2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

It seems the new Citizenship bill is blowing up in BJP's face.  What was a plan to grant Indian citizenship to non-Muslims from various part of Colonial India (Pakistan Sri Lanka Afghanistan Bangladesh)  in order to rope in Bengali Hindu votes as well as turn it into a Everyone vs Muslim battle has been turned into a Northeast native population (Ahom Hindus, Bodos and other tribals) vs BJP battle.  Several BJP allies or psudo allies like JD(I) and SHS have came out against it while BJP is facing mass rebellion in the Northeast (AGP left NDA, NPP might follow suit and several BJP units in the Northeast are threatening to dissolve itself.)

The BJP in Assam in order to try to regain some support came out with

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/assam-budget-2019-20-himanta-biswa-sarma-1-tola-gold-budgetary-control-1-tola-in-gram-assam-finance-department-govt-www-assam-gov-in-assam-budget/361219

which will give around $600 worth of gold to every bride, student subsidies, and provide more rice subsidies plus a bunch of other free goodies.  The funniest one is the free gold for brides.  This might trigger a bunch of fake marriages to cash in on this. You might even find the same women being married several times in a year.   

[Famous Mortimer]

Why are Shiv Sena opposing? Why don't they want more Hindus?

[jaichind]

Why are Shiv Sena opposing? Why don't they want more Hindus?

Because SHS wants to oppose anything that the BJP is for.  SHS evens goes to praise INC and Rahul Gandhi when they defeated BJP in the Dec assembly elections.  What the SHS is up to is a "poison pill" type negotiations strategy.  They want to paint themselves into a corner on purpose attacking BJP at every turn so if the SHS DOES NOT get very generous terms from the BJP for an alliance then it will lose so much credibility and its cadres so demoralized that the alliance is not even worth having.  The more difficult the BJP situation get and more SHS will peruse this strategy to extra the most pound of flesh from the BJP with the perpetration for a Kamikaze strategy of running separately and throwing the election in Maharashtra to INC-NCP.  What is stake here is who is the senior partner of the Pro-Hindu nationalist alliance in Maharashtra as far as the SHS is concerned.

[jaichind]

https://www.dailyo.in/politics/how-prashant-kishor-s-role-will-be-important-for-the-shiv-sena/story/1/29354.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/prashant-kishore-to-shiv-sena-remain-with-bjp-post-poll-nitish-kumar-pm-eligible/articleshow/67877406.cms

Are  interesting.  It seems JD(U) is trying to push a "Front within a Front" strategy.  JD(U) sent a key emissary  Prashant Kishor (who worked for BJP in 2014 then for INC and JD(U) in 2015-2017 as an campaign strategist  before joining JD(U)) to meet with SHS.   What he conveyed was interesting.  It was

a) SHS should go into an alliance with BJP on a 50/50 seat share
b) JD(U) is working to help the election campaigns of YSRCP who is a potential post election ally of BJP
c) JD(U) sees YSRCP, TRS and BJD supporting a BJP  government after the election
b) And the big bomb: If BJP does poorly then JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar can step in and become a PM with support from other parties.

It seems that the JD(U) is planning on and even hoping for a poor performance for BJP which knocks Modi out.  Then Nitish Kuamr can step in to become PM.  This might explain why JD(U) is against the new Citizenship bill.  JD(U) wants to expand in the Northeast and taking this position could allow JD(U) to recruit BJP allies (or former allies) like NPP and AGP into its "Front within a Front"

At the minimum JD(U) aspires to lead all non-BJP parties in NDA so they can lead a "bloc" negotiation BJP post election for their fair share of the spoils of power.    

[jaichind]

Trying to play both sides of the issue it seems in MP there are now INC posters that claim that if voted to power Rahul Gandhi will build the Ram Mandir (Temple) in Ayodhya which has been THE BJP issue since 1990.

[parochial boy]

OK, I'm a total novice as far as Indian politics is concerned, but my usual strategy of looking through old threads hasn't really answered these questions so -

Why exactly is the south so much more left-wing/progressive than the North(-west/Ganges valley)? like, I know that there is this Modi/BJP Hindi-Hindustan thing, which would be offputting to non-hindi speakers in the south, but Kerala in particular has been a stronghold of the communists for much longer for that. I mean, I was there earlier this year, and it does seem to be much more relaxed as concerns caste structure, relgion, gender relations and all that. For all that they had these riots over the hindu temple, the mosque near where I was staying had a female muezzin, which is pretty rare really, compared to the rest of the Islamic world - why would this be?

