Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!
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  Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!
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buritobr
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« Reply #175 on: September 24, 2020, 08:59:37 PM »

So is PSOL (lol) going to go anywhere in the upcoming federal election?

Also, can any Brazilian poster please tell me the difference between PSB, PMDB, and the other marginal , officially social democratic parties? I’m confused as to how such a fractured environment upon third way blairite parties exists. Also the green parties pls

The strongest base of PSOL is Rio de Janeiro, but representative Marcelo Freixo, who lost in the runoff agianst Crivella in 2016, decided not to run. He has a problem: high floor and low ceiling. He considered that he would go to the runoff easily, but the probabily to loose to Crivella in a runoff is very high. Crivella's aproval rate is low, but the rejection to Freixo is big. Many people living in poor neighborhoods of the city is evangelic and dislike Freixo because he supports cannabis legalization and the teaching of issues related to LGBT at schools. PSOL has a not so famous candidate in 2020: Renata Souza. The strongest candidates in Rio de Janeiro are Marcelo Crivella, Eduardo Paes, Martha Rocha and Benedita da Silva.
Guilherme Boulos, who ran for president in 2018, is polling well in São Paulo. But his probability to win is low.
PSOL has a good chance to win the city of Belém-PA. Edmílsion is the candidate and he was already the mayor when his party was PT.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #176 on: September 25, 2020, 09:47:10 AM »

Ibope Poll September 20th
Evaluation of Bolsonaro administration
40% good, very good
29% regular
29% bad, very bad
Well this seems like a major improvement for Bolsonaro, no?

Certainly from earlier this year when the virus was at peak intensity.
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buritobr
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« Reply #177 on: September 25, 2020, 03:58:04 PM »

Ibope Poll September 20th
Evaluation of Bolsonaro administration
40% good, very good
29% regular
29% bad, very bad
Well this seems like a major improvement for Bolsonaro, no?

Certainly from earlier this year when the virus was at peak intensity.

Last Ibope poll was conducted in December 2019, before the pandemic. It showed 29% good/very good. Ibope doesn't interview people using cell phones. Ibope visits people in their homes. That's why they conducted no polls during the peak of the pandemic. Other polls, which used cell phones, showed that Bolsonaro lost popularity during the early months of the pandemic, and then recovery at higher levels than before the pandemic.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #178 on: September 25, 2020, 05:16:43 PM »

Bolsonaro is now gaining support from lower income groups that voted against him in 2018. That gain in support is significant and growing since June because of the monthly financial help the poor are receiving during the coronavirus pandemic.

Meanwhile, he was losing support at the start of the pandemic with the more affluent groups who elected him because they were tired of all the daily scandals and his disregard for the pandemic (Brazilian elites are dumb so they expected him to be “controlled”). Bolsonaro wanted a coup at a point in the pandemic and tried to interfere in the Supreme Court but when the military made it clear behind closed doors they wouldn’t get behind this, Bolsonaro stopped getting into constant attack mode to preserve himself otherwise he could’ve gotten the chop if he kept antagonizing the congress and the judiciary. So he “moderated“ his discourse (Not really, he just stays more quiet nowadays) since June and that somewhat controlled his trend of losing support with upper and middle classes, which was aggravating at the start of the spread of Coronavirus.

To be popular in Brazil you basically just need to give people some money and keep your mouth shut in regards to public appearances, while sucking up to the interest of established powers and majority of people will like you well enough lol. Assistencialism to the poor and “boring” predictability that doesn’t frighten the markets to the elites, trying to balance each other because if you spend too much cash to help the poor, the elites get mad. And if you’re not enough of a populist and is too bland then you won’t be embraced by the poor either.

Until people find out you sucked up TOO much to the political establishment, then everyone gets mad and accuse you of being the biggest corrupt of all time even if that always happens because it’s a systematic structural problem. You gotta have reform that takes money out of politics, limit the number of parties, etc.

