NDA: 1 BJP    50.9%
UPA: 1 INC    43.8%

2014
NDA: 2 BJP    54.1%
UPA:  0 INC   37.0%


WB:
Left Front implosion and lack of INC-Left Front tactical alliance will doom Left Front.  BJP surges as it captures the anti-incumbency vote.

2019
NDA:        9 BJP             34.2%
UPA:         2 INC              7.6%
Others:   31 AITC           40.4%
               0  Left Front    15.0%

2014
NDA:      2 BJP           17.0%
UPA        4 INC            9.7%
Others: 34 AITC         39.8%
             2 Left Front   30.1%


Orissa:
INC imploding and anti-incumbency votes going to BJP leads to a shock BJP narrow victory here.  

2019
NDA:    11 BJP                         39.1%
UPA:      0 INC-JMM-CPI-CPM    18.2%
Others: 10 BJD                        39.3%

2014
NDA:     1 BJP     21.9%
UPA       0 INC    26.4%
Others: 20 BJD   44.8%


Karnataka
INC-JD(S) alliance will not work well on the ground letting BJP fight INC-JD(S) to a near tie.

2019
NDA:   13 BJP                        48.3%
UPA:    15 (11 INC 4 JD(S))    48.6%
 

2014
NDA:   17 BJP      43.4%
UPA:     9 INC      41.2%
Others: 2 JD(S)   11.2%


AP
5 way battle and JSP splitting the anti-incumbency vote  allows TDP to avoid a total wipe-out. YSRCP most likely will back BJP post-election.  YSRCP alliance with TRS also drives some anti-Telagana votes to TDP.

2019
NDA:       0 BJP                       7.4%
UPA:        0 INC                      7.9%
Others:  21 YSRCP                 37.5%
              4 TDP                      32.6%
              0 JSP-BSP-CPI-CPM  12.4%

2014
NDA:    17 (15 TDP 2 BJP)    48.0%
UPA:       0 INC                     2.9%
Others:   8 YSRCP                45.7%


Telangana
TRS to repeat the 2018 assembly election landslide.  CPI TDP are backing to INC to no avail as AIMIM has a tactical alliance with TRS.  YSRCP pretty much pulled out of the state to back TRS.

2019
NDA:      0 BJP                   13.7%
UPA:       0 INC                  30.6%
Others: 16 TRS                  46.7%
              1 AIMIM                2.7%
              0 JSP-BSP-CPM      3.6%

2014
NDA:      2 (1 BJP 1 TDP)     22.8%
UPA:      2 INC                    25.7%
Others: 11 TRS                   34.9%
             1 YSRCP                 4.5%
             1 AIMIM                 3.5%


TN
AIADMK split into splinter AMMK and anti-incumbency will defeat NDA despite the size of the alliance.  The NDA defeat could end up being worse than this.

2019
NDA:      8 (5 AIADMK 1 BJP 1 PMK 0 DMDK 0 PT 0 TMC 0 PNK)         37.4%
UPA      31 (18 DMK 6 INC 2 VCK 2 CPI 2 CPM 1 MUL 0 IJK 0 KMDK ) 44.2%
Others:  0 AMMK                                                                            12.1%
             0 NMN                                                                                3.2%
              
2014
NDA:       2 (1 PMK 1 BJP 0 DMDK 0 MDMK)     18.7%
UPA:       0 INC                                                4.4%
Others:  39 AIADMK                                       44.9%
              0 DMK                                             27.2%


Kerala
Sabarimala temple issue will crush Left Front and lead to a large scale defection of Left Front vote to BJP who will finally win a seat in Kerala.  This and anti-incumbency will lead to a UPA landslide.  Rahul Gandhi running in Kerala is part of the UPA moving in for the kill.
 
2019
NDA:       1 (1 BJP 0 BDJS 0 KEC(T))              21.3%
UPA:      16 (12 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)  41.4%
Others:   3  Left Front                                   33.6%

2014
NDA:     0 BJP                                              10.9%
UPA:    12 (8 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)      42.5%
Others:  8 Left Front                                    41.6%


Assam
NDA was about to sweep the state until the new citizenship bill.  Now it is a real fight with anti-incumbency building up.  AIUDF only running in 3 seats helps INC partly but also drives Hindu votes away from INC to NDA.

2019
NDA:       7 (6 BJP 1 BPF 0 AGP)     46.6%
UPA:        4 INC                            36.1%
Others:    3 AIUDF                         11.2%

2014
NDA:      7 BJP                    38.7%
UPA:       3 (3 INC 0 BPF)     31.5%
Others:   3 AIUDF                15.0%
              1 ex-ULFA               4.2%
              0 AGP                     3.9%


6 Federal districts
I expect here to be a small swing away from NDA to UPA with INC gaining a couple of seats

2019
NDA:     3 (3 BJP 0 AINRC)
UPA:     3 (2 INC 1 NCP)

2014
NDA:      5 (4 BJP 1 AINRC)
UPA:     1 (0 INC 1 NCP)


11 Northeast seats
Before the new citizenship bill NDA was going to sweep.  Now several pro-BJP parties are running separately and away from BJP.  Still NDA plus pro-NDA parties will have the edge.  

