Elizabeth Warren 2020 campaign megathread

[Strong Candidate]

New York is later in the game, but Warren is absolutely killing it with her grassroots support and endorsements from local politicos and the WFP there. I'm very interested to see her campaign continue to develop.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

At least they endorsed a progressive this time.

[Heebie Jeebie]

https://twitter.com/djbj34/status/1173792148640026625

[2016]

Warren definitly has some Momentum. She had two solid Debates in Detroit & Houston. I think the Democratic Race will all come down to Iowa. If she beats Biden & Sanders there she has a very good shot at this. If Biden wins IA the Race is over.

[jacobmeteorite]

 So now that Julian Castro has shown himself to be inherently nasty, he’s not gonna be VP anymore. So who else do we think could be Elizabeth’s vice president? How about Catherine Cortez Masto?

[Heebie Jeebie]

So now that Julian Castro has shown himself to be inherently nasty, he’s not gonna be VP anymore. So who else do we think could be Elizabeth’s vice president? How about Catherine Cortez Masto?

1.  Ha, Castro being nasty.  Sure.  Go back and watch some of the debates from the 1992 Democratic primaries if you want to see nasty. The back-and-forth between Clinton and Jerry Brown makes Castro's jabs look like pattycake.
2.  In any case, the running mate is supposed to be an attack dog, and so far Castro is the only one to show any willingness to attack.
3.  Nevada is still too purple to give up CCM's incumbency advantage and trigger an unnecessary special election.

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1174068229024755712

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1174068229024755712

All signs point to Warren!

[jacobmeteorite]

So now that Julian Castro has shown himself to be inherently nasty, he’s not gonna be VP anymore. So who else do we think could be Elizabeth’s vice president? How about Catherine Cortez Masto?

1.  Ha, Castro being nasty.  Sure.  Go back and watch some of the debates from the 1992 Democratic primaries if you want to see nasty. The back-and-forth between Clinton and Jerry Brown makes Castro's jabs look like pattycake.
2.  In any case, the running mate is supposed to be an attack dog, and so far Castro is the only one to show any willingness to attack.
3.  Nevada is still too purple to give up CCM's incumbency advantage and trigger an unnecessary special election.

Cmon, you didn’t cringe when he hammered him, “Did you really just forget what you just said?”
I mean, it was belittling, and he’s had to be on the defensive, because nobody was feeling that tone AT ALL (and I say this as a fellow progressive Latino, so I’m not coming at it from a racial bias. It was just straight up nasty of him.)

I can’t imagine EW was like, “sign my ticket up for that.” When someone takes a swing, they better land it, and Julian missed hard.

[Heebie Jeebie]

So now that Julian Castro has shown himself to be inherently nasty, he’s not gonna be VP anymore. So who else do we think could be Elizabeth’s vice president? How about Catherine Cortez Masto?

1.  Ha, Castro being nasty.  Sure.  Go back and watch some of the debates from the 1992 Democratic primaries if you want to see nasty. The back-and-forth between Clinton and Jerry Brown makes Castro's jabs look like pattycake.
2.  In any case, the running mate is supposed to be an attack dog, and so far Castro is the only one to show any willingness to attack.
3.  Nevada is still too purple to give up CCM's incumbency advantage and trigger an unnecessary special election.

Cmon, you didn’t cringe when he hammered him, “Did you really just forget what you just said?”
I mean, it was belittling, and he’s had to be on the defensive, because nobody was feeling that tone AT ALL (and I say this as a fellow progressive Latino, so I’m not coming at it from a racial bias. It was just straight up nasty of him.)

I can’t imagine EW was like, “sign my ticket up for that.” When someone takes a swing, they better land it, and Julian missed hard.

I don't think he did miss.  The attack may not help him in the polls (honestly, would anything?), but it did get Castro's name in the headlines for a bit and it did stoke doubts about Biden's age and competency.  If I were Warren, I'd want a mean sonofabitch like Castro on my team.

[Heebie Jeebie]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1174341888658288645

[GP270watch]

 I like how the Warren campaign is trending but she still needs more outreach with young, Latino, and Black voters. I feel she has policy proposals that could resonate with these communities it's just a matter of getting the message through.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I like how the Warren campaign is trending but she still needs more outreach with young, Latino, and Black voters. I feel she has policy proposals that could resonate with these communities it's just a matter of getting the message through.

Steve Kornacki has commented on this recently:  "I said this earlier, but I think the most significant development in recent polling is that Warren, while still running far behind Biden, now clearly has a pulse with black voters.  She doesn't necessarily need to be their first choice, but if she can establish that she's an acceptable choice, then breakout showings in IA and NH could set her up for major gains with black voters, a formula we've seen before."

[Rookie Yinzer]

I like how the Warren campaign is trending but she still needs more outreach with young, Latino, and Black voters. I feel she has policy proposals that could resonate with these communities it's just a matter of getting the message through.

Steve Kornacki has commented on this recently:  "I said this earlier, but I think the most significant development in recent polling is that Warren, while still running far behind Biden, now clearly has a pulse with black voters.  She doesn't necessarily need to be their first choice, but if she can establish that she's an acceptable choice, then breakout showings in IA and NH could set her up for major gains with black voters, a formula we've seen before."

