Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[buritobr]

Today, Brazil overtook the USA in the share of the population who received at least 1 shot of the anti-covid19 vaccine. Now, 61% of the Brazilians received at least one shot.
The number of anti-vaxxers in Brazil is much lower than in some high income countries.
The vaccination in Brazil was slow due to the scarcity of doses and not due to anti-vaxxers. Much more than 61% of the people who had the opportunity to take one shot have done it. Many cities are starting to offer shots to under 18 year old people only today.
The share of the population who took the 2 shots in Brazil is still low because the interval between the 2 AstraZeneca shots in Brazil has 12 weeks.

[Red Velvet]

Brazil has the same vaccination strategy as Argentina: Have a larger gap between 1st and 2nd doses because the priority is to get as most people as possible with some level of protection, so there was more emphasis on 1st dose. Besides, studies show that a larger gap can be even more effective in protecting.

I think it was good strategy, especially with the rise of Delta now and the info that efficiency reduces with time (may be necessary for vaccination to be a constant yearly thing). Imagine old people getting 2nd dose in March and heading into September with Delta variant so strong? Would be terrible.

Glad about the strategy, glad about Brazilians strongly adhering to vaccination and glad for the good numbers (61,4% with at least 1 dose and 26,8% fully vaccinated). All adult ages already had practically their date to get 1st dose in the main cities, so in the next weeks we will likely see adolescents get their 1st dose and after that 2nd dose numbers will likely speed up as quickly as the 1st dose ones have been so far. Some places are also establishing a 3rd dose for older people and also to people with comorbidities.

I’m in my 20s and already got the 1st dose of the Pfizer vaccine around two weeks ago. My 2nd dose is scheduled for Early November but I think my city will want to speed things up after they finish giving the teenagers their 1st dose, so I’m kinda expecting to get it in October.

Rio de Janeiro city, Considering only 12+ year olds (public who are allowed to get the vaccine):
1st dose: 87,3% vaccinated
2nd dose: 42, 7% vaccinated

Rio de Janeiro city, Considering all population (includes less than 12 yo who cannot be vaccinated):
1st dose: 74,8% vaccinated
2nd dose: 36,6% vaccination

Brazil all population average:
1st dose: 61,4% vaccinated
2nd dose: 26,8% vaccinated

Rio de Janeiro (city) is doing very well in the vaccination. Rio de Janeiro (state) is lagging a bit behind in comparison to other states in Southeast and South though. Not surprising, considering the Governor wasn’t “really elected”.

[buritobr]

Brazil has the same vaccination strategy as Argentina: Have a larger gap between 1st and 2nd doses because the priority is to get as most people as possible with some level of protection, so there was more emphasis on 1st dose. Besides, studies show that a larger gap can be even more effective in protecting.

I think it was good strategy, especially with the rise of Delta now and the info that efficiency reduces with time (may be necessary for vaccination to be a constant yearly thing). Imagine old people getting 2nd dose in March and heading into September with Delta variant so strong? Would be terrible.

Glad about the strategy, glad about Brazilians strongly adhering to vaccination and glad for the good numbers (61,4% with at least 1 dose and 26,8% fully vaccinated). All adult ages already had practically their date to get 1st dose in the main cities, so in the next weeks we will likely see adolescents get their 1st dose and after that 2nd dose numbers will likely speed up as quickly as the 1st dose ones have been so far. Some places are also establishing a 3rd dose for older people and also to people with comorbidities.

I’m in my 20s and already got the 1st dose of the Pfizer vaccine around two weeks ago. My 2nd dose is scheduled for Early November but I think my city will want to speed things up after they finish giving the teenagers their 1st dose, so I’m kinda expecting to get it in October.

Rio de Janeiro city, Considering only 12+ year olds (public who are allowed to get the vaccine):
1st dose: 87,3% vaccinated
2nd dose: 42, 7% vaccinated

Rio de Janeiro city, Considering all population (includes less than 12 yo who cannot be vaccinated):
1st dose: 74,8% vaccinated
2nd dose: 36,6% vaccination

Brazil all population average:
1st dose: 61,4% vaccinated
2nd dose: 26,8% vaccinated

Rio de Janeiro (city) is doing very well in the vaccination. Rio de Janeiro (state) is lagging a bit behind in comparison to other states in Southeast and South though. Not surprising, considering the Governor wasn’t “really elected”.

"Coincidence": the states in the Center-West, Southeast and South whose governors are more Bolsonaro's ally are the slowest in the vaccination. Rio de Janeiro (Claudio Castro), Minas Gerais (Zema) and Mato Grosso (Mauro Mendes).