I don’t feel like Brazilian democracy is at risk of ending right now in the present, but I think Brazil can become another Hungary depending how much time Bolsonaro stays in power. Orbán was a 10 year project after all. Bolsonaro wished for a coup but since the institutions stopped him, he’s now taking the route of continuously weakening institutions so that they can be destroyed at some point. If he were to lose reelection, I just can’t imagine he would simply accept leaving in a peaceful manner, but I hope Institutions will be strong enough in order to not allow this to be something he can control.
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buritobr
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« Reply #179 on: September 29, 2020, 06:47:11 PM »

Judge Celso de Mello will retire because he reached 75, so, in this age, there is the compulsory retire (actually, he decided to retire one month before the deadline). He was one of the most critic to Bolsonaro. Now, Bolsonaro has the opportunity to appoint a judge to the Supreme Court. He has already promised to his base a "terrivelmente evangelico" judge. The name needs an approval of the Senate.
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buritobr
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« Reply #180 on: September 29, 2020, 10:33:49 PM »

Brazil was mentioned by Biden in the debate. Not in the best way.
Brazil is not doing well in preserving the rain forest.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #181 on: September 29, 2020, 11:15:12 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2020, 11:20:20 PM by Red Velvet »

Biden talked about giving 20 Billion to Brazil to preserve the forest or else economic consequences would be faced (aka: sanctions).

I see it more of a warning to put pressure on Bolsonaro while also shifting the responsibility to somewhere else in front of his public. Like in a “Hey sure should do better regarding climate change here but look at Brazil right now, they’re the ones to blame”.

The idea is basically just to put money so that they can have any say regarding what happens in the forest and can give punishments if their say isn’t met. Of course Bolsonaro would refuse to participate on that. It isn’t a good plan for anyone (US or Brazil) but it’s good that Biden is putting the country’s name out there on a negative light because it adds pressure from other multiple sectors that do concern Bolsonaro a lot.

If Trump loses, Bolsonaro will have lost his only meaningful ally and will be isolated since a lot of his positions are kinda more validated on the outside by being similar to what the US president says. He will be forced to change and actually do sh**t (an ideological loss for him and his base) or risk making the country a complete pariah on international stage since all the biggest world leaders will be against him lmao. And that wouldn’t be good for Brazil’s economy, which would stimulate a response from market types and elites who elected him and he wouldn’t get re-elected, so he loses in that scenario as well.

But if Trump wins, that would be remarkable validation for Bolsonaro, both domestically and internationally.
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buritobr
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« Reply #182 on: October 01, 2020, 05:41:18 PM »

Bolsonaro chose federal judge Kassio Nunes to occupy Celso Mello's place in the Supreme Court. Many supporters and opponents of Bolsonaro though he would appoint a far-right name. But it didn't happen. Maybe, because Bolsonaro perceived that the Senate would not approve a far-right judge.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #183 on: October 02, 2020, 12:42:50 AM »
« Edited: October 02, 2020, 06:14:13 PM by Red Velvet »

I don’t buy that “senate won’t pass” excuse he is giving to his supporters that are disappointed with his choice because it isn’t someone conservative enough. Senate would pass almost anyone, as long as they had some minimum curriculum. Bolsonaro is on the hands of “Centrão” now since that moment around June when his popularity was decreasing because of Covid and his private intentions of a coup against the judiciary failed when the military pushed it off the table.

It became clear to him that if he kept with his “anti-politics”  position against everyone he would isolate himself only for the purpose of energizing his base. So he “moderated” and decided to do what everyone who wins the presidency has to do if they want to survive politically: give what “Centrão” wants and become more “pro-establishment”. Otherwise, everyone would easily join forces to get rid of him.

That Supreme Court nomination is all about two things: nominating someone supported by “Centrão” and someone that has a more anti-punishment leaning and will likely protect people like his son, Flávio Bolsonaro, who are involved in corruption scandals.

