Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #300 on: March 18, 2021, 09:30:32 AM »

Runoff:

Bolsonaro 37%  x  Lula 41%

Bolsonaro 34% x Ciro Gomes 39%

Bolsonaro 37% x Luciano Huck 40%

Bolsonaro 38% x Sérgio Moro 31%

Bolsonaro 41% x João Doria 31%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/03/PoderData-intencao-de-voto-2-turno-09.png

So basically:

:rose emoji: +5
:red flag emoji: +4
Huck +3
Moro -7
Doria -10


Why are they polling Huck? Is he likely to run?
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LM Brazilian Citizen
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« Reply #301 on: March 18, 2021, 10:14:59 AM »
« Edited: March 18, 2021, 12:40:30 PM by Br progressive »

Runoff:

Bolsonaro 37%  x  Lula 41%

Bolsonaro 34% x Ciro Gomes 39%

Bolsonaro 37% x Luciano Huck 40%

Bolsonaro 38% x Sérgio Moro 31%

Bolsonaro 41% x João Doria 31%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/03/PoderData-intencao-de-voto-2-turno-09.png

So basically:

:rose emoji: +5
:red flag emoji: +4
Huck +3
Moro -7
Doria -10


Why are they polling Huck? Is he likely to run?

Yes, although there is no total likelihood that he will run, he was considered to run in the 2018 presidential election, but he remained on his TV show "Caldeirão do Huck" or "Huck's Cauldron" in english, on Rede Globo TV station, supported Bolsonaro in the second round of the 2018 presidential election and he is now choosing a liberal center party to join and run in 2022.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #302 on: March 18, 2021, 10:29:00 AM »
« Edited: March 18, 2021, 10:35:14 AM by Red Velvet »

Runoff:

Bolsonaro 37%  x  Lula 41%

Bolsonaro 34% x Ciro Gomes 39%

Bolsonaro 37% x Luciano Huck 40%

Bolsonaro 38% x Sérgio Moro 31%

Bolsonaro 41% x João Doria 31%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/03/PoderData-intencao-de-voto-2-turno-09.png

So basically:

:rose emoji: +5
:red flag emoji: +4
Huck +3
Moro -7
Doria -10


Why are they polling Huck? Is he likely to run?

He wants to but no one knows if he will.

He has a long TV career constructed at Globo and he would lose it all if he decided to run, as Globo doesn’t accept their names being politically associated with the government or political parties. Bolsonaro’s ex-minister of culture was an iconic name from Globo, who was there since 1969: Her contract with the TV broadcaster was terminated and for nothing as she was later dismissed by Bolsonaro from the job because she said some stuff that wasn’t 100% against culture.

So, it can be quite risky for people with a stable TV career job that pays them a fortune to simply give it up for the sake of politics. I don’t know how big Huck’s ambitions are but it sounds like an awful deal to give it all up just to fail to make runoff, as for now it’s quite clear it will be a Lula vs Bolsonaro election.

I am not sure Huck will want to go through with his candidature. It may happen but if it does I feel like it will be a waste of space that will only prejudice himself. If he is smart, he won’t run. He is positioning himself as a center candidate, to the left of PSDB but to the right of Ciro. Kinda like: a center-right guy on economics but progressive on everything else. There is practically no space for PSDB or Ciro, imagine for Huck.

I am a Ciro supporter and even I think Ciro should eventually start considering not running because there’s absolutely no way to break the Lula vs Bolsonaro dynamic. If I were him I would, in the eve of the elections (assuming no judiciary or legislative surprises* happen in the following year and a half), try to make a deal with Lula in order to put down his PDT candidature in exchange of a position like VP or minister where he could push for some of his agenda.

*Surprises like the judiciary putting Lula in jail again in order to stop him from running OR even a Bolsonaro impeachment that prevents him from running.
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buritobr
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« Reply #303 on: March 18, 2021, 03:39:19 PM »

Details of the Datafolha Poll of March 2021 about the rating of Bolsonaro's administration

I will write the results as the following:
Demographic group: good/very good, regular, bad/very bad

All: 30, 24, 44

Gender
Male: 35, 24, 40
Female: 26, 24, 48

Age
16-24: 21, 30, 46
25-34: 33, 25, 41
35-44: 31, 23, 45
45-59: 34, 23, 42
60-: 32, 20, 45

