1976 GOP primaries if there was no Watergate

[UWS]

I guess that if Watergate did not occur and if Richard Nixon was still President in 1976, Vice-President Gerald Ford and former Governor Ronald Reagan would still have ran. But in that scenario, would the Republican primary field be larger? If yes, which other candidates do you think would have run for the Republican nomination in 1976? Who would have won the nomination and how would the primary map look like?

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Actually, Ford had 0 interest in being President. He only ran OTL because the job fell into his lap (Like other VPs who became Presidents after the deaths/resignations of their president (John Tyler, Millard Filmore, Andrew Johnson, Chester Arthur, Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, LBJ), so he wouldn't have ran. The job Ford really wanted was Speaker of the House. No Watergate = No Ford, but it does mean John Connally, who Nixon was obsessed with, would run and with Nixon's support. Likely, John gets the Nom due to Nixon but loses the General to Church, as there would be no need for the honesty of Carter.

[President Johnson]

John Conally or Nelson Rockefeller would have been the nominee, defeating Ronald Reagan with President Nixon's help. I could imagine something like a Connally/Laxalt or Rockefeller/Dole ticket emerge and winning the general election against Mo Udall, Ed Muskie or Scoop Jackson (without Watergate, Carter goes nowhere if he ran). However, Connally would have been a one term president due to the troubles on the world stage mounting in 1979, a declining economy and the difficulty for one party to win four elections in a row. In 1980, a Democrat like Lloyd Bentsen or Reubin Askew would have won handily. Rocky would have most likely died in his term, and his VP still lose in 1980.

Gerald Ford would have completed his term as vice president in 1977 and that's it. He had no interest in being elected president until he assumed office.

In conclusion, without Watergate, I'm sure, Ronald Reagan would never have been president. Same with Carter.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

John Conally or Nelson Rockefeller would have been the nominee, defeating Ronald Reagan with President Nixon's help. I could imagine something like a Connally/Laxalt or Rockefeller/Dole ticket emerge and winning the general election against Mo Udall, Ed Muskie or Scoop Jackson (without Watergate, Carter goes nowhere if he ran). However, Connally would have been a one term president due to the troubles on the world stage mounting in 1979, a declining economy and the difficulty for one party to win four elections in a row. In 1980, a Democrat like Lloyd Bentsen or Reubin Askew would have won handily. Rocky would have most likely died in his term, and his VP still lose in 1980.

Gerald Ford would have completed his term as vice president in 1977 and that's it. He had no interest in being elected president until he assumed office.

In conclusion, without Watergate, I'm sure, Ronald Reagan would never have been president. Same with Carter.

There was a storm brewing. If it didn't come in 1976 or 1980, it would have come by 1992. There was an interesting (and good for the time, if not fully fleshed out to modern standards) Rockefeller '68 timeline done some years ago (c. 2010 or earlier) by user hantheguitarman where the moderates and liberals in the GOP dominated the 70's and 80's, but by '88 they had nominated Kemp and barely lost and in 1992 Gingrich won.* In retrospect, we can change the player names and faces, but suffice it to say I think the right would have eventually risen in the party despite the machinations of Rockefeller and the like. I, for the record, don't see Rockefeller ever getting the nomination in a 1976 that, for the Republicans, is relatively unchanged from real life. If he won, he would have faced a revolt and lost the general election. I agree with your assessment on who the Democrats likely nominate, though I see Jackson in the same light as Rockefeller.

_{*The list of presidents went Rockefeller ('69-'75); Tower ('75-'81) who took over after Rockefeller's death and faced stiff primary challenges in 1980 from both Reagan and Anderson; Jerry Brown ('81-'89); Jimmy Carter ('89-'93) who was Brown's Vice President and narrowly beat Kemp while losing the popular vote; and Newt Gingrich ('93-?). While Han had Brown follow a generally libertarian path (something that I think would have been moderated if not cancelled out in a universe where he becomes president), I can realistically see Brown as the "rock star"/Kennedy-style candidate the Democrats, after three losses in a row, would be ready to nominate by 1980.}

[Lechasseur]

I think John Connally would win the GOP nomination and he'd have a good shot at winning the General Election in November.

