Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[Red Velvet]

Today the Supreme Court started the voting that can probably end up punishing Moro for his actions. Minister Lewandowski even talked in his vote that Moro should pay Lula and the Brazilian State as restitution to compensate for the wrongdoings.

It won’t be decided today though. They will take their time analyzing the process as requested by Minister Kassio Nunes today. Who knows when final decision will come?

PT should drop the “Free Lula” or “Lula electable” line now that they’ve won that and start demanding for Moro to go to jail. That’s the minimum, there’s no way to compensate all Brazilians for that fraud. Especially when you take into account the consequences (an anti-science genocide politically benefiting from it and getting elected to lead the country in the middle of one of the worst pandemics the modern world has faced).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Polls show that Lula is the one in the opposition who performs better. He is doing better than other left-wing potential candidates and also better than "centrists" (non-Bolsonaro right-wing candidates according to the media).

Is this just in the first round or is he performing better one on one against Bolsonaro?

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Polls show that Lula is the one in the opposition who performs better. He is doing better than other left-wing potential candidates and also better than "centrists" (non-Bolsonaro right-wing candidates according to the media).

Is this just in the first round or is he performing better one on one against Bolsonaro?

It depends largely. Of all the opposition candidates, Lula is the one who leads the best, however, depending on the bias of the electoral survey, he is still sometimes far behind Bolsonaro, in the first round scenarios. In the second round scenarios, this is repeated again: in some Bolsonaro leads, in others, despite being a minority of these scenarios, Lula leads.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Polls show that Lula is the one in the opposition who performs better. He is doing better than other left-wing potential candidates and also better than "centrists" (non-Bolsonaro right-wing candidates according to the media).

Is this just in the first round or is he performing better one on one against Bolsonaro?

It depends largely. Of all the opposition candidates, Lula is the one who leads the best, however, depending on the bias of the electoral survey, he is still sometimes far behind Bolsonaro, in the first round scenarios. In the second round scenarios, this is repeated again: in some Bolsonaro leads, in others, despite being a minority of these scenarios, Lula leads.

Mm. I think it might be a bit of an ignominious end for Lula’s political career to lose to Bolsonaro like that, but I know Latin American presidents tend to ride off into the sunset much less often than in the US.

[buritobr]

First poll after Fachin's decision

CNN Brasil

Jair Bolsonaro 31%
Lula 21%
Sérgio Moro 10%
Luciano Huck 7%
João Doria 4%
João Amoedo 2%
Marina Silva 1%

Runoff
Jair Bolsonaro 43%
Lula 39%

Not very bad numbers, considering that incumbent presidents always lead the polls many months before the election


Today, Lula's interview was very good. He showed to be willing to build a large coalition with the center.

[buritobr]

Atlas Politico Poll

Bolsonaro's administration evaluation
Good/very good: 25%
Regular: 18%
Bad/very bad: 57%

First round 2022
Jair Bolsonaro 32.7%
Lula 27.4%
Sergio Moro 9.7%
Ciro Gomes 7.5%
Luiz Mandetta 4.3%
João Dória 4.3%
Luciano Huck 2.5%
João Amoedo 2.0%
Marina Silva 1.3%
Guilherme Boulos 0.9%
Flávio Dino 0.7%
Alexandre Khalil 0.7%

Runoff

Lula 44.9%, Bolsonaro 38.8%
Ciro Gomes 44.7%, Bolsonaro 37.5%

[Red Velvet]

Atlas Politico Poll

Bolsonaro's administration evaluation
Good/very good: 25%
Regular: 18%
Bad/very bad: 57%

First round 2022
Jair Bolsonaro 32.7%
Lula 27.4%
Sergio Moro 9.7%
Ciro Gomes 7.5%
Luiz Mandetta 4.3%
João Dória 4.3%
Luciano Huck 2.5%
João Amoedo 2.0%
Marina Silva 1.3%
Guilherme Boulos 0.9%
Flávio Dino 0.7%
Alexandre Khalil 0.7%

Runoff

Lula 44.9%, Bolsonaro 38.8%
Ciro Gomes 44.7%, Bolsonaro 37.5%

1st round:



2nd round simulations: Mandetta (ex-health minister), Ciro Gomes and Lula (or Haddad) win against Bolsonaro, while the others lose.