Instruction
Elementary: 31, 26, 41
High School: 31, 26, 41
College: 28, 17, 55

Income (1MW~US$200 monthly)
0-2 MW: 28, 26, 44
2-5 MW: 35, 22, 42
5-10 MW: 32, 19, 48
>10MW: 30, 14, 54

Region
Southeast: 29, 24, 45
South: 39, 24, 34
Northeast: 24, 25, 49
Centerwest/North: 39, 21, 39

Municipality
Metro area: 27, 23, 48
Countryside: 33, 24, 41

Color
White: 35, 21, 43
Brown: 30, 26, 42
Black: 22, 22, 55
Asian: 24, 28, 44

Religion
Catholic: 29, 24, 45
Evangelic: 37, 27, 35

http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2021/03/17/6879812ac6be2a83138f6379ef5711cdabsnr.pdf
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buritobr
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« Reply #304 on: March 18, 2021, 03:50:38 PM »

It is horrible to see that, according to last Datafolha poll, 56% don't consider Bolsonaro bad/very bad. But it is not hard to understand

1) Many people had already had the covid19, they had mild symptoms and they don't care about the pandemic anymore. They care more about income, jobs and food. This is a selfish view, because many old people and people who had previous diseases are dying, and a ignorant view, because if a country has adequate policies to deal with the pandemic, it would be better for income and jobs.

2) The business elite still supports the administration and they have money to build an opinion

3) Most of the newspapers criticizes Bolsonaro concerning the pandemic, the environment and the foreign relations, but they still support Paulo Guedes's economic policies

4) The is no leader in the oposition who has high popularity. Lula polls well, but 40% of the population hate him. Fernando Haddad, Ciro Gomes and Guilherme Boulos are not very popular

5) There is a (wrong) perception that there is no big scandal in this administration. There is the scandal related to the oldest son when he was state representative in Rio de Janeiro, but these facts took place before 2018. (I still think the money used to buy cloroquine in 2020 a scandal)
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buritobr
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« Reply #305 on: March 18, 2021, 05:16:22 PM »

This poll destroys the myth that the center (the name the media gives to the non-Bolsonaro right) does better in the runoff against Bolsonaro than the left

Well one poll arguably can't "destroy" anything Wink

But yes, its modestly encouraging.

Other polls show similar results. But yes, you are correct, it is hard to establish a truth only after some polls
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RodPresident
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« Reply #306 on: March 18, 2021, 07:14:46 PM »

Senator Sergio Olimpio Gomes (PSL-SP),58, known as Major Olimpio died due to Covid-19. He was interned since March. He was elected in PSL 2018 wave but split with Bolsonaro and supported vaccination, but he had problems with governor Doria and protested against restrictive decisions against virus. He was a policeman and served 2 terms as state legislator (2007-2015) and 1 term as Federal Deputy (2015-19).
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #307 on: March 19, 2021, 12:38:25 AM »

It is horrible to see that, according to last Datafolha poll, 56% don't consider Bolsonaro bad/very bad. But it is not hard to understand

1) Many people had already had the covid19, they had mild symptoms and they don't care about the pandemic anymore. They care more about income, jobs and food. This is a selfish view, because many old people and people who had previous diseases are dying, and a ignorant view, because if a country has adequate policies to deal with the pandemic, it would be better for income and jobs.

2) The business elite still supports the administration and they have money to build an opinion

3) Most of the newspapers criticizes Bolsonaro concerning the pandemic, the environment and the foreign relations, but they still support Paulo Guedes's economic policies

4) The is no leader in the oposition who has high popularity. Lula polls well, but 40% of the population hate him. Fernando Haddad, Ciro Gomes and Guilherme Boulos are not very popular

5) There is a (wrong) perception that there is no big scandal in this administration. There is the scandal related to the oldest son when he was state representative in Rio de Janeiro, but these facts took place before 2018. (I still think the money used to buy cloroquine in 2020 a scandal)

I think these 30% that still support him will forever do it until they die lmao. I don’t see them switching back to PSDB now that they have been radicalized.

A better explanation is simply that these people have been brainwashed by propaganda and hate speech. They would destroy vaccines, burn hospitals or even die for their great leader.

It’s hard to admit around 30% of people you’re forced to live with are either plain fascists or suicidal or incredibly dumb and selfish but that is the reality. I don’t really expect the approval numbers to go below 20-25% (and those numbers are “optimistic” scenario, in case we end up seeing corpses on the street after the collapse).

