Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[Red Velvet]

New DataFolha poll

DataFolha is the most common pollster alongside IBOPE during Brazilian election.

1st round poll:

Lula 41%
Bolsonaro 23%
Sérgio Moro 7%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Luciano Huck 4%
João Doria 3%
Henrique Mandetta 2%
João Amoedo 2%

Runoff simulations:

Lula 55% vs Bolsonaro 32%
Lula 53% vs Sérgio Moro 33%
Lula 57% vs João Doria 21%
Ciro Gomes 48% vs Bolsonaro 36%
João Doria 40% vs Bolsonaro 39%

Rejection rates (% who say they wouldn’t vote for that candidate):

Bolsonaro 54%
Lula 36%
João Doria 30%
Luciano Huck 29%
Sérgio Moro 26%
Ciro Gomes 24%

These results actually make me want to vote for Ciro more in the hopes someone in the 3rd path takes Bolsonaro out from the runoff lol.

That said, these results sound optimistic while the XP poll pessimistic. XP tends to overestimate the right and DataFolha overestimated the left in 2020 mayoral elections.

If I had to guess, reality is probably something in between. I would think Lula is definitely 1st, but not on an almost +20% lead in the 1st round. Something like Lula in the middle 30s percentage and Bolsonaro in the high 20s percentage is more likely. With Lula winning runoff with a similar margin that Bolsonaro won in 2018.

[Red Velvet]

Demographic groups that favor each candidate the most:

LULA:

- People who support Social Isolation measures during the pandemic: 58%
- People from the Northeast region: 56%
- Low education (Finished middle school): 51%
- Income less than two minimum wages per month: 47%

BOLSONARO:
- People who are normally living their regular lives during the pandemic: 36%
- Income between 5 and 10 minimum wages: 30%
- Men: 29%
- People from the South, Center-West or North regions: 28%


Interesting result that led me to believe this is overestimating the left a bit, even if I think Lula has lots of significant support in that demographic (way more than average leftist):

Evangelicals
Lula 35% vs Bolsonaro 34%

Ciro Gomes performs in his best among the people who finished university (11%) and among the richest (13%).

João Doria clearly is the weakest candidate despite the vaccine success, he hasn’t been able to translate that into vote intention.

Luciano Huck and Sergio Moro aren’t going to run and it’s embarrassing that these institutes keep pushing them as likely options.

[vitoNova]

Damn. The global experimentation with populist nationalism is coming to an end most ricki-tik.

Thank you, China.

Thank you, Chinese lab virus.

All Hail the People's Republic!

All Hail Xi Jingping!!!!!

[Red Velvet]

DataFolha also questioned Brazilians about their opinion about the Bolsonaro government:

Great/Good: 24% (-6)
Regular: 30% (+6)
Bad/Awful: 45% (+1)
No opinion: 1% (-1)

[buritobr]

Unlike the previous Datafolha polls, this poll was conducted by interviewing people at the streets and not by phone. Offline Datafolha polls are more reliable and closer to polls from other institutes made by phone. Datafolha polls made by phone used to overestimate Bolsonaro's approval rate.

[buritobr]

Details of Datafolha Poll

Total: Lula 41%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 11%

Gender
Men: Lula 42%, Bolsonaro 29%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 8%
Women: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 19%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 11%

Age
16-24: Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 18%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 8%, other 14%
25-34: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 24%, Moro 4%, Ciro Gomes 7%, other 11%
35-44: Lula 38%, Bolsonaro 26%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 9%
45-59: Lula 43%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 4%, other 11%
60-: Lula 39%, Bolsonaro 24%, Moro 9%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 11%

School
Elementary: Lula 51%, Bolsonaro 20%, Moro 4%, Ciro Gomes 2%, other 9%
High School: Lula 39%, Bolsonaro 26%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 10%
College: Lula 30%, Bolsonaro 22%, Moro 10%, Ciro Gomes 11%, other 15%

Monthy Household Income
- US$400: Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 20%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 8%
US$400-US$1000: Lula 34%, Bolsonaro 29%, Moro 9%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 12%
US$1000-US$2000: Lula 26%, Bolsonaro 30%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 10%, other 14%
US$2000-: Lula 18%, Bolsonaro 24%, Moro 10%, Ciro Gomes 13%, other 22%

