Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[Red Velvet]

If anything, it’s the left who is energetically trashing Eduardo Leite after coming out lol. All the Brazilian left-wing celebs like Felipe Neto, Glenn Greenwald and Jean Wyllys (Ex PSOL congressman who was the first gay member of legislative) are united in having a negative take about this.

I don’t really fully agree tbh although I see the point, I think hyping Leite up for the presidency just because he’s gay is stupid, especially when I don’t agree with him politically. He doesn’t represent me just because he’s a gay. That said, he came out yesterday and I think it’s normal to people to receive the news of Brazil’s first OUT gay Governor with hype in the first day, congratulating him. Naturally, if this lingers for longer and people keep using the dumb identity politics narrative that we gays should support Leite, then it’s a valid argument.

This is only because Leite is establishment center-right neoliberal politician that Globo media likes. If Leite was a left-wing politician they would all be celebrating this and making a big deal of how representation is important. But since he isn’t, the speech shifts to how empty representation is stupid, as Leite voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 despite being gay. Shouldn’t be a good thing that the right is becoming more diverse? That doesn’t mean we have to vote for them lol

I think the idea of PSDB becoming this modern socially liberal right-wing party (kinda like US democratic party) kinda scares the left-wing voters. They do have a point that representation is about what you do for your community and Leite voted for Bolsonaro. But we shouldn’t pretend he was the only gay voting “against” his interests in 2018. He doesn’t represent me but surely there are people who will feel represented by his coming out and they exist too, whether the left likes it or not.

But it’s also true there is only hype because he’s young and hot and has an even hotter boyfriend. If there were women who voted for Collor in 1989 just because of his looks (and he wasn’t even cute imo), then Leite definitely has some potential with women and also gay men demographics in this specific regard. If he was not a heteronormative “Padrão” type, people wouldn’t even be considering him for the presidency. The image privileges of being a cute white gay with power…

I hope he’s the PSDB nominee though! Being gay is enough for me to like someone more than Doria lol

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

If anything, it’s the left who is energetically trashing Eduardo Leite after coming out lol. All the Brazilian left-wing celebs like Felipe Neto, Glenn Greenwald and Jean Wyllys (Ex PSOL congressman who was the first gay member of legislative) are united in having a negative take about this.

I don’t really fully agree tbh although I see the point, I think hyping Leite up for the presidency just because he’s gay is stupid, especially when I don’t agree with him politically. He doesn’t represent me just because he’s a gay. That said, he came out yesterday and I think it’s normal to people to receive the news of Brazil’s first OUT gay Governor with hype in the first day, congratulating him. Naturally, if this lingers for longer and people keep using the dumb identity politics narrative that we gays should support Leite

This is only because Leite is establishment center-right neoliberal politician that Globo media likes. If Leite was a left-wing politician they would all be celebrating this and making a big deal of how representation is important. But since he isn’t, the speech shifts to how empty representation is stupid, as Leite voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 despite being gay. Shouldn’t be a good thing that the right is becoming more diverse? That doesn’t mean we have to vote for them lol

I think the idea of PSDB becoming this modern socially liberal right-wing party (kinda like US democratic party) kinda scares the left-wing voters. They do have a point that representation is about what you do for your community and Leite voted for Bolsonaro. But we shouldn’t pretend he was the only gay voting “against” his interests in 2018. He doesn’t represent me but surely there are people who will feel represented by his coming out and they exist too, whether the left likes it or not.

But it’s also true there is only hype because he’s young and hot and has an even hotter boyfriend. If there were women who voted for Collor in 1989 just because of his looks (and he wasn’t even cute imo), then Leite definitely has some potential with women and also gay men demographics in this specific regard. If he was not a heteronormative “Padrão” type, people wouldn’t even be considering him for the presidency. The image privileges of being a cute white gay with power…

I hope he’s the PSDB nominee though! Being gay is enough for me to like someone more than Doria lol

Reminds me of that time Ciro Gomes called Fernando Holiday a bush captain.

