2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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jaichind
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« Reply #125 on: March 19, 2019, 09:38:05 PM »

NDTV has a 5 part series on LS elections in UP.    They point out after the first 2 parts that

Last few election how the opposition unites counts a lot more for victory



SP and BSP vote base are very loyal vs INC and BJP



2014 UP LS and 2017 UP assembly elections were very similar
 


Then it points out that even if BJP retained their 2014 vote in UP, a SP-BSP alliance will capture more than half of what BJP won in 2014 and if INC comes abroad it gets even worse for BJP



And if you do the same but assuming BJP has 2017 UP assembly vote share it is a bit worse for BJP



I am not sure if NDTV are going to get to it in part 3 4 and 5 but this sort of analysis is problematic.  I agree SP and BSP vote base are loyal and most likely will gel.   On the other hand a good part of the INC vote are Upper Caste vote which would swing to BJP if they allied with SP-BSP who are based on Yadav Dalit and Muslims.    The best way for INC to hurt BJP is a seat by seat approach with INC backing SP-BSP in some in return for SP-BSP backing INC on others and in many seats INC should run a Upper Caste candidate to split the BJP vote.  It seems, BTW, that INC is NOT doing that in a consistent basis so most likely INC running separately will hurt SP-BSP. But that does not mean that INC should form a perfect alliance with SP-BSP which I feel will also shift Upper Caste INC votes to BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #126 on: March 20, 2019, 08:20:06 PM »

BJP CM of Goa Manohar Parrikar passed away after being critically ill for some time.  This comes a a bad time for the BJP in Goa as the current BJP led government is formed by cobbling together various INC splinters/rebels and local BJP sometimes ally and sometimes rival MAG.  With INC splinter GFP already pulling support for the BJP government is pretty much already in minority. 

Now the BJP will have to pick a successor and get a vote of confidence through.  Most likely a series of political and most likely monetary bribes will be needed to get get such a vote through (like getting the lone NCP MLA to go over to the BJP camp.)  One way or another it will look ugly.  But the cost of losing CM position to INC is even worse for the BJP.

New BJP CM installed (who was the old speaker of the Goa assembly.)  The BJP pulled it off by appointed the leader of both MAG and GFP titles of DCM and increased the ministry portfolio of the 3 independents.  This might not be sustainable on the long run but the BJP has to keep this government together until at least the LS election as to not create an image that the BJP is losing ground.
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jaichind
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« Reply #127 on: March 21, 2019, 02:54:31 PM »

Latest alliance news:

1) In Maharashtra it seems SHS splinter NMS has decided not to contest elections but will be "working to get rid of Modi/Shah (Amit Shah who is BJP Prez and key Modi sidekick)"  This must be part of a NCP-NMS understanding so NMS can be backing INC-NCP (to be fair mostly NCP) but INC has plausible  deniability in Northern India  given NMS's position against migrants from UP and Bihar into Maharashtra.

2) In WB the Left Front-INC alliance, even tactical one, has mostly broken down.  With INC and Left Front running candidates in each other's strongholds both will lose seats to BJP.

3) IN J&K INC and JKN formed a tactical alliance in some seats.  Most likely this will ensure that JKN wins the Kashmir seats although in Jammu the BJP is sure to win with or without an alliance between INC and JKN.

4) Even though in most of India the BJP seems to have beaten INC in terms of the alliance game, one area where the BJP was expected to sweep, Northeast India, the entire BJP alliance structure have mostly fallen apart outside Assam.  This is mostly because of the BJP support for the new citizenship bill (which is now mostly on hold)  which would make India open borders for all non-Muslim South Asian.  Northeast India getting non-Muslim migrants and refugees from Bangladesh would bear the brunt of this and have turned BJP allies in Northeast India like NPP against it and are running separately from BJP.  This might throw some sure BJP seats in Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur over to INC.   BJP might lose in Tripura and in Meghalaya it will be a 3 way battle between INC NPP and BJP with NPP most likely coming out ahead.  One way or another the BJP might end up with less seats in Northeast India then what one would have expected a year ago.
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jaichind
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« Reply #128 on: March 21, 2019, 03:16:46 PM »