Region
Southeast: Lula 36%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 7%, other 12%
South: Lula 36%, Bolsonaro 28%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 3%, other 12%
Northeast: Lula 56%, Bolsonaro 18%, Moro 3%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 6%
Center-West/North: Lula 35%, Bolsonaro 28%, Moro 12%, Ciro Gomes 4%, other 9%

Type of municipality
Metro area: Lula 38%, Bolsonaro 24%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 12%
Countryside: Lula 43%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 10%

Race
Brown: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 25%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 10%
White: Lula 32%, Bolsonaro 27%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 7%, other 13%
Black: Lula 53%, Bolsonaro 14%, Moro 5%, Ciro Gomes 4%, other 9%

Religion
Catholic: Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 19%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 10%
Evangelic: Lula 35%, Bolsonaro 34%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 4%, other 11%

other = Huck + Doria + Mandetta + Amoedo

[Red Velvet]

Lol at both Lula and Bolsonaro having better percentages with men than with women.

Kinda expected though? Lula and the PT always performed better with men, while women tended to favor more the center-right PSDB.

Then after PSDB fall and the Bolsonaro rise, things shifted in 2018. Women favored Haddad while men voted for Bolsonaro, as Haddad and the left became the more “boring” option.

I think it’s safe to say that men are more inclined to personalism and passionate rhetoric while women are kinda more centrists, against radical change.

Brazilian men are way more emotional and vote for the candidate they love, women are more controlled and think more before choosing someone.

So not a surprise that the gender gap is larger with Bolsonaro than with Lula, as Lula this time is the more “logical” and pragmatic option between the two.

Men only favor Lula more than Women by +2 (42% with Men, 40% with Women).

With Bolsonaro, men like him more by +10 (29% Men, 19% Women).

Female voters are more likely to look outside the box for a 3rd option, as they’re more reflexive of their vote. Men are more impulsive and go with the flow. Unlike Lula and Bolsonaro, every other candidate does better with women in comparison with men.

[buritobr]

Yeah.
Always when Lula ran for president, between 1989 and 2006, he had more male vote than female vote. Even in 2010, his candidate Dilma Rousseff had more male vote than female vote. It is a shock for people from other countries: a left-wing woman performed better in the group of men than in the group of women. In 2014, however, Dilma had more female voters. One of the motives is that Aécio Neves had sexist attitudes. In 2018, Haddad performed much better in the group of women. Other motive of the change was the feminist wave in Latin America, including Brazil, in the 2010s.
Lula has a group of low income elementary school male voters who don't vote for PT for other offices. In many poor municipalities in the North and Northeast in which Lula was >80% in 2006, there is no PT vereador.

Brazilian left has a problem: no leader other than Lula is able to have high popularity in the group of voters who don't have a college degree. Other PT politicians, and also PSOL, PCdoB and PDT politicians fail to have popularity in the group of voters who don't have college degree. Lula, on the other side, performs much better in the group of voters who have only elementary school.

[gerritcole]

I don’t comment cause I don’t have sh**t to say but I appreciate both of y’all for keeping me up to date with Brazil

[SnowLabrador]

I still firmly believe Bolsonaro will win re-election in 2022. He wasn't expected to win in 2018 and he did. Besides, the military is entirely behind him.

[Red Velvet]

I don’t comment cause I don’t have sh**t to say but I appreciate both of y’all for keeping me up to date with Brazil

You’re welcome, if you have any questions feel free to ask.

I still firmly believe Bolsonaro will win re-election in 2022. He wasn't expected to win in 2018 and he did. Besides, the military is entirely behind him.

He has chances but not because of the military.

The military is divided. On one hand, Bolsonaro gives them tons of representation in his government and prioritized them in terms of federal budget. He did that because he WISHES that can buy him their unconditional support. So that makes them comfortable with him.

On the other hand, by being inside his government they associate their images with his image. That includes all the anti-science BS, the antivaxx craziness, the racism and authoritarianism, etc. Which can be damaging to their reputation as a serious institution, since Bolsonaro is not a serious person.

The Brazilian military came out post-dictatorship very hated, making them pursue a more clean image. Part of that includes investment on scientific projects for example, in order to make them look like specialists on some areas. Which was helpful for them to create a new image of serious and respectable institution.

