Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[Red Velvet]

Instituto Mapa poll

Runoff:

Lula 51,4%
Bolsonaro 31,5%
Blank/Null 11,7%
Don’t Know 5,5%


1st round:

Lula (center-left) 36,8%
Bolsonaro (right) 26,8%
Sérgio Moro (right) 5,1%
Ciro Gomes (center-left) 5,0%
Luciano Huck (center) 4,5%
João Doria (center-right) 3,3%
Luiz Mandetta (center-right) 2,7%
João Amoedo (libertarian) 2,6%

[buritobr]

In many large cities, there were demonstrations for the impeachment of Bolsonaro. They were the first big left-wing demonstrations since the beggining of the pandemic.

During these 15 months, many leaders of left-wing parties considered that it would be contradictory criticize the lack of policies related to the pandemic and call for demonstrations. Many protests during this period were made online, or with cacerolazzos at the windows of flats or using cars.

But today, the left-wing parties decided to call for the demonstrations. The risk of transmission is low in open spaces, where everybody is using mask and keeping safe distance.

[It’s so Joever]

Definitely looks bad for Bolsonaro right now. It’s not over, but certainly hopeful.

[Red Velvet]

There was a police reaction of brutality in the city of Recife, in the state of Pernambuco. Even a female city council member got targeted.

International media is making this more news than Brazilian media. You would think it’s because they want to be “impartial” and want to give the same low coverage as past pro-Bolsonaro manifests, but I remember things were very different in mid-2010s with all the anti-PT hysteria and the maximum coverage they gave to a bunch of right-wingers on the streets.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If Chile and Peru  up at least Brazil can save us.

[Red Velvet]

Brazilian media is one of the most disgraceful things I’ve seen. They’re different because they try to sell themselves as “impartial” but they’re super partisan based on what they choose to say and what they ignore.

Of the major printed newspapers, only “Folha de São Paulo” covered it with the necessary space. “O Globo” and “Estadão” gave more focus to boring stuff unrelated to yesterday, like Home Office effects on touristic cities.

On TV media, there was also little space given by Globonews and CNN Brasil. CNN is one of the most popular broadcasters between Bolsonaro supporters, not because they will openly kiss their ass, but because they will often put to debate a prepared person saying logical stuff based on data and a crazy right-winger saying conspiracy theories, acting like that is really impartial because they’re hearing two equally opposite sides.

Open TV media isn’t better. Globo naturally underplayed it as well, giving it the same space they did to smaller pro-Bolsonaro protests a month ago. Record is much worse, it lied about the main reason of the protests and just said they were organized to demand a raise in the emergency checks without giving it bigger coverage.

I feel like most countries are kinda like this regardless if they’re a better or worse version. We’re all being fed with propaganda. International media is always a better tool to understand what is going in your own country than Domestic lying media who will always be responding to people above. Internationally, you don’t have these hidden country elite interests controlling so much, which is why foreigners become a better guide.

These protests were the biggest news in yesterday’s general website cover of The Guardian and Le Monde.

[Red Velvet]

NEWS: Bolsonaro has made a deal to join PATRIOTAS (Patriots Party) for the 2022 election.

Bolsonaro was in PSL (Social Liberal Party) but left it in November 2019, months after elected, because of internal disputes and faction conflicts he started. He has been party-less since then and had announced plans of creating his own party: Aliança pelo Brasil (ApB), but has given up because you need a minimum of public signatures in order to start a political party in Brazil and it eventually became evident last year that he wouldn’t be able to get enough signatures in time.

So now he’s opting to join an existing political party just like he had done with PSL prior to his election. The Patriot Party is a smallish party, like PSL also was, but has gained more relevance in past years after their rebrand (Before changing to Patriot, their previous name was National Ecological Party). Difference is that PSL only became far-right because Bolsonaro joined it, bringing lots of far-right elected people with him, but the party leadership wasn’t extremist, which is why conflicts started.