[buritobr]

The were big protests against Bolsonaro again in many Brasilian cities on July 3rd https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57709301

I went to the demonstration in downtown Rio de Janeiro. Eveybody was wearing masks and avoiding to get to close one from another. I went there walking, in order to avoid the subway. "Only" 5km from my home.

[Red Velvet]

If anything, it’s the left who is energetically trashing Eduardo Leite after coming out lol. All the Brazilian left-wing celebs like Felipe Neto, Glenn Greenwald and Jean Wyllys (Ex PSOL congressman who was the first gay member of legislative) are united in having a negative take about this.

I don’t really fully agree tbh although I see the point, I think hyping Leite up for the presidency just because he’s gay is stupid, especially when I don’t agree with him politically. He doesn’t represent me just because he’s a gay. That said, he came out yesterday and I think it’s normal to people to receive the news of Brazil’s first OUT gay Governor with hype in the first day, congratulating him. Naturally, if this lingers for longer and people keep using the dumb identity politics narrative that we gays should support Leite

This is only because Leite is establishment center-right neoliberal politician that Globo media likes. If Leite was a left-wing politician they would all be celebrating this and making a big deal of how representation is important. But since he isn’t, the speech shifts to how empty representation is stupid, as Leite voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 despite being gay. Shouldn’t be a good thing that the right is becoming more diverse? That doesn’t mean we have to vote for them lol

I think the idea of PSDB becoming this modern socially liberal right-wing party (kinda like US democratic party) kinda scares the left-wing voters. They do have a point that representation is about what you do for your community and Leite voted for Bolsonaro. But we shouldn’t pretend he was the only gay voting “against” his interests in 2018. He doesn’t represent me but surely there are people who will feel represented by his coming out and they exist too, whether the left likes it or not.

But it’s also true there is only hype because he’s young and hot and has an even hotter boyfriend. If there were women who voted for Collor in 1989 just because of his looks (and he wasn’t even cute imo), then Leite definitely has some potential with women and also gay men demographics in this specific regard. If he was not a heteronormative “Padrão” type, people wouldn’t even be considering him for the presidency. The image privileges of being a cute white gay with power…

I hope he’s the PSDB nominee though! Being gay is enough for me to like someone more than Doria lol

Reminds me of that time Ciro Gomes called Fernando Holiday a bush captain.

Kinda yes , but Holiday and his discourse always actively worked to antagonize the Black movement and more than just on a policy-matter. The attack, even if heavy (a normal day for Ciro and his tongue) and arguably disproportionate, has a criticism that is valid behind it.

I think Holiday has changed his rhetoric to be less antagonizing of the black movement though. He still criticizes some positions but there isn’t the same type of “disgust” in his rhetoric like before. I think maybe he got more educated and even if he still disagrees with lots of it, he isn’t as disrespectful of the collective movement as a whole.

Eduardo Leite criticism is just because he’s from PSDB, leans towards right-wing economic politics and never had specific LGBT policy history of fighting. As if someone wasn’t allowed to be that just because they’re gay. But I’ve never seen him openly wanting to start a personal feud against the gay community he’s a part of, actively antagonizing LGBT policies. He’s more of a discreet gay who always wanted to not position himself on these matters, while Holiday was a black man who used to like to trash the black movement demands with a very particular focus.

That doesn’t necessarily make Ciro attacks appropriate or proportional, but they definitely have more of an intelectual reasoning behind compared to left-wing attacks against Eduardo Leite when the only thing he did was to publicly come out of the closet. That’s just leftists scared of Eduardo Leite being the new Globo sweetheart and wanting to anticipate a narrative against him in order to assure they will keep social progressives away from supporting him (Kinda like: “Look, he supported homophobe Bolsonaro in 2018, so he doesn’t represent the gays!”).