They won’t change because it’s an ego thing at this point, they’re too mentally into this and for so long at this point that would drive them crazy with guilt and shame to suddenly wake up to reality. If I had ever supported this stuff, I wouldn’t know how to forgive myself tbh.

The focus should be that a majority of the country, over 50%, is against him and the Nazis are now in defense mode. They know if the election was today they would lose. That’s why they’re trying to push for the prison of people who publicly criticize Bolsonaro and call him for what he is: a genocidal maniac.

It’s all about trying to suppress speech by making people scared and it’s great to see that having the opposite effect and stimulating people to attack him even more. We should always remind that he eventually will have to pay for his humanitarian crimes once he is gone and rot in jail for the rest of his miserable life.

That’s why he will never concede and people should be prepared to give a strong reaction against that monster, 10x stronger than what happened in 2013.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #308 on: March 19, 2021, 10:46:33 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2021, 10:51:33 PM by Red Velvet »

The Federal Police, after receiving signed orders from president Bolsonaro, is investigating his 2022 presidential adversary Ciro Gomes for criticisms he made of the president in one interview, as it was an “insult against the president honor”. Ciro usually criticizes his political adversaries with harsh words, in that interview he called Bolsonaro a thief.

This week there were a lot of these type of news. Popular YouTuber Felipe Neto received a police intimation for insulting the president (that was one day later suspended), Police arrested a group of five protesters with a plaque saying the president was committing a genocide (they were all released later), etc.

None of these attacks on freedom of speech has really sticked so far but they will keep pushing for them because they are desperate. Popularity is down and COVID is about to get much much worse in the next 30 days here, we could see a tragedy. So they feel they need to make this to try to make people scared of voicing their opinions, it’s not a coincidence this is starting right at this specific moment. Because things are about to look real bad for the government.

Felipe Neto launched an initiative in which he will pay the legal defense of anyone who is intimated by the police for exercising their freedom of speech. It is called “Cala Boca Já Morreu” and consists of four law firms in a collaboration with Felipe.

That’s the website: https://www.calaabocajamorreu.com.br/
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #309 on: March 20, 2021, 09:29:44 AM »

I think these 30% that still support him will forever do it until they die lmao. I don’t see them switching back to PSDB now that they have been radicalized.

Certainly parallels to be drawn with certain other countries here Wink

Do these "hardcore" voters skew to older people, as is quite often the case elsewhere?
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #310 on: March 20, 2021, 12:25:13 PM »
« Edited: March 20, 2021, 12:43:47 PM by Red Velvet »

I think these 30% that still support him will forever do it until they die lmao. I don’t see them switching back to PSDB now that they have been radicalized.

Certainly parallels to be drawn with certain other countries here Wink

Do these "hardcore" voters skew to older people, as is quite often the case elsewhere?

I think it skews more to the youngest actually (between 16-24 years old):



Overall population: Bolsonaro 36% vs Lula 41%. Null and blank votes are 18%.

Radicalization is very associated with uncritical access to technology. And that’s something the youngest are more subjected to, just like populism and anti-establishment rhetoric.

Also, if you’re like 23 years old, all your life has basically been under the PT government so it’s more likely for this age group to perceive the left as the establishment. They didn’t live through the military dictatorship or the Collor government and were only babies or didn’t even exist during FHC government in the 90s. That’s how a right-wing speech promising change becomes appealing for them.

Bolsonaro is their first experience with the right and they aren’t old enough to be affected by the worst of his actions (COVID, economic stuff, etc)

Meanwhile, the “Millenial” demographic (between 25-44 years old) are easily the most against Bolsonaro. If you had to generalize an average Pro-Bolsonaro and Anti-Bolsonaro voter it would be like this:

Pro-Bolsonaro voter:
- Male
- Between 16 and 24 years old
- From the Center-West Region
- Middle Class voters

Agrobusiness is really supportive of Bolsonaro, probably the most loyal base after Evangelical Protestants. That reflects on the geography, Center-West is where the agrobusiness influence is by far the strongest.