This. Obama was getting 80-90 percent of the black vote but if he didn’t have young white liberals in his coalition he wouldn’t have won the nomination. Hillary 2016 was running against a fringe candidate and her black margins were lower than Obama’s it was still hefty and she was also blowing him out with Latinos by 30 points.

Warren can win without outright winning the black vote. Young black voters are more hostile to Biden than Hillary. Warren can win Latinos or lose them by single digits and while Bernie tied Hillary with whites I can see Warren winning them by high single digits as she appeals more to suburban white women than Bernie ever could.

More white people than Hillary 2016 + more POC than Bernie 2016= Democratic nomination for Warren.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

so... I will profess that I haven't been watching primary polls incredibly closely, and that goes double for watching cross tabs (has anybody compiled a meta-cross tab table to get aggregated results?)

But the claim that "Warren is the candidate of white people" smells funny to me. For one thing, we have polling data suggesting that Warren is doing just fine among non-white candidates

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1174066194141405185

Even polling that suggests that Warren underperforms with non-whites can be explained in a couple of ways. The most compelling is that Warren outperforms Sanders with older voters and Sanders outperforms Warren with younger voters (seen in the same poll as above). Among voting-age people, the older you are, the more likely you are to be white. An analysis that doesn't account for the confounding of age and race will likely conflate an age-effect with a race-effect.

Another possible mechanism is even evident in the poll above: in polling where one candidate outperforms another in aggregated polling, in a race-related breakdown where there is no significant preference by racial groups, the better performing candidate is likely to outperform the other candidate among racial subgroupings by default. You can see this in polling above where Warren has an aggregated 14-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was ahead of Warren in aggregated polling up until only the last month or so. I would need some more data suggesting that there was a large, appreciable discrepancy within racial groups that deviates from patterns of the whole electorate before drawing any conclusions.

I'd be very happy to accept some serious cross tab analysis or aggregations showing Sanders consistently outperforms Warren with non-white voters when accounting for age but otherwise I can see the claim being misused.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

so... I will profess that I haven't been watching primary polls incredibly closely, and that goes double for watching cross tabs (has anybody compiled a meta-cross tab table to get aggregated results?)

But the claim that "Warren is the candidate of white people" smells funny to me. For one thing, we have polling data suggesting that Warren is doing just fine among non-white candidates

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1174066194141405185

Even polling that suggests that Warren underperforms with non-whites can be explained in a couple of ways. The most compelling is that Warren outperforms Sanders with older voters and Sanders outperforms Warren with younger voters (seen in the same poll as above). Among voting-age people, the older you are, the more likely you are to be white. An analysis that doesn't account for the confounding of age and race will likely conflate an age-effect with a race-effect.

Another possible mechanism is even evident in the poll above: in polling where one candidate outperforms another in aggregated polling, in a race-related breakdown where there is no significant preference by racial groups, the better performing candidate is likely to outperform the other candidate among racial subgroupings by default. You can see this in polling above where Warren has an aggregated 14-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was ahead of Warren in aggregated polling up until only the last month or so. I would need some more data suggesting that there was a large, appreciable discrepancy within racial groups that deviates from patterns of the whole electorate before drawing any conclusions.

I'd be very happy to accept some serious cross tab analysis or aggregations showing Sanders consistently outperforms Warren with non-white voters when accounting for age but otherwise I can see the claim being misused.

Every other poll shows Warren struggling with minorities.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yesterday, Warren was canvassing for votes in NCY. After her 20,000-attendee rally she took about 4,000 selfies; the last person in the selfie line had to wait for about 4 hours to get a photo with their queen.

https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1173752376668409856

Afterwards, she paid a fleeting visit to Stephen Colbert:

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Every other poll shows Warren struggling with minorities.

Did you read... any of my post?

Even if I took your claim at face value (it's debatable) I gave multiple alternative interpretations, including one which explains the exact poll I was citing.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Every other poll shows Warren struggling with minorities.

Did you read... any of my post?

Even if I took your claim at face value (it's debatable) I gave multiple alternative interpretations, including one which explains the exact poll I was citing.

I read it. The polls have been pretty consistent that Warren is struggling with minorities except the one you cited.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Every other poll shows Warren struggling with minorities.

Did you read... any of my post?

Even if I took your claim at face value (it's debatable) I gave multiple alternative interpretations, including one which explains the exact poll I was citing.

I read it. The polls have been pretty consistent that Warren is struggling with minorities except the one you cited.

Okay, very cool. You very, very obviously did not read my post. My post does not claim that the poll I quoted is more representative than other polls. My post does not dispute the existence of other polls with the result that, marginalizing all other factors, Bernie outperforms Warren with non-white voters. My post does not even claim in the absolute that Warren is outperforming Bernie among non-white voters.

I'll try an exercise I use with my students (who are half your age): please address the claims in the second half of my post. Do this by directly quoting (or screenshotting) my original post. Please include the term "age" or the term "aggregate" in your post. If you do not follow any of these instructions I will not take your post and therefore your argument seriously and you will not get any points for this assignment. Due date is tomorrow evening. Thank you.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Every other poll shows Warren struggling with minorities.

