Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[CumbrianLefty]

And I believe that dooming such as the above isn't at all helpful.

No reason at all why Lula can't triumph (without him it would be less rosy I agree)

[buritobr]

I believe Bolsonaro will be re-elected. I know that politics in Brazil aren't the same as politics in the USA, but we live in the darkest timeline. Say bye-bye to any serious efforts to tackle climate change succeeding, or COVID ending.

The probability of his reelection is low but not zero. It is possible. All the adults will receive the vaccine shots until October 2021. Probably, the pandemic will not be the most important issue in 2022. His administration is a catastrophe, but since the output is lower than the potential output, there is some iddle capacity, and so, some growth is possible to happen in 2022. China is recovering, and so, the price of the soybean and of the sugar is increasing again, and this is good (in the short term) for the Brazilian economy.
Besides, the 200th aniversary of the Brazilian independence will take place on September 7th 2022. The first round of the election will take place on October 2nd 2022. This is an advantage for the incumbent. I learned in this forum that Geral Ford benefited from the 200th aniversary of the US in 1976. He was much behind Carter, but he could close the gap after the 4th of July.

[Red Velvet]

Missy is getting desperate:

https://www.twitter.com/brunnosarttori/status/1407021012500332544

But the funniest part of the video is Carla Zambelli following her leader and also taking her mask off after he does it 

[PSOL]

So for what reason did Flavio Dino leave PCdoB?

[Red Velvet]

So for what reason did Flavio Dino leave PCdoB?

New rules that are being increasingly implemented will limit parties access to funding and TV propaganda time. That is stimulating smaller parties to fuse with bigger ones in order to have access to that money and TV time. New rules establish a minimum electoral requirement in order to have access to those things (like, minimum % of the vote for congress in at least a certain number of states, etc).

PCdoB will eventually fuse with PSB, the party where Dino is migrating to. Even PSOL is under risk of not meeting new rules and losing those things. The left-wing parties that don’t face risk are PT, PDT and PSB.

Freixo has even left PSOL too and joined PSB, like Flávio Dino. PSOL has an energetic base of voters but the party is kinda chaotic because of its uncompromising nature even if the politicians in it are great. PSB is becoming this neutral big tent left party with the more socialist figures like Flavio Dino and the more liberal corporate friendly ones like Tabata Amaral (who got trashed by the left for voting in favor of neoliberal reforms) while there is an ideological clash between PT and PDT (Lulismo/Petismo vs Brizolismo/Varguismo).

[buritobr]

Good news

Ricardo Salles, the Ministry of Environment who hates the environment resigned. He was found in a scandal related to the permission of the exports of wood collected through a ilegal way in the Amazon Forest.

[Red Velvet]

https://www.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1408020715975106563?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

Marcelo Freixo now being polled with his new party PSB, instead of PSOL.

[buritobr]

https://www.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1408020715975106563?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

Marcelo Freixo now being polled with his new party PSB, instead of PSOL.

This same poll shows that Lula is leading the vote for president in Rio de Janeiro. He is polling better than Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

In 2018, PSOL had 2.85% of the vote for the House. This is enough to have federal funding.

However, PSOL should take care to keep (or to increase this vote). The party lost Jean Wyllys and Marcelo Freixo. They need to use other stars to attract more votes. In Rio de Janeiro, Chico Alencar and Tarsício Motta should run for the House. In São Paulo, 2 representatives already attract votes: Sâmia Bonfim and Ivan Valente.

[Red Velvet]

https://www.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1408260435262967813?ref_src=twsrc%5E...
Ipec is the new Ibope (alongside Datafolha, one of the most traditional Brazilian polling institutes for elections).

It’s showing a Lula win already in the 1st round, without a runoff. Thatsomething he didn’t even manage to do in the 00s, both of his two victories happened with a runoff! Only president since redemocratization to have won in 1st round was FHC in both of his terms in the 90s.

That’s impressive but it reflects how much Bolsonaro is absolutely hated by Brazilians nowadays. That polarization (which Brazilian right created!) combined with the Supreme Court clearing Lula’s name, was decisive in shifting the mood of the nation.

Bolsonaro is also about to face new problems in the future… Bad administration combined with environmental natural events resulted in a big risk of lack of energy problems, which could lead to voluntary blackouts in order to save energy, something we don’t see since late FHC 2nd term in 2001, which was his most unpopular moment!

The confusing privatization of Eletrobras also has the potential for worsening things up, leading to higher energy prices for the consumer. Even people who were defending the privatization of that company changed their discourse to a more negative opinion because congress included a bunch of unrelated stuff as conditions to the privatization (basically, multiple powerful interests wanting to assure they will have some share of control over the company). I’ve even seen Globo, biggest Brazilian media, which always was enthusiastic about the neoliberal reforms and privatizations, be somewhat critical of this particular one and how it happened in the terms it did.

