Can Liz Truss still beat George Canning?

[Sestak]

So, of course, for this to happen, first of all, the Conservative leadership election next week clearly cannot be allowed to resolve cleanly; if it does then Truss leaves office not even reaching half of Canning's tenure.

However, during the leadup to this leadership election we have seen several MPs threaten to defect from the party depending on the outcome of the leadership. Assume this happens; furthermore assume that there are enough defections to deny the resulting leader a Commons majority. We then enter a truly hung parliament; if no one can muster a majority from this point onward it will force a dissolution. The UK would then enter an election campaign...presumably with Truss continuing to serve as caretaker PM.


Now, to match Canning Truss needs to make it until Jan 2. General elections are generally a Thursday, so she would need this election to occur on Jan 5 at the earliest. Apparently 25 business days need to pass between dissolution and an election; so that 25 day mark needs to be reached on Dec 30 or later. 25 business days before that (noting that Dec 26 and Nov 30 are bank holidays) would be November 23.

Now, of course, December 29 is a rather ugly election date; let's say that having the election between Christmas and New Year's is a little bit too unpalatable. In this case, of course, we only need the dissolution to occur on or after November 17.

So of course this only leaves one main question: whether, in the above scenario, there is any possible sequence of events in which it takes a full three weeks between the end of the leadership election (Oct 28) and a dissolution of Parliament (Nov 17 or later)? If someone can come up with one, I'd say she's definitely still in it. She's a fighter, not a quitter.

[brucejoel99]

William Cavendish-Bentinck, the 3rd Duke of Portland, briefly served as PM in 1783 (having been selected as the titular head of the Fox-North coalition) before returning to No. 10 for a 2-year tenure beginning in 1807, so since a 2nd Truss ministry in 2046 when she's 71 can't be ruled out because:

She's a fighter, not a quitter.

George Canning better be rolling over in his grave with one eye open.

[Lumine]

Not that I think this is plausible, but it's not technically impossible that the mysterious rogue power some have alluded to (gee, I wonder who it might be) manages to hack and disrupt the online membership vote - if there is one - and it becomes necessary to repeat it or make it a paper one, with the resulting delay in terms of days or weeks.

It seems measures are being taken and other issues - such as elderly members being shut out of the process - are endlessly more likely to be more of a real problem, but I think that's the cleanest route to prolong this for a bit. How you get from there to a dissolution with Truss herself as Acting PM - and presumably still Tory leader - during an election is more difficult, but it might involve Boris being suspended by the privileges committee. Not sure how to get Sunak to implode as well, but given the rate of PM's undergoing spontaneous combustion, I suppose it's not imposssible anymore.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is a real potential for this online vote going horribly wrong, I will say that much.

[Silent Hunter]

There is a real potential for this online vote going horribly wrong, I will say that much.

A lot of members don't have email addresses

That's grounds for an indirect discrimination lawsuit.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

There is a real potential for this online vote going horribly wrong, I will say that much.

A lot of members don't have email addresses

That's grounds for an indirect discrimination lawsuit.

Boris reached 100 MPs

Online vote, Sunak wins and is installed as PM

Boris sues for discrimination

Rerun the vote, Boris wins

Tory MPs defect + Boris is sanctioned by the privileges committee leading to a VONC

General election, Labour wins