2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Computer89
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« Reply #25 on: January 23, 2019, 10:17:51 PM »

How the hell is Rahul Gandhi still leader after getting beaten so badly last time?

Also, why wouldn't possible coalition partners for the BJP want Modi to remain Prime Minister? Who would they put in his place?

Because the INC is basically totally controlled by the Gandhi Family.
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« Reply #26 on: January 23, 2019, 10:20:22 PM »

Do you think there would be a possibility for a new liberal party to form in India and become a force in politics say over the next 5-10 years.

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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: January 24, 2019, 09:51:28 AM »

How the hell is Rahul Gandhi still leader after getting beaten so badly last time?

Also, why wouldn't possible coalition partners for the BJP want Modi to remain Prime Minister? Who would they put in his place?

To be fair, Sonia Gandhi was Prez of INC until Dec 2017 and Rahul Gandhi took over only in then.  I agree that Rahul Gandhi became the face of the INC as early as 2014 and the track record was pretty poor.  Most of that was because the cycle of anti-incumbency was running against the INC in those elections.  That cycle mostly played itself out by end of 2017 when Rahul Gandhi took over (which should be seen as a feature.) 

The reason why INC have to go with the Gandhis is the INC is really a confederation of various local factions which would otherwise be at their throats, especially when the national INC could be captured by a subset of these factions which would cause consternation at those INC factions that were not part of the ruling bloc of factions.  The Gandhi clan is convenient for the INC since they have a) national name recognition and b) not that tied to any local INC faction and could be above the fray.  As a result the Gandhi clan becomes the INC lowest common denominator for all their local factions.

As for BJP and Modi, Modi, unlike  Vajpayee, tend to be more arbitrary in decision making and spends less time to get buy in on policy issues from various BJP factions and BJP allies.  While Modi fetches votes to get the BJP to a majority or near majority by itself the anti-Modi factions and BJP allies have to accept Modi as the PM.  If the BJP falls below majority by large enough margin then BJP allies and potential BJP allies along with anti-Modi factions will demand a more consensus making BJP PM.
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jaichind
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« Reply #28 on: January 24, 2019, 10:18:38 AM »

Do you think there would be a possibility for a new liberal party to form in India and become a force in politics say over the next 5-10 years.


I really doubt it.  The main political issue for India at this stage is around how to create a national vision that the population can unite around to propel India into a true Great Power.  The INC vision is centered around Indian nationalism and the BJP vision is around Hindu nationalism.  Below that most political debate are around issues of sharing of scare educational and government resources  which more and more are on a communal basis.  The issue of quotas based on caste, community, economic status seems to be gaining more salience.  None of this seems will create the ground for the creation of an economic liberal party.  I had hoped Modi might be that but in the end such an agenda does not fetch votes.  Pushing Hindu nationalism and building Ram temples is what will fetch BJP votes.
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jaichind
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« Reply #29 on: January 24, 2019, 05:21:58 PM »

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2019/01/24/congress-tdp-split-too-late-to-reverse-the-effect.html

It seems the INC-TDP alliance is off in both AP and Telangana.

I assume the reason is the lesson learned from the Telangana assembly election in late 2018.  The assumption was that in Telangana "math" counts for more then "chemistry".  That was my reading of the election history of Telangana and how INC and TDP read it and it ended up being totally wrong.  In Telangana the TDP was viewed as an enemy party that opposed the formation of Telangana in 2014 while INC was viewed as a party that, with TRS, shared the credit for creating Telangana.  But the INC-TDP alliance pushed the anti-TDP but potentially pro-INC vote toward TRS.

