Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[Red Velvet]

Was there a runoff result in this poll?

Yes. Lula 49%, Bolsonaro 34%

post 500

In São Paulo State Lula has +15 lead overall???

It’s over, do we really have to wait a whole year in purgatory limbo in order to get this over with? São Paulo is a heavy PSDB state and people from the interior cities (not the capital) are very anti-PT. So much that since the return from democracy, the only time ever PT won presidential vote in São Paulo happened on 2002 but that’s when all the states except Alagoas voted for Lula anyways.

Even if the vote was tied in São Paulo, or with a low Bolsonaro lead, it would be indication of an easy Lula victory since the Northeast always goes heavily to him post-2002.

PSDB has also won every Governor election in São Paulo since 1994. But it looks like they have good chance of losing next year. Haddad, Márcio França, Boulos, Alckmin (Now outside PSDB, he could join PSD) are high profile names who will run and have good potential of votes. Who will even run for PSDB there, since Doria is hated there and will likely run for president instead anyways?

Honestly, even if Haddad is currently leading the polls there, I think Alckmin in PSD has better chance of winning once the campaign really starts. PSDB in São Paulo always takes off later because people aren’t necessarily PSDB partisans, they just default to it as the election date gets near because they prefer it to other available options and think they’re competent enough. In 2022 I think it will be Alckmin in PSD who will benefit from this more than whoever runs for PSDB.

[buritobr]

Not all brazilians agree with all this sh**t Bolsonaro spoke at the UN Assembly. He had "only" 55% of the valid vote in 2018.

Not everyone who voted for him agree with everything he says. Even though voting for him even not agreeing with everything he says is still a stupid decision.

[Red Velvet]

Well, at least around 15% more or less agree! And they tend to be very loud, unfortunately. And there are even more people, which even if they don’t agree, are complicit considering the vote intention Bozo still has!

Last Datafolha runoff poll per Region (only valid votes):

Southeast
Lula 59,5% vs Bolsonaro 40,5% (Lula +19,0)

Northeast
Lula 78,7% vs Bolsonaro 21,3% (Lula +57,4)

South
Lula 56,3% vs Bolsonaro 43,7% (Lula +12,6)

North + Midwest
Lula 60,9% vs Bolsonaro 39,1% (Lula +21,8)
——————————————————————
OVERALL average
Lula 64,4% vs Bolsonaro 35,6% (Lula +28,8)

As expected, Northeast is elevating the overall Margin victory to extreme high levels. But in all regions we’re seeing this massive PT gain over Bozo, considering that the only region Haddad won in 2018 was the Northeast. Now the current projection is that PT wins in all of them.

To evidence the drastic shift, here are the 2018 Results per region (only valid votes):

Southeast
Haddad 34,6% vs Bolsonaro 65,4% (Bolsonaro +30,8)

Northeast
Haddad 69,7% vs Bolsonaro 30,3% (Haddad +39,4)

South
Haddad 31,7% vs Bolsonaro 68,3% (Bolsonaro +36,6)

Midwest
Haddad 33,5% vs Bolsonaro 66,5% (Bolsonaro +33,0)

North
Haddad 48,1% vs Bolsonaro 51,9% (Bolsonaro +3,8)
——————————————————————
OVERALL average
Haddad 44,9% vs Bolsonaro 55,1% (Bolsonaro +10,2)

If we ignore the null/blank votes, that indicates that something like 24,9% of people overall are Bolsonaro 2018-Lula 2022 voters in Southeast; 9,0% in the Northeast and 24,6% in the South! Polarization definitely isn’t as strong as compared to some outside places and it isn’t due to multi-party options, as these people are voting for the party they voted against in 2018, which was PT!

[Red Velvet]

https://www.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1440835749511761921?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

Congrats PSDB for the 2% and being outside a top 5 in a presidential election scenario 

And that’s because Bolsonaro is getting unpopular and losing votes… These people are simply not getting back to PSDB.

To be fair, it’s not assured Moro or Datena will really run (I doubt it) and I’m guessing something around half of their combined vote would probably go to PSDB.