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/days-after-jind-bypoll-results-bsp-calls-off-alliance-with-inld-in-haryana/story-ylWcLgn2wrm8Ac0dudUtwO.html

In Haryana the BSP has called off its alliance with INLD after the Jind assembly by-election a few days ago showed that it was rapidly losing its Jat core base support to its splinter JJP.  BSP instead has allied with BJP Jat based splinter LSP.  

In the Jind by-election the INLD MLA passed away and the BJP was quick to recruit the deceased MLA's son to run as the BJP candidate to cash in on the sympathy factor.  The BJP won the by-election was par for the course given the sympathy factor plus the fact that incumbent parties tends over-perform in by-elections.

In 2014 the Jind assembly election result was

INLD         26.1%
BJP           24.2%
INC           12.6%
BSP           10.9%
HJC           10.1% (INC Jat splinter)
BJP rebel     9.3% (Jat based)
HJC rebel    3.5%

By the time the by-election took place HJC has merged back into INC while BJP suffered a Jat based splinter LSP while the Jat based INLD suffered a vertical split in the ruling family leading to JJP being formed and led by one the scion of the founding family of INLD.  With BJP recruiting the deceased INLD MLA's son as its candidate the BJP won but with INLD coming in at a shockingly poor result

BJP       38.7%
JJP       28.8%  (INLD splinter)
INC       17.4%
LSP       10.4% (BJP Jat splinter)
INLD       2.6%

BSP does not run in by-elections as a rule and supported its ally INLD in the by-election.  The result was that the BSP's vote base failed to transfer to INLD and the INLD base mostly went over to JJP.   As a result BSP has announced that it will end its alliance with INLD and ally with LSP.

It seems this coming election INC will be contesting in one piece while BJP and INLD will have to deal with splinters with the INLD's splinter being much more fatal.  It seems the upcoming battle will be BJP vs INC with the BJP having a small edge.  

[jaichind]

OK, I'm a total novice as far as Indian politics is concerned, but my usual strategy of looking through old threads hasn't really answered these questions so -

Why exactly is the south so much more left-wing/progressive than the North(-west/Ganges valley)? like, I know that there is this Modi/BJP Hindi-Hindustan thing, which would be offputting to non-hindi speakers in the south, but Kerala in particular has been a stronghold of the communists for much longer for that. I mean, I was there earlier this year, and it does seem to be much more relaxed as concerns caste structure, relgion, gender relations and all that. For all that they had these riots over the hindu temple, the mosque near where I was staying had a female muezzin, which is pretty rare really, compared to the rest of the Islamic world - why would this be?

I think this is mostly about how to create a unifying national identity to overcome religion, language, and caste identities so India could work as a united nation and develop into an economic and military superpower in the world.  The traditional vision from INC is based on Indian nationalism.  But that seems to have led to instances of  pandering to these same religion, language, and caste identities.   The BJP alternative vision is based on Hindu (and Hindi) nationalism as a unifying force.  The BJP is focused in Hindu nationalism but behind that, as everyone understands is, would eventually be Hindi nationalism.  The Hindi part of this vision clearly turns off Southern India since Dravidian languages are much further part to Hindu than other Northern languages. 

One example of the BJP push for Hindi in addition to Hindu nationalism is that Modi has started to speak Hindi in various international forums versus English.  Now that is alarming to states with their own language identities, especially Southern India.  Because on paper Hindi is NOT an official national language.  In theory Modi, who is from Gujarat, should really be speaking Gujarati at these international forums and not Hindi since under Indian law Hindi is no more official than Gujarati and is Modi's native tongue.   Of course the real reason is because Hindi is the the language spoken by a plurality of Indians (although concentrated in Northern India) so it is a good base to build a national language and national identity from.   So when the BJP is pushing for both Hindu and Hindi nationalism as a unifying factor the same resistance to Hindi nationalism in the South also turns them off toe Hindu nationalism.     

[Famous Mortimer]

What the hell is Jind?

[jaichind]

What the hell is Jind?

It is an assembly district in Haryana.  They just had a by-election a few days ago which had consequences for alliances in Haryana. 

[jaichind]

There are several states that will hold assembly elections at the same time as LS elections.  Orissa, AP, and J&K will for sure hold them with LS elections while others (Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand) could hold them at the same time as LS elections or be held in late 2019. 

Micro-states in the Northeast like Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh will also hold assembly elections with the LS elections but most likely I will not put much time on them.

AP election history already have been covered by
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281096.msg6491508#msg6491508

So I will focus on Orissa (or Odisha as it is called now) which is in Eastern India.