In AP which still viewed the creation of Telangana with anger,  both TDP and YSRCP are viewed as being anti-Telangana bifurcation and if the INC joined TDP alliance then the same problem will take place in reverse where the INC is viewed as the party that brought about Telangana state.  YSRCP has formed an alliance with TRS-AIMIM at the national level which is more about capturing the anti-BJP vote in AP in the upcoming election but risks losing the anti-Telangana vote.  TDP most likely wanted the anti-Telangana vote demanded enough concession from INC to make it worth their while that INC walked away.  From the INC point of view not having an alliance with TDP also hedges for the situation where YSRCP sweeps the state and INC and BJP need to battle to get YSRCP on its side.  A TDP-INC alliance for sure will drive YSRCP toward the BJP post-election.  Even now YSRCP is more likely to go with BJP post-election although not pre-election as the BJP brand is pretty poor in AP and to some extent Telangana as well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: January 24, 2019, 09:16:06 PM »
« Edited: January 26, 2019, 10:03:10 AM by jaichind »

Full India Today Mood of the nation poll



Which has
              
                    Seat      Vote share
NDA(BJP)   237(202)     35%
UPA(INC)   166(97)       33%
Others       140             32%

This poll has been trending UPA for last few cycles


By region

North (this is mostly about SP-BSP surge in UP eating in BJP)
            Seats   Vote share
NDA        66         40%
UPA         20         23%
Others     65         37%

South (this is mostly about DMK-INC doing well in TN eating into AIADMK)
            Seats   Vote share
NDA        26         18%
UPA         78         43%
Others     39         30%

West (this assumes BJP-SHS alliance is still on in Maharashtra which is a big if)
            Seats   Vote share
NDA        76         46%
UPA         40         42%
Others       0         12%

East (BJP eats into AITC in WB and BJD in Orissa)
            Seats   Vote share
NDA        69         37%
UPA         28         25%
Others     45         38%

Overall this poll has BJP at 202 seats which it is barely enough for Modi perhaps to hang on as PM. Anything lower than 200 seats then for sure Modi has to go.  200-230 for BJP I think there is a chance that Modi has to go but it could go either way.

It seems that UP and if Modi can get BJP to outperform in BJP-INC states in Northern India will decide Modi's fate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #31 on: January 24, 2019, 11:13:09 PM »

C-voter came out with they monthly poll/projection for LS elections

Overall it has(diff on Dec poll)

           seats      vote share
NDA     233(-14)    37.6%(-0.1%)
UPA     167(-4)      32.2%(-0.6%
Others 143(+18)  


This poll is actually more pro-NDA than the India today poll since this poll assumes NO BJP-SHS alliance in Maharastra whereas the India Today poll assumes that that alliance holds.

Breakdown by state are

 





Not much shift on a state by state basis versus the Dec 2018 projections.  Key states are
Uttarakhand



MP



Maharashtra



Telangana



Kerala



Karnataka



Jharkhand



WB



UP



J&K



Rajasthan



Punjab



TN



Bihar



HP



Assam



Orissa



AP



Haryana
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jaichind
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« Reply #32 on: January 26, 2019, 10:01:31 AM »

Same India Today Mood of the nation poll also polled who should be PM in 2019.

Modi                46
Rahul Gandhi    34
Banerjee            3   (WB AITC CM and psudo ally of INC)
Priyanka Gandhi 2
Arun Jaitley       2   (BJP Minister of Finance and de facto leader of anti-Modi faction in BJP)

Rahul Gandhi has closed the gap over the last couple of years


Of course do recall that in 2004 BJP PM Vajpayee was way more popular than Sonia Gandhi but the cycle of anti-incumbency and superior alliance strategies by Sonia Gandhi/INC actually defeated the BJP in an upset.  Modi, of course will try to prevent this by making the election "Presidential" by making it a "Modi vs Everyone else" battle.  In that sense recent developments where INC and other anti-BJP parties (SP BSP TDP) might help defuse that Modi narrative at the risk of splitting the anti-BJP vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #33 on: January 26, 2019, 10:11:51 AM »

News Nation poll for Rajasthan LS elections
       
        Seats   Vote share
BJP    16           40% (47% if filter out do not know)
INC     9           35% (41% if filter out do not know)


The C-voter survey a few days ago had it at

        Seats   Vote share
BJP    18           49.4%
INC     7           44.0%


So both polls are similar.  I generally do not buy it.  The trend has been the winner of the assembly election a year earlier then expands on their advantage in the assembly election so I would think the result should be something like INC 15 BJP 10.  Still I guess the entire BJP premise is that Modi is able to pull in an unusual size of marginal votes in Northern India.  I guess we will only know when the results come out.
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jaichind
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« Reply #34 on: January 27, 2019, 10:04:28 PM »

Thinking about the what Rahul Gandhi is up to when he played the Priyanka Gandhi card led me to think more big picture on what the goals of INC are.