With Patriotas I suppose it will be different because it has been a far-right party for some time already, since their rebranding, so maybe there won’t be many conflicts between Bolsonaro and the party like there was with PSL? Will Bolsonaro even get elected in order for us to know the answer to this question? Let’s wait and see.

[President Johnson]

Probably Lula is most likely to beat Bolsonoaro. I'd like some younger center-left politician, but Bolsonaro is a fascist and whoever stands the greatest chance should challenge him.

[buritobr]

Probably Lula is most likely to beat Bolsonoaro. I'd like some younger center-left politician, but Bolsonaro is a fascist and whoever stands the greatest chance should challenge him.

I would like to see Lula replaced by someone younger as the most important leader of the Brazilian left too. The problem is that no one other than Lula in the left is popular in the group of voters who don't have a college degree. Fernando Haddad, Ciro Gomes, Guilherme Boulos, Marcelo Freixo and Manuela dÁvila are more popular in the very educated segment of the middle class.

However, I would vote for Lula not only if the runoff is between him and Bolsonaro. I would also vote for Lula if the runoff is between him and someone from the non Bolsonaro right, like João Doria, Eduardo Leite, Tasso Jereissati and Luciano Huck.

[buritobr]

Maybe, after the disaster of Bolsonaro, the left performs better in 2022. Guilherme Boulos is leading the polls for governor of São Paulo. Marcelo Freixo is leading the polls for governor of Rio de Janeiro. Boulos and Freixo will probably be the PSOL candidates for governor of their states.
https://revistaforum.com.br/politica/boulos-aparece-em-primeiro-para-o-governo-de-sp-em-cenario-com-haddad-marcio-franca-e-skaf-diz-atlas-politico2/
https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2021/06/02/marcelo-freixo-lidera-pesquisa-de-intencao-de-voto-para-o-governo-do-rio-de-janeiro?fbclid=IwAR1LBYphOH2g3IWcIuIifIGp4IWdO6gtW7O5B-Wl-MaTe60IkRUYBA4UGHw
PSOL is divided concerning the candidate for president in 2022. The moderate and majority wing think that PSOL should endorse Lula already in the 1st round, in order to avoid the split of the left-wing vote. This split could cause a runoff between center-right and Bolsonaro (similar to France 2002). The far left wing considers that PSOL should have a candidate in the 1st round and they are considering the possibility of the very left-wing representative Glauber Braga.

[buritobr]

The 2021 Copa America (that would be 2020 Copa America) would be hosted by Argentina and Colombia. Both countries declined due to the pandemic and all the crisis related to the pandemic.

Brazil will host the tournment, as if there were no serious problems here. Most of the soccer managers ("cartolas") in Brazil are very close to Bolsonaro. The games will be played in empty stadiums, but the biggest problem is not the virus spread during the games. The biggest problem is that we should have focus in other priorities.

[buritobr]

Brazil uses electronic voting machines in every precint. The proceeding of the votes is the fastest of the countries which have >100M inhabitants. The machines have a flopy disk. They are not connected to the Internet. There is no danger of a hacker attack. It is possible to make auditing of the polls.
However, Bolsonaro and his cattle are giving alegations that these polls are not safe, that frauds might occur. Actually, the electronic machines are much safer than paper ballots. He is demading that the votes casted in the machine should be printed and that these papers should be counted in order to check if they match to the electronic result. Of course, there will be no time to add a printer in every machine until October 2022. Besides, the costs would be very high. The results of the paper count would not be equal to the electronic results in 100% of the precints because in some precints, someone could loose some pieces of paper.
The consequence of this distrust would be an excuse to Bolsonaro and his cattle create a turmoil in 2022 if he looses, like Trump did this year and Keiko Fujimori is doing now. In the US, however, the votes Trump's base didn't trust were paper votes sent by mail.

