Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[brucejoel99]

I realize it is still quite a ways off, but how do Bolsonaro's reelection prospects look? Is he favoured or an underdog?

Something tells me that fiddling while a pandemic looms would indeed cost him re-election in 2022, yes.

[buritobr]

I realize it is still quite a ways off, but how do Bolsonaro's reelection prospects look? Is he favoured or an underdog?

Also, considering how fractured Brazil's Congress is, does he have support there to impose his policies?

Well, during 2019, Bolsonaro always had the good/very good rating in the polls between 30% and 40%. It is too high considering how horrible he is, but it is the lowest approval rate for an elected president in the first year of the first term (worse than Collor 1990, Fernando Henrique Cardoso 1995, Lula 2003 and Dilma Rousseff 2011). But when simulation polls were done for 2022, he would still defeat a PT candidate in the runoff, no matter if the PT candidate is Lula or Haddad.
After the covid, no national polls were done, but a poll made by phone in the city of São Paulo showed 26% good/very good, 25% regular and 48% bad/very bad.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

After the covid, no national polls were done, but a poll made by phone in the city of São Paulo showed 26% good/very good,

So the proportion of Brazilians who are uber-hack far-right automata is about 1/4, as opposed to the US where it's about 1/3. Good to know.

[PSOL]

https://twitter.com/salgado_ro/status/1246574367670140930?s=21

You know, I feel partly responsible for the US coup to succeed in the way it did. It makes no sense, but I feel that as I live here, I am responsible in allowing a military junta to be imposed on the Brazilian people.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/salgado_ro/status/1246574367670140930?s=21

So, this is basically just a Brazilian version of that NY Times op-ed from people working for Trump acknowledging how they don't follow his orders?

[buritobr]

There was no coup, but Bolsonaro is becoming less and less important. He talks to his cattle that he is against the shutdown, but since the governors, the mayors, the congress, the supreme court, the military, and even the minister of health are supporting the shutdown, the shutdown is going on.

In this week, the congress approved a R$600 (US$120) monthly transfer for workers who do not have a regular job. It is hard for these workers to earn money during the shutdown. Bolsonaro and Guedes used bureacratic constraints to delay these payments: they want to turn these starving people against the governors and mayors who ordered the shutdown. Maybe, the transfers will start this week.

[CumbrianLefty]

If this virus brings down Bolsonaro, it just shows how there is a sliver lining to everything.

[buritobr]

Datafolha Poll April 3rd 2020

A sample of 1500 brazilians were interviewed by phone

Rating of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/Very good: 33%
Regular: 25%
Bad/Very bad: 39%

Age
16-24: 24% g vg, 30% r, 45% b vb
25-34: 30% g vg, 22% r, 47% b vb
35-44: 38% g vg, 24% r, 36% b vb
45-59: 35% g vg, 22% r, 40% b vb
60-: 37% g vg, 29% r, 31% b vb

School
Elementary: 34% g vg, 28% r, 35% b vb
High School: 35% g vg, 25% r, 38% b vb
College: 28% g vg, 20% r, 50% b vb

Income (1 Minimum Wage = R$1000 monthly = US$200 monthly)
<2MW: 32% g vg, 26% r, 40% b vb
2-5 MW: 35% g vg, 27% r, 36% b vb
5-10 MW: 36% g vg, 20% r, 42% b vb
>10 MW: 32% g vg, 21% r, 46% b vb

Some of you might think: how this horrible president and horrible person has 1/3 of approval rate? Most of the evangelic churches support him, and many evangelicals are brainwashed.
Some months ago, the upper-income people approve Bolsonaro more than the low-income people because they support Paulo Guedes's economic policies. But after the anti-social distancing views, Bolsonaro lost support of the higher income people. However, he kept the endorsement of many low-income people. They have never heard about an exponential function, and so, they don't understand that most casualities related to the covid19 didn't take place in Brazil now, but they will take place in the next days. Many inhabitants of slums do not have a regular job, they only sell things in the streets, and they are loosing money because of the social distancing.

