Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Poder Data 2nd round

Bolsonaro (no party) 34% vs. Lula (PT) 52%

Bolsonaro (no party) 35% vs. Huck (no party) 48%

Bolsonaro (no party) 38% vs. Ciro (PDT) 38%

Bolsonaro (no party) 38% vs. Doria (PSDB) 37%

Bolsonaro (no party) 38% vs. Moro (no party) 37%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/04/pd-intencao-presidente-14-abr-2021-9.png

[CumbrianLefty]

It will go lower (hopefully)

[Red Velvet]

Skeptical about this poll as it shows Lula winning in ALL regions and it’s still hard for me to see the Midwest and South go that strongly for him. The Midwest numbers especially, so don’t buy them. Lots of things are weird.

This poll also shows Lula winning in all demographics except MALE one and the HIGHEST INCOME one. Which is also is hard to believe, these are indeed the demographics I imagine going harder for Bolsonaro but I doubt it’s the ONLY ones.

I wonder why Female voters would favor Lula 61% vs 23% out of nowhere. It’s a more favorable margin than the Northeast one for Lula.

Previous poll from SAME institute showed the youngest being the most pro-Bolsonaro and now they’re the most pro-Lula. Doesn’t make sense.

But maybe Lula suddenly just got tons of hype after the Supreme Court decision. We need numbers from other institutes to confirm or discredit this trend.

[buritobr]

I believe in the full numbers because the other institutes are showing similar numbers.

But the numbers of the sub-groups are really very strange in Poder Data Polls. Maybe, the cause is the bias of small samples.

There is a gender gap, all the polls show it, Bolsonaro has higher approval rates in the group of men (shame to be man). But this gap showed by Poder Data is too high. Besides, Lula usually had more votes in the group of male voters too. Even in 2010, Dilma Rousseff performed better in the group of male voters than in the group of female voters (a surprise for observers from other countries, a left-wing woman had more male voters). Only in 2014 and 2018, PT performed better in the group of female voters. I believe that if Lula decides to be the candidate in 2022, he will perform better in the group of women, but the gap won't be the one Poder Data is showing.

Yes, sometimes Bolsonaro is more popular in the group of young, sometimes in the group of old people, sometimes in the group of the poor, sometimes in the group of rich. Probably, biased small samples.

[buritobr]

Supreme Court decided (8 vs 3 votes) that Moro's sentence against Lula was not valid. Now, it is almost sure that Lula will be allowed to run.

[Red Velvet]

We can’t handle things as they are until October 2022 though.

Institutions better get rid of him at least in this year. He has given MULTIPLE reasons for impeachment. Didn’t these people impeach Dilma based on the argument of “creative accountings”?

I know impeachment is a political trial and has nothing to do with fairness, but c’mon. Politically get his ass out before the destruction is completely irreversible.

The installment of the Covid parliamentary comittee of investigation is a start, I guess. But it had to be focused on the federal government only, I fear those sold-outs in congress won’t do anything.

[buritobr]

President of PSDB said that Tasso Jereissati can be the party's candidate in 2022. He was governor and senator of Ceará for a long time. He used to be Ciro Gomes's ally (maybe he is still now).
Until last week, Jereissati was not mentioned. PSDB most mentioned names were João Dória and Eduardo Leite. The party could also support Luciano Huck or a DEM candidate.
Jereissati is a member of PSDB since this party was founded in 1988. He is on the left of the average of the new party members, but it is not very hard.

[Red Velvet]

Is Bolsonaro giving up? I’m starting to think he doesn’t even care at this point by the consistency of saying nonsense stuff.

Today he compared Lula with Jesus Christ from the Bible () and said that social programs for the poor from him are like when Jesus miraculously multiplied bread and then people went after him asking for more.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RenanPeixoto_/status/1384209269269041157
I think that is supposed to paint both Lula and Jesus as communists? Which is confusing because that association sounds like something that can make Lula be more positively seen by religious people who voted for Bolsonaro. I don’t understand.

[Mike88]

Nor does he understands what he's saying.

[Red Velvet]

Exame poll

1st round:

Lula (PT) 34%
Bolsonaro (No party) 33%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 9%
Luciano Huck (No party) 6%
João Doria (PSDB) 4%
João Amoedo (NOVO) 3%
Henrique Mandetta (DEM) 3%
Danilo Gentili (No party) 2%
Undecided 5%
Blank/Null 4%

Runoff scenarios:

Lula 40% vs Bolsonaro 38%
Bolsonaro 44% vs Ciro Gomes 34%
Bolsonaro 40% vs Luciano Huck 38%
Bolsonaro 46% vs João Doria 29%
Bolsonaro 45% vs Eduardo Leite 22% (Leite is an alternative to Doria to run as the PSDB candidate)
Bolsonaro 45% vs Sérgio Moro 31%
Bolsonaro 42% vs Henrique Mandetta 23%
Lula 42% vs Ciro Gomes 36%

[CumbrianLefty]

Better for Bolsonaro than previous recent polls?