The fact of the matter is that despite a good set of 2018 assembly election results the INC are still in an existential crisis.  The INC is structured in a way where it must be seen by its various factions as
a) led by a member of the Gandhi clan AND
b) is the natural party of governance 

The BJP landslide defeat of the INC followed by defeats of the INC in various assembly elections in the 2014-2017 period has called b) into question.  While the view in Southern India (Karntaka, AP, Kerela, TN and Telenagan) this year is that BJP might not and most likely will not come back to power, the view in Northern India is that the BJP led by Modi will come back to power.  If the BJP comes back with a strong Modi government, then various INC factions in Northern India will start to defect over to BJP en masse after the 2019.  As a result the INC goal this year is

a) Ensure that even if BJP emerges as the largest party and forms the government, it must be be seen as getting as setback and the government formed must appear weak AND
b) Ensure that the INC does well enough to be seen as the main alternative to BJP in 2024 or earlier when double anti-incumbency will drag down BJP and hand power back to INC

The fact of the matter is even as all the polls show the BJP now down to some 200s and even if we accept that they might even overestimate BJP in Northern India the BJP will have at worst 180 seats or not that much below that.  Just like projections now show INC at 100 seats.  Even if it does better it will not do THAT much better then that.  So the INC goal this year is to ensure that the BJP forms a weak government then to capture power themselves.  Rahul Gandhi also correctly figured that in 2019 he will not have earned spurs within INC to make a bid for power this year anyway.

In fact I think what is not talked about is that the fact that BJP's Nitin Gadkari who is the current BJP minister of transport now stands almost as much of a chance of being PM as Modi does.  I think the political talking heads seems to underestimate the resentment by various factions within BJP, RSS, and other NDA allies (or potential allies) toward Modi and that if BJP falls below 200 seats they will all come up to demand someone like Nitin Gadkari takes over.


I would say the odds of who will be PM after the 2019 elections are

Modi                 40%
Nitin Gadkari     40%
Other BJP leader 5% (Arun Jaitley, Rajnath Singh, etc etc)
Rahul Gandhi      5%
Other INC          5%
Third Front PM    5% (Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Chandrababu Naidu etc etc)

The reality is that with BJP at 180 or slightly below that at worst there is a fairly small chance of a non-BJP PM.  It really comes down to who it is.  For INC to survive they need BJP to do poor enough that Modi is most likely out as PM.  In fact if I am right about these media polls as overestimating BJP support in Northern India  then Modi's chances of coming back as PM might be more like 30% not 40%.

For Rahul Gandhi working to stop the BJP juggernaut fufills one condition for INC to survive but then he must demonstrate that the INC is a viable as a natural party of governance.   For that he has to show that INC is at least a top tier two party in UP and not one that is languishing in the single digit support.  This is where Priyanka Gandhi comes in.  Priyanka Gandhi has strong appeals to Upper Caste voters (most of which have shifted over to BJP over the years in UP) as Rahul Gandhi needs to play her as a card now to try to pull in some Upper Caste votes from the BJP and push INC support to at least low double digits in UP.