[buritobr]

IPEC and other polls show good numbers for Lula. I think probably he will win, but I don't think he will have a huge margin.
In very early polls, when most people still don't care, always the most known candidates poll better. The calculation of the valid votes now is not adequate for the moment. Many "undecided" will still decide.

[buritobr]

News about 2022

Most of the polls used to consider that governor of São Paulo João Dória would be the PSDB candidate in 2022. But many PSDB state leaders are declaring now that they will endorse governor of Rio Grande do Sul Eduardo Leite in the primaries.

PSOL had its own candidates in the presidential elections of 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018. However, the most recent PSOL congress approved the possibility of endorsing Lula already in the first round in 2022.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/poderdata-lula-segue-a-frente-e-tem-40-no-1o-turno-bolsonaro-vai-a-30/

2022 presidential election poder360 poll:

1st round

Scenario 1 (with João Doria)

Lula (Worker's Party) 40%
Bolsonaro (no party) 30%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party) 5%
José Luiz Datena (Liberal Social Party) 4%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 3%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats) 3%
Rodrigo Pacheco (Democrats) 2%
Alessandro Vieira (Citizenship) 1%
Aldo Rebelo (no party) 1%
Blank/null: 9%
DK: 2%

Scenario 2 (with Eduardo Leite)

Lula (Worker's Party) 43%
Bolsonaro (no party) 28%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party) 5%
Eduardo Leite (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 4%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats) 3%
José Luiz Datena (Social Liberal Party) 2%
Rodrigo Pacheco (Democrats) 1%
Alessandro Vieira (Citizenship) 1%
Aldo Rebelo (no party) 1%
Blank/null: 10%
DK: 1%

https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/lula-vence-tucanos-joao-doria-e-eduardo-leite-com-38-pontos-de-vantagem/

2nd round

Lula 56% vs. Bolsonaro 33%
Doria 46% vs. Bolsonaro 35%
Ciro 46% vs. Bolsonaro 36%
Leite 44% vs. Bolsonaro 34%
Lula 53% vs. Doria 15%
Lula 53% vs. Leite 15%

[Red Velvet]

New IPESPE poll

Scenario 1
Lula 43% (-3)
Bolsonaro 28% (+4)
Ciro Gomes 11% (+1)
João Doria 5%
Henrique Mandetta 4%
Rodrigo Pacheco 2%

Scenario 2
Lula 42%
Bolsonaro 25%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Sérgio Moro 7%
Henrique Mandetta 3%
Datena 3%
Eduardo Leite 3%
Simone Tebet 1%
Rodrigo Pacheco 1%

Runoff simulations
Lula 50% vs Bolsonaro 31%
Lula 53% vs Sérgio Moro 34%
Lula 49% vs Ciro Gomes 30%
Lula 49% vs Eduardo Leite 30%
Lula 50% vs João Doria 27%
Ciro Gomes 45% vs Bolsonaro 34%
Eduardo Leite 36% vs Bolsonaro 33%
João Doria 39% vs Bolsonaro 35%

[buritobr]

Governor Rio de Janeiro - Real Time Big Data - September 28th

Marcelo Freixo (PSB, former PSOL member, left): 25%
Claudio Castro (PL, far-right, Bolsonaro's ally): 18%
Rodrigo Neves (PDT, center-left): 9%
Felipe Santa Cruz (no party yet, center): 2%

[buritobr]

Mass protests in Brazil call for Bolsonaro's impeachment.
Since almost all adults had at least one dose, more people have courage to go. Even though, everybody wear masks. It is still necessary.
The demonstration was very big in São Paulo, at Avenida Paulista, and Rio de Janeiro, at Avenida Rio Branco.
I went to the demonstration in Rio de Janeiro

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/02/mass-protests-in-brazil-call-for-bolsonaros-impeachment

[buritobr]

According to Pandora Papers, the Minister of Economy Paulo Guedes has US$9.5M in offshore in the British Virgin Isles. President of the Central Bank Roberto Campos Neto has 2 companies in Panama and 2 companies in Bahamas.
It's not illegal to have large amount of money in tax heavens, but it's not very ethical for the 2 most important leaders of the Brazilian economy.