[Red Velvet]

Better for Bolsonaro than previous recent polls?

Different polling institutes. You can only compare it to the previous EXAME poll and Bolsonaro actually lost intention of vote compared to the previous poll, in which he was the leading candidate and won the runoff scenario against everyone.

[Red Velvet]

Just one day after the climate summit in which he adopted a different tone in regards the protection of the environment, Bolsonaro has made cuts in investimentos destined to the environment 

Biden has classified the Bolsonaro announcements as “encouraging news”. These people will simply pretend to buy that Bolsonaro changed his stances because of the new rhetoric while his actions keep stimulating the destruction of the forests and Indigenous communities.

The big talk is all just for the show and virtue-signaling, not for the good of the environment. From both leaderships. Real change of actions should be the focus, not more friendly speech rhetoric.

[buritobr]

Usually, there is the census in every year in which the end is 0. The 2020 census was delayed to 2021 because of the pandemic. Now, it was announced that the census will take place in 2022, due to the budget cuts in 2021.
There was delay of the census in 2 administrations: Collor and Bolsonaro

[buritobr]

Levy Fidelix, presidential candidate many times, passed away. He was 69. He used to have less than 1% in every election. His main proposal used to be the building of elevated trains in big cities. Fidelix was a member of PRTB, the same party of the vice president Hamilton Mourão.
In a presidencial debate in 2014, he said that he disliked gays because the organ used for defecation is not useful for reproduction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NPea2dyaEA

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro is declining. He has 1/3 in the polls because there are still 17 months to the election and, of course, more people know the incumbent and the ex-president. When a non-Bolsonaro right-wing candidate starts the campaign in August 2022, he/she can increase, and there is the possibility of Bolsonaro not going to the runoff.
However, we should not consider he is dead. Most of the >60 population has already received the 1st dose of the vaccine. By the end of April, all the >60 population will have already received the 1st dose. By the end of May, all the >60 population will haver already received the 2nd dose. So, in the late June, the number of people going to hospitals will strongly decline. Of course <60 people need hospitals too, not 100% of the >60 received the vaccines, the efficacy is not 100%. But, anyway, in the second semester of 2021, the pandemic will not be the most important issue of the country anymore. Bolsonaro's administration is a full disaster in all issues, not only the pandemic: economy, environment, international relations, human rights, education... But most of the oppostion's speech is still focused in the pandemic. In the 2nd semester, the opposition will need to change the topic.

[Red Velvet]

I just hope the liberal sectors of left aren’t dumb enough and don’t sabotage Lula by pushing excessive focus into social issues when that’s what gave Bolsonaro strength in 2018 alongside the anticorruption populism.

Just push the obvious message that the country and Brazilians were much better during Lula years and that now everyone is damned with no opportunities. Economic power has decreased a lot. It’s an easy win that hopefully they cannot destroy.

[buritobr]

Brazil Senate opens pandemic probe, adding to pressure on Bolsonaro

BRASILIA (Reuters) - A Senate inquiry into the Brazilian government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic kicked off on Tuesday, with lawmakers launching what may be a major headache for President Jair Bolsonaro ahead of next year’s election.
Nearly 400,000 people have died from COVID-19 in Brazil, the second-highest death toll in the world after the United States. Bolsonaro, a far-right former army captain, has drawn harsh criticism due to his long-running efforts to minimize the dangers of the virus, shun masks and push unproven remedies.

The inquiry will be overseen by Senator Renan Calheiros, a veteran lawmaker and Bolsonaro critic responsible for the final report. Procedural decisions will fall to Senator Omar Aziz, from the hard-hit state of Amazonas, as committee president and Senate opposition leader Randolfe Rodrigues as vice president.

The probe is expected to focus on the government’s delays in securing vaccines, including the details of drawn-out negotiations with foreign drugmakers, and missteps in Amazonas, where an infectious new variant sprung up late last year.

Beyond the new facts uncovered, the inquiry is expected to generate a political spectacle, with lawmakers pinning Bolsonaro on the ropes ahead of next year’s fraught presidential election, where he is almost certain to seek re-election.

Although the probe could add to calls for impeachment of Bolsonaro, experts say that is an unlikely outcome. Instead, they suggested the government could deflect blame toward former Health Minister Eduardo Pazuello, who oversaw the chaos in Amazonas and has been criticized for slow vaccine negotiations.