Honestly, I don’t give a damn about the choice, it’s the usual business from always. It’s really funny to watch from the sidelines how pathetic the Brazilian right is though, bragging for a year that the left would go mad whenever Bolsonaro nominated the first “wildly conservative and evangelical” Supreme Court minister that they never had and now they’re the ones making a scandal online because their president nominated a boring establishment guy who will defend corrupts instead. And who is catholic too, not an evangelical at all. Wink + Tongue

If there’s one luck Brazilian left has is that Brazilian right is too stupid and pathetically ideological, because they had potential to be more dangerous as well. These people only dream they were like the Republicans in the US always getting final word against Democrats, they ignore the particularities of where they live. They really believed they would get a right wing anti-system revolution with a guy who was always a parasite in the system in his whole life with tons of public benefits lmaooo. I almost feel bad for them ripping their hair off thanks to this Supreme Court minister nomination because it must suck to waste so much passion believing in something just to have five years later THIS be the result of such work.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #184 on: October 02, 2020, 04:18:51 AM »


What does that mean?
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #185 on: October 02, 2020, 10:10:34 AM »


“Centrão“ literally translates to “Big Center”, an union of fisiological parties in congress without a defined ideology but who use the balance of power to benefit themselves since every president who wants to do anything or even politically survive, must get their support in order to have a majority on congress.

I had explained it more here:

PSD = Fisiological party that doesn’t have a defined ideology but it’s center-right leaning. Parties name mean nothing in Brazil, so don’t assume anything from the social-democracy in their name. PSD politicians (along with many other parties) are just there for the sake of using the balance of power in their favor. If president gives them special favors, they will support the president and if he doesn’t they will be against him. This group of fisiological parties is called “Centrão” around here and because it’s impossible for any president from any ideology to achieve a majority without this group of fisiological parties, they always manage to have A LOT of influence into the government.

Dilma was impeached because she lost the support of “Centrão” in congress after she refused to help the ex-president of congress with his justice problems. Bolsonaro, knowing that it’s the support of centrão that decides your fate regardless of what you do, started getting much closer to that group after weakening signs of his government in the start of the pandemic. Now he looks more stable because he is giving them favors.

Problem of “Centrão” is that they’re necessary for presidents to have governance but the price paid is very high. And if you don’t attend them, they can suddenly turn against you. It’s a problem of having TOO many different parties. I think around 6 or 7 would be the ideal to end these fisiological ones and force parties to actually be for something.

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Samof94
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« Reply #186 on: October 13, 2020, 06:48:40 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2020, 12:03:33 PM by Samof94 »

His most popular opponent, Lula is unable to run.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #187 on: October 13, 2020, 11:20:15 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2020, 11:44:43 AM by Red Velvet »

His most popular opponent is still in prison.

Who is that? If it’s Lula you may have missed the news but the Supreme Court released him out of jail in 2019. He is free but without political rights, at least for now because there are possible developments on the horizon...

Supreme Court is scheduled to analyze the Lula trial and decide whether Sérgio Moro (judge who sent Lula to jail) was partial or not after the revelations that came out from “The Intercept Brasil”, with leaked messages of Moro. If they decide Moro was partial, Lula would regain his political rights.

I don’t think Lula is the only opponent Bolsonaro has though. Bolsonaro is worried about a possible campaign of Sérgio Moro himself, who he fired during the pandemic due to Moro accusing him of illegally trying to interfere inside Brazilian federal police (Bolsonaro tried to do it to protect his sons from justice). Moro would win votes from the right if he were to run.

The Brazilian right who elected Bolsonaro is now very divided. There are the remaining Bolsonaro supporters and also a growing base that supports Sérgio Moro and is now very against president Bolsonaro because they feel he betrayed them by abandoning the “anti-corruption” agenda represented by Moro for the sake of protecting his family from corruption.

There is actually a right wing protest scheduled for this next Sunday against Bolsonaro lmao. It’s basically the anti-corruption “Car-wash” Sérgio Moro base that is angry about the Supreme Court nomination and the president government. They consider Bolsonaro a “traitor”.