Some countries don't trust in elections without paper. The Supreme Court in Germany didn't alow electronic vote. But there was never evidence that electronic voting in Brazil was rigged. This distrust made by Bolsonaro is useful to weaken the democracy in Brazil.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Poder Data 2022 poll:

1st round

Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 33%
Lula (Worker's Party - PT) 31%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT) 10%
Luciano Huck (no party) 4%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM) 4%
João Amoedo (New Party - NOVO) 3%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 3%
blank/null: 7%
don't know: 5%

2nd round scenarios

Bolsonaro 37% vs. Lula 48%
Bolsonaro 35% vs. Huck 45%
Bolsonaro 36% vs. Ciro 44%
Bolsonaro 39% vs. Doria 39%
Lula 45% vs. Huck 24%
Lula 42% vs. Ciro 22%

[buritobr]

Lula's margin against Bolsonaro decreased from April to June.
The other possible candidates did better in June than they did in April.

[Red Velvet]

Poder Data 2022 poll:

1st round

Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 33%
Lula (Worker's Party - PT) 31%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT) 10%
Luciano Huck (no party) 4%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM) 4%
João Amoedo (New Party - NOVO) 3%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 3%
blank/null: 7%
don't know: 5%

2nd round scenarios

Bolsonaro 37% vs. Lula 48%
Bolsonaro 35% vs. Huck 45%
Bolsonaro 36% vs. Ciro 44%
Bolsonaro 39% vs. Doria 39%
Lula 45% vs. Huck 24%
Lula 42% vs. Ciro 22%

I always imagine how centrists from the outside see these elections lmao. Like, who they would like?

Between 3 leading candidates:

1. Lula - Was part of the pink tide in LatAm,  got jailed but then the whole process was declared biased, is one of the most known leftist leaders in the world.

2. Bolsonaro - Part of the populist right trend, loves Donald Trump, very conservative on cultural issues, scandals on the news every week.

3. Ciro - Tries to dispute the protagonism of the left and attacks Lula for being “too neoliberal” during his 00s term, especially in regards deindustrialization.

Then there is all the people I would expect centrists to like, distant from the top 3:

- Luciano Huck at 4th, a TV host that never held public office, even if he was painting himself as the most centrist option (socially progressive, economically center-right).

- Henrique Mandetta at 5th, an average and boring center-right establishment candidate that is only being considered because he stood up against Bolsonaro when he was his Health minister at the beginning of the COVID pandemic.

- João Amoedo at 6th as the Libertarian option that edgy right-wingers who are more intellectual and usually from big cities like.

- João Doria in 7th (!!!) as the PSDB candidate, the center-right party that used to be the main representative of Brazilian right before it radicalized and shifted to Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

Marcelo Freixo was one of the most important PSOL leaders. He used to be state representative of Rio de Janeiro, and now he is a federal representative. He ran for mayor of the municipality of Rio de Janeiro in 2012 and 2016 and he was the 2nd place the two times. He never ran for governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro, because the elections for governor and for representative take place at the same time.
Today, he decided to leave PSOL and join PSB, a more moderate party. He will run for governor of Rio de Janeiro in 2022. He considered that he would not be competitive in PSOL, since far-left groups inside the party don't support broad coalitions. Probably, PT will endorse Freixo, who met Lula yesterday. Freixo's wife joined PT. Freixo will be advised by many experts and some of them are not very leftist. In economics, he will be advised by the young rising left-wing star Laura Carvalho but he will also be advised by former PSDB economist André Lara Resende. Both economists had a PhD in the New School of Social Research in NYC. In law enforcement, Freixo will be advised by former minister Raul Jungmann, who worked for Temer's administration (2016-2018).
Freixo's plan is not to have a left vs right contest, but a civilization vs barbarian contest. Probably, his opponent will be someone endorsed by Bolsonaro.