Bolsonaro is destroying all that, I mean, the participation of military actors inside the Bolsonaro government. Older upper active members specifically, are very uncomfortable with that because not only it’s making more people go back to seeing them in a similar way from the past, but it’s also giving them this new image of incompetence and stupidity. The health minister was a member of the military and he was a failure, being roasted by the media and different sectors of society.

So they’re in this position of “We don’t like how Bolsonaro is making we look super-dumb but getting privileges is cool”. They will keep being parasites inside the Bolsonaro government but so far it’s unlikely they are willing to follow him in everything he does considering his image is toxic and doesn’t give them credibility.

Actually, Bolsonaro already tried to have his coup by planning to close the Supreme Court behind doors but the main military leaders refused to do so. Which made him pissed, as he wants them to be HIS military, not the military of the country. That happened at the start of the pandemic, I think May 2020.

So I think at least so far it’s unlikely that the military is willing to completely sacrifice themselves for scum like Bolsonaro. They are more independent actors than that, if they wanted a coup they most certainly would get rid of Bolsonaro as well so that they could rule without his presence destroying their reputation and credibility.

Regarding elections, there isn’t much they can or even want to do. Bolsonaro is getting crazy with the prospects of losing election so he is pushing for congress to abolish electronic voting and to go back to paper voting, since paper vote is less safe and gives him opportunities to rig.

[CumbrianLefty]

I still firmly believe Bolsonaro will win re-election in 2022. He wasn't expected to win in 2018 and he did. Besides, the military is entirely behind him.

Is this actually true?

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro WAS expected to win in 2018. During all 2017 and 2018, he was leading the polls in which Lula was not included.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

On the other hand, Bolsonaro's victory was only guaranteed with the attack he suffered on September 6th 2018 in the muncipality of Juiz de Fora, in the state of Minas Gerais, when a former member of the Brazilian party PSOL (Socialism and Liberty Party) called Adélio Bispo de Oliveira stabbed Bolsonaro, which prevented him from appearing on television debates among presidential candidates and allowed to win the Worker's Party candidate, Fernando Haddad (who suceeded Lula with his arrest and loss of political rights), in the second round, in October 28, 2018, with 55,13% of valid votes.

[RodPresident]

Sao Paulo's mayor Bruno Covas (PSDB), 41, died today due a gastric cancer. He'll replaced by Ricardo Nunes (PMDB).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Sao Paulo's mayor Bruno Covas (PSDB), 41, died today due a gastric cancer. He'll replaced by Ricardo Nunes (PMDB).

Shame. He had a 15 year old son apparently.

[Flyersfan232]

I don’t comment cause I don’t have sh**t to say but I appreciate both of y’all for keeping me up to date with Brazil

You’re welcome, if you have any questions feel free to ask.

I still firmly believe Bolsonaro will win re-election in 2022. He wasn't expected to win in 2018 and he did. Besides, the military is entirely behind him.

He has chances but not because of the military.

The military is divided. On one hand, Bolsonaro gives them tons of representation in his government and prioritized them in terms of federal budget. He did that because he WISHES that can buy him their unconditional support. So that makes them comfortable with him.

On the other hand, by being inside his government they associate their images with his image. That includes all the anti-science BS, the antivaxx craziness, the racism and authoritarianism, etc. Which can be damaging to their reputation as a serious institution, since Bolsonaro is not a serious person.

The Brazilian military came out post-dictatorship very hated, making them pursue a more clean image. Part of that includes investment on scientific projects for example, in order to make them look like specialists on some areas. Which was helpful for them to create a new image of serious and respectable institution.

Bolsonaro is destroying all that, I mean, the participation of military actors inside the Bolsonaro government. Older upper active members specifically, are very uncomfortable with that because not only it’s making more people go back to seeing them in a similar way from the past, but it’s also giving them this new image of incompetence and stupidity. The health minister was a member of the military and he was a failure, being roasted by the media and different sectors of society.

So they’re in this position of “We don’t like how Bolsonaro is making we look super-dumb but getting privileges is cool”. They will keep being parasites inside the Bolsonaro government but so far it’s unlikely they are willing to follow him in everything he does considering his image is toxic and doesn’t give them credibility.

Actually, Bolsonaro already tried to have his coup by planning to close the Supreme Court behind doors but the main military leaders refused to do so. Which made him pissed, as he wants them to be HIS military, not the military of the country. That happened at the start of the pandemic, I think May 2020.

