2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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jaichind
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« Reply #100 on: March 11, 2019, 09:23:19 AM »

Zee 24 Taas poll

             Seats
NDA        264
UPA         165
Others     114


Some state details

Uttar Pradesh: 80 seats
BJP - 50
INC - 5
SP-BSP - 25


Bihar: 40 seats
NDA - 28
UPA - 10
Others - 2


Jharkhand: 14 seats
NDA - 7
UPA - 7

 
Chhattisgarh: 11 seats
BJP - 4
INC - 7


Punjab: 13 seats
NDA - 3 (SAD -2 BJP -1)
INC - 10


Haryana: 10 seats
BJP - 6
INC - 3
Others - 1 (I assume INLD)

 
Gujarat: 26 seats
BJP - 24
INC - 2

 
Maharashtra: 48 seats
NDA - 30  (BJP 16 SHS 14)
UPA - 17 (INC 7 NCP 10)
Others - 1

 
Karnataka: 28 seats
BJP - 8
UPA - 20


Jammu and Kashmir: 6 seats
BJP - 3
UPA - 2 (INC 0 JKN -2)
PDP - 1
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jaichind
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« Reply #101 on: March 11, 2019, 06:24:35 PM »

News nation poll

          Seats  Vote share
NDA      270      34%
UPA      134      28%
Others  139      29%



State level results

TN



Karnataka



Maharastra



Chhattisgarh



Bihar



WB



Odisha



Gujarat



Jharkhand



MP



J&K
The BJP is expected to win 3 of the 6 seats. Congress, NC and PDP may win one seat each.


Assam
BJP - 7 seats, Congress - 4 seats, AIUDF - 2 seats


UP
BJP may win 35 seats, SP-BSP-RLD may win 43 seats.  I guess INC 2


Uttarakhand:
BJP - 4 seats, Congress - 1 seat


Haryana:
BJP - 6 seats, Congress - 2 seats, INLD - 1 seat, JJP - 1 seat (INLD splinter)


HP:
BJP - 4 seats, Congress - 0 seats


Delhi:
BJP - 4 seats, AAP - 3 seats
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jaichind
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« Reply #102 on: March 11, 2019, 06:27:14 PM »

In seems in WB INC and Left front are close to a full alliance.  It is said INC will contest 17 seats and Left front 25 seats.  It seems both INC and Left Front are concerned that if there is no Left Front-INC alliance then anti-AITC Left Front voters might vote BJP.
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« Reply #103 on: March 11, 2019, 07:19:28 PM »

How many seats does the NDA have to win to be certain that they will form the next government? A majority? Or how many below the magic 272?

Also, how many for Modi to stay as PM? (as opposed to having a different BJP Prime Minister)
And how many for Gandhi to be the likely next PM?
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jaichind
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« Reply #104 on: March 11, 2019, 09:27:49 PM »

How many seats does the NDA have to win to be certain that they will form the next government? A majority? Or how many below the magic 272?

Also, how many for Modi to stay as PM? (as opposed to having a different BJP Prime Minister)
And how many for Gandhi to be the likely next PM?

I would say if BJP (not NDA) is at 220 or above then PM is for sure Modi.  If BJP is between 200 and 220 it is most likely Modi but could end up being BJP's Nitin Gadkari.  If BJP is between 180 and 200 then most likely it will be Nitin Gadkari but could still be Modi.  If BJP is below 180 then it would be Nitin Gadkari or someone like NCP leader Sharad Pawar as a leader of some sort of Grand Alliance government.

If INC gets above 150 (which means BJP is most likely at most 150 or a bit more) I can see INC forming the government but most likely not Rahul Gandhi as I suspect he could not rally support of parties like SP or BSP to back him.  It might even end up being Sonia Gandhi or again NCP leader Sharad Pawar.  INC getting above 150 this election is far fetched so this is a fairly unlikely scenario.
 Frankly I do not even think Rahul Gandhi is planning to fight to become PM in 2019.  His goal should always be 2024.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #105 on: March 11, 2019, 09:48:35 PM »

India Today Axis poll on preferred PM is interesting.