If so then this strategy is fraught with risk.  Is is true that there are some Upper Caste resentment toward the BJP over the last few years as BJP CM Yogi Adityanath seems to focus more on the non-Yadav OBC base of BJP.  But Upper Caste voters tend to very tactical.  For them to vote INC and risk letting in SP (Upper Caste voters are fairly negative on SP) they have to be sure that INC is on its route to revival in a seat by seeing some of the old INC Dalit and Muslim base shirt over to INC.  So the risk here is for INC to get the Upper Caste vote from the BJP it first has to make a pitch for the Dalit and Muslim votes from SP-BSP and in the process risk throwing the race to the BJP by splitting the anti-BJP vote if the Upper Caste vote does not dutifully defect.  I think the INC will have to play this in UP seat by seat and do its homework on the relative strength of INC vs SP-BSP to see if it worth its while to make a true bid to win by clawing Dalit-Muslim votes from SP-BSP and then deploying  Priyanka Gandhi  to fetch the Upper caste vote from the BJP. Where it cannot do this the INC might be better off running a second tier Upper Caste kamikaze candidate whose only job is to pick up a few small percentage of the vote, mostly from the BJP Upper Caste bloc but it will not be in large numbers and help the SP-BSP in a close race.   If the INC can try to be viable in about a dozen seats and then tactically help SP-BSP then this plan could work.   It is just high risk but I guess Rahul Gandhi figures he has no choice since not going for this optimal result risk the INC falling apart post 2019.
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jaichind
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« Reply #35 on: January 27, 2019, 10:28:34 PM »

A picture is worth a thousand words

I found this picture at the SP-BSP press conference a few days ago announcing formally the SP-BSP alliance quite interesting


First on both sides there are larger than life pictures of the current leaders of SP(Akhilesh Yadav) and BSP(Mayawati).  It is sort of comical that at a press conference with both these two leaders you still need larger than life pictures of both of them in the same room.  What is also interesting are the picture at the Far Top Left and Far Top Right of the room.  On the BSP side is Dalit icon Ambedkar who really founded the pro-Dalit RPI and not BSP but BSP claims his legacy. On the SP side is old Socialist icon Charan Singh who founded BLD and is the mother party of SP.  Akhilesh Yadav's father and founder of SP Mulayam Singh Yadav was a key sidekick of Charan Singh.

What is important here is that it is Charan Singh that is shown and NOT SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav who has been overthrown by Akhilesh Yadav in 2017 and has been kicked upstairs by his soon.  Of course Mulayam Singh Yadav has came out opposing the SP-BSP alliance but does not seems to any political strength to do anything about it. 

In the same vein BSP founder Kanshi Ram who is Mayawati's mentor is nowhere to be seen.  Part of the reason is that Mayawati has most purged the BSP of Kanshi Ram supporters since Kanshi Ram was kicked upstairs by Mayawati in the late 1990s before passing away.

This picture shows the that how both leaders want to monopolize current and recent past history of their parties and would only acknowledge founding leaders who very distant and could not be a threat to their power within their parties. 
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Lachi
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« Reply #36 on: January 29, 2019, 07:02:18 AM »

idk if there is a separate thread for the general election right now, but I wanted to share the first poll in a very, very long time that the INC is AHEAD in



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jaichind
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« Reply #37 on: January 29, 2019, 08:51:45 AM »

idk if there is a separate thread for the general election right now, but I wanted to share the first poll in a very, very long time that the INC is AHEAD in





Yeah, I posted that a few days ago
Generally anti-BJP Deccan Herald did a state by state back-of-the-envelope of each state for the LS election

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/will-narendra-modi-come-back-713960.html

And concluded that if BJP did not get SHS to join it in an alliance, even if INC failed to form an alliance with TDP in AP and AAP in Delhi that the INC+ will edge out BJP+ ~190 to ~170


The analysis seems to assume the the Modi magic is completely gone and BJP has to fight based on basic alliance fundamentals and the ebb-and-flow of anti-incumbency.  One should see this as a floor of the BJP+ bloc and cap of the INC+ bloc. 

It is really not a poll but a survey where Deccan Herald asks political correspondents in each state to give their assessment.  In many ways I am sympathetic to their views, especially in Northern India where poll seems to overestimate BJP, in my view, given the historical cycle of incumbency and anti-incumbency as well as recent assembly election results.  On the flip side, the polls are what they are and a lot of times when the only argument for something is "It cannot be" the answer is often: "It is."   