I am following the thread about Germany and I am reading about internal disputes inside the Linke. PSOL is the brazilian copy of the Linke and it is facing similar problems. Both parties don't have a single program, they are umbrellas of different left-wing organizations, and each of these organizations try to control the party.
PSOL lost 3 important members in Rio de Janeiro in the last month: former vereador Renato Cinco left PSOL because he is not considering this party left-wing enough. Marcelo Freixo and Jean Wyllys left PSOL because they are considering this party too left-wing. Jean Wyllys, who was an important federal representative, joined PT.
Despite internal disputes, Freixo didn't left PSOL because of these disputes. According to the reaction of his fellows, it is possible to conclude that there was no fight. He will keep a good relation with PSOL. But he thinks he will be more competititive in a more centrist party.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

XP Ipespe 2022 poll:

1st round

Spontaneous poll:

Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 24%
Lula (Worker's Party - PT) 24%
Ciro Gomes(Democratic Labour Party - PDT) 3%
Sérgio Moro (no party) 1%
João Amoêdo (New Party - NOVO) 1%
Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party - PSOL) 1%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 1%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats -DEM) 0%
Fernando Haddad (Worker's Party - PT) 0%

Don't know/don't answer: 36%
Blank/null: 8%

1st round

Stimulated poll:

Lula 32%
Bolsonaro 28%
Sérgio Moro 7%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Luciano Huck 4%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta 3%
João Doria 3%
Guilherme Boulos 2%
DK/DA/None/Blank/Null: 15%

2nd round

Lula 45% vs. Bolsonaro 36%
Ciro Gomes 41% vs. Bolsonaro 37%
Sérgio Moro 32% vs. Bolsonaro 32%
Luciano Huck 34% vs. Bolsonaro 37%
Guilherme Boulos 30% vs. Bolsonaro 30%
João Doria 33% vs. Bolsonaro39%
Lula 43% vs. Sérgio Moro 35%

The XP Ipespe poll, as well as a few other Brazilian polls, is still doing polls with some names that have already abndoned their candidacies, such as former federal judge Sérgio Moro, leftist actvist Guilherme Boulos and businessman and president of the New Party (NOVO), João Amoêdo, who today declared that he will not run in 2022, unlike the Poder Data survey that I have shown yesterday.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1403390200059936772

[PSOL]

In a post-Lula Brazil, could Flavio Dino possibly have a path to the presidency. The information I’m getting is that he’s pretty pragmatic and well-liked in office.

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1403390200059936772

Zema is the current governor (elected in the Bolsonaro 2018; he aligned with him) and the left actually really likes Kalil (Belo Horizonte mayor) in Minas.

It will probably be polarized between the two.

[buritobr]

If they are tied now, good news for Khalil. Of course Zema has the advantage of being incumbent, and so, 16 months before the election, more people know him. During the campaign, more people of the countryside will hear about Khalil. In Belo Horizonte, where people are ruled both by Zema and Khalil, the mayor has a big margin.

Good news for Lula he is leading against Bolsonaro in Minas Gerais. During the New Republic (1985-present), Minas Gerais is the bellwether state. All winning presidential candidates had the majority of votes in this state. The margins are usually close to the national margin. Minas Gerais is like what Ohio was until 2012.

[buritobr]

Luciano Huck and João Amoedo told that they will not run for president in 2022

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Paraná Pesquisas 2022 poll:

1st round

Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 34,3%
Lula (Worker's Party - PT)32,5%
José Luiz Datena (no party) 7,5%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT) 5,8%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 3,4%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM) 3,2%
Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement - MDB) 1,1%
Blanks/nulls: 8,6%
Don't know/don't answer: 3,6%

2nd round
Lula (Worker's Party - PT) 40,2%
Bolsonaro (no party) 40%

[buritobr]

There were very big demonstrations against Bolsonaro in Brazilian big cities
In open spaces, where everybody wear masks, the risk is low
I didn't go because the place where the demonstration was scheduled in Rio de Janeiro (Avenida Presidente Vargas) is far from my home and I would need to take the metro. Open spaces are safe, but the public transportation is not.
After everyone have the vaccine, the demonstrations will be even bigger

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/19/fresh-protests-in-brazil-against-bolsonaros-handling-of-covid-pandemic

[SnowLabrador]

I believe Bolsonaro will be re-elected. I know that politics in Brazil aren't the same as politics in the USA, but we live in the darkest timeline. Say bye-bye to any serious efforts to tackle climate change succeeding, or COVID ending.