Orissa which was called Kalinga in ancient times is mostly populated by the Hindu Odia people who speak the Indo-Aryan Odia language.  In the North there are areas which have high concentration of tribal some of which are Christian. 
 

[jaichind]

The recent political history have been dominated by what I call the Two Patnaiks:  Biju Patnaik and Janaki Ballabh Patnaik.
 
Orissa was fairly competitive politically right after independence even though the INC was clearly the most dominant force.  But repeated defections from INC to opposition ranks have eroded the INC advantage.   Harekrushna Mahatab was the first INC CM


With the various princely states and big landlords formed GP which became a powerful opposition party to INC.    In 1959 INC center-right splinter SWA split from the INC and in Orissa formed an alliance with GP which posed a significant threat to INC.

But after that INC brought in its new rising superstar Biju Patnaik to lead the INC to a significant victory in 1961 and becoming CM over SWA-GP with the GP merging into SWA soon after that election.
 

But in 1963 under the Kamaraj Plan Biju Patnaik stepped down from CM position to focus on building the INC party.  In the meantime former INC CM  Harekrushna Mahatab split from INC and formed JAC.  Without Biju Patnaik the INC lost the 1967 assembly elections with the SWA coming to power with support of JAC and PSP.

After that Biju Patnaik had a falling out with Indira Gandhi and formed UTC.    A rising power in INC Janaki Ballabh Patnaik had to make a call on if he should go with Indira Gandhi or follow  Biju Patnaik.  In the end he went with Indira Gandhi and became a powerful force in Indiira Gandhi's INC.


The SWA government fell part due to defections from JAC ranks to join up with INC and in 1971 the Orrisa assembly elections were held at the same time as the LS elections.    Biju Patnaik  moved to national politics and ran in the LS elections and was defeated by the INC Indira wave.  But in the assembly election INC fell short of majority and a government led by an independent CM was formed with backing from both SWA and UTC as JAC mostly lost its support to UTC.

In 1972 UTC had a falling out with SWA and choose to back an INC government led by Nandini Satpathy who had some connections with Biju Patnaik
  

This arraignment did not last long and INC maintained its majority by getting a bunch of UTC defectors to join INC.  The unstable situation led to the 1974 elections which saw SWA and UTC join in an alliance to take on INC.  The INC failed to win a majority in a very close election but was able to form a majority with support from its tactical ally CPI.

Then came the 1975 emergency which eventually triggered a falling out between Nandini Satpathy  and Indira Gandhi as Nandini Satpathy resigned to join the anti-Indira Gandhi movement.  The emergency also saw Biju Patnaik jailed by Indiira Gandhi INC government.   The 1977 LS elections saw all anti-Indira Gandhi forces join forces (SWA SOP UTC JAC BJS) to form JNP.  Unlike Northern India Orissa under Nandini Satpathy did not indulge in excesses which actually did not lead to mass defections from INC in the 1977 LS elections where they took place in Northern India.  The result was a defeat of INC but the INC kept its vote base intact.

1977 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          21                 5             40.37%

CPI             5                  0               3.15%

JNP+         21                16             53.75% (CPM was part of JNP+)

Biju Patnaik led the JNP.  After the national victory of JNP in the LS elections with  Biju Patnaik becoming a minister in the new JNP government at the federal level  the Orissa assembly was dismissed and assembly elections took place.   The INC campaign was led by Janaki Ballabh Patnaik
 The result was a decisive JNP victory and a JNP CM with close links to Biju Patnaik installed.

1977 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        147                26             31.10%

INC rebel                         4              4.79%

CPI            25                  1              3.57%

JNP          147              110             49.17%

JNP rebel                         5              3.36%

CPM            4                  1              0.88%

The scale of the JNP victory was unprecedented in Orissa assembly election election and was the only time that a party won an absolute majority in the Orissa assembly election up until then other than the 1961 INC victory led by Biju Patnaik.

[jaichind]

After JNP took power at the federal level in 1977 things started to fall apart which led to the fall of the JNP government in 1979 and the anti-BJS JNP(S) splitting out of JNP and the midterm LS elections of 1980.   Biju Patnaik which was most of JNP in Orissa went with JNP(S).  In the meantime  anti-Indira Gandhi INC(U) split from INC and allied with JNP(S).  The LS election result saw an INC landslide with the anti-INC vote split.   INC won all the seats except for Biju Patnaik.