Anyway the key point here is that this is really not a poll but a projection based on ground reports.
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jaichind
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« Reply #38 on: January 29, 2019, 09:01:13 AM »

An example of how UP INC is trying to cash in on Priyanka Gandhi's Upper Caste appeal.  These posters are coming up in a good part UP where Upper Castes are more numerous.



Note the comparison of Priyanka Gandhi to her grandmother Indira Gandhi and that her picture is more prominent than INC leader and her brother Rahul Gandhi.  And of course there is the religious appeal with Hindu deity mixed in as well.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #39 on: January 30, 2019, 06:58:35 PM »

George Fernandes has died.
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jaichind
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« Reply #40 on: January 30, 2019, 10:21:28 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2019, 07:18:34 AM by jaichind »

Times Now-VMR poll has it at NDA around 20 seats short of majority

           Seats    Vote share
NDA     252          38.7%
UPA      146          32.6%
Others  145          28.7%

With pro-NDA parties like YSRCP at 23 seats, TRS at 10 seats, and AIADMK at 4 seats this sort of result should give an NDA government.  And with BJP at 215 seats and INC at 96 seats BJP does just well enough for Modi to retain the PM position.


I think what should worry Modi about this poll is that even after taking into account of a BJP-SHS alliance and a Modi wave in Northern India NDA is still short of majority by 20 some seats and will need the help of the likes of YSRCP and TRS.

Key state results are

Maharashtra
           Seats    Vote share
NDA      43         53.5%
UPA        5         40.0%

Which is mostly a repeat of 2014.  I find this hard to believe with the war of words between BJP and SHS currently and likely anti-incumbency.  At this it is not certain that BJP and SHS will form an alliance but most likely they will or else they will hang seperately


Gujarat
           Seats    Vote share
NDA      24         52.1%      
UPA        2          39.5%      

Again, even if we factor in the Modi favorite son factor this seems to overestimate  BJP.  I think the BJP vote share seems right but the INC vote share should be in the mid 40s.


Bihar
          Seats    
NDA     25     (cannot find vote share)
UPA     15

Seems about right.  It might end up being a bit better than this for NDA.


Jharkhand
           Seats    Vote share
NDA       6          38.0%      
UPA       8           47.3%      

Seems about right in terms of seat count. UPA vote share seems too high.  Still this confirms that INC-JMM-JVM-RJD is a powerful combination.


Orissa
           Seats    Vote share
NDA     40,7%      13
UPA      17.4%       0
BJD      36.3%       8

INC vote share seems about right.  Surprised at how high BJP is but it is totally possible that anti-incumbency has caught up with it.


WB
           Seats    Vote share
NDA        9         29.5%      
UPA        1           9.5%      
AITC     32          37.9%    
Left        0          20.0%      

Seems about right.  If anything I think the Left front vote share might be too high and if so the BJP seat share might be even higher.  This state will eventually become a bipolar battle between AITC vs BJP.


Assam
            Seats  (cannot find vote share)
NDA         8  
UPA          3
AIUDF      2
AGP         0
OTH         1 (I assume it will be the independent from Kokrajhar)

Looks mostly right if the Ahom vote is split between AGP and INC and the Muslim vote is split between INC and AIUDF as the BJP sweeps the non-Ahom (especially Bengali) Hindu votes given the BJP push for the new citizenship law.  Of course if the anti-BJP vote consolidate behind INC then it will be a lot closer.


Kerala

           Seats    Vote share
NDA       1            22.0%      
UPA      16            38.9%    
Left        3            26.0%      

Wow, the NDA vote share is a shock.   This most likely have to do with the  Sabarimala  case where the Left front government push for the Supreme Court to rule that the  Sabarimala  temple could not exclude women has  triggered a pro-Hindu wave to protect its traditions and that seems to have hit the Left Front and gained votes for NDA but produced seats for UPA.