BJP announced that for the BJP stronghold seat of Gujarat of  Gandhinagar, the BJP candidate will be BJP Prez and Modi's sidekick Amit Shah


As opposed the the current MP and 91 year old long time BJP leader LK Advani who now has been "retired" by BJP/Modi


LK Advani joined BJS which is proto-BJP in the early 1950s when BJS was formed and became President of BJS as early 1973.  LK Advani and BJP ex-PM Vajpayee took turns in the 1980s and 2013 being the face and leader of BJP.  LK Advani took an active role in promoting Modi within the BJP and in 2002 during the Gujarat riots stopped Vajpayee from removing Modi as CM of Gujarat.  That did not stop Modi from usurping  LK Advani  role as the leader of the BJP in 2013.  After that Modi had to put on a show of respecting LK Advani but I guess now Modi felt that LK Advani has outlived his usefulness as a symbol of respecting the BJP old guard.  So now he has been "retired" without even giving LK Advani the chance to announce his retirement on his own. 

Also with this Modi made it clear that Amit Shah will be his political heir and take over the BJP after Modi retires, which I assume will be in 2024 assuming that Modi keeps on being PM after the 2019 LS elections.
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jaichind
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« Reply #129 on: March 21, 2019, 03:38:37 PM »

More NDTV analysis of UP. 

They point out that UP has more than average Dalits and Muslims


That Jatav Dalits which forms about half of all Dalits in UP will be behind SP+BSP (because of BSP)


Muslims mostly vote SP-BSP (mostly because of SP) but INC has a good chunk.


They debunk theories that many including myself that INC running separately helps SP-BSP by splitting the Upper Caste vote from BJP by pointing out that INC only has 12% of the Brahmin vote.


I guess my response is that the Upper Caste support base of INC is very uneven.  In some pockets where INC has local Upper Caste leaders a significant part of the Upper Caste vote is with INC and in other pockets the Upper Caste vote is almost zero for INC.  My point is where INC has strong local Upper Caste leaders that INC run them to split the Upper Caste vote from BJP.  In these seats if INC backs SP-BSP the entire INC Upper Caste vote will go BJP.  I think in pockets where the INC vote base is mostly Muslim then INC should just withdraw and back SP-BSP.   Lets be clear this is NOT what INC is doing on the ground so the BJP for sure will gain from the SP-BSP and INC split.
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jaichind
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« Reply #130 on: March 21, 2019, 07:48:08 PM »

Next round of NDTV UP analysis. 

If points out the key role of swings in UP where if you just add SP-BSP (and I assume RLD) 2014 vote you get SP-BSP 41 seats to BJP+ 37 seats but a 5% swing in either direction will make a large difference.



Same analysis if INC is in the SP-BSP-RLD alliance (which will of course not take place)



It also uses 2018 UP by-elections to show that SP-BSP alliance drove up SP-BSP voters since the alliance means the election is winnable and the higher turnout created a swing



I generally disagree with their last point.  What their analysis is missing is the swing is relative to 2014 LS elections where in the first two by-elections very popular BJP incumbents were running.  The by-election basically meant that these popular incumbents were not running.  A better way to measure swing is to compute the the 2017 assembly segment results and then create a baseline.  If you do that you get

Phulpur
2017 assembly segment implied baseline
BJP           43.4%
SP            46.2%
INC            5.8%

2018 by-election result
SP            47.1%  (backed by BSP)
BJP           39.0%
SP rebel     6.6%
INC            2.7% (Upper caste)

Here the SP rebel ate into both the SP-BSP vote as well as the BJP vote.  But what is key here is the INC candidate is Upper caste.  So the INC Muslim vote went over to SP but the INC Upper Caste vote stayed and did not go over to BJP.    The main point here is there was no large "swing" toward SP relative to 2017 assembly results unlike what is claimed by NDTV using 2014 results as the baseline.

We can do the same for
Gorakhpur
2017 assembly segment implied baseline
BJP           43.2%
SP            47.8%
INC            5.5%

2018 by-election
SP            49.3% (backed by BSP)
BJP           47.0%
INC            2.0% (Muslim)

Here by INC running a Muslim candidate most of the INC Upper caste vote went over to BJP and made the race closer than the 2017 assembly election vote implied.  Again unlike what NDTV claims there was no large swing toward SP if you use 2017 assembly results as baseline.