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro fires popular health minister after dispute over coronavirus response

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/bolsonaro-brazil-president-luiz-mandetta-health-minister

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/04/19/world/americas/ap-lt-brazil-bolsonaro.html

On the day Brazil celebrates its army, Bolsonaro made an appearance at the protest held in front of the army’s headquarters, in the capital city of Brasilia. There, dozens of tightly-packed protesters, many of whom were not wearing masks, were calling for the Supreme Court and Congress to be shut down.

"I am here because I believe in you. You are here because you believe in Brazil,” said Bolsonaro, a former army captain who waxes nostalgic for the country's 1964-1985 dictatorship.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/coronavirus-brazilian-president-jair-bolsonaro-coughs-over-his-fans/news-story/c950975d2e7fb2e7445fa3c49f503c33

During his address, which was interspersed with fits of coughing, the President made no response to the crowd’s call for military intervention nor the demand to close congress. “You must fight for your country. Count on your President to do what is necessary so that we can guarantee democracy and what is most dear to us, our freedom,” Mr Bolsonaro said.

This is actually surreal lol, even Trump doesn't come close. This guy is physically spreading coronavirus, not just with his incompetence.

[Babeuf]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/brazil-justice-minister-sergio-moro-resigns-jair-bolsonaro

Moro quits.

[buritobr]

Sergio Moro accused Jair Bolsonaro of asking him to intervene in investigations conducted by the Federal Police (the Federal Police is branch which belongs to the Ministry of Justice). There are ongoing investigations against Flavio Bolsonaro due to his connections to the organized crime of Rio de Janeiro and against Carlos Bolsonaro because he his suspect of controlling a hoax distribution machine through Whatsapp and Internet against opponents of Bolsonaros.
If this accusation is true, this is a crime of responsability, and an impeachment process can start.

[RodPresident]

Sergio Moro accused Jair Bolsonaro of asking him to intervene in investigations conducted by the Federal Police (the Federal Police is branch which belongs to the Ministry of Justice). There are ongoing investigations against Flavio Bolsonaro due to his connections to the organized crime of Rio de Janeiro and against Carlos Bolsonaro because he his suspect of controlling a hoax distribution machine through Whatsapp and Internet against opponents of Bolsonaros.
If this accusation is true, this is a crime of responsability, and an impeachment process can start.

Bolsonaro made a speech along his cabinet (including VP Mourao) saying that Moro was against him in Presidency. He remembered an episode when Moro refused to shake his hands in airport in 2017 and for not working to get "who paid to kill me?" (he thinks that 2018 stabbing was a conspiracy). Now PDT (Democratic Labour Party, my party) added a new impeachment denounce, as REDE, PSB and Greens. Even PSL (Bolsonaro's former party) will ask his impeachment.

[brucejoel99]

Sergio Moro accused Jair Bolsonaro of asking him to intervene in investigations conducted by the Federal Police (the Federal Police is branch which belongs to the Ministry of Justice). There are ongoing investigations against Flavio Bolsonaro due to his connections to the organized crime of Rio de Janeiro and against Carlos Bolsonaro because he his suspect of controlling a hoax distribution machine through Whatsapp and Internet against opponents of Bolsonaros.
If this accusation is true, this is a crime of responsability, and an impeachment process can start.

Bolsonaro made a speech along his cabinet (including VP Mourao) saying that Moro was against him in Presidency. He remembered an episode when Moro refused to shake his hands in airport in 2017 and for not working to get "who paid to kill me?" (he thinks that 2018 stabbing was a conspiracy). Now PDT (Democratic Labour Party, my party) added a new impeachment denounce, as REDE, PSB and Greens. Even PSL (Bolsonaro's former party) will ask his impeachment.

2 questions: When can we expect President Mourão? And could/would he (somehow) manage to be worse than Bolsonaro?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Sergio Moro accused Jair Bolsonaro of asking him to intervene in investigations conducted by the Federal Police (the Federal Police is branch which belongs to the Ministry of Justice). There are ongoing investigations against Flavio Bolsonaro due to his connections to the organized crime of Rio de Janeiro and against Carlos Bolsonaro because he his suspect of controlling a hoax distribution machine through Whatsapp and Internet against opponents of Bolsonaros.
If this accusation is true, this is a crime of responsability, and an impeachment process can start.