1980 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                 20             56.07%

JNP           20                  0             14.11%

JNP(S)+    21                  1             22.84% (INC(U) CPM  CPI were part of JNP(S)+)

JKD            5                   0              1.01% (Tribal party)


The return of Indira Gandhi's INC to power at the federal level also led to the recalling of the Orissa state assembly followed by assembly elections later in 1980.  In the meantime BJP split from JNP and INC(U) broke off its alliance with JNP(S) which added to the split of the anti-INC forces.  The INC campaign was led by  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik.   The result was a massive INC landslide despite losing vote share relative to the 1980 LS election.

1980 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        147              118            47.78%

INC rebel                         4              2.63%

JNP            31                  3              4.14%

JNP(S)+   123                14            21.95% (tactical alliance with CPI+)

JNP(S) rebel                    2              3.10%

CPI+          42                 4              7.20% (tactical alliance with JNP(S)+)

INC(U)       98                 2              7.03%

BJP            28                 0              1.36%

The INC was returned to power with  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik as the new INC CM.

The 1977 Orissa assembly election was a watershed.  Before 1977 every assembly election except for 1961 did not have a party with an overall majority.  All Orissa assembly elections 1977 and after would yield a party with an overall majority.

[jaichind]

After the return to power for the INC in Orissa and the federal level anti-incumbency began to build up.    There are rumors of corruption and demands for sexual favors in return for policies in the Janaki Ballabh Patnaik government including the CM himself.   Biju Patnaik took his followers out of JNP(S) (now called LKD) and joined with JNP as BJP has left JNP and there were signs that LKD was open to cooperation with BJP.   Biju Patnaik. is fairly negative on the BJP and looked forward to storming back to power in Orissa based on the decline of INC fortunes.  All this was turned in 1984 when Indira Gandhi was assassinated and produced a sympathy wave in the 1984 midterm LS election for INC which also reached Orissa.    Once again  Biju Patnaik was the only opposition winner of a LS seat in Orissa with INC sweeping the rest.

1984 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                 20             57.46%

JNP+         21                  1             35.29% (CPM  CPI were part of JNP+)

LKD            5                   0              1.03%

BJP            4                   0               1.18%

Even though Biju Patnaik led JNP was sounded defeated in Orissa the election showed that in Orissa Biju Patnaik was the only alternative in town as an opposition force to take on INC.  For the 1985 Orissa assembly election Biju Patnaik resigned his LS seat to lead JNP into battle against Janaki Ballabh Patnaik and with the 1984 INC wave still not subsided was soundly beaten by the INC as Janaki Ballabh Patnaik was returned to power.

1985 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        147              117            51.08%

INC rebel                         1              1.52%

JNP+        142                21            31.04% (tactical alliance with CPI+)

JNP rebel                         5              3.92%

CPI+          37                 1              4.45% (tactical alliance with JNP+)

BJP            67                 1              2.60%

SUCI           2                  1              0.29%

One again even in defeat Biju Patnaik showed that his JNP was the only real opposition to INC in Orissa.  That would prove useful in the next round of struggle against INC.

[Sestak]

Hey jaichind, quick question -

Would you by any chance be able to compile an updated list of the alliances/prospective alliances are in each state and their implications? Reading your extensive contributions to this thread has been very informative, but a more concise resource for this would be helpful.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Do you think the BJP could get a majority by themselves again

[jaichind]

Do you think the BJP could get a majority by themselves again

Most likely not.  Most poll have BJP short of majority and in fact NDA short of majority and in India the ruling party is usually overestimated in polls.  The only counter example would be 2009 when UPA outperformed polls other then that most poll always overestimate the incumbent party.   

Another sign that things are not going great for BJP in their own assessment is how they are dealing with SHS.  SHS has been pretty much spewing venom at BJP and the response from BJP has been nil and assertion that there will be a BJP-SHS alliance.  SHS is now demanding a majority of assembly and even LS seats in Maharashtra while BJP wants 50/50 split.  The fact that the BJP is willing to accept a lower share of seat relative to their 2014 performance seems to indicate that they are getting desperate to avoid a loss of seats in  Maharashtra.  This and their climb-down  in Bihar where they agreed to an even share of seats with JD(U) shows that their internal assessment is not optimistic.

[jaichind]

Hey jaichind, quick question -

Would you by any chance be able to compile an updated list of the alliances/prospective alliances are in each state and their implications? Reading your extensive contributions to this thread has been very informative, but a more concise resource for this would be helpful.

Ok. let me take a shot at this for the bigger states.

For HP, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh, and Goa the LS election will be a bipolar battle of BJP vs INC.  BSP and allies (like JCC Chhattisgarh) in have some strength in certain pockets and could swing  the election result in some seats but the key issue here is "Can Modi get BJP to punch above its weight given recent assembly election results and anti-incumbency trends".  If not then the INC will gain a bunch of seats here from the BJP relative to 2014.