Anti-Bolsonaro voter:
- Female
- Between 25 and 44 years old
- From the Northeast Region
- Low Income voters

It’s important to know that despite similarities with other places, such as the US, the Bolsonaro movement is extremely different (and more dangerous) than what Trump or other right wing populist movements are and operate under different logics and have different types of bases.
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buritobr
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« Reply #311 on: March 23, 2021, 06:06:12 PM »

The Supreme Court considered that Sergio Moro was not impartial when he was a judge and when he sentenced Lula. Moro's sentences are not considered valid anymore.
It is becoming clear that Lula will be allowed to run in 2022 if he wants.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #312 on: March 23, 2021, 07:24:30 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2021, 07:29:09 PM by Red Velvet »

Just to clear up, the previous Supreme Court had simply decided that Moro didn’t have competence to judge Lula as it belongs to a federal district tribunal and nullified the sentence. But the evidence presented by Moro could still be used.

This new decision considered Moro was biased in the condemnation against Lula, which also nullifies all the evidence presented in that process. Which means, an eventual new process will have to start from zero if it happens.

This recent understanding was deeply affected by the leaked hacked messages between ex-judge Moro and the prosecutors, released by The Intercept Brasil between 2018 and now. Minister Carmen Lucia altered her vote thanks to this, as her previous understanding was against Lula. According to some reports I read, she was shocked and angry with the content of the hacked messages.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #313 on: March 30, 2021, 01:49:28 AM »

Bolsonaro has fired six ministers, including Foreign Affairs and Defense - apparently to placate the centrão and/or the military.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #314 on: March 30, 2021, 02:32:58 AM »

Bolsonaro has fired six ministers, including Foreign Affairs and Defense - apparently to placate the centrão and/or the military.

The worst Foreign relations minister Brazil ever had in all its existence as a country by the way.

I feel Meh about it though because knowing Bolsonaro, the new guy is either exactly the same or even worse.

This is all for show to signal the government is changing under pressure from all sides, as Bolsonaro is at his weakest position in his term so far, making Centrão feel free to demand more positions in exchange of support.

And as Bolsonaro’s image gets more negative, the more expensive this support gets as Centrão congressmen risk their own electoral image with the association with the government in the moment COVID handling by the president shows to be a disaster, Lula returns, etc. That’s why they also pressure the government to be more competent and get rid of the bad names.

Getting rid of the Foreign minister is something Bolsonaro didn’t want but was politically forced to do. Too much pressure also coming from the never before seen huge negative reputation of Brazil internationally under Bolsonaro government. The stereotype of “samba, football and happy friendly people” changed to “Fascism, anti-environmentalism and stupidity”. Everyone hates Brazil nowadays, from China to the US, from India to Europe and even important Latin American allies like Argentina.

Brazil’s independent position from Lula’s government, reaching out to countries like Iran and focusing on more regional cooperation within Latin America went to a submissive one of automatic uncritical allignement with everything the crazy far-right defends and sh**ts on all its allies.

For example, Bolsonaro loves Israel and Saudi Arabia simply because that’s what is inside the far-right book, he doesn’t even understand why he has that position, he just blindly follows. And he only picks the worst aspects of these places while simply ignoring the good stuff, like, I wish he copied Israel’s vaccination strategy or liberal pro-LGBT stances since he loves there so much! (even though he happened put a neonazi as Brazil’s minister of culture once but surely it was just an accident).

I doubt the next Foreign minister will be significantly better, you gotta change the president in order to achieve that. But I suppose it’s nice that Bolsonaro is showing signs of collapse?
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RodPresident
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« Reply #315 on: March 30, 2021, 05:55:05 AM »

Bolsonaro has fired six ministers, including Foreign Affairs and Defense - apparently to placate the centrão and/or the military.
A major cabinet reshuffle:
Foreign Relations
Ernesto Araujo (far-right, Olavo de Carvalho's supporter) ------> Carlos Alberto Franco França (Protocol's chief)
Defense
Fernando Azevedo e Silva (a well-connected general) -------->Braga Neto (another military who was former interventor in RJ's security who was Chief of Staff last year)
Chief of Staff
Braga Neto --------> Luiz Eduardo Ramos (another general who was Bolsonaro's mate in Military Academy and was Secretary of Government, a position who deals with Congress and political articulation)
Secretary of Government
Luiz Eduardo Ramos --------> Flavia Arruda (a 1st term congresswoman of PR-DF who's married to scandal ridden José Eduardo Arruda, a former senator who resigned after violating voting's secrecy in Senate, got a comeback as DF governor but was found in another scandal of bribes who was known as DEM (his party at time) Mensalao)
Justice
André Mendonça (a lawyer and Presbyterian reverend who'll return to Solicitor General and is favorite to get next spot at Supreme Court, this maneuver is to preserve him) -----> Anderson Gustavo Torres (DF Secretary of Public Security who's very close to Bolsonaro's sons)
Solicitor General
José Levi (he was refusing to subscribe lawsuits who Bolsonaro's moving against social distancing decisions made by governors and mayors) ------> André Mendonça
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #316 on: March 30, 2021, 07:11:43 AM »