Then come
Kairana
2017 assembly segment implied baseline support by party
BJP     38.2%
BSP    18.5%
SP      23.2%
INC     10.9%
RLD      7.6%

which means 2017 assembly implied baseline should be
RLD    60.2 
BJP     38.2

2018 by-election
RLD   51.5%  (backed in SP-BSP-INC-MD-PECP) (Muslim)
BJP    46.7%

Here if you use the 2017 assembly baseline there was a strong swing against RLD.  There are two reasons.  First of course is the fact that the RLD candidate is Muslim which must have driven away some Hindu (especially Jat) voters.  Also the daughter of the deceased BJP MP was running on the BJP ticket and the sympathy factor must have played a role in this swing.  The key point here is there was no swing toward RLD as NDTV claims if you use 2017 assembly election  result as the baseline.  In fact there was a strong swing away from RLD.
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jaichind
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« Reply #131 on: March 22, 2019, 01:02:54 PM »

In Bihar RJD-INC finally came out with an alliance announcement.  The seat breakdown will be

RJD      19 (LJD leader Sharad Yadav will run on RJD ticket)
INC       9
RLSP     5
HAM      3
VIP       3
CPI(ML) 1 (RJD gave one seat out of its quota of 20 to CPI(ML))

So in the end CPI and CPM got nothing. LJD got only 1 seat which makes sense.  It seems RJD really doubled down on RLSP HAM and VIP ability to capture votes from Kushwaha, Mahadalit and Nishad communities by giving them seats that seems larger than they deserved.
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jaichind
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« Reply #132 on: March 22, 2019, 01:18:52 PM »

I went back and looked at election results by LS seat since 1991 in order to identify bellwether districts.  The basic idea is that in 1991 INC was the largest party, 1996 BJP, 1998 BJP 1999 BJP 2004 INC 2009 INC and 2014 BJP.  I looked for seats where that pattern was followed for for INC and allies and BJP and allies.

Based on that criteria I found 3 bellwethers districts.

Valsad (Gujarat)
Faridabad(Haryana)
Udhampur(Jammu of J&K)

All of them are in the Hindi belt in the North were it has traditionally been BJP vs INC.  If you look at these 3 districts in light of polling in these states it seems pretty clear that in 2019 BJP should win all of them.  This make sense as it is clear that BJP will emerge as the largest party.  Put it another way, the only way the BJP is not the largest party is if INC makes strong gains against BJP in the Hindi North which is very unlikely.

Of these 3 Valsad (Gujarat) most likely comes closest to matching national vote share so this is the seat one should focus on to see if INC can make gains nationally.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #133 on: March 25, 2019, 07:38:58 AM »

Latest updates

1) In  Bihar even though CPIML) was assigned 1 seat in the RJD-INC alliance it was not deemed enough so it seems CPIML)  will opt out of the alliance and run separately as allies of CPM-CPI.  There will be some impact as this would work to reduce the RJD-INC seat count in an RJD-INC wave election.  Being the election most likely will be a NDA-UPA split of around 30-10 to 25-15 this would not make that big of a difference.

2) Delhi it seems Rahul Gandhi will make a call today on if INC should go with an alliance AAP.  At this stage the delay and infighting over this possible has been so great I doubt it would even work on the ground if it gets cemented. 

3) In Karnataka JD(S) had to give back 1 seat (Bangalore North) back to INC due to lack of candidates.  The INC-JD(S) alliance produced a 20-8 split in seats.  The main problem for JD(S) is that it is only viable in around 6 seats with INC being their main rival in most of them.  So where the two parties had overlap they were shared equally.   But to make sure JD(S) had its quota of 8 seats then 5 of them had to be places where JD(S) was weak.  JD(S) had the them rush to import local INC kingpins to run for JD(S).  For Bangalore North which is a BJP-INC marginal the plan was for JD(S) patriarch and ex-PM Deve Gowda to run but he decided to run in a JD(S) stronghold (this bodes ill for the INC-JD(S) alliance given Deve Gowda's choice) which left this seat without a viable JD(S) candidate which then had to to be handed back to INC.