Haryana: Was suppose to be BJP vs INC vs INLD-BSP.  For the first time since 2005 INC is united.  BJP is facing anti-incumbency due to anger from the powerful Jat community.  INLD has suffered a vertical split with INLD splinter JJP now torpedoing any chances for INLD.  BSP has decided to go with BJP Jat based splinter LSP.  AAP is also making a move here.  It should end up being BJP vs INC with the result being how the INLD, JJP,  LSP-BSP and AAP split the vote.  INC on paper should make a strong comeback given the circumstances but Modi could carry BJP to victory based on his own brand.

Punjab: Will be INC vs SAD-BJP vs AAP.  SAD-BJP was crushed by INC in the 2017 assembly elections which even with anti-incumbency should give INC an edge here.   AAP has mostly imploded here which should help SAD in particular.  I think in the end it will be bipolar between INC and SAD-BJP with the two side splitting the seats fairly evenly.

Delhi: BJP vs AAP vs INC.  Unless AAP and INC can form an alliance the BJP will sweep all the seats. The main problem is that INC has regained a lot of ground since the 2015 assembly AAP landslide victory so both AAP and INC can make an argument that it can wipe out the other so on the long run it can be the main alternative to the BJP.  Looks more and more unlikely an AAP-INC alliance can be formed.

UP: BJP-AD-SBSP vs SP-BSP-RLD vs INC.  How the election will turn out will depend on the strength of the Modi brand to carry BJP above its weight, if the SP-BSP vote bloc can fuse, and if SP-BSP-RLD can pull off a de facto tactical alliance with INC where INC poaches the BJP Upper Caste vote while SP-BSP runs weak candidates in areas where it is BJP vs INC.  BJP ally SBSP or even AD might defect to SP-BSP if they do not get their pound of flesh.    SP splinter PSP could also end up as an INC ally and could hurt SP-BSP in some seats.

Bihar: BJP-JD(U)-LJP vs RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI.  The social base of the two blocs are roughly equal.   BJP-JD(U)-LJP should have the upper hand given the Nitish Kumar brand and that alliance have greater cohesion where as RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI are running into seat sharing problems.  Only thing RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI can could on is some sort of undetected anti-incumbency toward the JD(U).  There is still a small chance that INC will leave    RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI and form an alliance with JD(U) if JD(U) is negative on BJP's chances in which case it becomes BJP-LJP vs RJD-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI vs JD(U)-INC.  In theory possible but unlikely.

Jharkhand: BJP vs INC-JMM-JVM-RJD.  In theory BJP ally AJSU might join BJP but in reality with BJP winning 12 out of 14 seats in 2014 the AJSU will not be able to get a seat sharing deal that it would demand so AJSU will most likely run separately.  There seems to be significant anti-incumbency against the BJP  so if INC-JMM-JVM-RJD cnd hold together the BJP will be in trouble.

Maharashtra: Should be BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP.  INC-NCP alliance is set.  BJP and SHS are still playing a game of chicken on alliance talks but in the end should form an alliance or else INC-NCP will sweep the state.  SHS splinter NMS has gone completely anti-Modi will run separately even though there are talks of NMS joining INC-NCP if BJP-SHS forms an alliance.  If SHS does run separately I can see NMS forming an alliance with SHS.  All things equal a BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP battle is advantage BJP-SHS although not to the same degree as 2014.

WB: AITC vs BJP vs Left Front vs INC.   This state is moving toward a AITC vs BJP battle.  The new Citizenship bill while turning off the Northeast to BJP does help BJP with Bengali voters.  Left Front will be pushed to a poor third and end up with no seats.  INC will be reduced to small pockets of strength.  Left Front and INC might try for a tactical alliance most likely to no avail.  AITC will win but BJP will gain a lot of ground in vote share and perhaps seats.

Orissa: BJD vs BJP vs INC.  INC is on the decline so it will be mostly BJD vs BJP.  BJD should win but there might be hidden anti-incumbency against BJD which could throw a surprise BJP victory.  On the long run this state might become BJD vs BJP bipolar state which could push BJD into an anti-BJP party vs its current position of being both anti-BJP and anti-INC. 

Karnataka: INC-JD(S) vs BJP.  BJP tends to outperform here in LS elections.  The tenuous INC-JD(U) alliance on paper should crush BJP.  Of course if the alliance has problems on the ground and it does then the BJP could fight INC-JD(S) to a draw.