[buritobr]

Polls for 2022

Governor Rio de Janeiro - Exame Ideia - August 26th
Marcelo Freixo (PSB) 22%, Claudio Castro (PL) 21%, Eduardo Paes (PSD) 16%, Rodrigo Neves (PDT) 7%
Obs: I don't believe Paes will resign in order to run for governor. The mayor of the city of Rio de Janeiro is almost as powerful as the governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro

Governor São Paulo - Exame Ideia - August 26th
Geraldo Alckmin 19%, Fernando Haddad 16%, Marcio França 15%, Guilherme Boulos 14%, Skaf 7%, Garcia 5%, Val 4%, Poit 2%, Tarcísio 2%
Center-right (Alckmin+França): 34%
Left (Haddad+Boulos): 30%
Far-right (Skaf+Garcia+Val+Poit+Tarcísio): 20%

[Red Velvet]

Genial/Quaest poll

Who do you want to see winning the 2022 election?
Lula 45%
Bolsonaro 23%
Neither Lula or Bolsonaro 25%
Don’t Know 7%

If all the people who don’t want either Lula or Bolsonaro unified under the same name, they could take Bolsonaro out of the runoff. Especially if this trend keeps going and his numbers get to < 20%.

This probably will never happen though lmao. Only if Bolsonaro manages to get even more unpopular than he currently is and his numbers drop to something like 10%~15%. But that would likely still benefit Lula more and indicate a 1st round win even if another name really surpasses Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

People who don’t want either Lula or Bolsonaro are not an unified group. It is hard that all of them vote for the same candidate. There are 3 groups of people who don’t want either Lula or Bolsonaro.

1st: those who want something between PSDB and Bolsonaro. They really want someone on the right of the PSDB and they dislike Bolsonaro because his stupidity and not because of the ideology. Rodrigo Pacheco, João Amoedo, Sergio Moro, Luciano Huck and Henrique Mandetta are good names for this group. MBL feets into this category.

2nd: PSDB

3rd: those who want something between PT and PSDB. Their best candidates are Ciro Gomes and Marina Silva. If Eduardo Campos was alive, he could be in this group.

If the candidate is the one who fits in the 1st group, members of the 3rd group could vote for the PT candidate in the first round. If the candidate is Ciro Gomes or Marina Silva, members of the 1st group could vote for Bolsonaro in the first round. A PSDB candidate needs to satisfy both the 1st and the 3rd group in order to have all the votes.

[PSOL]

Who is Popular Unity endorsing?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Unity_(Brazil)

[Red Velvet]

Ugh, I cannot decide if I hate and trash Lula’s extremely fake “conciliatory president of everyone” image he sells or accept it and embrace it as good political strategy. It’s such a Lula thing to do though, cannot be too mad knowing that he was always like this and doesn’t intend to change. But at same time I feel like vomiting with the performance act.

Sometimes I just want to scream and force him to position himself on lots of issues and call bad people for what they are instead of this nauseating “Father of everyone” crap. The calmness and borderline indifference in his speech can be comforting to lots of people, but not to me.

To people who aren’t familiar with his motto too much, Lula is the type of opportunist politician who will go to a religious event and pose for pictures with evangelical leader with homophobic beliefs who preaches for “gay cure” and act like he’s this person guided by religion. In the next day will go to left-wing event with trans people and kiss their ass saying how he feels emotional with the advances gained. When in reality, he cares about neither (religious values OR trans rights), he just wants everyone’s votes lmao

I think most of the decision process is not as much as ideology as it is about personality for most people, including myself. Style > Content.

I like Ciro way better because I feel more honesty in his anger and sometimes uncontrolled speech. It matches how I’m currently pissed about everything. I don’t want  “conciliation”, I want people responsible to everything that is happening to eventually PAY for their actions and crimes.

However, I get that Lula trying to emulate a balanced “good father who promises conciliation between everyone” passes some good christian guy vibes that are more appealing to people. Not even when he talks about the super-rich he adopts too much of a threatening rhetoric, it’s always pretty mild common sense stuff.

He will still use the narrative that he’s a father that needs to prioritize the needs of the son in the most need, as if we were all his children lmao. I hate but also kinda love that? It’s cynical AF and I hate politicians forcing this personalization of their images BUT at the same time I have to recognize that makes the political debate more inclusive to people who don’t necessarily pay as much attention to politics.