4) In Jharkhand it seems RJD is not happy with the INC 7 JMM 4 JVM 2 RJD split and is threatening to run separately.  Not sure if they will follow through as RJD is pretty weak these days in Jharkhand.

5) In Telangana TDP has decided not to run and back INC given that pretty much most of its leadership have defected to TRS.  Does not matter that much as TRS will sweep the state.  Most likely it will be TRS 14 AIMIM 1 BJP 1 INC 1 with a good chance the BJP and INC seat will be eaten up by TRS.

6) In AP it seems that JSP which is the successor party to PRP and appeals to the Kapu community is spending all its time to attack YSRCP as opposed to the ruling TDP.  There are talks that the JSP effort is partly backed by TDP to split the opposition vote.  Just like there were talks back in 2009 that PRP was partly support by INC to split the opposition vote from TDP.  The fact that PRP merged into INC after the 2009 elections seems to add to that theory.  JSP was formed by film star Pawan Kalyan who is the brother of film star Chiranjeevi who founded PRP.  JSP backed TDP-BJP in 2014 but this time is running in alliance with BSP and CPI-CPM.  I doubt JSP will win any seats but how they split the vote will determine if this election is an YSRCP victory or YSRCP landslide.

7) In Maharashtra the INC-NCP alliance was announce with the support of BVA and SWP.  PWPI and JD(S) will also back the alliance even though they will not get any seats.  Overall the alliance seems to be in bad shape with loads of infighting with significant number of defections to BJP-SHS.  The INC-NCP hope has to be that NMS support and BJP-SHS hostility at the ground level could somehow prevent another BJP-SHS landslide.  I actually think these factors will help to do so despite appearances that INC-NCP are in bad shape.
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jaichind
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« Reply #134 on: March 25, 2019, 07:45:31 AM »

Rahul Gandhi promises minimum income of around $170 per family if INC is elected to power.  Main problem here is that would mean around 20% of the families in India would be eligible so something like this will blow up the budget.    Also there are large number of families that have income above that in the informal sector so I am not sure how it is going to work.  Of course since there is pretty much no chance of INC coming to power so there is no reason why Rahul Gandhi cannot promise this, and a pony while we are at it, for each Indian family. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #135 on: March 25, 2019, 11:36:23 AM »

So in the end despite talks in UP Bihar WB Jharkhand TN Maharashtra Telengana  the only place UPA and Left parties formed an alliance was in TN.  Both INC and Left parties (CPI CPM) have an exaggerated view of their strength mostly based on past strong performances that in many cases were from decades ago.  To some extent the INC approach is rational in the sense that if INC walks away this LS election with 100+ seats it can live to fight another day in 2024.  The Left parties are in terminal crisis.  They have been beaten to a weak third place in WB by the BJP, ousted by the BJP from its stronghold of Tripura and losing ground to the BJP Kerala at a rapid pace where the state will soon see the coming of a 3 party system (INC+, Left Front, and BJP+).  Elsewhere the Left parties are not anywhere close to being to win LS seats on their own.   

Being reduced to low single digit in terms of seats (most likely zero everywhere expect for ~3 in TN and ~3 in Kerala) could mean that the Left parties will become irrelevant at the national level and only some factor at the state level in Kerala and Tripura.  I have no idea why the Left Parties are not willing to accept some crumbs from the UPA just to survive because the alternative is extinction.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #136 on: March 26, 2019, 07:09:50 AM »

Latest CVoter poll on LS elections which has it at

          Seat                  Vote Share
NDA    261(BJP 214)       42.0%
UPA    143(INC 91)         30.4%



This poll has BJP sweeping the Hindi North but getting hammered in UP by SP-BSP and in Punjab by INC.  It also has BJP defeating BJD in Orissa and a shock TDP victory over YSRCP in AP (I guess YSP will split the anti-TDP vote).  It also seems that in Maharashtra the NDA victory in terms of seats is not as large as one would expect.