AP: TDP vs YSRCP vs JS-Left vs INC vs BJP.  Mostly a TDP (anti-BJP) vs YSRCP battle.  TDP taking an anti-BJP pro-INC position has pushed YSRCP to a de facto pro-BJP position.  BJP has always been weak here and INC's image has been destroyed due to the creation of Telenaga in 2014.  A TDP-INC alliance was called off due to the negative brand of INC.  You can same the same for a possible YSRCP-BJP alliance due to the toxic brand of BJP here.  JS-Left could split the anti-TDP vote and help TDP but in the end YSRCP seems likely to win the state.  YSRCP could end up supporting BJP after the election.

Telangana: TRS-AIMIM vs INC vs TDP vs BJP.  Mostly a TRS vs INC battle with TDP and BJP having certain pockets of strength.  TDP's brand here is toxic due to its image of being opposed to the creation of Telangana in 2014 so INC and TDP choose to run separately.  TRS should repeat its 2018 assembly election victory especially after it got AIMIM to tactically back it.   TRS could support BJP after the election. 

TN: AIADMK vs DMK-INC-MDMK vs AMMK vs PMK vs DMDK vs MNM vs BJP.  Very chaotic.  AIADMK could ally with BJP due to pressure  from BJP despite BJP's toxic brand here.  As it is DMK-INC-MDMK is very strong and look posed to sweep the state due to the split of the AIADMK vote with AIADMK splitner AMMK.  In response I can see a AIADMK-DMDK-PMK-BJP alliance to try to stop the DMK-INC-MDMK Juggernaut.  Anti-BJP MNM  could end up with DMK-INC-MDMK.   Result will really depend on how badly AMMK hits AIADMK in term splitting the AIADMK vote.

Kerala: INC-KEC(M)-MUL vs Left Front vs BJP.  Used to bipolar between INC-KEC(M)-MUL and Left Front. BJP is surging here and could win a seat.  There is anti-incumbency against the Left Front so INC-KEC(M)-MUL should do well.

 
Assam: BJP-BPF vs INC vs AIUDF vs AGP.  AGP has left its alliance with BJP-BPF due to the new Citizenship bill.  If anything that could help BJP-BPF as that might split the anti-BJP Ahom vote from INC.  if the Muslim vote is split between INC and AIUDF and the Ahom vote is split between INC and AGP then BJP-BPF will do very well.

Northeast mini states : Mostly BJP and allies should gain vs INC.  New citizenship bill will hurt BJP but the pull of federal subsidies will be too strong and should propel BJP and allies to victory.

Federal territories:  Mostly BJP vs INC (Pondicherry will be AINRC vs INC) and BJP should have a edge here.

[jaichind]

Kashmir Death Toll Climbs to 40 in India’s Worst Attack Under Modi

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-14/roadside-blast-kills-18-indian-paramilitary-troops-in-kashmir

Modi will be under pressure to take some sort of action especially with elections coming up.  Could be double edged sword for BJP.

[jaichind]

Likely going to be more Surgical Strikes. If Modi can drag the Tension out it will put Opposition in a difficult Situation of having to support the Government like Vajpayee mastered with the Kargil War in 1999. Also Kashmiri Bodybags sell quite well in Indian elections, sadly.

What downsides do you see for the BJP? I dont really see any for Modi, at least not inside the country....

If Modi's response is too strong and provokes escalation from Pakistan and perhaps drag USA into the situation then he can be accused of mishandling the situation by making the Kashmir issue more internationalized versus the Indian narrative of it being an internal Indian domestic issue. 

[jaichind]

Alliance updates:
1) In Mahabharata, as expected SHS and BJP are moving toward an alliance.  It is now only a matter of on what terms.  There are signs that NCP is openly pushing for SHS splinter NMS to join INC-NCP alliance.  INC objects saying that NMS is "not secular" but the real issue is whereas SHS is mostly anti-Muslim, NMS is both anti-Muslim and anti-North Indian.  INC's real fear is that NMS joining INC-NCP will hit them in Northern India, especially UP and Bihar.

2) It seems BJP pulled the plug for now on New Citizenship bill given the loud negative feedback in Northeast India.  I guess this prevents large scale defections of allies in Northeast India and opens the door for AGP to rejoin NDA.

3) In TN it seems that we are iterating toward a AIADMK-BJP-PMK-DMDK alliance to counter the DMK-INC-MDMK-VCK-CPI juggernaut.  It seems AIADMK internally does not want BJP as an ally as it will clearly drive anti-BJP votes away.  But given the number of pending corruption cases against key AIADMK leaders they might not have much of a choice.