COVID investigation comittee is also on fire, pressing the Bolsonaro government a lot this week. I haven’t followed it so much but apparently there’s a recent important discovery of a document that evidences corruption in the process of buying Covaxin Indian vaccines. There was giant pressure from the government to buy those for a much larger and absurd prices while the safety and efficiency of that specific vaccine wasn’t clear. At the same time, the process of buying Pfizer vaccines was sabotaged by the government on purpose, with ELEVEN selling proposals by Pfizer simply being ignored by Bolsonaro.

Mayyyybe this could lead to complications to Bolsonaro on a criminal level but I’m not really sure to say that it will or it won’t happen. Heard rumors of TSE possibly making him ineligible as well? Sometimes things in this country can be exhausting, like an unpredictable tv series with tons of plots and twists. So I don’t dare to make any predictions about where these investigations will lead or if there will be any accountability for the crimes of the agents involved.

[CumbrianLefty]

Wasn't there a poll just the other day that had Bolsonaro and Lula neck and neck?

What's going on??

[Red Velvet]

Wasn't there a poll just the other day that had Bolsonaro and Lula neck and neck?

What's going on??

Polling methods. Ipec and Datafolha are more trustworthy because they ask on the streets, being more representative imo. The others are done by telephone and I think that limits your reach in some demographic levels.

[SnowLabrador]

Bolsonaro will win in 2022, and nothing will change my mind.

[buritobr]

For those who understand this slang: Bolsonaro's potato is baking
The inquiry in the Senate was created in order to investigate the mismanagement of the pandemic. Now, it was found possibility of corruption in the purchase of Indian vaccine Covaxin.

Well, all the mismanagement of the pandemic was much worse than a simple corruption scandal. 500K people died, maybe twice as much if the pandemic were better managed. But the discovery of a possible corruption scandal makes the situation of Bolsonaro worse.

[SnowLabrador]

For those who understand this slang: Bolsonaro's potato is baking
The inquiry in the Senate was created in order to investigate the mismanagement of the pandemic. Now, it was found possibility of corruption in the purchase of Indian vaccine Covaxin.

Well, all the mismanagement of the pandemic was much worse than a simple corruption scandal. 500K people died, maybe twice as much if the pandemic were better managed. But the discovery of a possible corruption scandal makes the situation of Bolsonaro worse.

We already knew about Bolsonaro's corruption scandals prior to the 2018 election. I'm not convinced this will move the needle.

[Red Velvet]

For those who understand this slang: Bolsonaro's potato is baking
The inquiry in the Senate was created in order to investigate the mismanagement of the pandemic. Now, it was found possibility of corruption in the purchase of Indian vaccine Covaxin.

Well, all the mismanagement of the pandemic was much worse than a simple corruption scandal. 500K people died, maybe twice as much if the pandemic were better managed. But the discovery of a possible corruption scandal makes the situation of Bolsonaro worse.

Today was the end of his government. The COVID investigation comittee was on fire and it was revealed that Bolsonaro knew that the leader of his government in congress was involved with schemes that were taking away public money used for the response to the pandemic. Bolsonaro did nothing even though he knew this was happening.

Luís Miranda, congressman who denounced this conversation, had to go through 7 hours of inquiry before finally giving away the name of the person Bolsonaro talked about in the conversation he had with him. It was Ricardo Barros, leader of Bolsonaro government in congress. Luís Miranda was super scared to give that detail but he eventually did in the very end. I hope he receives lots of protection in order to not be “suicided”.

It’s over. Finally over. Idk if impeachment will happen or not, but Bolsonaro government is over even if he stays until the end of 2022. It will be a zombie government like Dilma’s 2nd term was in 2015-2016, one that she had no power at all. And that’s IF he is lucky enough to be there for one more year.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The confusing privatization of Eletrobras also has the potential for worsening things up, leading to higher energy prices for the consumer. Even people who were defending the privatization of that company changed their discourse to a more negative opinion because congress included a bunch of unrelated stuff as conditions to the privatization (basically, multiple powerful interests wanting to assure they will have some share of control over the company). I’ve even seen Globo, biggest Brazilian media, which always was enthusiastic about the neoliberal reforms and privatizations, be somewhat critical of this particular one and how it happened in the terms it did.

If I'm remembering the right bill it included clauses on completely unrelated issues in comically corrupt ways. There was a subsidy for bus companies owned by Senators and also a ban on anyone competing with these companies. Absolute nonsense.

The only thing going for Bolsonaro right now is his ability to placate the Center and delay the election. A more interesting question is what happens when Bolsonaro is gone, considering he glues together both supporters and enemies. I have a hard time imagining ex-Bolsonaro voters just going back to voting PSDB.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Who would the right’s candidate be if Bolsonaro is impeached? Is there a chance that he doesn’t run for reelection if he’s not impeached?