Did you read... any of my post?

Even if I took your claim at face value (it's debatable) I gave multiple alternative interpretations, including one which explains the exact poll I was citing.

I read it. The polls have been pretty consistent that Warren is struggling with minorities except the one you cited.

Okay, very cool. You very, very obviously did not read my post. My post does not claim that the poll I quoted is more representative than other polls. My post does not dispute the existence of other polls with the result that, marginalizing all other factors, Bernie outperforms Warren with non-white voters. My post does not even claim in the absolute that Warren is outperforming Bernie among non-white voters.

I'll try an exercise I use with my students (who are half your age): please address the claims in the second half of my post. Do this by directly quoting (or screenshotting) my original post. Please include the term "age" or the term "aggregate" in your post. If you do not follow any of these instructions I will not take your post and therefore your argument seriously and you will not get any points for this assignment. Due date is tomorrow evening. Thank you.

Age can't explain why she is doing so poorly. Blacks have little variation in their percentage of the population by age, and Bernie is killing it with Hispanics by a margin that would override any age adjustment. You're lucky that only powerless people like me are bringing this up, and not the whole establishment political machine like they did against Bernie. If Warren was any good, these scumbags would be going nuclear on her.

[Virginiá]

Every other poll shows Warren struggling with minorities.

Did you read... any of my post?

In all fairness, this is jfern you're talking about. It's like speaking to a wall sometimes. I once asked him why he could never seem to acknowledge the shortcomings of his preferred candidate(s) and he basically said that he wasn't here to be a concern troll, which I found to be very illuminating.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Every other poll shows Warren struggling with minorities.

Did you read... any of my post?

In all fairness, this is jfern you're talking about. It's like speaking to a wall sometimes. I once asked him why he could never seem to acknowledge the shortcomings of his preferred candidate(s) and he basically said that he wasn't here to be a concern troll, which I found to be very illuminating.

Quit trolling. I've plenty of times criticized Bernie for voting for Iron Dome, SESTA, and so on.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Age can't explain why she is doing so poorly.

Why not?

Blacks have little variation in their percentage of the population by age,

Absolutely false. There are multiple pretty obvious examples of how this is not true, the 2016 D primaries being one of the best examples. You're lying through your teeth.



(source:  Huge Split Between Older and Younger Blacks in the Democratic Primary
Perry Bacon Jr., NBC News, May 28, 2016)

and Bernie is killing it with Hispanics by a margin that would override any age adjustment.

Erm... source? This claim is especially dubious as the Hispanic population is so young-skewed and adults are such lower-propensity voters that any age adjustment needs to be massive.

An early look at the 2020 electorate
Anthony Cillufo and Richard Fry, Pew Research Center, January 30, 2019

These post-Millennials are on track to be more racially and ethnically diverse than their predecessors: In 2020, Gen Z eligible voters are expected to be 55% white and 45% nonwhite, including 21% Hispanic, 14% black, and 4% Asian or Pacific Islander. By comparison, the Boomer and older electorate is projected to be about three-quarters white (74%).

Key facts about the Latino vote in 2016
Jens Krogstad, Pew Research Center, October 14, 2016

Hillary Clinton has more enthusiastic support from older Latinos than from Millennial Latinos. Two-thirds (64%) of Millennial Latinos (ages 18 to 35) who back Clinton say their support is more a vote against Donald Trump than for Clinton. The reverse is true among older, non-Millennial Latino voters (ages 36 and older): 65% say their support of Clinton is more a vote for her than against Trump. Overall, more than half (55%) of Latino registered voters who back Clinton say their vote is more a vote for Clinton than against Trump.

Overall I give you a D. Show more of your work next time.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Age can't explain why she is doing so poorly.

Why not?

Blacks have little variation in their percentage of the population by age,

Absolutely false. There are multiple pretty obvious examples of how this is not true, the 2016 D primaries being one of the best examples. You're lying through your teeth.



(source:  Huge Split Between Older and Younger Blacks in the Democratic Primary
Perry Bacon Jr., NBC News, May 28, 2016)

and Bernie is killing it with Hispanics by a margin that would override any age adjustment.

Erm... source? This claim is especially dubious as the Hispanic population is so young-skewed and adults are such lower-propensity voters that any age adjustment needs to be massive.

An early look at the 2020 electorate
Anthony Cillufo and Richard Fry, Pew Research Center, January 30, 2019

These post-Millennials are on track to be more racially and ethnically diverse than their predecessors: In 2020, Gen Z eligible voters are expected to be 55% white and 45% nonwhite, including 21% Hispanic, 14% black, and 4% Asian or Pacific Islander. By comparison, the Boomer and older electorate is projected to be about three-quarters white (74%).

Overall I give you a D. Show more of your work next time.

Thanks for accusing me of lying. Such a good look for you Warren supporters. Of course younger blacks vote more for Bernie than older blacks. No sh**t. But their percentage of the electorate should be roughly the same. I said blacks, not nonwhite.