They have it at (change from Jan)
Modi              52(+4)
Rahul Gandhi  33(-2)

Usually these polls overestimate the sitting PM and Rahul Gandhi at 33 is actually pretty good at the start of a campaign.   The Jan 2019 numbers were just after the INC victory in late 2018 assembly elections which was an artificial high number for Rahul Gandhi anyway.   

The demographic breakdown and compared to a Jan 2019 poll are interesting
 
By community
                      Modi          Rahul Gandhi
Upper Caste      72(+15)         15(-11)
OBC                 67(+12)          20(-7)
Tribals              44(-5)             40(+8)
Dalits               41(-6)             44(+10)
Muslims            18(+1)            61(+4)

So the conflict with Pakistan has consolidated Hindu Upper Caste and OBC behind Modi which Rahul Gandhi is gaining ground with Dalits and Tribals.  This would be relatively good news for BJP in places like MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, HP, and Uttarakhand, mixed news in places like UP, Bihar, Haryana, WB and bad news for BJP in places like Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. 


By region it is
                    Modi          Rahul Gandhi
North            54(+5)            31(-1)
South           38(+3)            45(-1)
West             56(+3)            29(-1)
East              57(+3)            27(-2)


By gender it is
                   Modi          Rahul Gandhi
Male             53(+6)            32(-5)
Female         51(+2)             35(+1)


By urban/rural it is
                  Modi          Rahul Gandhi
Urban          50(+4)             31(-2)
Rural           49(+3)             35(-1)

So Modi starts the campaign consolidating the urban male Upper Caste voter with Rahul making gains with Tribals and Dalits.  Bad news for INC is that BJP vs INC battleground states like MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, HP, and Uttarakhand are exactly the states that Modi has done well in the past and seems to start the election with a large lead which would give again the BJP an outsized seat share relative to vote share.
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jaichind
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« Reply #106 on: March 13, 2019, 05:26:37 AM »

In Assam BJP and AGP renews alliance now that Citizenship bill is put on hold.  AGP has no real choice since if AGP ran separately it would have no chance to wins seats.

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/agp-bjp-join-hands-two-months-after-separation-722964.html
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jaichind
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« Reply #107 on: March 13, 2019, 12:01:36 PM »

In TN INC splinter TMC also joins AIADMK-BJP alliance.   On the whole AIADMK have been giving out a large number of seats in its bid to form a grand alliance.  I am not sure if that is a good idea.  By giving out more seats than "market value" AIADMK can build a large coalition but sends a signal that AIADMK is weak and in decline.  To some extent DMK has a similar problem as it gave out 2 seats to CPI and CPM which is more than they are worth.  But on the whole the problem is worse on the AIADMK side.

Articles like

"When Amma is not there Modi is our daddy, India's daddy: AIADMK minister"

https://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/when-amma-is-not-there-modi-is-our-daddy-india-s-daddy-aiadmk-minister-119031100004_1.html

Where an AIADMK leader calls Modi "Daddy" projects weakness and allows the DMK to attack the AIADMK as a puppet of BJP and provoke the specter of Hindi chauvinism which TN is fairly sensitive to.
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jaichind
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« Reply #108 on: March 13, 2019, 12:47:29 PM »

VPA poll which tends to have a pro-BJP bias but recently came out with some poor poll results for NDA came out with a poll which puts NDA at above majority.