Bolsonaro’s early efforts to undermine the probe reflect its potential to cause him damage. He and his allies strove to have Calheiros removed from leading the inquiry, alleging he could not be impartial as his son is the governor of Alagoas state, and the inquiry will probe federal funding of state programs.

Carla Zambelli, a lower house lawmaker and Bolsonaro ally, convinced a court to block Calheiros on Monday night, but the decision was later reversed by another federal court.

On Tuesday, Calheiros said he would act impartially and that the probe would be “deep, technical, focused on its objectives and depoliticized.”

“The country has a right to know who contributed to the thousands of deaths, and they should be punished,” he added.

He said he had proposed calling for testimony from current Health Minister Marcelo Queiroga, as well as his predecessors during the pandemic, including Pazuello.

https://www.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSL1N2MK21V

[buritobr]

Anvisa (the brazilian FDA) denied permission to the russian vaccine Sputnik V. According to Anvisa, the Institute Gamaleya didn't provide enough documents showing the evidence of the efficacy.
Since it was found that Trump administration advised Latin American governments not to purchase Sputnik V, there was the suspicion that this decision was influenced by politics. 60 countries have allowed the use of Sputnik V. However, the report considering that the documents provided by Gamaleya were not enough were written by the scientists who are employed at Anvisa much time before Bolsonaro became the president of Brazil. Even opponents of Bolsonaro considered that the decision of Anvisa was supported by scientific facts (I don't have opinion about it yet).
Until now, Brazil is using only Coronavac and Oxford AstraZeneca. Some Pfizer doses will arrive in June.

[Red Velvet]

My opinion about these findings about Sputnik vaccine is that either the Brazilian institute found real evidence about its unsafety (which assuming is the case and I don’t doubt it, has global repercussions as many other countries like Argentina started using it) OR it’s a political decision in order to block that particular vaccine here and prevent Northeastern governors (who started a deal with Russian government) to get very ahead in the vaccination in their states, taking away political points from Bolsonaro.

Both theories are pretty valid IMO

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Bolsonaro's government approval Poder Data poll:

Approve: 35%

Disapprove: 57%

Don't know: 8%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/04/pd-bolsonaro-drive-28-abr-2021-4.png

Bolsonaro's approval has not going well since the beginning of March, with the explosion of cases and deaths of Covid, because Bolsonaro has denied 11 vaccine orders since the beginning of the pandemic, one of them denying 70 million doses of the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine, added to the military crisis at the end of March, and now with opening of the Senate inquiry into misuse of resources in the pandemic, added to the denialist action in relation to the disease through the criminal government of Jair Bolsonaro and his ministers.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Bolsonaro´s approval of his Presidency, Poder Data poll:

Excelent/good: 26%

Regular: 19%

Bad/Terrible: 51%

Don't know: 4%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/04/pd-bolsonaro-drive-28-abr-2021-1.png

Bolsonaro's government approval - stratification Poder Data poll:

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/04/pd-bolsonaro-drive-28-abr-2021-4.png

Evaluation of the Bolsonaro's government  - stratification Poder Data poll:

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/04/pd-bolsonaro-drive-28-abr-2021-2.png

There's a difference between the Bolsonaro's government's approval numbers and his personal approval as President. Some Brazilians tend to hold him more responsible than other members of his government, saving people like Economy minister Paulo Guedes.

There's also a discrepancy between the numebers in few Brazilian geographic regions: especially in the Centro-Oeste region (Midwest region), a region of many wealthy farmers, with certain similarities between American states like Texas and the Great Plains Region in the north-central of the US, with their rural population very loyal to Bolsonaro and the conservatism, with high rejection numbers. The other is the South Region, which gave Bolsonaro 70% of the votes in the 2nd round in 2018,with a much higher rejection rate against Bolsonaro in the second survey, which shows that Brazilian surveys are not always reliable.

[buritobr]

As I mentioned, I trust in the full results of Poder Data polls, but not in the sub-groups. Maybe, there is the small sample bias. The approval rates change a lot according to income groups from one survey to another. Besides, only Poder Data shows low approval rate for Bolsonaro in the Midwest. Other polls show that the Midwest is the region where the approval rate is the highest one.
The Midwest region is the most important region of the agrobusiness.

[Red Velvet]

1st round poll:



Runoff scenarios polls:



This happened in Rio de Janeiro this week:

https://mobile.twitter.com/_Tsardinha/status/1390442693956866051
People from the other Brazilian cities are probably correct to be scared of my Rio. This is basically death penalty (illegal) being given and without trials.

[SnowLabrador]

I do believe Bolsonaro will be remain in office after the election in 2022. From what I understand, the military is 100% behind him in the event he refuses to leave. But autocrats tend not to lose elections, so he'll probably win regardless; our luck sucks.