Eduardo Leite positions on social issues vary. From my understanding he always supported gay marriage (if he didn’t, that would be something that justified harsher attacks on him) and also the legalization of Marijuana. But he opposes decriminalization of abortion, which tbh is the standard position from politicians because abortion is treated much more as a taboo in Brazil (and Latin America) in comparison with gay rights and weed.

Latin American countries like Uruguay and now Mexico were global pioneers in the weed topic. Brazil and Uruguay legalized gay marriage in 2013, earlier than lots of western countries that are seen as “progressive references” and Argentina did it even before, in 2010 (becoming one of the first 10 countries in the world to do so).

If you look at the abortion map though, Latin America lags way way behind. Argentina decriminalized it recently but that still was years later than everyone else in the world.

The weed topic is interesting because so far in the whole world it’s more limited only to North America (Canada, Mexico and specific parts of US), Uruguay, South Africa and Georgia (I think??). I wonder why that specific topic got popularized in North America first.

[Red Velvet]

New CNT poll released for the 2022 presidential election:

Lula (PT) 41,3%
Bolsonaro (no party) 26,6%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 5,9%
Sérgio Moro (no party) 5,9%
João Doria (PSDB) 2,1%
Henrique Mandetta (DEM) 1,8%
Blank/nulls 8,6%
Undecided 7,8%

Runoff scenarios:
Lula 52,6% vs Bolsonaro 33,3%
Ciro Gomes 43,2% vs Bolsonaro 33,7%

Bolsonaro Government approval among Brazilians:
Disapprove 63% (+12)
Approve 34% (-10)

Variations indicated based on the February 2021 poll from the same institute.

They also asked what is the bigger priority for voters in the 2022 election:

Not reelect Bolsonaro 45,1%
Not elect Lula 27,7%
Neither of the options 21,2%

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Antipetismo in shambles. You love to see it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://noticias.uol.com.br/reportagens-especiais/ex-cunhada-implica-jair-bolsonaro/

New Bolsonaro scandal (seems like there’s one every day now). Ex-sister-in-law accusing him of forcing staffers to give him part of their salaries when he was a federal deputy.

[Red Velvet]

Antipetismo in shambles. You love to see it.

Excluding blank/nulls and undecideds, that’s 49,4% of the valid votes in the 1st round for Lula.

For a candidate to win without a runoff, they need to get 50% or more of the valid votes. Which means there is the possibility of not even happening a runoff. Which would be a first for PT in presidential election, it’s only something PSDB has done it in the 90s. All 4 of their victories happened with a runoff.

1989: Runoff happens
Collor (PRN) 30,5%
Lula (PT) 17,2%
Brizola (PDT) 16,5%
Mário Covas (PSDB) 11,5%

1994: PSDB wins with no runoff
FHC (PSDB) 54,2%
Lula (PT) 27,1%

1998: PSDB wins with no runoff
FHC (PSDB) 53,1%
Lula (PT) 31,7%
Ciro Gomes (PPS) 11,0%

2002: Runoff happens
Lula (PT) 46,4%
José Serra (PSDB) 23,2%
Anthony Garotinho (PSB) 17,9%
Ciro Gomes (PPS) 12,0%

2006: Runoff happens
Lula (PT) 48,6%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) 41,6%

2010: Runoff happens
Dilma (PT) 46,9%
José Serra (PSDB) 32,6%
Marina Silva (PV) 19,3%

2014: Runoff happens
Dilma (PT) 41,6%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 33,5%
Marina Silva (PSB) 21,3%

2018: Runoff happens
Bolsonaro (PSL) 46,0%
Haddad (PT) 29,3%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 12,5%

CNT 2022 Projection (valid votes): Just barely a runoff happens
Lula (PT) 49,4%
Bolsonaro (no party) 31,8%

Listed only candidates that achieved to get 10%+ in the 1st round of the vote.