[buritobr]

XP Poll

First round
Jair Bolsonaro 27%
Lula 25%
Sérgio Moro 10%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Others 16%

Runoff
Bolsonaro 41%, Lula 40%


I don't know why Mandetta and Moro are still considered serious options.
Former minister of health Mandetta had a sane speech concerning the pandemic, he tried to make a serious job, but he was not very competent in the early stages of the pandemic. He was too slow in closing the airports and purchasing equipment for hospitals.
Moro is hated by the left, and he became also hated by the far-right after April 2020.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

I don't know why Mandetta and Moro are still considered serious options.
Former minister of health Mandetta had a sane speech concerning the pandemic, he tried to make a serious job, but he was not very competent in the early stages of the pandemic. He was too slow in closing the airports and purchasing equipment for hospitals.
Moro is hated by the left, and he became also hated by the far-right after April 2020.

Mandetta was by far the best health minister we had, when he was dismissed from office,  Brazil only had 1,600 dead in the pandemic, I think the negative impacts at the beggining of his administration were minimal.

I´m not a very big fan of him as a person, but I think you misrepresenting his management here, he gave the best of him and he didn´t want to follow Bolsonaro's chloroquine booklet, like his brief successor, Nelson Teich, and before the terrible one, current management of General Pazuello (or Pezadello - nightmare).

[Red Velvet]

XP Poll

First round
Jair Bolsonaro 27%
Lula 25%
Sérgio Moro 10%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Others 16%

Runoff
Bolsonaro 41%, Lula 40%


I don't know why Mandetta and Moro are still considered serious options.
Former minister of health Mandetta had a sane speech concerning the pandemic, he tried to make a serious job, but he was not very competent in the early stages of the pandemic. He was too slow in closing the airports and purchasing equipment for hospitals.
Moro is hated by the left, and he became also hated by the far-right after April 2020.

Luciano Huck is the one that performs the worst in runoff scenarios, I hope he doesn’t run either and stays on TV. If Lula runs, this is clearly going to be a Lula vs Bolsonaro showdown. Huck will destroy his career for nothing lmao

I even hope Ciro would accept to be Lula’s VP in order to push some of his agenda. But there’s too much bad blood between those two, Lula will pick either Haddad or some random center-right name.

Moro needs to be put in jail for treason, these car-wash people received training, instructions, secret data (obtained through giant big tech) from US institutions and helped interfere in decisions made by Brazilian State agents.

What happened were acts of sedition against the interests of the country. Once we get rid of the fascist monster and put him and all the anti-scientific BS he represents back into the sewer he deserves, the next president needs to pay attention to these kinds of hybrid wars.

Unfortunately, Lula was too naive to believe in the justice system and ended up falling because of his own democratic impulses, which people used against him.

The law that says politicians need to have a clean sheet in order to run, was pushed by his government. The anti-corruption movement was given increased power by Dilma’s decisions to strengthen it. All with the greatest intentions, but they were used with different motives as we saw.

Say what you want, but more “authoritarian” leaders would’ve never allowed this kind of interference to gain so much track. You don’t have to be anti-democratic, but you gotta find the balance in order to prevent institutions from destroying themselves.

[buritobr]

According to the newspaper Estado de S. Paulo, PSOL is considering the possibility of not have a candidate in the 2022 presidential election and support Lula already in the first round. I think this is a good idea. It is better not to split the anti-Bolsonaro vote. If the left has only one candidate and the traditional right has only one candidate, it would increase the probability of keeping Bolsonaro out of the runoff.