             Seats    Vote share
NDA        291         41%
UPA        120         33%
Others     132         26%




By region
                               Seats                                           Vote share
                    NDA        UPA      Others     Total         NDA        UPA      Others
Northeast        17           4            4           25
East                69          13          36        118          43%        29%       28%
South              31          48          51        130         27%        40%       33%
West               81          23           0         104          49%        41%      10%
North              93          32          41        166          48%        31%       21%

Looking at seat count we can derive the regions to be

Northeast - Assam, Arunachal P, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Meghalaya, Sikkim
East - Bihar, Jharkhand, WB, Orissa, A&N
South - Karnataka, AP, Telangana, TN, Kerala, Pondicherry
West - Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, D&N H, D&D, Lakshadweep
North - J&K, HP, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Uttarakhand, UP, MP, Chhattisgarh, Chandigarh

Some state level data

Bihar
             Seat        Vote share
NDA        34              49%  (BJP 16 JD(U) 14 LJP 4)
UPA          6              38%  (RJD 4 INC 2)
Others                      13%


Jammu only - BJP 58% INC 32% Other 10% -> BJP wins the 2 seats with ease in Jammu


MP
            Seat        Vote share
BJP        22              49%
INC         7              42%
BSP                          5%


Chhattisgarh
              Seat        Vote share
INC          9              45%
BJP           2             38%
Others                     17%


Punjab
             Seats
INC          7
NDA         5   (SAD 4 BJP 1)
AAP          1


Haryana
             Seats    Vote share
BJP           9           46%
INC           0           19%
JJP            1           22%
Others                    13%


Gujarat
             Seats    Vote share
BJP          24           53%
INC           2           40%
Others                     7%


Rajasthan
             Seats
BJP         20
INC          5


Karnataka
             Seats        Vote share
BJP         15                 46%
UPA        13                 48%  (INC 10 JD(S) 3)


UP
             Seats         Vote share
SP-BSP    38                40.7%  (BJP 37 AD 1)
NDA        36                42.4%  (SP 21 BSP 15 RLD 2)
UPA          5                 11.0% (INC 5)
PSP(L)      1
Others                           5.9%


TN
             Seats         Vote share
UPA          18               38% (DMK 14 INC 2 VCK 2)
NDA          15               36% (AIADMK 12 PMK 2 BJP 1)
AMMK         6               20%
NMN                             2%
NTK                              2%

So we can infer some results in other large states.  This implies that in Jharkhand, WB, Orissa, A&N NDA would win 35 seats which would imply very strong BJP finishes in all of them.

Pretty much this poll paints a story of a Modi surge in the Hindi belt just large enough to win most of the seats despite a vote share lead that is not that massive while in TN an UPA sweep was averted by AMMK winning a large part of the anti-BJP vote and produced a larger than expected seat haul for NDA.
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jaichind
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« Reply #109 on: March 13, 2019, 02:33:12 PM »

Mint.com does their own scenario analysis of LS elections.

First they assume vote share in 2014 are unchanged but take into account changes in alliance.  This gives NDA 319 seats as NDA lost TDP as an ally in AP and Telenaga but gained AIADMK as an ally in TN  and, AJSU in Jharkhand, and  AGP/BPF as an ally in Assam as well as swapping RLSP for JD(U) in Bihar.
Thinking about this list despite all the talk about Modi driving away allies this record since 2014 is not bad for BJP/Modi.




The second scenario which is more realistic takes into account that the 2014 Modi wave was based on anti-incumbency.  Using recent assembly election results and taking into account of anti-incumbency for states that had assembly results as while ago generates a state-centric projection which has NDA as 250 seats but UPA only at 107 seats.
 


The third scenario builds on the second scenario by assuming another Modi wave which generates another significant majority for NDA with BJP at 240 seats.



The fourth scenario takes the second scenario and assumes Rahul Gandhi/INC catches fire by pinning rural distress and slow job growth on Modi/BJP.    This creates a virtual tie between NDA(187 seats) and UPA(184 seats) with BJP (142 seats) and INC (139 seats) also in a virtual tie.