[jaichind]

Back to Orissa election history

After the INC landslides of 1984 LS and 1984 Orissa assembly elections, INC past finally caught up with it.  Corruption charges at the federal and Orissa level hurt the INC brand.  Various scandals related to Janaki Ballabh Patnaik from his first term are all coming out.   At the national level JNP and LKD merged with anti-Rajiv Gandhi INC rebels to form JD and sought to fight the 1989 LS elections with tactical alliance with Left Front and BJP.  In Orissa  Biju Patnaik led the JD effort.   Given  Biju Patnaik's anti-BJP stance JD did not form a tactical alliance with BJP unlike other parts of Northern India but JD won a smashing victory never-the-less.

1989 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                  3             38.41%

JD+          21                18              56.08% (CPM  CPI were part of JD+)

JNP          13                   0               1.21% (One faction of JNP refused to join JD)

BJP            6                   0               1.28%

JKD+         4                   0               0.60% (Tribal party)

With the INC defeated in 1989 a JD minority government was installed at the federal level with outside support from the Left Front and BJP.   For the 1990 Orissa assembly election Biju Patnaik led the JD effort without, again, a tactical deal with BJP.  It did not matter as the swing against Janaki Ballabh Patnaik's INC was so massive that JD won the largest landslide in Orissa assembly election before or since.

1990 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        146               10             30.01%

INC rebel                         1              2.44%

JD+         139              123             53.69% (tactical alliance with CPI+)

JD rebel                          3              1.34%

CPI+          17                 6              3.81% (tactical alliance with JD)

BJP            63                 2              3.56%

Biju Patnaik took over as CM for the first time since he resigned in 1963 when he was INC CM.

[jaichind]

The JD government pretty much fell apart in 1991 with BJP dropping support over the Ram Temple issue as well as the JD splinter JD(S) pulling out of JD.  Biju Patnaik  and his supporters stayed loyal to JD.  After a short sprint of JD(S) government with outside support from INC new election were called.  The BJP was en route to large gains due to the Ram Temple issue until the Rajiv Gandhi assassination drove a lot of sympathy vote to INC.  Orissai voted after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination and saw both INC and BJP grew at the expense of JD with JD(S) further splitting the JD vote.  The result was a small INC edge over JD with BJP making a big jump (although not as big as it would been if there were not the Rajiv Gandhi assassination)

1991 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                13              44.05%

JD+          21                  8              39.75% (CPM CPI were part of JD+)

JD(S)       18                   0               2.97%

BJP          21                   0               9.50%

JMM          2                   0               0.60% (Tribal party but more Jharkhand based)

The INC returned to power at the federal level as the result of the 1991 LS election.   The  Biju Patnaik government over time saw growing frustration and anti-incumbency to the point that despite  Biju Patnaik's personal popularity his government was not popular and was defeated in the 1995 assembly election by INC led again by Janaki Ballabh Patnaik.  The BJP for the first time went all out to grow in Orissa and while still performed poorly was growing in terms of vote share showing that its 1991 LS surge due to the Ram Temple issue was being sustained.

1995 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        147               80             39.39%

INC rebel                         3              3.09%

JD+         147                47             35.83%

JD rebel                          1              1.64%

SJP            59                 0              1.36% (renamed from JD(S))

BJP          144                 9              7.88%

CPI+          34                 1              2.57%

JMM           16                 4              1.94%

JPP              4                 1              0.17% (Tribal party)

SUCI           1                  1              0.13%

One more Janaki Ballabh Patnaik was made INC CM after the INC victory despite his tainted term in 1980-1990 given his organizational skills in delivering victory to INC.

The 1996 LS election took place soon after the INC return to power in Orissa.  There was heavy anti-incumbency to INC at the national level although INC was still in its honeymoon period at the state level.   Biju Patnaik  led JD into battle and ran heavy on an anti-INC and anti-BJP campaign.  The relative popularity of the new INC government in Orissa and a further surge of the INC split the anti-INC vote to deliver a fairly large INC victory even as the INC suffered setbacks in the rest of the county.  What also helped INC was the INC PM P. V. Narasimha Rao who is from AP choose to run for a LS seat in Orissa.

1996 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                16             44.90%

JD+          21                  4             33.43% (CPM was part of JD+)

BJP           20                  0             13.42%

SJP            2                   1              1.55%

JMM           4                   0              1.55%

The BJP surge in 1991-1996 period shows that is is arriving as a real third force to break the INC-JD duopoly on power. 