BJP at 214 should mean that Modi makes it as PM but I am sure if I were him I prefer something over 220.  INC at 91 is not quite enough for Rahul Gandhi to claim that INC is on its way back to recovery from the 2014 elections.  I am sure he want it to be above 100.

I am working on my own bottoms up seat by seat projection which currently comes out pretty close to this.  My projection and this poll share the attribute of a large NDA vote ahead but not such a massive seat lead as one would expect from other polls.   There are still some alliances not worked out yet (AAP and INC in Delhi, AAP and JJP in Haryana, JSP and BSP alliance Telengana etc etc) and once they are locked up I can finish my model and publish what I have on a state by state level.  At a high level right now it has

          Seat                  Vote Share
NDA    247(BJP 205)       39.5%
UPA    155(INC 102)       30.5%

Which seems very similar to this poll although there are significant differences at the state level.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #137 on: March 26, 2019, 12:49:11 PM »

I do not get the UP figures. They seem all the same IF there is and is not an SP+BSP alliance.
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jaichind
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« Reply #138 on: March 26, 2019, 01:30:47 PM »

I do not get the UP figures. They seem all the same IF there is and is not an SP+BSP alliance.

You are giving this poll too much credit in terms of professionalism.  These types of mistakes (SP and BSP vote share when contesting separately add up exactly to the SP-BSP vote share in alliance (what about RLD?) ) are fairly typical of mistake in polls in India.

While we are on the topic, other mistakes in the poll are

Jharkhand: JVM is part of UPA alliance so why are they being listed separately; also the vote share of Others beyond UPA NDA and JVM is 0% Huh
WB: CPM is part of Left Front so is the CPM vote share for CPM only or Left Front
Assam: not necessary a mistake but AIUDF at 3.4% is absurd.  Even though they are contesting 3 out of 14 seats (tastily backing INC in the rest) given how strong they are in Lower Assam they should be at least 7%-8% if not low double digits just based on those 3 seats.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #139 on: March 26, 2019, 02:28:06 PM »

I have tried to find the figures for the seats in every state. Have you got it?
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jaichind
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« Reply #140 on: March 26, 2019, 04:23:52 PM »

I have tried to find the figures for the seats in every state. Have you got it?

ECI has reports of every election (assembly as well).  This is the 2014 LS election one

https://eci.gov.in/files/file/2785-constituency-wise-detailed-result/


This is a link of a table of all reports of LS and assembly elections
https://eci.gov.in/statistical-report/statistical-reports/
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Continential
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« Reply #141 on: March 26, 2019, 05:53:56 PM »

Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?
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jaichind
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« Reply #142 on: March 26, 2019, 08:08:29 PM »

Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

I actually think Rahul Gandhi has grown a lot as a candidate since 2014 and is now fairly effective on the stump and on social media.  His main weakness is that he is an ineffective leader.  In short he does not have a killer instinct with a clear purpose.  Whatever you can say about Modi-Shah combine, but their focus on victory conveys a clear purpose and vision.  Rahul Gandhi projects an image of indecisiveness and focused on backing INC sycophants at the state level to the point of damaging INC election potential in key states.  Not being able to make a call on the INC-APP alliance in Delhi is another example of this.

Another famous story about Rahul Gandhi which I think is mostly true given how many times it was told by several source has to how the INC lost control of the Northeast.  In 2014 LS elections BJP surged in Assam but INC still held the upper hand in the rest of the Northeast.  One up and coming INC superstar in Assam was Himanta Biswa Sarma


To get ready for the tough battle in the 2016 Assam assembly election and other Northeastern states, there was a key meeting in 2015 where Himanta Biswa Sarma presented to Rahul Gandhi his proposed INC strategy to hold on the the Northeast.  Based on various sources Rahul Gandi was not paying attention in the meeting and spent the entire meeting feeding his dog. 

After this Himanta Biswa Sarma defected to the BJP and was put in charge of the BJP operation to takeover the Northeast.   In the 2016-2018 pretty much all Northeast state fell to BJP and allies which was largely in part due to the organizational skills of Himanta Biswa Sarma.  To be fair part of the reason for his defection has to be signs that the BJP is in the ascendancy after the 2014 LS election and the key role of federal subsidies in the Northeast.  But Rahul Gandhi lack of the killer instinct clearly play a party.   
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« Reply #143 on: March 27, 2019, 02:12:09 AM »

I have tried to find the figures for the seats in every state. Have you got it?