Most polls seem to show the race somewhere between the second and third scenario.  The best Rahul Gandhi and INC can hope for now is a reversion of race to a pre-Pakistan conflict stage which would be something like a bit better than second scenario which is achieved by various alliances breakthroughs in UP, Bihar and WB.
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jaichind
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« Reply #110 on: March 13, 2019, 09:09:09 PM »

In Bihar there is still a deadlock between RJD and INC on seat sharing.  INC insist on 15 seats while RJD is proposing RJD 20 INC 11 RLSP 3 HAM 2 VIP 2 CPI 1 CPI(ML) 1 and LJD run on the RJD symbol.  INC position seems strange given the history of RJD-INC alliances.  Historically the alliance of RJD-INC in Bihar were

1999 LS: RJD 32 INC 5 RJD backed independent 1
2004 LS: RJD 26 LJP 8 INC 4 NCP 1 CPM 1
2009 LS: RJD and INC ran separately
2014 LS: RJD 27 INC 12 NCP 1

NCP in Bihar have since mostly merged into INC.  Still unlike 2014 RJD-INC now have to accommodate RLSP HAM VIP CPI CPM CPM(ML).  INC's position seems to be that RJD has to accommodate these new allies and if anything the INC quota should go up relative to 2014's 13 (INC 12 NCP 1).  Granted with Lalu Yadav in jail the RJD strength has weakened but under the circumstances INC at 11 seats seems reasonable.

The main reason for INC's position seems to be a bunch of BJP and JD(U) Upper Caste rebels want to join INC to run and INC could not accommodate all these rebels and make sure its main Bihar Kingpins also get to run.  I suspect INC will have to backdown as the premise of these BJP and JD(U) MP (or ex-MP) defections to INC are premised on INC being part of the RJD alliance which can marry the RJD Yadav-Muslim vote base to their Upper caste vote based to defeat BJP-JD(U)-LJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #111 on: March 14, 2019, 06:18:51 PM »

In Bihar, it seems the RJD-INC alliance have reached at deal.  It will be RJD 20 INC 11 RLSP 3 HAM 2 LJD 1 VIP 1 CPI 1 CPI(ML) 1.  Getting CPI(ML) is quite a coup since the Maoist CPI(ML) have a fairly large base in central Bihar.  They seem to want to hold on announcing the exact candidates and seats since they want to see what BJP-JD(U)-LJP comes up with in terms candidates, and from which community to be exact.

In Karnataka INC reached a deal with JD(S) to contest together INC 20 JD(S) 8. I suspect after this election the BJP will overtake INC as the largest party in Karnataka since anti-JD(S) elements in INC will go over to BJP as will anti-INC elements in JD(S).  Still on the short term this will help INC-JD(S) gain a few extra seats.

In Delhi it seems Rahul Gandhi is asking INC poll workers to vote online to indicate they they are for forming an alliance with AAP.  I suspect this is too late as AAP has already announced their candidates.  Even if INC would want to make a deal with AAP, AAP will counter demand that INC also form an alliance with AAP in Haryana which I am sure is dead on arrival for the Haryana INC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #112 on: March 14, 2019, 08:16:08 PM »

Now that election season has started all sort if silly stuff are taking place.

In Karnataka, ECI officials made astrologers cover up their advertisement posters


Since the hand symbol are often used as the symbol of astrologers


The ECI say that the hand symbol is also the election symbol of INC so a poster so an astrologers advertisement poster could be interpreted as an endorsement of INC



In AP, ECI officials went into all government buildings to remove pictures of AP CM Naidu saying that Naidu's role as the leader of TDP conflicts with the neutrality of the government during elections.  TDP struck back by going to ECI offices demanding that all electric fans be removed from AP government buildings since an electric fan is the election symbol of TDP rival YSRCP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #113 on: March 16, 2019, 05:19:05 AM »

Political consultancy firm Political Edge  did a poll of Gujarat which is quite out of sync with other media polls.  It has it at

            Seats     Vote share
BJP         16            50%
INC         10            43%

Which is similar to the 2017 Gujarat assembly election implied results
           
            Seats     Vote share
BJP         19            50%
INC+        7            43%

The poll seem to indicate a swing toward INC in tribal areas in the North as well as in the Southern Saurashtra area where  Hardik Patel joining INC seems to have also generated a swing. The rest of Gujarat saw a swing away from INC but the net effect is help INC get ahead in some marginal seats.