[crals]

Eduardo Leite criticism is just because he’s from PSDB, leans towards right-wing economic politics and never had specific LGBT policy history of fighting. As if someone wasn’t allowed to be that just because they’re gay. But I’ve never seen him openly wanting to start a personal feud against the gay community he’s a part of, actively antagonizing LGBT policies.

Arguably supporting Bolsonaro is more effective at antagonizing pro-LGBT policies than actively attacking them. It also carries the stench of hypocrisy with him.

[Red Velvet]

Eduardo Leite criticism is just because he’s from PSDB, leans towards right-wing economic politics and never had specific LGBT policy history of fighting. As if someone wasn’t allowed to be that just because they’re gay. But I’ve never seen him openly wanting to start a personal feud against the gay community he’s a part of, actively antagonizing LGBT policies.

Arguably supporting Bolsonaro is more effective at antagonizing pro-LGBT policies than actively attacking them. It also carries the stench of hypocrisy with him.

Right, but I also don’t like the idea that all LGBT people necessarily MUST vote thinking about LGBT issues first above everything else. As if this was the only thing that defined them.

Someone might be gay but for example, absolutely hate PT economic policies. Who am I to tell them what has to be their priority? Eduardo Leite might dislike Bolsonaro for his homophobic stances but dislike PT even more for other policy disagreements. Economically, Eduardo Leite is closer to Bolsonaro/the right anyways, but more of a competent version based on what he did in his state.

However, it’s totally valid for people who have LGBT rights as a priority (regardless of who they are) to hold that as a reason for not supporting Leite more than the fact he’s gay. But it’s still one year for the elections and I don’t agree with the left that Leite came out of the closet with electoral purposes. I would imagine being a gay in the center-right actually can bring more negatives than positives, especially when you want to run for president?

That’s why my impression was that the left was anticipating an opposition in a moment that wasn’t appropriate, after he just came out. They even tried to oust the RN Governor (from PT) as a lesbian in order to have a narrative competition, but the fact is that even if she’s really a lesbian, she never came out in a public way, so Leite is the first assumed LGBT Governor from Brazil and that’s still an important landmark whether you like him or not.

That doesn’t mean you have to vote for him, much less like him. But it was the moment to congratulate him for the attitude and celebrate the social advance it represents, to have a governor gay (and not just a gay governor in the way Leite referred to himself in order to appeal to the straights).

[Red Velvet]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1412444988370264066

https://mobile.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1412442597277249539

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Genial/Quaest 2022 presidential election poll:

1st round (spontaneous poll):

Lula (Workers Party - PT ) 21%
Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 18%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT) 1%
Others : 1%
Undecided: 57%

In the 2022 elections, would you prefer it to win:

Lula 41%
Bolsonaro 24%
Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula 31%

1st round (stimulated)

Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 28%
Ciro Gomes 10%
João Doria 7%
Blank/null: 3%
Don’t know/don’t answer: 8%

2nd round:

Lula 54% vs. Bolsonaro 33%

Ciro 44% vs. Bolsonaro 36%

Doria 38% vs. Bolsonaro 38%

Mandetta 36% vs. Bolsonaro 37%

Leite 33% vs. Bolsonaro 38%

Rodrigo Pacheco 31% vs. Bolsonaro 39%

Tasso 31% vs. Bolsonaro 40%

[Red Velvet]

DataFolha new poll about opinions on Bolsonaro government:

General opinion about the Bolsonaro government?
Great/Good 24% (-)
Regular 24% (-6)
Bad/Awful 51% (+6)
Don’t Know 1% (-)

How do you usually trust the president declarations?
Always Trust 15%
Sometimes Trust 28%
Never Trust 55%
Don’t Know 1%

How competent the president is?
Competent 36%
Incompetent 58%
Don’t Know 5%

How honest the president is?
Honest 38%
Dishonest 52%
Don’t Know 10%

How intelligent the president is?
Very intelligent 39%
Not very intelligent 57%
Don’t Know 4%