Meanwhile, even from the left, Lula is not the only option. Ciro Gomes could be a conciliatory name for those who just want to end polarization. If the PT were to not run anyone in 2022 just to back Ciro from the background, Ciro would come quite strong (think of Cristina Kirchner running as Fernández VP in Argentina for comparison). The left still has lots of dialogue and organization to do between themselves though. Both Lula and Ciro want to be protagonists, or at least in Lula’s case, he wants his party to be.
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Samof94
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« Reply #188 on: October 13, 2020, 12:04:20 PM »

His most popular opponent is still in prison.

Who is that? If it’s Lula you may have missed the news but the Supreme Court released him out of jail in 2019. He is free but without political rights, at least for now because there are possible developments on the horizon...

Supreme Court is scheduled to analyze the Lula trial and decide whether Sérgio Moro (judge who sent Lula to jail) was partial or not after the revelations that came out from “The Intercept Brasil”, with leaked messages of Moro. If they decide Moro was partial, Lula would regain his political rights.

I don’t think Lula is the only opponent Bolsonaro has though. Bolsonaro is worried about a possible campaign of Sérgio Moro himself, who he fired during the pandemic due to Moro accusing him of illegally trying to interfere inside Brazilian federal police (Bolsonaro tried to do it to protect his sons from justice). Moro would win votes from the right if he were to run.

The Brazilian right who elected Bolsonaro is now very divided. There are the remaining Bolsonaro supporters and also a growing base that supports Sérgio Moro and is now very against president Bolsonaro because they feel he betrayed them by abandoning the “anti-corruption” agenda represented by Moro for the sake of protecting his family from corruption.

There is actually a right wing protest scheduled for this next Sunday against Bolsonaro lmao. It’s basically the anti-corruption “Car-wash” Sérgio Moro base that is angry about the Supreme Court nomination and the president government. They consider Bolsonaro a “traitor”.

Meanwhile, even from the left, Lula is not the only option. Ciro Gomes could be a conciliatory name for those who just want to end polarization. If the PT were to not run anyone in 2022 just to back Ciro from the background, Ciro would come quite strong (think of Cristina Kirchner running as Fernández VP in Argentina for comparison). The left still has lots of dialogue and organization to do between themselves though. Both Lula and Ciro want to be protagonists, or at least in Lula’s case, he wants his party to be.
Don’t forget the prescience of COVID 19.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #189 on: October 15, 2020, 04:35:14 PM »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/15/brazil-police-cash-jair-bolsonaro-ally-buttocks-chico-rodrigues

Quote
Jair Bolsonaro’s efforts to portray himself as an anti-corruption crusader have suffered another blow after police reportedly seized a wad of banknotes from between the clenched buttocks of one of his allies.

Chico Rodrigues, the Brazilian president’s deputy leader in the senate, was reportedly caught with the concealed bundle on Wednesday during a police search of his home. The raid was part of an operation against the suspected misappropriation of public funds for fighting Covid-19.

The Estado de São Paulo newspaper said two sources told it 30,000 reais (more than £4,100) were stashed in the underpants of Rodrigues, a senator for the Amazon state of Roraima.

“To give you a sense of just how preposterous the situation was, some of the recovered notes were stained with faeces,” reported Revista Crusoé, the conservative magazine that broke the story.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #190 on: October 15, 2020, 10:11:53 PM »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/15/brazil-police-cash-jair-bolsonaro-ally-buttocks-chico-rodrigues

Quote
Jair Bolsonaro’s efforts to portray himself as an anti-corruption crusader have suffered another blow after police reportedly seized a wad of banknotes from between the clenched buttocks of one of his allies.

Chico Rodrigues, the Brazilian president’s deputy leader in the senate, was reportedly caught with the concealed bundle on Wednesday during a police search of his home. The raid was part of an operation against the suspected misappropriation of public funds for fighting Covid-19.