So I think at least so far it’s unlikely that the military is willing to completely sacrifice themselves for scum like Bolsonaro. They are more independent actors than that, if they wanted a coup they most certainly would get rid of Bolsonaro as well so that they could rule without his presence destroying their reputation and credibility.

Regarding elections, there isn’t much they can or even want to do. Bolsonaro is getting crazy with the prospects of losing election so he is pushing for congress to abolish electronic voting and to go back to paper voting, since paper vote is less safe and gives him opportunities to rig.

The Supreme Court in Brazil is very corrupt

[Red Velvet]

The Supreme Court in Brazil is very corrupt

Are they? That’s news to me. I’m very concerned now.

I think US politicians from both parties are very corrupt as well but there isn’t a system strong enough to supervise them and discover all the hidden dirt. I think democracy should completely end in the US for its well-being and best interests because clearly it’s a system that will always put crooks in the likes of Hillary and Trump into the spotlight, as it’s all an excuse for secret hidden powers to rig everything from the start.

Hopefully together we can all change this disgusting dirt ruling over the world! I’m with you.

[GALeftist]

Lula has just confirmed that he will be a candidate for President!

[buritobr]

Yesterday and today, former health minister general Eduardo Pazuello was interrogated by the senators in the pandemic inquiry. On Tuesday, former ministry pf foreign affairs Ernesto Araújo was interrogated. Since both former minnisters are still Bolsonaro's allies, their testimonials didn't hurt the president.

The testimonials from the director of Pfizer in Brazil and from former minister of health Henrique Mandetta caused bigger damage to Bolsonaro.

[Red Velvet]

Lula has just confirmed that he will be a candidate for President!

Lula 2002 propaganda:

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Lula has just confirmed that he will be a candidate for President!

My king is alive!

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

EXAME IDEIA 2022 poll:

1st round:

spontaneous poll (without saying the names of the candidates):

Lula (Worker's Party - PT)  19%
Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 17%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT) 4%
Sérgio Moro (no party) 2%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 2%
Luciano Huck (no party) 1%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM) 0,5%
Eduardo Leite (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 0,3%
Tasso Jereissati (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 0,3%
Other 0,3%
Don't know: 46%
Nobody/blank/null: 7%

2st round scenarios:
with Bolsonaro
spontaneous poll:
Bolsonaro 37% vs. Lula 45%
Bolsonaro 45% vs. Huck 39%
Bolsonaro 40% vs. Ciro Gomes 37%
Bolsonaro 40% vs. Sérgio Moro 36%
Bolsonaro 46% vs. João Doria 33%
Bolsonaro 44% vs. Tasso Jereissati 30%
Bolsonaro 44% vs. Eduardo Leite 29%
Bolsonaro 46% vs. João Amoêdo 26%
Bolsonaro 47% vs. Danilo Gentili 23%

with Lula (without Bolsonaro)
Lula 44% vs. Huck 40%
Lula 43% vs. Moro 40%
Lula 43% vs. Ciro Gomes 35%
Lula 47% vs. Eduardo Leite 30%
Lula 47% vs. Tasso Jereissati 30%
Lula 45% vs. João Doria 28%
Lula 46% vs. João Amoedo 19%
Lula 47% vs. Danilo Gentili 17%

In both scenarios, Lula beats all his opponents, with tougher victories against third-way candidates Sérgio Moro and Luciano Huck, who end up losing very little. On the other hand, Bolsonaro defeats all his opponents except Lula, which shows a third-way candidate still very weak.

[Red Velvet]

Ex-president FHC (PSDB) had a public meeting with Lula and said that if the 2022 runoff ends up being between Lula and Bolsonaro, he will easily vote for Lula.

Nice gesture after the PT and PSDB rivalry reached its peak in 2014, with Aécio Neves literally not recognizing his loss. I always respected PSDB leaders like Serra, Alckmin and FHC, even if I don’t like them politically. But I never respected Aécio.

[buritobr]

Former presidents Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Luís Inácio Lula da Silva had a meeting. Cardoso told that if the PSDB candidate fail to reach the runoff in 2022, he will endorse Lula against Bolsonaro.

Nice to see leaders who, despite the differences, try to sit and talk against a common (and horrible) enemy.