This poll seems to indicate a lack of a Modi wave which could be problematic for BJP if true.
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jaichind
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« Reply #114 on: March 16, 2019, 05:33:07 AM »
« Edited: March 16, 2019, 07:30:43 AM by jaichind »

So far the battle of defections of key politician assets (MPs MLAs ex-MPs ex-MLA and children of said key politicians)  is clearly in the favor of BJP but INC scored a few more wins recently.  

1) In places like Gujarat Haryana Maharashtra and Karnataka there has been a stream of INC->BJP defections.  In Karnataka and Maharashtra it has to do with INC-JD(S) and INC-NCP alliances although NCP seems to be holding together and there are signs that BJP-SHS alliance is provoking some possible SHS defections.
2) In AP the stream of defections seems to be INC -> TDP or YSRCP and TDP->YRSCP.  
3) In WB both the INC and to some extent AITC there has been defections to the BJP.
4) In UP there have been defections of Dalit BJP politicians to INC or SP-BSP but a somewhat large number of SP-BSP defections to BJP and INC.  Most of this is due to SP-BSP alliance.
5) In Bihar the defection game seems to be benefiting INC with some key BJP and JD(U) rebels going over to INC.
6) In Odisha there has been INC defections to both BJP and BJD while BJP has a small edge over BJD in the defection game.
7) In Uttarakhand and Assam the defection game has been fairly even between INC and BJP.
8 ) In Telangana some TDP leaders are defecting to INC but there is a large surge of INC to TRS defections.

The main takeaway from the defection game is that BJP seems to have a small momentum edge over INC, YSRCP seems poised to sweep AP, TRS seems poised to sweep Telangana, RJD-INC might do better than expected in Bihar despite polls showing a BJP-JD(U)-LJP sweep, INC out of the game in Odisha, BJP most likely fight INC-JD(S) to a draw in Karnataka, and that in Northern India the Modi wave in the Hindi heartland seems to be intact.
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jaichind
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« Reply #115 on: March 17, 2019, 04:19:44 PM »

BJP CM of Goa Manohar Parrikar passed away after being critically ill for some time.  This comes a a bad time for the BJP in Goa as the current BJP led government is formed by cobbling together various INC splinters/rebels and local BJP sometimes ally and sometimes rival MAG.  With INC splinter GFP already pulling support for the BJP government is pretty much already in minority. 

Now the BJP will have to pick a successor and get a vote of confidence through.  Most likely a series of political and most likely monetary bribes will be needed to get get such a vote through (like getting the lone NCP MLA to go over to the BJP camp.)  One way or another it will look ugly.  But the cost of losing CM position to INC is even worse for the BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #116 on: March 17, 2019, 08:30:57 PM »

In WB where current talks between Left Front and INC for an alliance which tentatively has it at  Left front 25 INC 17 has broken down for now with INC in a huff saying that Left Front was not serious about a deal. I do not know why.  Both Left Front and INC have bleed so much support to BJP the last couple of years that even if the Left Front vacated all seats other than a dozen seats that make up the Left Front strongholds I doubt the INC will not win any of them beyond the 4 seats which form the INC strongholds in Northern WB.  I think in the end there will still be at least a partial tactical alliance.  The fact that Left Front and INC are talking about an alliance shows how much both have fallen since 2004 when BJP and AITC were allies fighting Left front.

2004 WB LS elections (AITC alliance with BJP)     
             Contest    Win     Vote share
AITC+       42          1         29.11%
AITC         29          1          21.04%
BJP           13          0           8.06%

Left Front  42        35          50.72%

INC+        41          6          15.15%

AITC then formed an alliance with INC to take on Left Front after the falling out between INC and Left Front in 2008-9 at the national level.

2009 WB LS elections (AITC alliance with INC)
             Contest    Win     Vote share
AITC+      42          26         45.67%
AITC        27          19         31.18%
INC         14            6         13.45%
SUC          1            1           1.04%

Left Front 42         15          43.30%

BJP          42           1           6.14%

Then AITC and INC had a falling out in 2012 after AITC-INC took power at the state level followed by the Modi wave which had the effect of a BJP surge at the expense of Left Front and to some extent INC.

