Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[buritobr]

Poll Idea Data Presidential Election 2022

If Lula runs
Jair Bolsonaro (right) 34.5%
Lula (left) 22.3%
Sergio Moro (right) 11.3%
Ciro Gomes (left) 8.8%
João Doria (right) 3.6%
Luiz Mandetta (right) 3.4%
Alexandre Khalil (right) 2.7%
João Amoedo (right) 2.5%
Marina Silva (left) 2.0%
Luciano Huck (right) 1.9%
Flavio Dino (left) 1.4%

If Lula doesn't run
Jair Bolsonaro 34.4%
Fernando Haddad (left) 13.4%
Ciro Gomes 11.6%
Sergio Moro 11.6%
Luiz Mandetta 4.8%
João Doria 4.3%
Flavio Dino 3.2%
Luciano Huck 2.9%
Alexandre Khalil 2.8%
João Amoedo 2.5%
Marina Silva 2.3%

Runoff
Haddad 42.0%, Bolsonaro 38.0%
Lula 40.9%, Bolsonaro 37.8%
Ciro Gomes 41.1%, Bolsonaro 38.9%
João Doria 34.3%, Bolsonaro 39.3%
Luciano Hick 34.1%, Bolsonaro 39.4%

[RodPresident]

This week was very intense in Brasilia after pro-Bolsonaro congressman Daniel Silveira (PSL-RJ) was arrested by order of Supreme Court minister Alexandre de Moraes. Silveira made attacks against Supreme Court and threats to ministers of that court. Supreme Court confirmed prison by unanimity and Chamber validated it last Friday by 364-130 votes, even from supporters. Silveira was the last elected in PSL coligation (open list) thanks to votes given to Helio Uncle Tom Lopes, and got known for breaking a street plate with name of Councilwoman Marielle Franco, murdered 3 years ago, at campaign last week. He's a former policeman who was office-detained more than 80 times and known for his violent loyalty to Bolsonaro family.

[Red Velvet]

Brazilian Liberals are a complete joke lmao.

They elected Bolsonaro because of his pro-market economic promises and now he fired the director of Petrobras to put a general in charge.

This happened after previous director elevated gasoline prices, which has the potential of angering truck drivers and stimulating a new strike. That’s one of the main reasons for the change, Bolsonaro is scared of public manifests weakening his re-election chances.

The general has already declared: “You can’t worry only about profit”. Opposed to the neoliberal government of Pinochet in Chile, Brazilian military has always been somewhat more interventionist in the economy, even during the dictatorship.

That’s why the Liberal elites alliance with the all the different conservative sectors (including the military but going all the way to the fundamentalist Christians) to elect this fascist wannabe is hilarious. They are really acting betrayed by a guy who was always a parasite of the State and public money. Some still in denial though.

I mean, these people continuously sh**t and scaremonger about Venezuela and yet they helped more than the ones they criticize to make us closer to a “Venezuela” with all these military crooks in positions of power and the militarization of the State. Reminds a lot of Maduro giving the power of PDVSA to Venezuelan generals.

Serves them right. Hope they’re proud of their part in destroying the country because this is something we’ll always bring to shove in their faces, just like the dictatorship.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Brazilian Liberals are a complete joke lmao.

They elected Bolsonaro because of his pro-market economic promises and now he fired the director of Petrobras to put a general in charge.

This happened after previous director elevated gasoline prices, which has the potential of angering truck drivers and stimulating a new strike. That’s one of the main reasons for the change, Bolsonaro is scared of public manifests weakening his re-election chances.

The general has already declared: “You can’t worry only about profit”. Opposed to the neoliberal government of Pinochet in Chile, Brazilian military has always been somewhat more interventionist in the economy, even during the dictatorship.

That’s why the Liberal elites alliance with the all the different conservative sectors (including the military but going all the way to the fundamentalist Christians) to elect this fascist wannabe is hilarious. They are really acting betrayed by a guy who was always a parasite of the State and public money. Some still in denial though.

I mean, these people continuously sh**t and scaremonger about Venezuela and yet they helped more than the ones they criticize to make us closer to a “Venezuela” with all these military crooks in positions of power and the militarization of the State. Reminds a lot of Maduro giving the power of PDVSA to Venezuelan generals.

Serves them right. Hope they’re proud of their part in destroying the country because this is something we’ll always bring to shove in their faces, just like the dictatorship.

Brazilian Liberals are very very liberal. As in, they very liberally focus purely on enriching themselves to the exclusion of all other things.

[buritobr]

The expectation of a keynesian shift was short lived. Bolsonaro changed the president of Petrobras in order to reduce the price of the fuels because he wants to keep the support of the truck drivers. But the rest of the Chicago policies continue: the representatives and senators of his base are trying to approve an amnendment in order to end the floor of share of the budget to education and health. This floor was established by the Constitution of 1988. The plan to privatize the post office is still alive.