[Red Velvet]

The only thing going for Bolsonaro right now is his ability to placate the Center and delay the election. A more interesting question is what happens when Bolsonaro is gone, considering he glues together both supporters and enemies. I have a hard time imagining ex-Bolsonaro voters just going back to voting PSDB.

Oh I do too. I think anti-PT sentiment made a lot of people to buy Bolsonaro angry anti-establishment narrative, thinking they were destroying PT for the sake of their short-term immediate ambitions, but they were actually destroying PSDB in the medium to long term.

And like them or not, PSDB since the redemocratization has been the counterpoint to PT, it’s main rival. Most privatizations and neoliberal policies in this country were established in the 90s during their reign. Before it, the military always had the nationalistic approach to the economy in the military regime and prior to that there was the populist period with strong Getúlio Vargas influence. And then after the 90s you had four successive PT victories in the 00s and first half of the 2010s.

So I don’t consider that it was a smart strategy for some of the more “intellectual” right-wingers to simply drop the PSDB as establishment trash to join Bolsonaro crazy narrative. Their hate for PT after winning four consecutive times (last one being very polarized election) made them have this main goal of taking it out immediately no matter what. Including dropping an established strong party like PSDB and its structure to join crazy man who channeled their anger against the PT and the political system.

If they were so angry and energized after the 2014 loss, it would have been smarter to just let Dilma collapse by herself. More four years and PT’s image would sink at 2018 much deeper at the mud because of the economy crisis. The focus on the economy would give PSDB a landslide 2018 victory and they would be favorites to win in 2022 as well.

Instead, PSDB, its voters and also all the media chose to use disingenuous “corruption” concerns to motivate the early ousting of the 1st female president who was probably one of the most honest leader that passed in Brasília. Her problem was tons of incompetence in dealing with the economy, but people acted like she was being judged by all the system corruption because that’s what they were most angry about. It made all the process forced, to have her judged by all those crooks in the congress (who are never held accountable for anything!). Also, the treatment given to Lula in his trial and jailing is something I never thought it would be given to any president in the country, something that isn’t even done to congressmen accused of much more terrible stuff than Lula ever was. It was clear they were also pressing hard for political motives, even if I don’t necessarily think he was a saint either.

All this gave the left the very base of a narrative to work with. And then these people who campaigned for the Lula arrest elected Bolsonaro, who put the judge responsible for the arrest as his minister, which sealed the fate of the Brazilian right in losing the narrative dispute in the long term. Domestically and internationally. You can’t support a notorious villain who always behaved in a destructive manner and think that’s great long-term strategy. But they weren’t thinking on the long-term, they wanted to burn things down and the agents with more fascist characteristics probably also hoped that Bolsonaro would stay forever in power through force or be competent to establish a coup or something. That kind of authoritarian mind-of-thought that you can achieve all you want by brute force.

The result of all this is a precocious revival of the left. Like I said, in the alternative timeline in which the right was less impulsive, PSDB would have won in 2018 and 2022 and if they managed to do a competent job, they would be looking good for 2026 as well. Instead, the PT left will win in 2022 and frankly, they are looking good for the future as well because PSDB is currently destroyed on a federal level (5% in the polls) and Bolsonaro is the main representative of the right now. But he’s way too hated to win anything against anyone after his incendiary government, making the long term scenario be a polarization of the populist Bolsonaro-friendly right vs a revived PT left which is now able to call themselves as the “pragmatic” and “smart” option simply because they aren’t Bolsonaro. That is Heaven scenario for PT, they could continue their reign for a long time.

The radicalization of the Brazilian right represented their destruction. PSDB appeal over PT was their pragmatism on the economy especially, selling the right as the more responsible option. No one can now call the right “responsible” with Bolsonaro as their main representative. They wanted to destroy PT but they actually saved it from its errors and gave them a fast redemption. People are very nostalgic about the idea of late Lula years these days.

IMO, the path for rebuilding a strong right would be building things from the very base instead of betting on quick options. It could be through a revival of PSDB or even by joining a new serious party with clear ideological-driven lines. But it would need lots of people to dump Bolsonaro and I’m not really sure that will ever happen. It COULD happen, if Bolsonaro keeps getting involved in even worse stuff for the next year, but I suspect he will always have something between at least 10%-20% of support, while the others who voted for him but regretted are still lost and scattered in regards what they really want as a collective project (instead of the adventure they bet on) and how to properly confront Bolsonaro in order to take away his right-wing protagonism. What joined all these people was their hate for PT but that proved to not be enough in the construction of a good alternative that is sustainable, it only worked to stop PT consecutive victories in one specific election because that was their only real goal.