2014 WB LS elections
             Contest    Win     Vote share
AITC         42         34        39.79%

Left Front  42          2         29.94%

INC          42           4          9.69%

BJP           42          2        17.02%


After that a tactical alliance between Left Front and INC were defeated by AITC in the 2016 assembly elections which further weakened both with BJP eating into both and making it the main opposition to AITC.   Assuming that Left Front has an alliance with INC in 2019 my current projection has it at

2019 WB LS elections
             Contest    Win     Vote share
AITC          42        26        38.2%

Left Front+ 42         6         23.9%
Left Front   25         2         13.8%
INC           17         4          10.1%

BJP           42        10         34.8%

where Left Front and INC forming an alliance was just enough to save their strongholds but them losing support to BJP across the board allows BJP to capture a bunch of AITC seats.

It is just amazing how much Left Front and to some extent INC have fallen since 2004.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #117 on: March 18, 2019, 02:19:12 AM »

What has happened with the Left front?! A total collapse. Losing support first to AITC in West Bengal and now to BJP?! A losing Tripura to BJP! Are voters realy moving straight from CPI/CPM to BJP?
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jaichind
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« Reply #118 on: March 18, 2019, 11:40:58 AM »

What has happened with the Left front?! A total collapse. Losing support first to AITC in West Bengal and now to BJP?! A losing Tripura to BJP! Are voters realy moving straight from CPI/CPM to BJP?

The Left Front in WB came into power in 1977.  Then despite their Left position at the national level they co-opted the urban middle and industrial classes to create a clientist system to ensure that the Left Front stays in power.  So the Left Front vote base by the 1990s became actually pretty center-right.  What kept the Left front in power was that post-1991 its main rival INC needed the Left Front help to fight against the BJP and did not go all out to dislodge Left Front.  The AITC split from INC to take on Left Front.  AITC too the center-right approach by allying with the BJP which did not generate results in this fairly Leftist state.  The big Left Front mistake was in 2008  when they broke with INC over the USA nuclear deal.    INC then joined AITC who dropped BJP since the INC vote base was larger.  Then AITC shifted dramatically to the left to attack the Left front from the Left flank.  This was wildly successful since by the 2009 the Left Front became a Centrist outfit with both Left wing activists but also a strong Middle and industrial class base.  AITC took the left vote from Left front.  Then the BJP came in to 2014-2019 take the right vote from Left front leaving it a hollow shell.
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jaichind
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« Reply #119 on: March 18, 2019, 11:52:48 AM »

The alliance news last couple of days have been a disaster for INC.  First it seems the WB alliance with Left Front has broken down.  Had Left-Front and INC formed an alliance I figured that INC and Left front could retain their 4 and 2 seats from 2014.  Now if both INC and Left front contest everywhere I  figure INC could be down to 2 or even 1 seat and Left Front will be wiped out.  It will be mostly BJP that will gain these seats.  In the end I suspect they will work out at least some tactical deals but they are cutting it close.

In Bihar the RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP-LJD-CPI-CPI(ML) seems close to falling party.  The smaller parties like HAM VIP and CPI(ML) are demanding more seats which RJD is willing to accept by giving up a few seats as long as INC also so as well.  But INC insist on at least 11 seats (RJD is saying that INC will have to go down to as low as Cool and the alliance is at the brink of falling apart with some of the smaller allies going with RJD and others with INC.  This could mean that BJP-JD(U)-LJP will sweep Bihar with 38 or more seats out of 40.   I think in the end they will come up at least a tactical alliance but the perception that the alliance cannot get its act together will harm both RJD and INC.

In J&K it seems for now JKN and INC alliance talks have fell apart.  I think given the Kashmir terrorist attack in Feb the BJP is is going to win the 2 Jammu seats anyway.  But if INC takes on JKN in Kashmir it could throw the race to PDP despite a clear JKN advantage there and if JKN runs in Ladakh it could throw the race to the BJP despite a clear INC advantage there. 