[CumbrianLefty]

The expectation of a keynesian shift was short lived. Bolsonaro changed the president of Petrobras in order to reduce the price of the fuels because he wants to keep the support of the truck drivers. But the rest of the Chicago policies continue: the representatives and senators of his base are trying to approve an amnendment in order to end the floor of share of the budget to education and health. This floor was established by the Constitution of 1988. The plan to privatize the post office is still alive.

I mean, is this sort of thing actually *popular*?

Or is he just very good at disguising it with culture war stuff??

[buritobr]

The expectation of a keynesian shift was short lived. Bolsonaro changed the president of Petrobras in order to reduce the price of the fuels because he wants to keep the support of the truck drivers. But the rest of the Chicago policies continue: the representatives and senators of his base are trying to approve an amnendment in order to end the floor of share of the budget to education and health. This floor was established by the Constitution of 1988. The plan to privatize the post office is still alive.

I mean, is this sort of thing actually *popular*?

Or is he just very good at disguising it with culture war stuff??

Bolsonaro is not more popular than other elected presidents in the middle of the first term.

Jair Bolsonaro in early 2021 has higher approval rate than Fernando Collor de Mello had in early 1992. But he has lower approval rate than Fernando Henrique Cardoso had in early 1997, lower approval rate than Luís Inácio Lula da Silva had in early 2005, lower approval rate than Dilma Rousseff had in early 2013.

[Red Velvet]

The expectation of a keynesian shift was short lived. Bolsonaro changed the president of Petrobras in order to reduce the price of the fuels because he wants to keep the support of the truck drivers. But the rest of the Chicago policies continue: the representatives and senators of his base are trying to approve an amnendment in order to end the floor of share of the budget to education and health. This floor was established by the Constitution of 1988. The plan to privatize the post office is still alive.

I mean, is this sort of thing actually *popular*?

Or is he just very good at disguising it with culture war stuff??

As Burito pointed out, I think Brazilians just tend to give presidents a chance in their first term, unless they feel their consumer power is going drastically down. But even then, Bolsonaro is less popular than past presidents (FHC, Lula, Dilma) at the same point, he’s only above Collor.

Collor is the exception because he angered the elites that elected him by freezing people’s savings in the bank. Bolsonaro slightly lost support from the elites but they still kinda have his back because well, they have nowhere else to go lmao.

Bolsonaro isn’t a Chicago Boy at heart, he’s an interventionist who has to suck up to the agenda of economical elites because without them he’s not getting re-elected. But at the same time he wants to grow with low income voters so sometimes he shows his interventionist face (like in the Petrobras director thing, in order to make gas consumers happy with more price control). He is trying to balance two different positions and make everyone somewhat satisfied in order to boost his 2022 chances.

The risk of it is that trying to make everyone satisfied can have the exact opposite effect and all sides turn against you. But if he succeeds, it’s great for him. He knows he cannot rely with just one type of demographic anymore.

Besides, 2018 elections were the most polarized (along with 2014) we’ve had. There are a significant amount of people who may not really approve his government but will never admit it so soon after cutting ties with family members, etc.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Poll Paraná Pesquisas Presidential Election 2022

 February 25th -  March 1st 2021

Scenario 1 (the most probable)

Jair Bolsonaro (no party - far-right - authoritarianism, neofascism, traditionalism, economic liberalism, ultranationalism)                                                       

31,9%

Sérgio Moro (no party - center-right to right-wing - social conservatism, anti-corruption, economic liberalism)                                 

11,5%

Fernando Haddad (Worker's Party - PT - left-wing - democratic socialism, marxism, lulism)                                 

10,5%

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT -center-left - social democracy, nationalism) 
                                                                                                                             
10%

Luciano Huck (no party - center to center-right - Third Way, liberalism, social liberalism, economic liberalism)

8%

João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party  - PSDB - center to center-right - Third Way, economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, social conservatism)

5,3%

Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party - PSOL - left-wing to far-left - democratic socialism, anti-capitalism, LGBT rights, cannabis legalization)

3,2%

João Amoêdo (New Party - NOVO - center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, social conservatism, fiscal conservatism)

2,8%

don't know and didn't answer 4,3%

Blank, null, nobody 12,5%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Poll Paraná Pesquisas Presidential Election 2022

Scenario 2 (without Huck)

February 25th to March 1st

Jair Bolsonaro (no party - far-right - authoritarianism, neofascism, traditionalism, economic liberalism, ultranationalism)

33,9%

Sérgio Moro (no party - center-right to right-wing - social conservatism, anti-corruption, economic liberalism)  

12,3%

Fernando Haddad (Worker´s Party - PT - left-wing - democratic socialism, marxism, lulism)

11,8%

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT -center-left - social democracy, nationalism)