It’s very much a characteristic that comes from his more humble background, he really GETS how to speak the language of the people, real people. The way he always talks using simplified analogies and usually with some emotional moralizing message about helping including the poor is brilliant. You gotta respect how he manages to include people in the debate through his communication. That’s really important for a politician to have and something most people take for granted simply because they look at unprivileged groups with condescension, as if speech didn’t have to reach out to them. Lots of global establishment leftists could learn a lot with the unique way of how Lula communicates, because nowadays their speech isn’t really connected with real average people.

That said, I still get mad about the cynicism and the grandiosity vibes he tries to pass, always trying too hard to not compromise himself negatively against anyone. And it is NOT because he really believes in that “father of everyone” narrative, it’s because that way he doesn’t anger any sector of society way too much and expands his potential electorate. Smart, but sometimes I cannot stand people pushing the cringe PT propaganda as if he was supposed to be great kind God-like type of leader that reaches out to all of his children to justify taking pics with the trashiest trash of Brazilian society.

Just be honest and say you gotta get that religious vote that I will understand. Everyone (except maybe PSOL) has to do it anyway, so it’s not really a big deal to reach out to those people. But it’s very insulting to people’s intelligence to force that other narrative. Lula is not their father, neither he is mine. Not good excuse to avoid compromise!

I think for me to like Lula more he just needs to curse more and trashtalk people more often. That would make him more relatable to me (and specifically me). It’s not really a problem with his platform, which I tend to support more than I don’t. Although I wish he would give more focus to deindustrialization issues.

[Red Velvet]

Who is Popular Unity endorsing?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Unity_(Brazil)

Too early but most likely it will be PSOL if they have a candidate for 2022.

If not, then probably Lula.

[buritobr]

Who is Popular Unity endorsing?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Unity_(Brazil)

Too early but most likely it will be PSOL if they have a candidate for 2022.

If not, then probably Lula.

In the PSOL Congress last weekend, the thesis supporting an alliance with PT already in the 1st round had the majority of the votes. It still not the final decision yet, but the party is on the way to have an alliance with PT in the 1st round.

[buritobr]

Ipespe Poll in São Paulo September 1st

Governor
Geraldo Alckmin 23%, Fernando Haddad 19%, Guilherme Boulos 14%, Tarcísio 5%, Weintraub 3%, Rodrigo Garcia 3%

President
Lula 32%, Jair Bolsonaro 28%, Ciro Gomes 9%, João Doria 8%, Datena 6%, Mandetta 5%
runoff: Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 34%

São Paulo is usually a conservative stronghold. The left won a presidencial election there only in 2002, when Lula defeated José Serra by 55%-45% (the national result was Lula 61%, Serra 39%)
Fernando Collor 1989, Fernando Henrique Cardoso 1994 and 1998, Geraldo Alckmin 2006, José Serra 2010, Aécio Neves 2014 and Jair Bolsonaro 2018 won in São Paulo.
Lula is leading the poll there for 2022.

[buritobr]

There was no soccer game Brazil vs Argentina in the Qualifier of the 2022 Qatar World Cup. Officers of the Anvisa (Agência de Vigilância Sanitária) entered the field and said that the game could not continued because 4 Argentine players didn't respect all the protocols.
It is funny that usually no strict rules are seriously enforced, Brazil had a very high death rate in the pandemic, but the agents were very strict to the Argentine players.

[Red Velvet]

New Atlas poll

Runoff scenarios:


1st round simulation:


Opinion about the Bolsonaro government (Red = Bad/Awful; Yellow = Regular; Green = Good/Great):


Approval ratings of multiple political leaders:

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Major pro-Bolsonaro (and sometimes pro-coup) rallies expected today. We’ll see if he’s able to show his strength or just a paper tiger.

[Red Velvet]

Major pro-Bolsonaro (and sometimes pro-coup) rallies expected today. We’ll see if he’s able to show his strength or just a paper tiger.

Mixed bag. They weren’t insignificant but compared to the hype (and loads and loads of money, including international) being put into it, it feels kinda underwhelming?

Like, it shows his support isn’t dead and he still has a crazy loyal base but at same time it shows they only lost political space in the last year. There won’t be a coup and I don’t think he wins next year, but apparently he will always have a floor of support of around 15% minimum among society.

Which shows this new face of the right is here for the long term. People hoping for Bolsonarism to die in order for PSDB to return should be disappointed, because having a minimum of 15%~20% in elections means these people WILL NOT return to PSDB.

But I’m more confident we’ll get rid of him in 2022 now, if democracy is respected.