In Delhi it does not look like the INC-AAP alliance talks are going anywhere given the anti-alliance position of the Delhi INC.  Most likely it will not take place and the BJP will sweep Delhi.

In UP all signs are that the SP and BSP vote bases are consolidating while the BJP is holding on to its Upper caste and OBC base.  That leaves INC with very little chance of winning seats beyond the two Gandhis.  INC position of 15+ seats pretty much put off SP-BSP for any alliance talks.   The only question now is will INC play spoiler to  SP-BSP or BJP which would depends on the type of campaign and candidate INC runs.  In a couple of seats where SP-BSP are very weak there might be  chances of anti-BJP tactical voting to help INC from SP-BSP but if INC goes all out to take on SP-BSP this will most likely not take place.
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jaichind
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« Reply #120 on: March 19, 2019, 07:49:39 AM »
« Edited: March 19, 2019, 07:52:48 AM by jaichind »

Times-Now VMR poll has it at

              Seats
NDA         282
UPA         136
Others      125


This poll also gave state-by-state prediction.  I added up their numbers and got NDA at 280 and not 282.  I think for Meghalaya they falsely counted ex-BJP allies NPP-UDP as NDA when I count them as pro-NDA.   They did not have polls for A&N and D&D both of which should be 1 BJP each which also makes the numbers add up.

Overall I think the poll assumes a Modi wave in Northern Hindi Upper Caste heavy regions.  I question this but if every poll shows this I might have to accept it as fact.  Some of the small state poll results shows some of the polling for small states are just made up and in a sloppy way that does not even take rudimentary political developments in those states into account.   SAD !!!

State by state are

TN which seems to match what I think should take place



Kerala seems reasonable



AP seems reasonable



Telangana - the 1 OTH winner is obviously AIMIM.  I find it hard to believe BJP can win 2 seats here.  They have a shot at winning Secundrabad and nowhere else in my view.



Karnataka - this seems to assume INC-JD(S) vote base does not jell which is very possible



WB - vote share and seat seems reasonable given no INC-Left Front alliance.  I do think INC should hold on to Baharampur for 1 seat
                   Seats       Vote share
AITC              31              39%
BJP                11              32%
Left Front        0               15%
INC                0                 8%


Bihar - seems reasonable, if INC-RJD alliance falls apart it could be a NDA clean sweep



Jharkhand - I think UPA should do somewhat better than this



Odisha  - this is a shock.  BJP is surging but I assumed that BJD should have the upper hand



Assam - poll does not take BJP-AGP alliance into account, still seat share seems reasonable



Maharashtra - I am going to stick to my guns and say UPA does better then this as NMS would tactically support UPA and the BJP-SHS war still has scars



Gujarat  - vote share seem right.  INC could get a couple of more seats in my view



UP - I think SP-BSP-RLD core vote are jelling well so unless we have another Modi wave I say SP-BSP-RLD does a bit better than this



Uttarakhand  - lots of Upper Castes voters here so I guess this is somewhat reasonable.  Still 2014 was such a Modi peak I find it hard that BJP can replicate it.



MP - seems possible if repeat of a Modi wave



Rajasthan - list like MP, seems possible if there is a Modi wave in Hindi belt



Chhattisgarh: INC 6 BJP 5


Delhi - seems reasonable - INC-AAP alliance could have beaten back BJP but that is not to be



Haryana - find these results hard to believe and seems to imply a Modi wave.  The Haryana  BJP government is not popular.  Agreed INLD imploded but most of the INLD vote should have gone to JJP and not BJP.   Also AAP should do better here than in 2014



Punjab - I think overstimulates INC.  AAP vote share too high most of which should go to SAD.  It is true that SAD is in shambles as well but the anti-incumbency vote should see SAD through to win some seats.  



