Impending demographic crisis in China....

[Tender Branson]

15 million births or slightly lower would just be "back to normal" for China and is certainly not a "crisis".

We have to remember that there was a quick rush among younger couples to get an additional 2nd child over the previous 2 years, when the 1-child-policy was relaxed.

That led to a brief increase in births in 2016 and 2017 and in 2018 it just went down to normal levels, because couples are not interested in getting 3 kids these days (too expensive).

But even with 15 million births in a country of 1400 million, the birth rate is still above 1% and therefore much higher than in European countries, while the death rate is only at 0.7% - so there is still a natural increase of 5-6 million people each year.

The numbers from other countries nearby, such as Taiwan, South Korea and especially Japan do not bode well for China in the long-term tough, but China is still miles away from their situation.

And even then it would not be bad: a declining population would be good for the World.

[Tender Branson]

And even then it would not be bad: a declining population would be good for the World.

When do you think China's population will start to decline?

Hard to tell because China's government might fully scrap birth control in the near future, which could lead to another brief increase in births, but eventually it will drop again.

Currently (2018), China has ~15 million births and about 10 million deaths.

The death rate is only increasing slowly and might reach 11 million by 2030.

So the big question will be how births develop. I don't see them dropping below 13-14 million until 2030 and certainly not below the number of deaths.

Which means at least until 2035 the Chinese population will not decline.

It will likely hit 1.46 Bio. people in 2035 before it starts declining in a slow manner.

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