[buritobr]

The pro Bolsonaro rally in Rio de Janeiro took place at Copacabana Beach. Many retired generals live there, they are an important Bolsonaro base.
The anti Bolsonaro rally in Rio de Janeiro took place at downtown. I went there. It was not as big as the anti-Bolsonaro rally in June because few opposition leaders made advertising of the rally today. They had a fear of violent clashes between pro and anti Bolsonaro demonstrators. Even though, the anti Bolsonaro rally had a respectable size.
I didn't see any physical conflict between pro and anti Bolsonaro demonstrators. The distance between downtown and Copacabana is 10 km. While I was walking to downtown, I saw some pro Bolsonaro demonstrators wearing yellow T-shirts taking the metro. It was hard to find anyone under 60.

[Red Velvet]

Basically takeaway for people after today: Bolsonaro is weak enough to lose reelection and not be able to have a coup, but maybe not weak enough that he can be removed for the next year.

It’s kind of a political limbo tbh. He doesn’t control the majority of congress but opposition doesn’t have votes (or the fighting will) to impeach him either. The right is the one pushing the discourse because they’re energized even though they’re now in the minority. The left, although now has sympathy of the majority just because people cannot stand Bolsonaro anymore, is very complacent.

That’s one thing I blame PT, for kidnapping the left in many ways. I feel like people were grateful for the advances seen during Lula’s government that they were willing to adapt their agendas in order to be the most favorable as possible to PT. That’s something that just kills any large motivation the left could have.

The left needs to be angry side, inquisitive, curious and change driven, something the right is today. Many left-wing sectors sympathetic to PT castrated the left after the 2013 protests, as if the left shouldn’t protest if “an ally was in power”. As if the left was a mere tool to get PT elected and keep their leaders with big approval ratings.

That created a vacuum to be fulfilled, to canalize the dissatisfaction in society, something which the right occupied in the face of a duller left that was worried about sucking up to Dilma and the PT.

You kidnap the youth using this destructive “If you criticize us, that much worse option will be empowered” that is only party-interest driven, you suck all the energy out of people because they have nothing to fight for. No one gets energized to campaign for a party, they get inspired by ideas.

PT became old, not because of its ideas, but because of their refusal to renovate. Lula should’ve let the party have more freedom and stimulate new NATURAL leaderships to emerge in the party, instead of fabricating leaders and using the trust he has to push them into reality.

In my 20s, I see a lot of people around the same age bracket in the left that also have this idea. Some flirt with PSOL/Boulos as the new moral guide, others with Ciro Gomes… Many others are driven by nostalgia (or pragmatism of going for something you know) and support Lula but without that bright shine in the eyes that I think people had in the old days. And that’s what I feel the left is missing.

People still try to kidnap the youth energy with the fabricated polarization of “If you criticize something about Lula or not vote for him outright, you strengthen Bolsonaro”. THE SAME SPEECH they had in 2013 when people in the left protesting were supposed to be “stupid” for demanding positive changes because it was bad for PT!

Instead of capitalizing on that youth energy demanding positive change, “left activists” repressed it and allowed the right to emerge and fulfill the void. People could’ve pushed to motivate the left back then to go more to the streets so that the momentum wouldn’t have been stolen by the right.

The effects are seen to this day. The left is too scared and unmotivated to properly organize even when they’re back to being the majority, like now. I think Lula would be mostly a good president, like he was during his presidency, but the left desperately needs change and renovation. They need to dictate the conversation.

Otherwise Lula is elected and then what? He will pragmatically compromise to “Centrão” and have an even more centrist government than his first one. Because with a weak left, the base of support he will have to rely on is with corrupt “Centrão” that always kidnaps every government. And we already saw how that story ended in the first time, the difference is that they would do the same thing again much faster in the next time.

That “fall in line with the party” discourse is very destructive for any country. Without the youth’s soul, there’s no future to be constructed. And if there’s no future, only path is decadence.

[buritobr]

Datafolha Poll
September 13-15th

Rate Bolsonato's administration
Good/Very good 22%
Regular 24%
Bad/Very bad 53%

[Red Velvet]

Datafolha Poll
September 13-15th

Rate Bolsonato's administration
Good/Very good 22%
Regular 24%
Bad/Very bad 53%

Changes from last poll from July indicate Bolsonaro keeps slowly falling while disapproval grows, lmao:

22% Good/Great (-2%)
24% Regular (0%)
53% Bad/Awful (+2%)

More than half of population hates his guts, a quarter is more meh and neutral about it and his supporters are now less than a quarter of the population. And this is because the multiple economic problems predicted for 2022 by analysts didn’t even really start yet, such as the energy crisis that I think it will get strong in Brazilian Summer (December 2021-March 2022). People are feeling effects of inflation but it’s still extremely light to what it could become if specialists are correct.