10,7%

João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party  - PSDB - center to center-right - Third Way, economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, social conservatism)

6,3%

Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party - PSOL - left-wing to far-left - democratic socialism, anti-capitalism, LGBT rights, cannabis legalization)

3,2%

João Amoêdo (New Party - NOVO - center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, social conservatism, fiscal conservatism)

3,2%

dk/da

4,9%

Blank, null, nobody

13,7%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Poll Paraná Pesquisas Presidential Election 2022

Scenario 3 (with Eduardo Leite)

February 25th to March 1st

Jair Bolsonaro (no party - far-right - authoritarianism, neofascism, traditionalism, economic liberalism, ultranationalism)

32,4%

Sérgio Moro (no party - center-right to right-wing - social conservatism, anti-corruption, economic liberalism)

12%

Fernando Haddad (Worker´s Party - PT - left-wing - democratic socialism, marxism, lulism)

10,8%

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT -center-left - social democracy, nationalism)

10,3%

Luciano Huck (no party - center to center-right - Third Way, liberalism, social liberalism, economic liberalism)

8,7%

Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party - PSOL - left-wing to far-left - democratic socialism, anti-capitalism, LGBT rights, cannabis legalization)

3,2%

João Amoêdo (New Party - NOVO - center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, social conservatism, fiscal conservatism)

3%

Eduardo Leite (Brazilian Social Democracy Party  - PSDB - center to center-right - Third Way, economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, social conservatism)

2,3%

dk/da

4,5%

Blank, null, nobody

12,7%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Poll Paraná Pesquisas Presidential Election 2022

Scenario 4 (with Luiz Inácio da Silva - Lula and Luiz Henrique Mandetta)

February 25th to March 1st

Jair Bolsonaro (no party - far-right - authoritarianism, neofascism, traditionalism, economic liberalism, ultranationalism)

32,2%

Lula (Worker's Party - PT - left-wing - democratic socialism, marxism, lulism)

18%

Sérgio Moro (no party - center-right to right-wing - social conservatism, anti-corruption, economic liberalism)

11,6%

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT -center-left - social democracy, nationalism)

8,7%

João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party  - PSDB - center to center-right - Third Way, economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, social conservatism)

5,3%

Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party - PSOL - left-wing to far-left - democratic socialism, anti-capitalism, LGBT rights, cannabis legalization)

3,5%

João Amoêdo (New Party - NOVO - center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, social conservatism, fiscal conservatism)

3%

Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM - center-right - social conservatism, economic liberalism)

1,4%

dk/da

4,3%

blank/null/nobody

12%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Poll Paraná Pesquisas Presidential Election 2022

Scenario 5 (the last scenario  without Moro, Huck and Boulos)

Jair Bolsonaro (no party - far-right - authoritarianism, neofascism, traditionalism, economic liberalism, ultranationalism)

37,6%

Fernando Haddad (Worker's Party - PT - left-wing - democratic socialism, marxism, lulism)

14,3%

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT -center-left - social democracy, nationalism)

13%

João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party  - PSDB - center to center-right - Third Way, economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, social conservatism)

6,9%

João Amoêdo (New Party - NOVO - center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, social conservatism, fiscal conservatism)

3,9%

Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM - center-right - social conservatism, economic liberalism)

2,7%

dk/da

6%

blank/null/nobody

15,5%

[Red Velvet]

The 5 polled scenarios already posted. It’s becoming unlikely that a center-right option can gain form with Bolsonaro having such strong support from that electorate. PSDB is the biggest chance but they’re behind both Ciro and PT.

Moro will not run, even got a job outside the country to run away from judicial consequences, so scenario 5 is the one to watch (but maybe with Luciano Huck in it).

[buritobr]

Paraná Pesquisas usually overrates the right. I remember the poll in the runoff of 2014, in which Aécio Neves was double digit ahead of Dilma Rousseff.

[Red Velvet]

BREAKING NEWS

Minister Fachin from the Brazilian Supreme Court has nullified all condemnations against Lula that were issued by Sérgio Moro.

With that, Lula is electable again and is allowed to run in 2022. The legal “scam” by Moro has been reverted, Lula is now an innocent man to the law.

Still unclear whether Moro will respond criminally for his actions or not. He hid evidence that favored Lula and only leaked information that favored his condemnation.

Moro’s downfall started last year with the release of hacked messages of his telegram account, evidencing the lack of professionalism and the bias in the process. They were released by The Intercept Brasil after the hacker sent the material to journalist Glenn Greenwald.

The imprisonment of Lula prevented him to run in 2018 and opened the door for the election of Bolsonaro, putting the country into the claws of fascism.

Stay tuned for more developments.

[buritobr]

BREAKING NEWS

Minister Fachin from the Brazilian Supreme Court has nullified all condemnations against Lula that were issued by Sérgio Moro.