You can be highly cynical about this, and almost certainly correctly so - but the mere fact Bolsonaro has felt the need to make these changes must tell us something?
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LM Brazilian Citizen
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« Reply #317 on: March 30, 2021, 09:04:09 AM »

You can be highly cynical about this, and almost certainly correctly so - but the mere fact Bolsonaro has felt the need to make these changes must tell us something?

It shows that the Bolsonaro government is more fragile, perhaps more fragile than any other moment since he took office on January 1st, 2019.

He needs to govern with the support of center and center-right parties ('Centrão'), putting new government ministers appointed by the Centrão, otherwise he may undergo an impeachment process and he may lose his position as president (which I don't think will occur until October 2022, until the new general elections), or else he can try to give a military coup d'état and install a dictatorship if Congress doesn't collaborate with him.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #318 on: March 30, 2021, 09:25:43 AM »
« Edited: March 30, 2021, 09:30:51 AM by Red Velvet »

You can be highly cynical about this, and almost certainly correctly so - but the mere fact Bolsonaro has felt the need to make these changes must tell us something?

Sure, it tells us that he’s very weak politically that he has to bow down to pressure. Pressure coming from his Centrão allies, from unsatisfied military actors, from external players, etc.

But the changes are mostly for the sake of signaling change, I don’t believe in any major change of heart in regards on how the government deals with the issues. Even if he nominated good people out of pressure, he would sabotage them when they happened to disagree with him on something and/or become more popular than him.

That’s what he did to Mandetta, minister of health fired in the beginning of the pandemic simply for being competent and pro-science. Bolsonaro didn’t like that he was getting more popular than him and saw that as a threat, later choosing to put a goon like Pazuello in the position.

You can be highly cynical about this, and almost certainly correctly so - but the mere fact Bolsonaro has felt the need to make these changes must tell us something?

It shows that the Bolsonaro government is more fragile, perhaps more fragile than any other moment since he took office on January 1st, 2019.

He needs to govern with the support of center and center-right parties ('Centrão'), putting new government ministers appointed by the Centrão, otherwise he may undergo an impeachment process and he may lose his position as president (which I don't think will occur until October 2022, until the new general elections), or else he can try to give a military coup d'état and install a dictatorship if Congress doesn't collaborate with him.

You gotta have major support for that though and he doesn’t have that either from the parliament, the media, the population or the military. Would be fun in these circumstances to see him and the crazies even try, at least it would be an excuse to get rid of them earlier, before 2022.

That’s why only thing he can do is to suck up to Centrão demands.
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buritobr
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« Reply #319 on: March 30, 2021, 09:43:14 PM »

Of course, Ernesto Araújo's anti-China views copied from the American far-right were not very welcome in the Congress. Even the right-wing representatives didn't like it. Many representatives are supported by the agriculture sector, and China is the biggest destination of the Brazilian agriculture exports.

Besides, the inputs of the 2 anti-covid vaccine used in Brazil, Coronavac and Oxford AstraZeneca, are imported from China.

Araújo's other ideas: the left supports abortion because the left doesn't want people born and doesn't want Jesus born, modern Europe is a culturally empty space and the national-socialism was a left-wing movement.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #320 on: April 05, 2021, 06:44:29 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2021, 06:50:03 PM by Red Velvet »

New XP/Ipespe poll!

1st round:

Lula (PT) 29%
Bolsonaro (no party) 28%
Sérgio Moro (no party) 9%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 9%
-
Luciano Huck (no party) 5%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) 3%
João Doria (PSDB) 3%
Henrique Mandetta (DEM) 3%

Runoff scenarios:

Bolsonaro 38% vs Lula 42%
Bolsonaro 30% vs Sérgio Moro 30%
Bolsonaro 38% vs Ciro Gomes 38%
Bolsonaro 35% vs Luciano Huck 32%
Bolsonaro 37% vs João Doria 30%

Interesting to notice that Bolsonaro vote intention goes up as the more left-wing his opponent is, but so does the percentage of the opponent. Lula performs the best with 42%, then Ciro with 38%, centrist Luciano Huck with 32% and then finally the two more “right-wing” options Doria and Moro have only 30%.