[TrumanJohnson]

I think John Connally would win the GOP nomination and he'd have a good shot at winning the General Election in November.

I agree. I think Connally would be the frontrunner nearly the whole time during the primaries and would win the nomination. I can see Reagan running too. Not Rockefeller, it was over for him. Maybe Charles Percy would take his place?

[dw93]

It's Reagan vs. Rocky and Reagan wins the nomination despite Nixon's wishes (he'd begrudgingly back Rocky). It was too soon for Connally as he was a Democrat as recent as 1972 and was very close to LBJ, therefore I don't see the Republican base going for it and as others have stated, Ford had no interest in running for President until the job was thrust upon him. As for the general, it depends on who the Democrats nominate in this scenario and how much support (campaigning, etc...) Reagan would get from Nixon in the general. Regardless of who wins, whichever party wins is most likely getting tossed out in 1980.

[darklordoftech]

It's Reagan vs. Rocky and Reagan wins the nomination despite Nixon's wishes (he'd begrudgingly back Rocky). It was too soon for Connally as he was a Democrat as recent as 1972 and was very close to LBJ, therefore I don't see the Republican base going for it and as others have stated, Ford had no interest in running for President until the job was thrust upon him. As for the general, it depends on who the Democrats nominate in this scenario and how much support (campaigning, etc...) Reagan would get from Nixon in the general. Regardless of who wins, whichever party wins is most likely getting tossed out in 1980.

If Reagan gets nominated and then defeated, does he run again in 1980?

[brucejoel99]

Well, w/ the only real blemish of the Nixon second term having been Agnew's resignation, I could see Nixon (who had actually grown to dislike Agnew) successfully appointing Connally as his VP instead of Ford since, without Watergate & the risk of Nixon's resignation or impeachment from office, Congress would have much less of a leg to stand on re: forcing an inoffensive potential president, Ford, upon Nixon; thus, without Watergate & it forcing Nixon to back down to Congress, Nixon's in a strong position to insist upon his first choice, Connally. Also b/c of this, Ford (having never even been Vice President let alone President) stays in the House as Minority Leader &, as he originally planned, retires from politics after the 1976 elections (& obviously doesn't seek the GOP nomination in 1976).

So, following on the heels of Connally's confirmation, plus a potential SALT II pact w/ the Soviet Union (b/c, without Watergate, this would likely have been able to be reached by Nixon b/c initial efforts to lay the groundwork for the creation of a general framework for a SALT II pact were actually already underway while Nixon was still President) & potentially substantial GOP gains in the 1974 elections, Connally is likely the frontrunner for the GOP nomination going into 1976.

When it comes to the GOP primaries, Connally, Reagan, & Rockefeller would all run, as well as perennial candidate Harold Stassen (who would, of course, win no delegates). Rockefeller would have the dwindling liberal GOP base all to himself, but would obviously be doomed even before he begins, leaving Reagan & Connally to duke it out for the nomination. Despite his popularity, Reagan's overall hopes would've been bleak; Connally would've had the party machinery on his side. Eventually, Rockefeller's fundraising would dry up & he'd drop out of the race in May, which would provide breathing room for Connally. W/ the Republican contest settling on a victor, Reagan would continue on to the end, but w/ Connally running the table, he wouldn't win another state after mid-May, & Connally would be a first ballot nominee.

[brucejoel99]

It's Reagan vs. Rocky and Reagan wins the nomination despite Nixon's wishes (he'd begrudgingly back Rocky). It was too soon for Connally as he was a Democrat as recent as 1972 and was very close to LBJ, therefore I don't see the Republican base going for it and as others have stated, Ford had no interest in running for President until the job was thrust upon him. As for the general, it depends on who the Democrats nominate in this scenario and how much support (campaigning, etc...) Reagan would get from Nixon in the general. Regardless of who wins, whichever party wins is most likely getting tossed out in 1980.

If Reagan gets nominated and then defeated, does he run again in 1980?

Not OP but it's a definite possibility. Knowing him, he might've still had a chance at winning both the nomination & the Presidency, but his odds would've been much smaller.