AP
           Seats    Vote share
NDA       0             4.8%      
UPA        0            2.5%      
YSRCP   23          49.5%    
TDP        2           36.0%    

It is clear that YSRCP will make large gains and will win and most likely by a large margin.  Not sure it will be this large but totally possible.


Telengana
          Seats    Vote share
NDA        1         17.4%
UPA         5         33.0%
TRS       10         41.2%
AIMIM     1

Seems to make sense.  I suspect TRS might do a bit better than this but perhaps in an national election INC and BJP will do relatively better.


Karnataka
             Seats   Vote share
NDA        14         46.1%
UPA         14         46.8%
BSP          0           2.2%

It seems to me INC-JD(S) should do better than this but it could be their votes do not transfer well leading to a tie with BJP.  Also I think BSP might run in the INC-JD(S) alliance.


TN
           Seats    Vote share
NDA        0               2.3%    
UPA       35             50.4%      
AIADMK   4             33.5%

Seat breakdown seems to make sense.  I think DMK-INC-MDMK and AIADMK vote share are too high as AMMK PMK and DMDK will run separately and get a good bloc of votes.


UP
           Seats    Vote share
NDA       27            38.9%    
UPA         2             12.5%      
SP-BSP   51            40.3%    

Looks generally right assuming SP-BSP can transfer their vote bases to each other and have some tactical alliances with INC.


MP
           Seats    Vote share
NDA       23            45.1%    
UPA         6            39.5%      
BSP         0               3.1%  

Well, assuming a Modi wave hits Northern India I guess this will be the results.


Rajasthan
           Seats    Vote share
NDA       18            47.6%    
UPA         7            45.4%  

I guess these results make sense at least in terms of vote share but the vote share to seat share translation does not make sense.  Also sort of like MP this assumes there is a Modi wave in Northern India.


Chhattisgarh
           Seats    Vote share
NDA        5            45.6%    
UPA         6            48.1%
BSP         0             4.0%

I guess just like the others these results make sense if there is a Modi wave in Northern India.
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jaichind
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« Reply #41 on: January 31, 2019, 08:31:15 AM »


What I remember most about George Fernandes was the events of 1979.  He was instrumental in breaking up JNP by insisting that all JNP party members cannot have dual membership in another organization.  That demand was pretty much looking to drive ex-BJS members (proto-BJP) out of JNP.  Eventually that proposal was turned down but i created a clear break between JNP members with Socialist background and those of BJS background. 

As the JNP government fell in 1979 as the result of the JNP(S) split George Fernandes gave a passionate and effective defense of the JNP government in response to a No Confidence motion moved by the INC (the non-Indira Gandhi faction as the Indira Gandhi's INC was called INC(I)).  But right after the speech George Fernandes along with the JNP members of Socialist background decided to split from JNP creating JNP(S) and withdraw support from the JNP government.

Years later it was the same George Fernandes that along with Nitish Kumar formed SAP in 1994 splitting from JD and then eventually formed the basis of JD(U) and entered into an alliance with BJP.  By this time George Fernandes had shifted Right on all sorts of issues anyway but it is ironic that the most anti-BJS element in 1979 JNP then ended up being a key ally of BJP.

I actually meet George Fernandes's son years ago.  It seems his son was and I assume is still an investment banker in NYC.  I meet him in a business meeting around ten years ago.  He was around the same age I am and clearly had a sharp mind and was clearly a rising superstar at his top tier investment bank.   I did not know his background at that time and only learned of it on a fluke years later.  I can tell he was a pretty cutthroat type of guy and you had to be to get to where he was at that age.  It is just ironic that a youth labor socialist activist George Fernandes would have a son that moved into a top investment banking position in the capital of capitalism.   
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bigic
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« Reply #42 on: January 31, 2019, 10:53:08 AM »

An example of how UP INC is trying to cash in on Priyanka Gandhi's Upper Caste appeal.  These posters are coming up in a good part UP where Upper Castes are more numerous.



Note the comparison of Priyanka Gandhi to her grandmother Indira Gandhi and that her picture is more prominent than INC leader and her brother Rahul Gandhi.  And of course there is the religious appeal with Hindu deity mixed in as well.