[CumbrianLefty]

Bolsonaro will win in 2022, and nothing will change my mind.

Some people here thought the Tories would win in 1997 until the exit poll dropped.

(and even after that in some hardened cases)

[buritobr]

For those who understand this slang: Bolsonaro's potato is baking
The inquiry in the Senate was created in order to investigate the mismanagement of the pandemic. Now, it was found possibility of corruption in the purchase of Indian vaccine Covaxin.

Well, all the mismanagement of the pandemic was much worse than a simple corruption scandal. 500K people died, maybe twice as much if the pandemic were better managed. But the discovery of a possible corruption scandal makes the situation of Bolsonaro worse.

Today was the end of his government. The COVID investigation comittee was on fire and it was revealed that Bolsonaro knew that the leader of his government in congress was involved with schemes that were taking away public money used for the response to the pandemic. Bolsonaro did nothing even though he knew this was happening.

Luís Miranda, congressman who denounced this conversation, had to go through 7 hours of inquiry before finally giving away the name of the person Bolsonaro talked about in the conversation he had with him. It was Ricardo Barros, leader of Bolsonaro government in congress. Luís Miranda was super scared to give that detail but he eventually did in the very end. I hope he receives lots of protection in order to not be “suicided”.

It’s over. Finally over. Idk if impeachment will happen or not, but Bolsonaro government is over even if he stays until the end of 2022. It will be a zombie government like Dilma’s 2nd term was in 2015-2016, one that she had no power at all. And that’s IF he is lucky enough to be there for one more year.

Maybe it is too early to celebrate. When minister of Justice Sergio Moro resigned in April 2020 because Jair Bolsonaro wanted to change the director of the Federal Police in Rio de Janeiro in order to protect his son, many people believed it was the end of Bolsonaro.
But, of course, his reelection is becoming even harder. Even if Bolsonaro finishes the term, there is the possibility of he stays out of the runoff in 2022 if there were only one candidate of the left and one candidate of the traditional right, so that the votes are not split.

[buritobr]

Representatives, most of them from left-wing parties but also some from right-wing parties, sent a request for the start of a Bolsonaro's impeachment trial for the president of the House Artur Lira. There were many requests to start an impeachment trial, but this one summarizes all cases of misconduct done by Bolsonaro. However, Artur Lira will ignore this request. He has the power to start the impeachment trial, but he won't do it because he is Bolsonaro's ally. Probably, he will do something only if Bolsonaro's situation becomes not sustainable.

[Red Velvet]

Brazil has its Pete Buttigieg: Eduardo Leite, Governor of Rio Grande do Sul state and one of PSDB hopefuls for 2022 presidency, has come out as gay.

https://mobile.twitter.com/g1/status/1410756557047054336

“Pete Buttigieg” not only because it’s new to maybe have someone from a big party who is gay possibly running for President. But also because he’s from PSDB, which we associate with neoliberalism. I can already imagine some gay progressives voting for him even if he’s right-wing because of representation lmao.

That said, I think it’s very amazing for a state Governor to publicly come out as gay in these times. It’s evidence of how the country evolved a lot in these past years, despite Bolsonaro. Eduardo Leite isn’t my candidate but out of all of PSDB options, I hope now he wins the party nomination because if it must be a PSDB neoliberal running the country, I would rather have one that makes sure the Palácio do Planalto will have rainbow lights during LGBT pride! #representation

[NewYorkExpress]

Bolsoanro says he won't hand over the Presidency if there is any electoral fraud.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said on Thursday he would hand over power to whoever wins next year's presidential election cleanly - but not if there is any fraud.

His comments will do little to dispel the concerns of his critics, who fear that the far-right former army captain will not accept any election loss in next year's vote. Bolsonaro is almost certain to face his political nemesis, former leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Polls show Lula ahead.

"I'll hand over the presidential sash to whoever wins the election cleanly," Bolsonaro said in a weekly address via social media. "Not with fraud."

Since his 2018 election victory, Bolsonaro has made baseless allegations of voter fraud in Brazil, which critics say could lay the groundwork to challenge upcoming elections in the same vein as his political idol, former U.S. President Donald Trump.

[buritobr]

Eduardo Leite is the first state governor to be open gay. Good news he admitted. I don't have a positive view on him. In the runoff in 2018, he considered Bolsonaro the lesser of the evils. Jair Bolsonaro is homophobic. Fernando Haddad tried to introduce anti LGBT discrimination lessons at school when he was minister of education during Lula's administration. But well, this is diversity in politics: there are politicians we like and politicians we don't like who are members of minorities.

Most of the Brazilians are not prejudiced about homosexuality, but few politicians admitt in public they are homosexuals and few politicians try to introduce anti-discrimination lessons at schools because the evangelicals are well organized and they are swing voters.