[Red Velvet]

Yeah, I predicted that it was more likely to have the center-right divided (with PSDB, Huck and all the other usual minor options) than the left with PT and PSOL.

PSOL always has a candidate since their existence but in current situation with so much talk about “broad front” coming from their own supporters, they will totally support Lula.

With the right conversation (maybe promising a ministry where he can enact some of his proposals), hopefully Lula and Ciro can make a deal as well. But the possibility of having Ciro not running is more remote and would take time and conversations to happen.

Future polls will have a lot of say. I don’t see anyone breaking the vote intention of either Lula or Bolsonaro in the 1st round.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Lula is the only one who can save Brazil.

I read an article that said thanks to damage in recent years, the Amazon is contributing more to climate change through greenhouse gases. In some ways, ousting Bolsonaro is a task with the literal fate of the world on the line.

[buritobr]

Today is the 3rd anniversary of the murder of the municipal legislator of Rio de Janeiro Marielle Franco. The civil police has already found who shot. But we still don't know who ordered the crime.

[Red Velvet]

DATAFOLHA POLL

Brazilians approval of the Bolsonaro government handling of the Coronavirus pandemic:

Good or Great - 22% (-4)
Regular - 24% (-1)
Bad or Awful - 54% (+6)

Brazilians approval of president Bolsonaro:

Good or Great - 30% (-1)
Regular - 24% (-2)
Bad or Awful - 44% (+4)
Don’t Know - 2%

Variations indicated are in comparison with the previous poll from the institute two months ago, in January.

[buritobr]

In this Datafolha poll, we can see that 46% is for impeachment and 50% is againt impeachment

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

PoderData poll:

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT - Worker´s Party - left-wing - democratic socialism, left-wing populism, marxism, labourism)

34%

Jair Bolsonaro (No party - far-right - authoritarianism, militarism, traditionalism, economic liberalism, right-wing nationalism)

30%

Sérgio Moro (No party - center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, anticorruption, social conservatism)

6%

Ciro Gomes (PDT - Democratic Labour Party - center-left - democratic socialism, social democracy, labourism, left-wing nationalism)

5%

Luciano Huck (No party - center to center-right - liberalism, economic liberalism, social liberalism)

4%

João Amoêdo (NOVO - New Party- center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, social conservatism, minarquism)

3%

João Doria (PSDB Brazilian Social Democracy Party - center-left, center to center-right - economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, Third Way, social conservatism)

3%

Luiz Henrique Mandetta (DEM - Democrats - center-right - social conservatism, economic liberalism)

2%

Flávio Dino (PCdoB - Communist Party of Brazil - far-left - marxism-leninism, socialism)

0%

Blank/null: 10%
Don't know: 3%


https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/03/pd-intencao-presidente-17-mar-2021-2-01.png

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Runoff:

Bolsonaro 37%  x  Lula 41%

Bolsonaro 34% x Ciro Gomes 39%

Bolsonaro 37% x Luciano Huck 40%

Bolsonaro 38% x Sérgio Moro 31%

Bolsonaro 41% x João Doria 31%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/03/PoderData-intencao-de-voto-2-turno-09.png

[buritobr]

This poll destroys the myth that the center (the name the media gives to the non-Bolsonaro right) does better in the runoff against Bolsonaro than the left

[Red Velvet]

Runoff:

Bolsonaro 37%  x  Lula 41%

Bolsonaro 34% x Ciro Gomes 39%

Bolsonaro 37% x Luciano Huck 40%

Bolsonaro 38% x Sérgio Moro 31%

Bolsonaro 41% x João Doria 31%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/03/PoderData-intencao-de-voto-2-turno-09.png

So basically:

:rose emoji: +5
:red flag emoji: +4
Huck +3
Moro -7
Doria -10

The more right-wing, the worst chances are against Bolsonaro. And even the lead from Ciro or Lula isn’t much comfortable.