[SnowLabrador]

I still firmly believe that Bolsonaro is going to stay in office. The only thing that can change my mind is him being forced out. Even if he loses re-election, he could still stay in office through a coup, like what Trump tried here. Maybe I'm just a chronic pessimist, but he's not going quietly.

[CumbrianLefty]

He can try a coup if he loses, but it won't succeed.

Hopefully the cost in human lives in such an eventuality won't be too high.

[buritobr]

The Senate Inquiry of the mismanagement of the pandemic finished its job. The final report accused Jair Bolsonaro, his son, some doctors, some pastors and some business people of crimes like advertising fake cures, like the cloroquine, and to advice people to not respect the restrictions established by governors and mayors. Bolsonaro is also accused of taking more time than the necessary to purchase the vaccines.
These misbehaviors are related to the extra number of deaths. There would be thousands of deaths anyway. But Brazil had 600K deaths in a population of 213M. This share is higher than the world average.
The report of the Senate is not enough to take Bolsonaro to a court. This task is responsability of the general attorney, who is a Bolsonaro's ally. The inquiry probably will not take Bolsonaro, his family and his allies to the prison, but it was very important to make him weaker politically.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Did the report include anything about the Covaxin scandal?

[SnowLabrador]

It should be slammer time for Bolsonaro, but it won't be. He's going to get re-elected, I'm sure of it.

[CumbrianLefty]

So you keep telling us, and you have surely done so enough times now.

[buritobr]

Did the report include anything about the Covaxin scandal?

Yes

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

And because people turning into crocodile hybrids from COVID-19 vaccines wasn't enough , Bolsonaro has now shared another similar conspiracy theory

The Covid vaccine will weaken your immune system and somehow that will give you HIV-AIDS

[Red Velvet]

Facebook and Instagram have taken down Bolsonaro’s live transmitted on Wednesday where he created a link between the Covid vaccines and getting AIDS.

At least the crocodile conspiracy was fun.

This man is the biggest caricature of the Latin American right, ladies and gents.

[buritobr]

And because people turning into crocodile hybrids from COVID-19 vaccines wasn't enough , Bolsonaro has now shared another similar conspiracy theory

The Covid vaccine will weaken your immune system and somehow that will give you HIV-AIDS

Even people who voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 and are willing to vote for him again in 2022 don't believe in this sh**t. The vaccination rate in Brazil is high.
If you rate the level of stupidity from 0 to 100, people who believe in all Bolsonaro's hoaxes have a 100 level of stupidity. People who don't believe in his hoaxes but still think he is doing a good administration have a 90 level of stupidity.

[SnowLabrador]

So Trump has endorsed Bolsonaro for reelection. Make of that what you will.

[CumbrianLefty]

A major shock if he had done anything else?

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

2022 presidential election poder360 poll:

https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/poderdata-moro-volta-pontua-de-7-a-8-e-desidrata-nomes-da-3a-via/

Scenario 1

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva(Worker's Party) 35%
Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 28%
Sérgio Moro (We Can) 8%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party) 5%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 4%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Brazil Union) 4%
José Luiz Datena (Brazil Union) 3%
Alessandro Vieira (Citizenship) 3%
Rodrigo Pacheco (Social Democratic Party) 1%

blank/null: 7%
don't know: 2%

Scenario 2 (with Eduardo Leite)

Lula (Worker's Party) 34%
Bolsonaro (no party) 30%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party) 7%
Moro (We Can) 7%
Mandetta (Brazil Union) 4%
Datena (Brazil Union) 4%
Leite (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 3%
Vieira (Citizenship) 3%
Pacheco (Social Democratic Party) 1%

blank/null: 6%
don't know: 1%

2nd round

Bolsonaro 37% vs. Lula 52% (-8%)
Bolsonaro 38% vs. Doria 46% (-3%)
Bolsonaro 36% vs. Leite 40% (-6%)
Lula 51% vs. Doria 16% (-3%)
Lula 48% vs. Leite 18% (-8%)

[buritobr]

Lula is in a trip to Europe. He met Olaf Scholz. I hope a good partnership between these social democrats leaders in 2023. The 5th and the 8th world's biggest GDPs can have great gains in cooperation.
https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1459244711806480386

Remembering that when Lula was a union leader, he met Helmut Schmidt in 1981.