More polarization leads to increased turnout from both sides, I guess. Notice how in a Lula vs Bolsonaro contest there’s only 20% of people who didn’t make up their mind yet or would nullify/not vote. In a Bolsonaro vs Moro match up that % doubles up to 40% because that’s basically an “eh whatever” election, especially to people on the left, who would abstain. But also to people on the right who like both and would be in doubt.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #321 on: April 05, 2021, 07:05:10 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2021, 07:10:58 PM by Red Velvet »

The same poll asked Brazilians about their approval of the Bolsonaro administration:

Disapprove: 60% (+4)
Approve: 33% (-5)

Only 7% of people don’t have a formed opinion about the government. Net of approval is -27%, the lowest point in the Bolsonaro administration, surpassing the previous one from June 2020 of -25%:



The curve totally matches the chronology of the emergency checks given to the poor because of the pandemic, starting in June 2020 and ending in December 2020. You can notice Bolsonaro approval becoming better during that period.

But since then, it’s only going down.
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buritobr
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« Reply #322 on: April 06, 2021, 03:21:48 PM »

Bolsonaro out of the runoff in 2022 is not impossible anymore. If the left and the non-Bolsonaro right had only one candidate each one, both could go to the runoff.

No surprie Bolsonaro still doing well. In the polls that take place many months before the election, the most known candidates poll better, so, incumbent presidents poll better before the campaign starts. Dilma Rousseff defeated Aécio Neves in the runoff in 2014 by a very narrow margin, but in the polls that took place in 2013 and in early 2014, Dilma had comfortable margins.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #323 on: April 09, 2021, 12:24:32 PM »

I wonder if there will be any major states realignment in 2022.

Pre-Lula, you could say Rio de Janeiro + Rio Grande do Sul were the most left-wing states. Because of their history and generally being the more progressive states.

After Lula was elected, there were some shifts. The Northeast region, which has lowest development index of Brazil and was once perceived as more conservative, became a major PT stronghold and was decisive in giving the party 4 consecutive victories. Elections became more class oriented, with lower income groups voting for PT and higher income ones for PSDB.

During Lula years you basically had the Northeast + Majority of the North + Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro voting for the left. While the Midwest + South + Roraima and Rondônia + São Paulo loyally voting for the right (PSDB). Places where agrobusiness also has more influence tends to vote for the right.

Now with Bolsonaro things may shift a bit. I think there’s significant rejection against him coming from São Paulo since he got elected. Not sure if it has something to do with him antagonizing the state or just that São Paulo naturally tends to dislike more populist candidates. But a recent poll showed that Lula and Bolsonaro are tied in the state (!!!) and it’s a state in which Bolsonaro had like 67% in 2018.

São Paulo historically votes to the right of Rio de Janeiro since redemocratization. But in 2018 they pretty much were aligned with similar Bolsonaro percentages, although that was more of an evidence of Rio’s hard turn to the right with Bolsonaro than any shift to the left of São Paulo.

However, I think there’s a chance that in 2022 we could see São Paulo voting to the left of Rio. Too early to tell and one poll is not enough. But I do get the vibe Bolsonaro is crumbling faster there than in Rio.

Also, I think Amazonas may stay as a Bolsonaro state, even though they voted for PT with Lula and Dilma. They were one of the places with the strongest anti-lockdown protests coming from the population.

Those are currently my predictions for 2022:



And just for comparison, those were the Bolsonaro vs Haddad results in 2018:


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LM Brazilian Citizen
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« Reply #324 on: April 14, 2021, 07:26:27 PM »
« Edited: April 16, 2021, 02:49:46 PM by Br progressive »

Poder Data poll:

1st round

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva - Lula (Worker's Party - PT - left-wing)

34%

Jair Bolsonaro (no party - far-right)

31%

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party - PDT - center-left to left-wing)

6%

Luciano Huck (no party - center to center-right)

6%

João Amoedo (New Party - NOVO - center-right to right-wing)

5%

João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB - center-left, center, center-right)

4%

Sérgio Moro (no party - center-right)

3%

Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM - center-right)

2%

Blank/null

7%

Don't know

2%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/04/pd-intencao-presidente-14-abr-2021-1.png
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