How authentic the president is?
Sincere 39%
Fake 55%
Don’t Know 6%

How confident the president is?
Decided 41%
Undecided 57%
Don’t Know 3%

How Democratic the president is?
Democratic 28%
Authoritarian 66%
Don’t Know 6%

How prepared is the president to lead the country?
Prepared 34%
Unprepared 62%
Don’t Know 4%

Who do you think the president respects more?
Respects more the poor 17%
Respects more the rich 66%
Don’t Know 16%

What do you think about corruption in the Bolsonaro government?
Exists 70%
Doesn’t exist 23%
Don’t Know 7%

What is your expectation about corruption in the government?
It will grow worse 56%
It will diminish for better 13%
It will stay about the same 26%
Don’t Know 5%

[buritobr]

Datafolha polls, president 2022

If Joao Doria runs
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Doria 5%, Mandetta 4%

If Eduardo Leite runs
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Leite 3%

Runoff
Lula 58%, Bolsonaro 31%

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro isn’t in good physical shape, the stress is clearly having physical effects on his health. In his speeches today he couldn’t say one phrase without hiccuping, coughing or burping. Stomach is the part of the body that feels effects from stress the strongest, which is why gastritis is usually associated with high anxiety levels.

He is panicking.

It’s weird, but I do feel some sympathy for him. No matter how awful the person is, it doesn’t bring satisfaction to see anyone suffering. Hope he gets treatment but he needs to resign first in order to get rid from the source of the stress. There’s no fully going back but if he stays longer, the consequences could be worse for him.

[SnowLabrador]

Bolsonaro isn’t in good physical shape, the stress is clearly having physical effects on his health. In his speeches today he couldn’t say one phrase without hiccuping, coughing or burping. Stomach is the part of the body that feels effects from stress the strongest, which is why gastritis is usually associated with high anxiety levels.

He is panicking.

It’s weird, but I do feel some sympathy for him. No matter how awful the person is, it doesn’t bring satisfaction to see anyone suffering. Hope he gets treatment but he needs to resign first in order to get rid from the source of the stress. There’s no fully going back but if he stays longer, the consequences could be worse for him.

I hope he does suffer the way he's making his people suffer.

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro is not only a horrible person, he is very dumb. It is possible to be a horrible person and not be dumb.

It would be very easy to have a good image in the english speaking press, like Economist, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal and Forbes. In the group of the 3 biggest Latin American GDPs, Mexico and Argentina have left-wing governments. Only Brazil has a (very) right-wing government. This business media loves to find a "good example" in Latin American: a government which implements a neoliberal agenda. Besides, Mexico and Argentina are not doing well in the economy, they have not managed very well the pandemic. But Bolsonaro looses this opportunity. He is able to do everything worse, even when his competitors are not doing very well.

[Red Velvet]

I think he just enjoys being a villain and feel like he’s part of a global “populist right” villain club.

Like, his nearly 30 year career as a parasite congressmen was all about making disgusting comments and antagonizing people to get media. He energetically feeds himself on that sh**t.

If he was forced into a more “presidential” behavior it probably wouldn’t be as fun being evil for him. The fun is in exhibiting it to everyone and making tons of people mad, so that he can feel more powerful or something.

Of the 3 big LatAm countries, he really was supposed to be the international darling of western media because of the neoliberal economic positions, since Mexico and Argentina are currently led by the left. And I do usually think that even though US current leaders are ideologically much closer to Lula than to Bolsonaro, the geopolitics of having a more neutral and multilateral Brazil is not very appealing to them in comparison with having US-submissive Trump bootlicker Bolsonaro. But what we see happening is the opposite, he’s by far the most hated of the three.

And yet what you see everywhere is him getting trashed to high heavens lmao. But ESPECIALLY on the West (US + Europe). The international brand constructed by Bolsonaro is locked and sealed because he openly antagonized and provoked international leaders and people in the same way he always antagonized and provoked the left here for 30 years.