I guess they didn't spend a lot of money on graphic design...
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jaichind
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« Reply #43 on: January 31, 2019, 11:24:34 AM »

I guess they didn't spend a lot of money on graphic design...

What they have is pretty much the standard as far as Indian political posters are concerned. 

Here is a BJP one


Funny ones I have seen in the past are

A AIADMK poster Photoshoped to show world leader praising AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha (who passed away a couple of years ago)



Sonia Gandhi as a Hindu goddess (I think Durga goddess of war)


Hindu nationalist Hindu Sena was smart enough to get on the Trump bandwagon in Summer of 2016 when it did not seem he would win.
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #44 on: February 03, 2019, 10:18:09 PM »

AIADMK to seal poll pact with BJP, may contest in 24 Lok Sabha seats

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/fates-intertwined-aiadmk-bjp-are-partners-without-choice/articleshow/67823575.cms

Rumored seat sharing would be something like

AIADMK     25
BJP             8
PMK           3 or 4
DMDK         3
PT               1



Not clear if PMK or DMDK will actually join this alliance but they might have to in order to stop the DMK-INC-MDMK juggernaut.  Of course if AMMK runs separately and  splits the AIADMK vote this alliance will still be defeated by the DMK lead bloc.
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jaichind
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« Reply #45 on: February 05, 2019, 08:39:10 AM »

Likely going to be the Kiss of Death for the AIADMK. I dont think there is anywhere where Modis "Hindi-Hindu-Hindustan" is more reviled than in Tamil Nadu.
Not that the BJP brand is necessarily a death blow (see Vajpayee in 1999) in Tamil Nadu, but Modis rabid Hindu Nationalism and Centralism is.

The BJP brand was never that great in TN given its image as a Hindi party.  BJP's fortunes in TN tends to be linked to the DMK-AIADMK cycle.  When the BJP is allied with the rising tide of its ally (be it AIADMK or DMK) it does well (1999) when it is not then it does poorly (2004.)  Note that Vajpayee 2004 did not stop a wipe-out in TN but that had not much to do with Vajpayee  but BJP allying itself with AIADMK when AIADMK alienated all political players in TN and was facing anti-incumbency.

I think AIADMK prefers not to be allied with BJP given the poor brand of BJP in TN.   But it seems that AIADMK feels it needs the protection of Modi/BJP on the assumption that BJP will return to power after the 2019 election especially when many key AIADMK politicians are under investigation for corruption.   AIADMK's plan is to run separately from BJP but support BJP after the 2019  LS elections.  It seems BJP a) needs more seats and b)wants to reverse the national narrative of BJP losing allies by getting a AIADMK-BJP alliance in the headlines.

A lot will depend on how AIADMK reads the dynamic of AMMK, a AIADMK-BJP alliance will push AMMK to make a more anti-BJP stance which could end up splitting the anti-BJP vote with DMK-INC.  Of course the inverse risk is that in districts where BJP will be given seats it is a great chance for AMMK to just scoop up the AIADMK organisation.  AIADMK's main goal seems to be to somehow prevent the AMMK from being seen as an alternative to AIADMK to the Jayalalitha legacy since winning 2019 LS election is pretty much out of the question.  It will be a DMK-INC sweep, the only question is how large.
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jaichind
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« Reply #46 on: February 05, 2019, 11:37:55 AM »

It seems in Bihar, unlike UP, the INC revival is pretty real.  After the INC won 3 assembly elections in Northern India back in late 2018, a good number of political "free agents" seems to migrating toward joining INC.  This only adds to the problems of seat sharing in the RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP-CPI alliance.  This is so for two reasons
a) A good number of prominent politicians joining INC would both increase INC's bargaining power as well as INC demands since INC will have to accommodate these various kin pings that want to join INC.
b) Most of these "free agents" are Upper Caste BJP or JD(U) rebels as well as RJD rebels.  Both types are a problem for RJD.  The entire RJD strategy now is a Dalit-Yadav-Muslim consolidation and to paint the BJP-JD(U)-LJP alliance as a front for Upper Caste rule.  INC having a large number of Upper Caste leaders and candidates throws a wrench into that narrative.  Of course INC harboring  RJD rebels  is a problem for RJD.

