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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 45007 times)
Old School Republican
Computer89
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E: 3.61, S: -0.10

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« Reply #525 on: May 22, 2019, 11:37:49 pm »

So would this result lead to another party on the left rising and potentially causing Congress to go the way the Whig party went here
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #526 on: May 22, 2019, 11:41:43 pm »

Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #527 on: May 22, 2019, 11:44:27 pm »

Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%

Well at least bjp is trailing in my ancestral homeland, so that feels a tad better, but expected.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #528 on: May 22, 2019, 11:47:01 pm »

TN vote share

DMK-INC bloc         53.3%
AIADMK-BJP bloc    29.8%

If this holds then it could be a 38-0 sweep for UPA here
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,244
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #529 on: May 22, 2019, 11:47:36 pm »

Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%

Well at least bjp is trailing in my ancestral homeland, so that feels a tad better, but expected.

One of the few states I actually got the seats and vote count roughly correct (so far)
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,244
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #530 on: May 22, 2019, 11:48:29 pm »

NDA    321(-31)
UPA    110(+45)
OTH    111(-14)
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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E: -1.48, S: -1.83


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« Reply #531 on: May 22, 2019, 11:49:30 pm »

Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%

Well at least bjp is trailing in my ancestral homeland, so that feels a tad better, but expected.

One of the few states I actually got the seats and vote count roughly correct (so far)

I am keeping an eye on Jalandhar constituency, which is where my family is originally from, any guesses on it?
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,244
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #532 on: May 22, 2019, 11:50:36 pm »

WB seat count now has AITC 23 BJP 15 INC 3 so BJP is falling which is what I said would take place based on my reading of the vote share count coming in.  Still a massive BJP surge.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #533 on: May 22, 2019, 11:52:41 pm »

UP vote share

BJP              50.8%
SP-BSP-RLD 38.4%
INC               5.8%
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #534 on: May 22, 2019, 11:53:28 pm »

Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%

Well at least bjp is trailing in my ancestral homeland, so that feels a tad better, but expected.

One of the few states I actually got the seats and vote count roughly correct (so far)

I am keeping an eye on Jalandhar constituency, which is where my family is originally from, any guesses on it?

My model has a easy INC win there for what it is worth
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,244
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #535 on: May 22, 2019, 11:57:49 pm »

Bihar Vote share

BJP-JD(U)-LJP        55.0%
RJD-INC-HAM-VIP   23.2% (does not include HAM and VIP which are too small in ECI breakout so I suspect it is something like 26% overall)
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #536 on: May 22, 2019, 11:58:07 pm »

Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%

Well at least bjp is trailing in my ancestral homeland, so that feels a tad better, but expected.

One of the few states I actually got the seats and vote count roughly correct (so far)

I am keeping an eye on Jalandhar constituency, which is where my family is originally from, any guesses on it?

My model has a easy INC win there for what it is worth

Yay, at this point it’s the small bright spots that are keeping me from being very sad right now.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #537 on: May 23, 2019, 12:01:07 am »

Delhi vote share

BJP  57.6%
INC  20.5%
AAP  19.2%

If this holds even a INC-AAP alliance would not have worked and would have been a repeat of the Karnataka fiasco
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #538 on: May 23, 2019, 12:01:26 am »

Lmao the left on NDTV are blaming the loss on voters benign racist , voting on fears . Looks like they are taking cues from SJW here
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #539 on: May 23, 2019, 12:01:57 am »

Based on these trends I think the Karnataka JD(S)-INC and TN AIADMK governments will fall pretty soon.  MP INC government could be in trouble as well.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #540 on: May 23, 2019, 12:02:46 am »

INC keeps on talking about BJP media campaign as the cause of victory.  They are not confronting the main problem which is that in a national election they had nothing to counter Modi with.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #541 on: May 23, 2019, 12:04:59 am »

Sh!t, even Shiv Sena might be gaining.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #542 on: May 23, 2019, 12:04:59 am »

Haryana vote share

BJP  57.3%
INC  28.0%
INLD 2.1% !!!!

INLD base completely gone and have gone over to BJP.
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

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« Reply #543 on: May 23, 2019, 12:05:06 am »

INC keeps on talking about BJP media campaign as the cause of victory.  They are not confronting the main problem which is that in a national election they had nothing to counter Modi with.


Blaming the voters does nothing but set you up of losing after losing elections
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,244
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #544 on: May 23, 2019, 12:09:53 am »

AP vote share (YSRCP sweep)

YSRCP   49.8%
TDP       39.0%
INC        1.3%
BJP        0.8%
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,244
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #545 on: May 23, 2019, 12:11:39 am »

Telangana vote share

TRS     42.0%
INC     29.0%
BJP     19.1%
AIMIM  2.6%

Not as big of a TRS victory as expected. Still a solid TRS victory can be expected.
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,244
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #546 on: May 23, 2019, 12:12:42 am »

Telangana has TRS 11 BJP 5 INC 1.  No way BJP has 5 seats.  This will go down and go to TRS as more votes comes in.
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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E: 3.61, S: -0.10

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« Reply #547 on: May 23, 2019, 12:13:16 am »

Wouldn’t u say this is more like UK 1983 than US 1936


In 1936 the Dems were dominant in every part of the nation while in the UK the Thatcher landslide was based on sweeping wins in England even though they got wiped out in Scotland
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RoboWop
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« Reply #548 on: May 23, 2019, 12:13:30 am »

Watching the NDTV pundits trying to navigate all of the various crosstabs and state results and alliances versus parties is kind of hilarious.
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jaichind
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« Reply #549 on: May 23, 2019, 12:13:55 am »

NDA    326(-26)
UPA    105(+40)
OTH    111(-14)
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