Bolsonaro made a speech along his cabinet (including VP Mourao) saying that Moro was against him in Presidency. He remembered an episode when Moro refused to shake his hands in airport in 2017 and for not working to get "who paid to kill me?" (he thinks that 2018 stabbing was a conspiracy). Now PDT (Democratic Labour Party, my party) added a new impeachment denounce, as REDE, PSB and Greens. Even PSL (Bolsonaro's former party) will ask his impeachment.

2 questions: When can we expect President Mourão? And could/would he (somehow) manage to be worse than Bolsonaro?

My understanding is that Mourão, while terrible in his own right, is not as bad as Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

General Hamilton Mourão is very bad. He has very right-wing views and he is a little stupid. But he is the lesser of the evils comparing to Jair Bolsonaro. At least, Mourão doesn't have anti-science and religious fundamentalist views.
Jair Bolsonaro was a captain of the army in the 1980s and he was fired. Hamilton Mourão got retired from the army only in March 2018, when he decided to become Bolsonaro's running mate. A Mourão administration would increase the power of the military. This is not too bad: Bolsonaro's military ministers are not as bad as his civilian ministers.

[Quincy Kelley]

Who will the opposition push to run against Bolsonaro in 2022 & can he or she give him a run for his money ?

[brucejoel99]

Who will the opposition push to run against Bolsonaro in 2022 & can he or she give him a run for his money ?

Lula was freed & is now out of jail, right? I'd presume him if at all possible, but one of our Brazilian posters is obviously better positioned to answer this question than me lol

[buritobr]

Lula is in parole because he served more than 1/6 of the sentence, but he is still sentenced and so he is not allowed to run. Besides, this week, Lula told that he doesn't want to run in 2022 because he is too old and tired. He was born in 1945.
The nominee of the left will be probably Fernando Haddad again, or Ciro Gomes again or Flavio Dino, governor of Maranhão who is making a good administration. Dino belongs to the Communist Party, although he is not communist.
The nominee of the center-right will be probably João Doria, governor of São Paulo, Sérgio Moro or Luciano Huck, a TV star.

[buritobr]

More than 10 thousand brazilians lost their lives because of the covid.
Maybe this number is highing. Some people who passed away were not tested.

[CumbrianLefty]

Bolsonaro has to be near the top of the league for his totally maladroit handling of this virus.

[RodPresident]

Today, Minister of Health Nelson Teich resigns after less of 1 month in office. He refused to allow use of hydroxicloroquine who is supported by Jair Bolsonaro. Yesterday, Bolsonaro made a Provisional Measure to autoamnesty for any mismanagement commited during pandemics, as allowing medicines with scientifical approval, but this is very liked to be axed by Supreme Court or Congress.

[buritobr]

Video of the meeting with all ministers in April 22nd showed Bolsonaro speaking that he wanted to change the director of the Federal Police in order to avoid investigation of his son, who has close links to the "militia" in Rio de Janeiro. Of course this is an offense: appointing people for public office according to personal interests. There is a legal justification for the impeachment. However it is still not clear if there will be 2/3 of the votes of the House.

[buritobr]

Datafolha poll, 2,000 people interviewed, May 28th
Rating of Bolsonaro administration
33% Good/Very good
22% Regular
43% Bad/Very bad
This poll has an error in the sample: 63% of the interviewed people answered that they voted for Bolsonaro in the runoff in 2018. He had 55%. So, the good/very good is overestimated. Other polls show ~25% for good/Very good and ~50% for bad/very bad

[buritobr]

Federal Police caught cell phones and computers of congresspeople and businesspeople who were participating in a pro-Bolsonaro propaganda network. This network used to spread fake news against Bolsonaro opponents through the Whatsapp. The investigation of the Federal Police might show further evidence about this network.