2019
NDA:     6 (5 BJP 1 NDPP 1)
UPA:      1 INC
Others:  0 Left Front
             4 pro-NDA (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 UDP 1 MNF)

2014
NDA:      4 (1 BJP 1 NPF 1 NPP 1 SDF)
UPA:      5 INC
Others:  2 Left Front


The total result of all this are

NDA: 246 (205 BJP)  39.7% (32.1% BJP)
UPA   153 (99 INC)   30.8% (22.4% INC)

Back in 2014 it was

NDA:  336 (282 BJP)  38.5% (31.1% BJP)
UPA:     59 ( 44 INC)  23.1% (19.3% INC)

So the BJP vote share are mostly similar to 2014 but INC saw a moderate increase.

In 2019
BJP will come in first place in 205 seats and second place 172 seats making its "reach" 377
INC will come in first place in 99 seats and second place 163 seats making its "reach" 262

In 2014
BJP come in first place in 282 seats and second place 54  seats making its "reach" 336
INC will come in first place in 44 seats and second place 224 seats making its "reach" 268

So INC's "reach" stayed around the same (it became more relevant in TN but lost relevance in WB, Odisha and the Northesst) and BJP's "reach" increased  by 40 some seats (mostly in WB, Odisha and the Northeast)

Rest of the seats are
Pro-NDA            4 (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 UDP 1 MNF)
Pro-UPA             7 (4 TDP 3 JKN)
Federal Front     47 (21 YSRCP 16 TRS 10 BJD)
Grand Alliance   75 (31 AITC 22 SP 21 BSP 1 RLD)
Left                   7 (3 Left Front 2 CPI 2 CPM) [2 CPI 2 CPM from alliance with UPA in TN)
Anti-NDA           4 (3 AIUDF 1 AIMIM)


NDA should be able to form a government with pro-NDA parties and some Federal Front party support.  YSRCP will for sure back NDA as most likely will TRS.  BJD might stay away to deal with its new rival the BJP in Odisha.

[jaichind]

India TV-CNX poll for 3 states with diff from Mar 2019 poll

UP: NDA 46(+5) SP-BSP-RLD 30(-5) UPA 4(--)
 
WB: AITC  28 (-2) BJP 12 (--) INC 1 (+1) Left 1 (+1)
 
Odisha: BJD  15 (+1) BJP 5 (-2) UPA 1 (+1)
 
Bihar: NDA 28(-2) UPA 12(+2)

Rajastahan: BJP 20(--)  INC 5(--)

MP: BJP 23(--) INC 6(--)

Chhattisgarh INC 8(+3) BJP 3(-3)

Assam: NDA 8(--) INC 4(--) AIUDF 2(--)

Northeast NDA 7(--) UPA 3(--) Left 1(--)

Gujarat: BJP 23(-3) INC 3(+3)

AP: YSRCP 20(-2) TDP 5(+2)

Telengana: TRS 14(--) INC 2(--)  AIMIM 1(--)

Karnataka: BJP 14(+1) UPA 14(-1)

Punjab: INC 9(--) NDA 3(--) AAP 1(--)

Haryana: BJP 9(--) INC 1(--)

Kerala: UPA 12(--) Left 7(--) BJP 1(--)

Delhi BJP 7(--) INC 0(--) AAP 0(--)

J&K: BJP 2(--) INC 1(--) JKN 2(--) PDP 1(--)

HP: BJP 4(--) INC 0(--)

Goa: BJP 2(--) INC 0(--)

Uttarakhand: BJP 4(-1) INC 1(+1)

Maharashtra: NDA 32(--) UPA 16(--)

Jharkhand: NDA 8(--) UPA 6(--)

With total NDA 270 (-15) UPA 140(+13) 133(+2)

Overall the momentum is moving slightly against NDA.  Only real bright spot for NDA was the increase in seat share in UP.

The UP vote share which has

NDA            42%
SP-BSP-RLD 40%
INC             16%

Has a surprising large vote share for INC.

[jaichind]

INC manifesto came out.   In addition to the Rahul Gandhi minimum income guarantee INC also promises to waive all farm loans across India if it came to power.  So in other words the INC platform is going to be 'Free !! Free !!! Free !!!"  Of course since there is zero chance INC will come to power this set of promises will not be tested. 

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/telangana-news/over-170-farmers-to-launch-mega-campaign-for-telangana-polls-in-nizamabad-2015628

In the Telangana seat of Nizamabad where the daughter of TRS leader KCR is contesting on the TRS ticket has saw over 170 farmers all filing papers to contest.  It seems these farmers are protesting TRS's failure to maintain a adequate level of minimal farm prices by causing chaos in the election in this district.  All of them have paid the deposit to become a candidate which is around $360 each.  So now the voters in Nizamabad  will be confronted with voting machines that will have to support 185 candidates.    If that does not work then the election might have to be conducted using paper ballots.