If as a result INC-RJD talks break down and JD(U) sense that BJP might not do well in 2019 it could go from: BJP-JD(U)-LJP vs RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP-CPI to a massive U-turn for both INC and JD(U)  BJD-LJP vs RJD-RLSP-HAM-VIP-CPI-BSP vs JD(U)-INC.  In many ways this will be a lot worse for BJP since RJD-RLSP-HAM-VIP-CPI-BSP will then focus on  Dalit-Yadav-Muslim while JD(U)-INC will target Upper Caste votes that BJP was counting on.  This is unlikely but still possible.  Nitish Kumar of JD(U) has shown to be very opportunistic and if he sees BJP running into trouble in 2019 LS elections could jump ship and back stab BJP just like he back stabbed  RJD back in 2017.
 
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Computer89
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« Reply #47 on: February 05, 2019, 12:30:03 PM »

If the BJP loses in 2019 , Modi will have blown a historic opportunity and will be handing India off to a leader who would make Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau look competent and smart .

I wish Modi went down the Reagan/Thatcher path instead of the more populist right wing path . Now is Modi still better than Rahul , yes and it’s not even close but even if he wins he may have blown a historic opportunity.

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jaichind
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« Reply #48 on: February 05, 2019, 01:43:07 PM »

If the BJP loses in 2019 , Modi will have blown a historic opportunity and will be handing India off to a leader who would make Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau look competent and smart .

I wish Modi went down the Reagan/Thatcher path instead of the more populist right wing path . Now is Modi still better than Rahul , yes and it’s not even close but even if he wins he may have blown a historic opportunity.


Speaking of populist schemes this seems to be the timeline of the BJP-INC escalation of populist schemes
1) In 2017 UP assembly election BJP wins landslide after promising farmer loan waver.  INC comes to power in Punjab in the same election based on promise for massive power subsides (in some cases free) for farmers
2) in 2018 assembly elections INC promises farmer loan waver for MP Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh assembly elections which results in INC victory  in all 3
3) Fearful that the BJP will come up with a bunch of populist schemes in the 2019 interim budget, Rahul Gandhi announces a "basic minimum income" if INC is voted to power
4) BJP came out with  interim budget with all sorts of tax cuts (mostly directed at middle class) and direct cash payments for farmers.  Of course this is on top of the BJP scheme of extra 10% quota for government and educational slots for Upper caste lower income population

So basically this election will just be a competition of various "Free Free Free !!" promises.  Frankly there are no plans to grow the manufacturing sector which is the true solution to farmer distress by increasing the amount of land farmed per farmer via urban migration.

I always suspected this is where we will end up with Modi even back in 2014.  He was a good administrator in Gujarat but most neoliberal schemes he kept on talking about were mostly talk.    I would totally back the politics that Modi talks about but I know what his actions really are.

Now there is a new scandal where the Modi regime might be holding back unemployment numbers on purpose since they show record high unemployment.  I think demonetization of 2016-2017 is the real original sin of the Modi government.  Demonetization did not work as BJP claimed.  It did not get rid of black money, it did not move India to a cashless economy, and I doubt it really increased the size of the formal sector.  But it did destroy a good part of the informal sector and shifted resources from small informal enterprises to large formal enterprises.
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jaichind
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« Reply #49 on: February 07, 2019, 09:23:28 AM »

Just to be clear the chances of BJP "losing" this election is fairly remote.  There is a very low chance of NDA winning a majority on its own (especially if SHS does not ally with BJP) and there is a very low chance of the INC doing well enough that a government based on INC is formed.  At this stage the choices before us are a BJP government led by Modi (BJP needs a few allies for majority) or a BJP government led by Nitin Gadkari (BJP leeds a lot of allies for a majority.)
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