With that, Lula is electable again and is allowed to run in 2022. The legal “scam” by Moro has been reverted, Lula is now an innocent man to the law.

Still unclear whether Moro will respond criminally for his actions or not. He hid evidence that favored Lula and only leaked information that favored his condemnation.

Moro’s downfall started last year with the release of hacked messages of his telegram account, evidencing the lack of professionalism and the bias in the process. They were released by The Intercept Brasil after the hacker sent the material to journalist Glenn Greenwald.

The imprisonment of Lula prevented him to run in 2018 and opened the door for the election of Bolsonaro, putting the country into the claws of fascism.

Stay tuned for more developments.

Although I think better Lula not run, it is a very good news Lula has his political rights again!

[Red Velvet]

BREAKING NEWS

Minister Fachin from the Brazilian Supreme Court has nullified all condemnations against Lula that were issued by Sérgio Moro.

With that, Lula is electable again and is allowed to run in 2022. The legal “scam” by Moro has been reverted, Lula is now an innocent man to the law.

Still unclear whether Moro will respond criminally for his actions or not. He hid evidence that favored Lula and only leaked information that favored his condemnation.

Moro’s downfall started last year with the release of hacked messages of his telegram account, evidencing the lack of professionalism and the bias in the process. They were released by The Intercept Brasil after the hacker sent the material to journalist Glenn Greenwald.

The imprisonment of Lula prevented him to run in 2018 and opened the door for the election of Bolsonaro, putting the country into the claws of fascism.

Stay tuned for more developments.

Although I think better Lula not run, it is a very good news Lula has his political rights again!

I think if PT will participate, it better be the real thing than the uncharismatic paper board replacement.

So Lula should run imo. I’m not voting for him in the 1st round anyway but I would be voting for him easily in a runoff against Bolsonaro, which wouldn’t be the case with Haddad.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BREAKING NEWS

Minister Fachin from the Brazilian Supreme Court has nullified all condemnations against Lula that were issued by Sérgio Moro.

With that, Lula is electable again and is allowed to run in 2022. The legal “scam” by Moro has been reverted, Lula is now an innocent man to the law.

Still unclear whether Moro will respond criminally for his actions or not. He hid evidence that favored Lula and only leaked information that favored his condemnation.

Moro’s downfall started last year with the release of hacked messages of his telegram account, evidencing the lack of professionalism and the bias in the process. They were released by The Intercept Brasil after the hacker sent the material to journalist Glenn Greenwald.

The imprisonment of Lula prevented him to run in 2018 and opened the door for the election of Bolsonaro, putting the country into the claws of fascism.

Stay tuned for more developments.

Obrigado, Brazil Supreme Court! This is wonderful news!

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, this has to be good news. The main slight worry has to be that Lula is now 75, so would he be able to campaign as energetically as in the past?

[Red Velvet]

Yes, this has to be good news. The main slight worry has to be that Lula is now 75, so would he be able to campaign as energetically as in the past?

Not really as much as in the past, so much that he doesn’t put himself on the spotlight as much. I don’t really see why he should want to be president again other than his ego.

But he’s still rather active (more than say, a Joe Biden) and benefits from being a previous president who was very popular, left office with 86% approval in 2010 after all.

Prices and cost of living are increasingly higher for Brazilians nowadays and there’s a slow but growing sense of nostalgia to the 00s when everything was cheap and consumer acquisition power was high. That could benefit him, but it’s important to remember he is still much weakened in regards the public opinion compared to the past because of the effects of car-wash.

I remember in very early 2010s when the main complaints about the country (because you always gotta have something to complain) were some rich and upper middle class people complaining airports were becoming bus stations because how many more people were traveling abroad for vacations, which was always a synonym of status to them.

To think how far thing have fallen so hard in just a decade mostly because of greed... For some elite sectors it’s way more important for the poor to stay forever poor than it is for themselves to get richer. The status is everything, post modern aristocracy.

[President Johnson]

What chance would Lula stand against Bolsonaro, if he's able to run? I'm not a huge fan of Lula, but he would be a massive improvement over the fascist who needs to be voted out next year.

[buritobr]

Lula told that there is a possibility he runs, but he also told that he is not sure. Even if he became allowed to run, it is not sure he will run. Fernando Haddad is still considered an alternative.
Considering the age, Lula told that it is not a big problem, and he compared himself to Joe Biden.

[buritobr]

For those who understands Portuguese, there is Lula's interview for El País, in which he discusses all there questions https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2021-03-08/lula-falta-que-a-gente-tenha-uma-proxima-eleicao-para-medirmos-forca-na-urna-com-bolsonaro.html

[buritobr]

Polls show that Lula is the one in the opposition who performs better. He is doing better than other left-wing potential candidates and also better than "centrists" (non-Bolsonaro right-wing candidates according to the media).