[jaichind]

After the 1996 LS elections a JD minority government was formed without side support of INC to keep out the BJP.  This type of arrangement was by definition unstable and bound to fall which it did in 1998.  In the meantime Biju Patnaik passed away in 1997.  His son Naveen Patnaik who was a writer and have no real political experience was brought in from Delhi to Orissa to try to fill his father's void.  


Naveen Patnaik barely spoke Odia due to his long stay in Delhi but so strong was the memory Biju Patnaik that did not deter the population of Orissa from giving him strong support especially as the INC government of Janaki Ballabh Patnaik have fallen into the familiar pattern of corruption and scandal.  

When INC finally pulled the plug on the JD government in 1998, Naveen Patnaik who did not share his father's hostility toward the BJP proposed an JD-BJP alliance to take on INC in the 1998 LS elections.  This was rejected by JD high command who insisted on being equidistant to INC and BJP.  In response Naveen Patnaik split JD in Orissa to form BJD and formed and alliance with BJP.  The BJD-BJP alliance trounced INC in the 1998 LS election in Orissa pushing JD into a poor third place.

1998 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                  5              41.04%

BJD+        21                 16             48.69% (BJP was part of BJD+)

JD+          21                   0              8.40% (JMM CPI CPM was part of JD+)

The BJP and its allies did well enough in the 1998 LS elections to form a government at the center with the support of TDP.   But in 1999 due to the defection of AIADMK the BJP government fell and the 1999 LS elections were held.   The 1999 LS elections saw a wave in favor of BJP PM Vajpayee due to the circumstances where his government fell and this was especially true in Orissa as the poor performance of JD+ in the 1998 LS elections led what is left of JD to pretty much go over to BJD.  The result was a landslide victory for BJD-BJP.

1999 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           20                  2             36.94%

BJD+        21                 19             57.63% (BJP was part of BJD+)

BJP rebel                         0              0.73%

CPI+          5                   0              1.37% (CPM was part of CPI+)

JMM           7                   0              1.70%

The defeat of INC was so well expected that the INC failed to even nominate a candidate against Naveen Patnaik especially as natural disasters in Orissa exposed the incompetence of the  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik INC government.   In many ways the 2000 Orissa election was pre-ordained as a INC landslide defeat as  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik's INC was soundly defeated by the BJD-BJP alliance led by  Naveen Patnaik.

2000 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        146                26            33.92%

INC rebel                         2              2.71%

BJD+        147              106            47.59%
 
BJD rebel                         4              4.12%
BJP rebel                         2              0.83%

AITC          36                  1             0.78% (INC splinter but de facto BJD rebel)

CPI+          69                 3              2.93% (JD(S) and CPM were part of CPI+)

JMM           21                 3              2.14%

BSP          105                 0             1.15%

The BJD-BJP alliance was not as strong in the 2000 Orissa assembly election given the large number of BJD and BJP rebels.  But so unpopular was the Janaki Ballabh Patnaik INC government that this did not stop a BJD-BJP victory and Naveen Patnaik  being installed as the BJD CM of Orissa.

[jaichind]

The Naveen Patnaik BJD government installed after the 2000 Orissa assembly election was fairly popular so when 2004 LS elections were called Naveen Patnaik choose to go for early assembly elections at the same time especially when the NDA which BJD was a part of was fairly popular nationally and was expected to return to power.  It turned out that NDA was ousted nationally but in Orissa BJD-BJP did fairly well and Naveen Patnaik was returned to power even as the UPA swept into power nationally even as BJD splinter OGP was allied with INC.

2004 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           20                  2             40.43% (de facto CPI support)

BJD+        21                 18             49.31% (BJP was part of BJD+)

BJP rebel                         0              0.93%

JMM           7                   1              1.54%

BSP          12                   0              2.20%


2004 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        139                40            36.59% (OGP part of INC+, tactical alliance with CPI+)

INC rebel                         1              2.10%

CPI+          17                 2              1.76% (JD(S) CPM part of CPI+,tactical alliance with INC+)

BJD+        147                93            44.47% (BJP was part of BJD+)
 
BJD rebel                         6              4.59%
BJP rebel                         0              0.84%

JMM           12                 4              1.78%

BSP            86                 0             1.93%

SUCI            1                 1              0.13%

BJD-BJP won easily the LS election as Janaki Ballabh Patnaik again led the INC campaign.  Despite BJD splinter OGP going with INC, a a tactical alliance between INC+ and CPI+ and continued BJD and BJP rebels the BJD-BJP alliance was returned to power with Naveen Patnaik continuing as CM.  Overall INC gained ground since 1999-2000 but was still some distance away from taking back power.