J&K.  JKN at 4 seats make no sense. BJP at 2 which is Jammu seems right.  JKN willing all 3 Kashmir seats seems logical.  I find it hard to believe JKN can win Ladakh.  I guess INC and BJP split the Buddhist vote down the middle and the entire INC and PDP Muslim base goes over to JKN ?



HP - seems reasonable but not consistent with Haryana and Uttarakhand.  If there is a Modi wave in Hindu Upper Caste dominate areas which Haryana and Uttarakhand poll results seem to show then HP should be a BJP sweep as well.  HP to be fair is not that elastic but in theory Modi wave conquers all according to the poll results in other Hindi states.



Now comes some small states

Chandigarh



Puducherry



D&N H



Lakshadweep



Tripura - this is a clear mistake/typo.  No way INC vote share can be in the 30s.  It should be in the low single digits.  BJP will win both seats but its main opponent should be Left Front.



Sikkim - this poll counts SDF as part of NDA.  It is not clear if that is the case.  BJP broke of its alliance with SDF to ally with SKM who then dumped the BJP the day after the alliance was announced.  The state is SDF vs SKM but it is not clear what are the alliances these parties will belong to before and after the election.



Arunachal Pradesh



Goa



Manipur



Meghalaya - as mentioned before NPP-UDP (which I assume is the OTH 1) broke off their alliance with BJP but we should view them still as pro-NDA.



Mizoram - MNF is an ex-BJP ally and should be viewed as pro-NDA



Nagaland - this results shows that for small states this poll is just making things up.  Just like Tripura INC is now down to single digits.   NPF has since broken up with BJP who is allied with NPF splinter NDPP.  This election will be NDA NDPP vs NPF vs INC where INC is in single digits and NDPP winning by a small to medium margin over NPF.
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jaichind
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« Reply #121 on: March 19, 2019, 10:56:15 AM »

In Chhattisgarh it seems BJP has dropped all 10 BJP MP (out of 11 in the state) to prevent a similar meltdown they experienced in the 2018 Chhattisgarh  assembly election at the hands of INC.  That BJP can do this with what they view is limited blow-back from these sitting BJP MPs from running for INC or  as BJP rebels shows the level of discipline and determination the BJP has to winning this election. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #122 on: March 19, 2019, 12:37:41 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2019, 02:01:55 PM by jaichind »

Ok, so the word from Bihar is that INC-RJD finally reached a "new deal" after some of the smaller allies revolved at the "first deal."  Now it is going to be RJD 19 INC 9 RLSP 4 HAM 2 LJD 2 VIP 1 CPI(ML) 2.  I guess CPI got cut.  CPI(ML) at 2 make sense as there are 2 seats where CPI(ML) is fairly strong (Siwan and Arrah).  LJD at 2 is out of proportion with LJD strength as LJD is just a Sharad Yadav personality party.  Sharad Yadav has a pretty positive image but no real mass base.  I think RJD "overpaid" for LJD but most likely they wanted the image benefits of Sharad Yadav on the stump.

On the WB front I think the Left Front is making one last effort to at have at least a partial alliance with INC.  With alliances in seats where INC and Left Front are strong they are likely to repeat the 2014 performance of INC 4 seats and Left Front 2 seats (out of 42.)  If it is an all out war I project INC at 1 seat and Left Front at 0.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #123 on: March 19, 2019, 01:33:57 PM »

If Modi wins the election but is denied a majority, how likely is it that another candidate will he able to form a government and become PM?
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jaichind
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« Reply #124 on: March 19, 2019, 08:18:06 PM »

If Modi wins the election but is denied a majority, how likely is it that another candidate will he able to form a government and become PM?

BJP will have to be below 200 seats and even 180 seats.  Then Modi is out with someone in BJP like Maharashtra key BJP leader Nitin Gadkari. 



Another less likely BJP leader would be ex-UP CM and BJP heavyweight Rajnath Singh


Both are in the Modi cabinet today but both have connections with other pro-BJP parities to be able to rally a majority for a NDA government in case BJP falls far short of majority. 
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