2021 really feels like 2001 in some ways. There were tons of blackouts during FHC’s 2nd term, which is when he started to get unpopular after a popular 1st term (which led to 4 consecutive presidential victories for PT).

DataFolha, alongside IPEC (ex-IBOPE), is one of Brazil’s most traditional polls, the one most people rely on. This new poll surely will make the government sh**t on its pants even more. It’s unimaginable that this person still has anything over a 20% approval, we should throw a party if it finally gets less than that.

[Red Velvet]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1438604731459555341

Translated:

In comparison with other presidents in the same period of their 1st term, Bolsonaro has the 2nd largest disapproval rating ever:

Collor - 68% Disapproval
Bolsonaro - 53% Disapproval
Lula - 23% Disapproval
Dilma - 22% Disapproval
FHC - 16% Disapproval

Of these:
Collor - Impeached during 1st Term
FHC - Reelected and finished both terms
Lula - Reelected and finished both terms
Dilma - Reelected but Impeached during 2nd Term
Bolsonaro - One finished term only?? Probably won’t be re-elected and neither impeached.

[Red Velvet]

DataFolha with more details:

Demographics with highest APPROVAL ratings for Bolsonaro:
- Entrepreneurs - 47% Approval
- People who don’t want to vote for PT, PSDB, MDB or PSOL - 38% Approval
- Evangelicals - 29% Approval
- Unemployed - 29% Approval
- Residents of the South Region - 28% Approval
All People average: 22% Approval overall

Demographics with highest DISAPPROVAL ratings for Bolsonaro:
- People who like PSOL - 85% Disapproval
- Homossexuals and Bissexuals - 73% Disapproval
- Students - 63% Disapproval
- Young People (Ages between 16-24) - 59% Disapproval
- Black Brazilians - 59% Disapproval
All People average: 53% Disapproval overall

[Red Velvet]

More from Datafolha!

2022 election 1st round projection A:
Lula (PT) 44% (-2)
Bolsonaro (no party) 26% (+1)
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 9% (+1)
João Doria (PSDB) 4% (-1)
Henrique Mandetta 3% (-1)
Blank + Null Votes 11% (+1)
Undecided 2% (-)

2022 election 1st round projection B:
Lula (PT) 42% (-4)
Bolsonaro (no party) 25% (-)
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 12% (+3)
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) 4% (+1)
Henrique Mandetta (DEM) 4% (-1)
Blank + Null Votes 11% (+1)
Undecided 2% (-)

Runoff scenarios:
Lula (PT) 56% (-2)
Bolsonaro (no party) 31% (-)
Blank + Null 13% (+3)
Undecided 1% (-)

Lula (PT) 55% (-1)
João Doria (PSDB) 23% (+1)
Blank + Null 22% (+2)
Undecided 1% (-)

Ciro Gomes (PDT) 52% (+2)
Bolsonaro (no party) 33% (-1)
Blank + Null 15% (-)
Undecided 1% (-)

João Doria (PSDB) 46% (-)
Bolsonaro (no party) 34% (-1)
Blank + Null 19% (+1)
Undecided 1% (-)

Lula (PT) 51%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 29%
Blank + Null 19%
Undecided 1%

Basically the runoff leads from biggest to smallest are…
Lula +32 (vs João Doria)
Lula +25 (vs Bolsonaro)
Lula +22 (vs Ciro Gomes)
Ciro Gomes +19 (vs Bolsonaro)
João Doria +12 (vs Bolsonaro)

DataFolha also asked how much respondents trust the declarations from president Bolsonaro:
Never Trusts 57% (+2)
Sometimes Trusts 28% (-)
Always Trusts 15% (-)
Don’t Know 2% (-)

That last question is always good in order to know what is Bolsonaro’s floor of approval (how much lower it can get). The same poll that we previously posted indicates 22% approval (people who consider his government good or great) but only 15% always trust him unconditionally.

So from the 22% approval, only 15% are the real radical ones and the real Bolsonaro extremely loyal base while the other 7% still likes him but aren’t necessarily part of his cult of personality and won’t say yes to everything he pulls out.

[buritobr]

Datafolha in the state of São Paulo, where the result of the runoff in 2018 was Bolsonaro 68% Haddad 32%

Lula 31%, Bolsonaro 24%, Ciro Gomes 11%, Datena 9%, Doria 8%, Tebet 3%, Rebelo 1%, Pacheco 1%, Alessandro 1%

[CumbrianLefty]

Was there a runoff result in this poll?

[buritobr]

Was there a runoff result in this poll?

Yes. Lula 49%, Bolsonaro 34%

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