That’s because for many regular working class people there won’t be a difference between a Bolsonaro and a Moro or a Doria. Too bad for the media sectors who demand a centrist Joe Biden-like figure as a solution against Bolsonaro.

[Pick Up the Phone]

João Doria (PSDB Brazilian Social Democracy Party - center-left, center to center-right - economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, Third Way, social conservatism)

Isn't that a little contradictory? Or does it relate to different issues?

[buritobr]

PSDB is not social democrat
PSDB is the brazilian CDU

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

João Doria (PSDB Brazilian Social Democracy Party - center-left, center to center-right - economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, Third Way, social conservatism)

Isn't that a little contradictory? Or does it relate to different issues?

Basically PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) its a Brazilian big tent political party, in which there are social liberals from this oldest wing that founded the party in 1988, as the former president of Brazil Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC), José Serra, Mário Covas, Geraldo Alckmin, and that from the last years, being opposition to the left-wing governments of the Worker´s Party (PT), of the former presidents Lula and Dilma Rousseff, the party moved to the center to center-left in its early years to the right, in which the party said (and still says) that it defends social democracy, and then mixed with elements of Third Way and Christian democracy and was even more to the political right with the rise of the current governor of the state of São Paulo, the most populous in Brazil, João Doria, who says that he is socially conservative and economically neoliberal, supported the current far-right president Jair Bolsonaro (PSL at the time and today  he has no party) in 2018 and now he is pre-candidate to the post of president of Brazil in 2022.

The younger wing of the party is more conservative than its wing that founded the party.

In Germany, PSDB is perhaps like the FDP party, which was center-left and later went to the neoliberal center-right. 

[Red Velvet]

João Doria (PSDB Brazilian Social Democracy Party - center-left, center to center-right - economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, Third Way, social conservatism)

Isn't that a little contradictory? Or does it relate to different issues?

PSDB is a contradiction as a party. They’re a bunch of neoliberals and their only president (FHC in the 90s) was the peak of privatizations in this country but the media will INSIST they’re center-left when the left voters absolutely hate them and vote all for PT or other options like PSOL.

It’s like they constantly try to move the center of gravity in order for PSDB to be in the center-left in order to erase the left, as the media hates them.

To be fair, the PSDB got increasingly more right-wing as time passed to make a counterpoint with PT. But when it was originally founded post-dictatorship, it could be considered a center-left or center party. That’s where the social-democratic in the name comes from, as in that immediate post-dictatorship moment, there was an almost unanimous progressive sentiment.

But nowadays, they’re totally center-right. Older members who are there since it was founded may be less conservative and will sometimes voice disagreements with the party direction but they have no power. Most people from that time already left the party.

Ciro Gomes was once in the PSDB in 1990 for example. But he is now in PDT, a center left-wing nationalist party inspired on Brizola and Getúlio Vargas.

Bolsonaro supporters HATE PSDB because they consider them a bunch of leftists and socialists simply because they’re not crazy, anti-democratic and anti-science like them lmao.

Meanwhile, PT supporters and other segments of the left HATE PSDB because they consider them a bunch of neoliberals who work for the corporations interests and not for the people.

PSDB always gets to be the media darling though (who hates both the PT and Bolsonaro) and also from different establishment sectors.

Since 1994, elections are basically a polarization between PT and the PSDB. The left votes for PT and the right for PSDB.

That ended in 2018 with Bolsonaro radicalizing the right. PSDB regular voters didn’t vote for PSDB and picked Bolsonaro instead. PSDB ended in 4th place with around 4%.

That’s why it’s hard to see them getting back in the game with Bolsonaro still having so much support. Those are mostly their voters. PSDB needs to target Bolsonaro if they want them back.

[CumbrianLefty]

This poll destroys the myth that the center (the name the media gives to the non-Bolsonaro right) does better in the runoff against Bolsonaro than the left

Well one poll arguably can't "destroy" anything

But yes, its modestly encouraging.