ECI has reports of every election (assembly as well).  This is the 2014 LS election one

https://eci.gov.in/files/file/2785-constituency-wise-detailed-result/


This is a link of a table of all reports of LS and assembly elections
https://eci.gov.in/statistical-report/statistical-reports/

I medan for the läst. C voter pill.
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jaichind
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« Reply #144 on: March 27, 2019, 06:58:09 AM »

I medan for the läst. C voter pill.

I can only find this

NDA seats by state


UPA seats by state


Some thoughts on this poll.  I would argue this poll is sort of negative for BJP.  Not because of the absolute seat count has NDA below majority but it is a slight decline of 3 seats for NDA relative to a similar Cvoter poil in early March.

Here is my rule of thumb.  If a state in question had an assembly election within the year (MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Karnataka) most polls tend to underestimate the ruling party there.  If the state in question had an assembly election within 2 years (Gujarat, UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand) then polls tend to be par.  If the state had assembly elections more than 2 years ago then polls tend to overestimate the incumbent party at the state level due to anti-incumbency.

If so then all things equal most polls should be overestimating BJP.  The only caveat would be if there is some sort of national wave in favor of one side (usually the incumbent) like 1971 1984 1999 and 2014.  But if that were the case then we should find these national polls over time to move further and further in the NDA direction.  We need more data as other polls comes in but the first set of polls done during the campaign period seems to indicate a waveless election which would be bad for BJP in the sense that they will under-perform polls.  One possible theory would be that this election will see a partial wave for Modi just in the Hindi North which is just enough to push them past INC in key BJP-INC swing states like MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.
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jaichind
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« Reply #145 on: March 27, 2019, 07:59:24 AM »

Looks like there are hectic behind the scenes talks between INC and AAP for an alliance in Delhi.  Head of Delhi INC and former CM Sheila Diksh**t is opposed to a deal (mostly due to animosity between her and AAP CM Arvind Kejriwal who ran against her in 2013 and defeated her in her district) but she seems to have accepted that Rahul Gandhi is keen as is a majority of the Delhi INC grass roots.

The INC offer of deal would be AAP 3 INC 3 and 1 independent backed by both.  AAP seems to be saying yes to this BUT that must be matched with an INC-AAP alliance in both Punjab and Haryana where AAP gets 2 seats each.  In Haryana APP is pushing for an 3 way alliance of INC-JJP-AAP where JJP seems to be rejecting.  In Punjab the INC CM Amarinder Singh already said there is no way INC can form an alliance with AAP and the Haryana INC does not seem keen to allowing AAP into an alliance and have AAP poach its vote base.  AAP's position seems to be that if the alliance is limited to only Delhi then it will have to be AAP 5 INC 2 which INC outright rejects as the support base INC now has (which overlaps with AAP) is now at rough parity.

I think at this stage INC is better off not getting an alliance.  I know there are polls that show that a AAP-INC alliance will win 6-7 seats where as separately BJP will win all 7.  I think what INC has to consider is the buildup of anti-incumbency toward the AAP and part of the INC vote base are now anti-AAP.  An AAP-INC alliance will drive these voters over to BJP.  With AAP openly attacking INC last few weeks the environment in Delhi poisoned enough that I am not sure there is time to make the AAP-INC alliance gel.  If the alliance was formed back in Jan or Feb that would be a different story.  I suspect even if an alliance is formed  the AAP-INC bloc would be lucky to win 2-3 seats.  Overall I think INC at this stage is better off just fighting by itself and use this election to re-take the anti-BJP vote from AAP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #146 on: March 27, 2019, 08:56:09 PM »

A couple of funny/interesting stories from AP

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lok-sabha-elections-2019-in-andhra-pradeshs-araku-constituency-congress-pits-daughter-against-father-2012164

Long time INC leader Kishore Chandra Deo recently quit the INC to run for the TDP in the fairly tribal Araku seat which he won in 2009 and lost by a large margin in 2014 to YSRCP


What the INC did was to instead nominate  Kishore Chandra Deo's daugher Shruti Devi


So this race will witness a father vs daughter battle.