The Estado de São Paulo newspaper said two sources told it 30,000 reais (more than £4,100) were stashed in the underpants of Rodrigues, a senator for the Amazon state of Roraima.

“To give you a sense of just how preposterous the situation was, some of the recovered notes were stained with faeces,” reported Revista Crusoé, the conservative magazine that broke the story.

That money he stole and put inside his posterior openings was supposed to go to victims of COVID, which makes this story even more disturbing.
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buritobr
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« Reply #191 on: October 28, 2020, 06:44:34 PM »

Father of the new governor of the state of Santa Catarina is a history teacher who supports neonazi ideas and holocaust denial
Daniela Reinehr was the vice governor of Santa Catarina and became the governor after governor Carlos Moises was impeached. During the inauguration, she was asked by the media about her father's ideas. She just answered that she supports free speech and that she lives in harmony in her family despite differences of ideas. She didn't condem her father's ideas.

Santa Catarina is located in the south of Brazil and is the state which has the biggest population with german ancestry. They are descendants of german immigrants who came to Brazil in the late 19th century and early 20th century. Most of the germans in Santa Catarina are not like germans in Germany in the 21st century. In the cities of Blumenau and Pomerode, most important german colonies in Brazil, Bolsonaro had more than 80% of the votes in the runoff in 2018, while german media has a very negative view on Bolsonaro (of course!). I am not saying that these germans in the south of Brazil are neonazi, but in the average, they are much more conservative than the germans in Germany.
Not all german brazilians are reactionar. The name of the president of the Workers Party (PT) is Gleisi Hoffman. She is from Paraná, another state in the south of Brazil.
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buritobr
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« Reply #192 on: October 29, 2020, 04:26:45 PM »

Glenn Grennwald is not in the Intercept Brasil anymore because this newspaper refused to publish an article against Hunter Biden
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #193 on: November 06, 2020, 02:14:25 PM »

Results of the US election give me hope and dread about this country’s next two years.

Hope = Populists or right wing allies of Bolsonaro are falling down everywhere. Macri was kicked from Argentina last year and now in 2020 it’s Trump, who Bolsonaro always tried to model himself after and use as an excuse to get away with much of the garbage he spews. Now he is completely isolated in a continent where current trend is to move left (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, USA, soon Ecuador...)

Dread = Biden still sucks and I don’t trust him when it comes to Latin America foreign policy. Brazil under Bolsonaro is currently the biggest pro-US country in the region, supporting stuff like interfering in Venezuela, which both US parties are in favor of. I could see Biden siding with Bolsonaro because of that. And if he goes the complete opposite way (and be radically opposition to Bolsonaro), that would be terrible to the country as well even if it has the silver lining of weakening Bolsonaro.

I can understand the Brazilians celebrating the Biden win simply for the sake of owning Bolsonaro because his BFF lost, we’re all at a point where “If Bolsonaro is sad, I’m happy”. But situation will still be very complicated and it isn’t guaranteed we will be able to get rid of that monster ourselves at all.
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buritobr
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« Reply #194 on: November 07, 2020, 03:40:40 PM »

Usually, this result would not make a difference in Brazil. Democratic US presidents have very good relations with right-wing governments in Latin America. But now, there is a different situation in Brazil. We don't have a government on the right. We have a government on the far-right. Bolsonaro lost a very close friend. Only Netanyahu, Orban and Morawiecki remain.
Probably, the elites will increase the pressure on Bolsonaro to behave like a generic right-wing president, like Sebastian Piñera, Lacalle Pou, Mario Benitez, Ivan Duque and Martin Vizcarra. The alt-right wing in Bolsonaro's administration (Ernesto Araújo, Ricardo Sales and Damares) will become more isolated in the world. We still don't know if Bolsonaro will adapt to this new scenario or if he will like to stay isolated.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #195 on: November 07, 2020, 09:02:35 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2020, 09:07:09 PM by Red Velvet »

Yeah, it usually doesn’t really matter at all to Brazil who wins US elections but the Trump-Bolsonaro association with the fascist global movement changed this in the new scenario.