The most I see of international praise for him is from delusional sectors from the Latin American right convinced that his strongman model is the solution to erasing the left in their countries (see: Fujimoristas in Peru, or angry anti-Peronist Argentinians). Someone needs to warn them that Bolsonaro is actually reviving the left with how hated he is.

If the right wants to be strong they need to unite on a party and a clear platform without the authoritarian fascist stuff. But it’s a long term and difficult job that they don’t have patience to invest in. The PT managed to be an extremely resilient party, getting 45% (!!!) in their absolute worst moment in history when everyone sounded to be against them (if you were PT defender in 2018 you could be spanked on the street). But it took almost 15 years of losses in order to gain penetration within marginalized sectors of society that are always ignored, before they could actually win the presidency.

The right is way more disorganized and less rational even though they’re more powerful imo. They sometimes unite under a random candidate from a “who??” party (PRN in 1989, PSL in 2018), who then is a complete failure partially because of lack of a strong party structure that gives them support both internally in congress and with bases outside. And then they are able to do almost nothing, besides not really lasting too long in power. Bolsonaro knows this is his fate and that’s why he wants a coup, it’s the only opportunity for him to save himself.

Like them or not (some of the more radical right-wingers now claim they’re too “moderate”) PSDB still represents the only successful project that the right managed to put into power. A good project isn’t one that you like more on paper, but the one that is viable and that gets to be done. And as I said before, never in the history of this country economic neoliberal policies advanced so much as they did in the 90s.

Things is, the right is often way more obsessed with their hate for the left (including their successes) than with forming their own project of a country and more importantly, creating a line of dialogue with society to discuss it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Bolsonaro is in the hospital with stomach pains

🦀 time? (not holding my breath but…)

[SnowLabrador]

Bolsonaro is in the hospital with stomach pains

🦀 time? (not holding my breath but…)

I say so. He's killed over half a million of his own citizens. I'm not saying I want him to die, but I certainly don't feel sympathy for him.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro is in the hospital with stomach pains

🦀 time? (not holding my breath but…)

I see this just a populist media spectacle. He’s sick but will hype that up and use that to gain sympathy like he used it in 2018. The public pictures from him in the hospital are especially designed for that, what other public figures release their images in the hospital bed? lmao

He needs the victim narrative back from 2018 to counterbalance his popularity loss and deconstruction of image caused by the COVID Investigation commitee in congress.

[buritobr]

Today, finally I got my first dose of AstraZeneca.

Until now, 42% of the Brazilian population received at least the first dose of a Covid vaccine.

[buritobr]

Poder Data 360 Poll July 19-21

Bolsonaro's administration evaluation
26% good/very good
15% regular
56% bad/very bad

Results are almost the same of two weeks ago

[buritobr]

Again, lots of people went to the streets in many Brazilian cities in order to demand the impeachment of Jair Bolsonaro. I went to the protest downtown Rio de Janeiro.
There are a lot of impeachment requests. The proceeding starts only if the president of the House Arthur Lira accepts. But now, Lira is a Bolsonaro's ally. Besides it is necessary 2/3 of the votes in both houses, it means, 342 in the House (there are 513 representatives) and 54 in the Senate (there are 81 senators). That's why, the pressure in the streets is necessary
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/24/out-bolsonaro-more-brazil-protests-over-covid-crisis

[buritobr]

Instituto Ranking Poll, Rio de Janeiro state, July 18-22

Governor: Marcelo Freixo 24.3%, Martha Rocha 14.0%, Claudio Castro 12.2%

President: Lula 34.1%, Jair Bolsonaro 31.4%, others ~15%

https://www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br/essencial/marcelo-freixo-lidera-pesquisa-de-intencao-de-voto-para-o-governo-do-rio-de-janeiro/
https://www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br/essencial/lula-venceria-no-rio-casa-de-bolsonaro-diz-pesquisa/