Another funny story is

https://english.sakshi.com/andhrapradesh-politics/2019/03/26/tdps-cheap-gimmick-ka-paul-fields-ysrcp-namesakes-to-confuse-voters

One of the many new parties to run this year in AP is the little known Praja Shanti Party.  What is interesting is the party symbol


Looks a like the YSRCP party symbol


Then if you look at the candidates that Praja Shanti Party nominates, their names are identical to the name of the YSRCP candidate in the said district (be it LS seat or assembly seat).  In seems by inference that this is dummy party set up by TDP to split the YSRCP vote.



This trick actually took place in 2014.  In Chhattisgarh  former INC Chhattisgarh CM Ajit Jogi (who have since split from INC and formed the JCC with an alliance with BSP) was running as the INC candidate against BJP's Chandu Lal Sahu.  It seems Ajit Jogi found a dozen namesakes of  Chandu Lal Sahu to run and split his vote and nearly won.  Note how many "Chandu Lal Sahu" ran in this district.
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« Reply #147 on: March 28, 2019, 01:51:50 AM »

Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein
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Continential
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« Reply #148 on: March 28, 2019, 07:17:34 AM »

Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein
LOL, my parents say that he is
Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

I actually think Rahul Gandhi has grown a lot as a candidate since 2014 and is now fairly effective on the stump and on social media.  His main weakness is that he is an ineffective leader.  In short he does not have a killer instinct with a clear purpose.  Whatever you can say about Modi-Shah combine, but their focus on victory conveys a clear purpose and vision.  Rahul Gandhi projects an image of indecisiveness and focused on backing INC sycophants at the state level to the point of damaging INC election potential in key states.  Not being able to make a call on the INC-APP alliance in Delhi is another example of this.

Another famous story about Rahul Gandhi which I think is mostly true given how many times it was told by several source has to how the INC lost control of the Northeast.  In 2014 LS elections BJP surged in Assam but INC still held the upper hand in the rest of the Northeast.  One up and coming INC superstar in Assam was Himanta Biswa Sarma


To get ready for the tough battle in the 2016 Assam assembly election and other Northeastern states, there was a key meeting in 2015 where Himanta Biswa Sarma presented to Rahul Gandhi his proposed INC strategy to hold on the the Northeast.  Based on various sources Rahul Gandi was not paying attention in the meeting and spent the entire meeting feeding his dog. 

After this Himanta Biswa Sarma defected to the BJP and was put in charge of the BJP operation to takeover the Northeast.   In the 2016-2018 pretty much all Northeast state fell to BJP and allies which was largely in part due to the organizational skills of Himanta Biswa Sarma.  To be fair part of the reason for his defection has to be signs that the BJP is in the ascendancy after the 2014 LS election and the key role of federal subsidies in the Northeast.  But Rahul Gandhi lack of the killer instinct clearly play a party.   
Dumb i***t
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jaichind
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« Reply #149 on: March 28, 2019, 12:46:53 PM »

TRS's leader KCR claims that BJP will not cross 150 seats and INC will not cross 100 seats.

https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/bjp-will-not-win-more-than-150-lok-sabha-seats-congress-not-more-than-100-ktr-1553771784749.html

He is trying to create a narrative that a non-BJP non-INC government is possible.   Math shows that it is not.

Using my current model, there are 193 seats where BJP and INC occupy first and second place.  There is another 181 seats where BJP is first or second but the other party is not INC.   There are 69 seats where INC is first or second but the other party is not BJP.   For KCR's claims to be true (BJP plus INC is at 250 seats or less) out of the 250 seats where BJP or INC is in the running but not against each other (181+69) BJP or INC has to win only 57 out of them or around 20% since BJP plus INC will win 193 seats for sure between them.  A strike rate of 20% when either BJP or INC is in the running versus another non-BJP non-INC is very unlikely.  A strike rate of 50% would put BJP plus INC at 318 which I think is more where the election will come down to. 

For KCR's vision of a majority that excludes BJP and INC a huge black swan event must take place.
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