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  Talk Elections
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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: ON Progressive)
  Why did Romney do so poorly in Colorado?
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Author Topic: Why did Romney do so poorly in Colorado?  (Read 2258 times)
Cyrusman
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« on: December 31, 2018, 08:28:12 pm »

For a state that has a very Libertarian feel to it I thought he was an ideal candidate and the type of republican who could carry it. Not only did he lose but it wasnít close. What happened?
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Autumn Springs
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« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2018, 08:47:51 pm »

According to exit polls, whites swung heavily towards Romney. It was in fact the only statewide race in CO this decade in which the Republican won the white female vote, which went solidly for Romney 53/46. I remember reading here on Atlas that college educated whites carried Obama to victory in CO in 2008, but Hispanics in 2012.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2019, 08:50:14 pm »

He didn't do well enough with college educated whites to carry the state relative to his Hispanic numbers. He also didn't do as well in Southern Colorado as Trump did.
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Biden/Abrams Voter
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« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2019, 11:50:16 pm »

According to exit polls, whites swung heavily towards Romney. It was in fact the only statewide race in CO this decade in which the Republican won the white female vote, which went solidly for Romney 53/46. I remember reading here on Atlas that college educated whites carried Obama to victory in CO in 2008, but Hispanics in 2012.

CO, NV & VA would have been the first states to flip to Romney based on improved performance among Latinos alone, and all of them would have flipped at roughly the same point (i.e. if Romney had won around 45% of the national Latino vote). Ultimately, Romney won 27% nationally and 23% in CO.

The only state in 2012 where Latinos made any difference in the EV outcome (within the parameters of possible Latino turnout & support) was FL - and even there, it was mostly due to a quirk in Cuban voting patterns. One of the biggest misconceptions about the overall outcome of the 2012 presidential election is that Latinos had any influence on it.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2019, 12:28:21 am »

According to exit polls, whites swung heavily towards Romney. It was in fact the only statewide race in CO this decade in which the Republican won the white female vote, which went solidly for Romney 53/46. I remember reading here on Atlas that college educated whites carried Obama to victory in CO in 2008, but Hispanics in 2012.

CO, NV & VA would have been the first states to flip to Romney based on improved performance among Latinos alone, and all of them would have flipped at roughly the same point (i.e. if Romney had won around 45% of the national Latino vote). Ultimately, Romney won 27% nationally and 23% in CO.

The only state in 2012 where Latinos made any difference in the EV outcome (within the parameters of possible Latino turnout & support) was FL - and even there, it was mostly due to a quirk in Cuban voting patterns. One of the biggest misconceptions about the overall outcome of the 2012 presidential election is that Latinos had any influence on it.

The simple fact for the matter is that Romney was boxed in on too many fronts. The one area where the donors and the consultant class were willing to give him free range to manuerve and grow, he was horribly ill suited to do so because of not only the path and process he used to become the nominee but also because of all his other positions. This represents the great cognitive dissonance on the part of GOP donors, think tanks and the like that all they have to do is be the ones crowned with the victory of legalizing them and they will be rewarded with endless votes for the Paul Ryan agenda. It is that very agenda that will just as quickly induce them to vote Democratic.

Romney went too far to the right on social issues to win enough college educated whites in the suburbs. He had gone too fiscally conservative during the recession and thus hurt his chances in the Midwest (Let Detroit Go Bankrupt) and he had embraced Paul Ryan, hurting him across the board in all states, but especially Florida and the Midwest.

Had Romney not been constrained by his donors and consultants, as well as the primary factions, he would have probably tried to expand among what we now call non-college whites. Romney could have thus won with a slightly more traditional map with slightly fewer non-college whites than Trump got but way more college educated whites than Trump managed to get.

Too me Romney's potential is like that of a fish too big to bring on board the boat, so you tie it to the side and drag it in only to find it has been picked clean.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2019, 11:39:06 am »

Democratic dominance in the Denver area, sweeping not just the city but also the heavily populated suburban counties around Denver, particularly Adams, Arapahoe, & Jefferson counties, as well as winning Larimer County, home to Fort Collins. Obama also took nearly 70% of the vote in Boulder County, home to Boulder, & won Chaffee County, which he'd lost to McCain in 2008.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2019, 10:26:47 pm »

Urban areas have been increasingly going towards democrats, and Denver is a decently urban area, so that might have helped fluctuate the margin a bit
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sg0508
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« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2020, 10:56:48 pm »

In states where the youth vote is growing, you better be able to connect with those 18-29.  He couldn't do it, seemed out of touch, etc.
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Forumlurker
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« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2020, 11:20:27 pm »

It was Southern Colorado and the Adams county/Northern Denver metro suburbs. He had TONS of appeal in parts of Jefferson and Arapahoe (but not enough to win either) but Colorado has plenty of more working class areas that werenít so Romney-keen. Add rural South Colorado (Pueblo is basically a rust belt city tbh) and itís evident why Romney didnít over perform as much as thought.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2020, 11:52:21 pm »

He lost the Adams/Arapahoe/Jefferson/Larimer area.
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annecortez
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« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2020, 09:29:32 pm »

That is because he didn't campaign that much on Colorado. He could have gotten bigger votes if he did that.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2020, 10:06:49 pm »

Why does it matter he did so poorly in Colorado because of Hispanics?
He lost because he was an elitist who actually managed to make Appalachian Ohio counties SWING to Obama. He could have won like say 65% of Hispanics in 2012 and still lost the election.
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Cayahougac
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« Reply #12 on: April 25, 2020, 10:18:31 am »

He didn't do well enough with college educated whites to carry the state relative to his Hispanic numbers. He also didn't do as well in Southern Colorado as Trump did.

without the Denver suburbs like Jefferson which bush carried twice, and losing usually Republican territory like pueblo county. this is why colorado is now leaning blue.
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Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #13 on: April 25, 2020, 10:38:35 am »

He didn't do well enough with college educated whites to carry the state relative to his Hispanic numbers. He also didn't do as well in Southern Colorado as Trump did.

without the Denver suburbs like Jefferson which bush carried twice, and losing usually Republican territory like pueblo county. this is why colorado is now leaning blue.
iirc Jefferson County has a long-standing bellwether status in CO, missing only one election in recent history: CO-SEN 2014.
Also, welcome to the forum.
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El Betico
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« Reply #14 on: April 29, 2020, 06:28:48 pm »

Why does it matter he did so poorly in Colorado because of Hispanics?
He lost because he was an elitist who actually managed to make Appalachian Ohio counties SWING to Obama. He could have won like say 65% of Hispanics in 2012 and still lost the election.

Well, in that specific case he probably would have won California and thus the election, XD...but yeah, Romney could have had the Bush numbers with Hispanics and would have almost certainly lost the election even in that case...with Hispanics on his side in those '04 numbers he could have won Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia, and probably the PV, only for losing 273-265 in the EC...Obama coalition was really impressive...the Dem mistake in 2016 was assuming that it was THEIR and not HIS coalition, in my opinion.
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Sol
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« Reply #15 on: May 14, 2020, 03:31:06 pm »

the Dem mistake in 2016 was assuming that it was THEIR and not HIS coalition, in my opinion.

This is, I think, the smartest and most succinct way to summarize the failure of 2016.
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SN2903
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« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2020, 12:27:38 pm »

Romney did not appeal enough to the electorate as a whole. His base was white suburbanites. He did terrible with AA, Hispanics and not great with WWC voters.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2020, 02:03:29 pm »

Romney did not appeal enough to the electorate as a whole. His base was white suburbanites. He did terrible with AA, Hispanics and not great with WWC voters.

Yup.
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