On one hand, I actually was okay with Trump isolationism as a whole, less US presence on the world is always more good than not. Biden will be the same old, which ehhh. But seeing fascism get weaker globally and consequentially Bolsonaro, made me lean towards preferring Biden even if I don’t trust him at all.

All democratic presidents have supported the right-wingers in Latin America but Bolsonaro is a very special and more extreme case so I’m curious to see what happens. What you say is probably right, Biden will likely try to be mostly friendly to Bolsonaro but keeping a safe distance in order to not intoxicate himself and also putting pressures in private conversations in regards the environment. Bolsonaro will moderate somewhat in the environment because it’s not like he has other friends at this point, since he fights with everyone, and that’s it. It will probably be that boring.

Even then, the notion of a US president with the intention of pushing a Brazilian one to the progressive left, even if in one specific issue only, is kinda of mindblowing to me lol. Last time I can think of something similar is during late 70s, when Jimmy Carter (the last US president who was worth something) wanted explanations about human right abuses in the military dictatorship.

That’s why part of me still believes Biden will end up being mostly friends with Bolsonaro just for the sake of interfering in Venezuela. But I’m happy it’s not Trump.
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buritobr
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« Reply #196 on: November 08, 2020, 08:00:22 AM »

Yes, there is a paralell to Jimmy Carter. He increased the pressure on general Ernesto Geisel in order to increase political openness.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #197 on: November 08, 2020, 11:25:25 AM »

Biden will know how much Bolsonaro was one of Trump's biggest cheerleaders.

For that reason alone, I doubt that they will be too pally.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #198 on: November 08, 2020, 12:13:28 PM »

Yes, there is a paralell to Jimmy Carter. He increased the pressure on general Ernesto Geisel in order to increase political openness.

Jimmy Carter >>> Joe Biden though. The left celebrating Biden’s victory way too much after everything he said in regards to Brazil and/or Latin America is a bit nauseating to me honestly, people are so traumatized because only political disasters happen since 2015 that the small hint of a shift domestically and Bolsonaro more sad and isolated is enough for them to exaggerate and act like you cannot criticize Biden at all.

Which is understandable at the moment, but I hope these people don’t act like voting for Sérgio Moro, who is responsible for a lot of this mess of the rise of fascism (and why it’s more common to see judges acting like they’re GODS), is someone we should be excited for in order to defeat Bolsonaro. A Moro vs Bolsonaro is the only scenario I would refuse to vote for anyone. Any other scenario I would vote against Bolsonaro.

Criticism is important in order for people to not lose perspective. I think the symbolism is very important but it’s not everything.
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buritobr
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« Reply #199 on: November 08, 2020, 03:12:51 PM »

Ernesto Geisel > Jair Bolsonaro
Geisel launched the 2nd national development plan in order to keep the high GDP growth after the 1973 oil shock. Most of the investment of this plan was conducted by state owned enterprises. Geisel recognized PR China and not Taiwan as the true China. Geisel was in the same side of Fidel Castro in the civil war in Angola: he recognized the MPLA government. Geisel was closer to the arabs than Israel in the Middle East conflict. Geisel made an agreement with FR Germany in order to import technology to build the Angra nuclear power plant. Geisel tried to increase trade with Japan, European Community and even the eastern european communist bloc in order to become more independent of the USA.
During the disagreement between Jimmy Carter and Ernesto Geisel, the brazilian left didn't know which side to choose. On one side, Jimmy Carter was trying to push the end of the dictatorship. On the other side, Geisel was trying to have a more nationalist approach to the economy and to the foreign policy.
Bolsonaro is very different. He supports Chicago economics. He is an underdog in foreign policy. He will not appeal to anti-american leftists if Biden criticizes his administration.
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