Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

We’ll have to wait and see what is being proposed ... word is that a coalition deal could be presented on Sunday or Monday as a Christmas „present“ to voters.

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna „state“ (or city) election poll by OGM for W24 radio.

35% SPÖ (-5% compared with the 2015 state election)
20% Greens (+8%)
20% ÖVP (+11%)
14% FPÖ (-17%)
  8% NEOS (+2%)
  3% Others (+1%)

52% say Vienna is moving in the right direction, 43% in the wrong direction.

https://www.heute.at/s/42-prozent-wollen-ludwig-als-burgermeister-53110574

Vienna will vote at some point next year.

[Tender Branson]

20+ years of polling in Austria (national elections):

[Tender Branson]

According to the „Kurier“, the ÖVP-Green coalition deal is imminent - because aides for the technocratic Bierlein interim government have been told to pack their bags and leave during the next week or so:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/tuerkis-gruen-einigung-doch-vor-weihnachten/400709784

[Tender Branson]

Here’s how many days it took after previous federal elections to create and swear in the new government:

[Tender Branson]

Some news about the Bundesrat - the 2nd chamber of parliament, which is representing the states:

After the Vorarlberg and Styria state elections, the Greens now have 4/61 members again in the Bundesrat - which means they got their faction/group status back this week.

They can now take part in every committee again.

If ÖVP-Greens is the new government in Austria soon, they will not have a majority there (27/61 seats). But this could change after the Vienna election next year.

Based on current polling, ÖVP+Greens would not get the necessary additional 4 seats for 31/61, but there could be scenarios in which they could.

Vienna has 11 seats in the Bundesrat and usually awards those seats to parties getting more than 10% in the state election. If NEOS doesn't pass 10% and the FPÖ splits in half, with both the FPÖ and DAÖ (= Strache) ending up below 10% - then ÖVP and Greens could end up with 3 seats each and the SPÖ with 5. Obviously, the ÖVP and Greens would both have to get results above 20% - which seems doable.

[Tender Branson]

Parties on the ballot for the 26 January Burgenland state election:

* SPÖ (2015: 42%)
* ÖVP (29%)
* FPÖ (15%)
* Greens (6%)
* LBL (5%)
* NEOS (2%)

The threshold in Burgenland is 4%, so all parties except NEOS were already qualified. NEOS had to collect a couple hundred signatures.

Link

[Tender Branson]

End-year state election polls by GMK for Salzburg + Tyrol show the ÖVP and Greens up by a lot and NEOS slightly, while SPÖ and FPÖ are down by a lot.

These polls are a mirror image to national polling.

Salzburg poll:

45% ÖVP (+7)
16% Greens (+7)
15% FPÖ (-8, 2018: FPÖ+FPS)
13% SPÖ (-7)
  8% NEOS (+1)
  3% Others

Salzburg has a ÖVP+Greens+NEOS government.



Tyrol poll:

47% ÖVP (+3)
19% Grüne (+8)
11% FPÖ (-5)
10% SPÖ (-7)
  7% NEOS (+2)
  4% FRITZ (-2)
  2% Others

Tyrol has a ÖVP+Green government.



While the SPÖ was always doing badly in Tyrol, the new poll results in Salzburg are a fu**ing disaster for the party. They used to be at 45% in 2004.

[Tender Branson]

The coalition talks between ÖVP+Greens are taking a break, but will continue over the weekend.

Kurz said on Monday that a conclusion is very likely early next week and while the Greens want „an extremely detailed coalition contract with every little piece being written down“, he also likes his future coalition partners in person and their „work ethic“.

I like the fact that the Greens are really detail-oriented and want a very precise coalition contract with the ÖVP. This way, the sneaky Kurz cannot govern as he wants and has to stick to the things that were agreed on.

Reminds me of the Treaty of Armens between the Sheliak and the Federation.

https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Sheliak

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard":



https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000112674560/starke-umfragewerte-fuer-oevp-und-gruene-schlechte-fuer-fpoe-und

[Tender Branson]

After the Christmas break, the negotiation teams of ÖVP and Greens met again today, after which Sebastian Kurz told reporters:

„We have come to the conclusion that a government between ÖVP-Greens will be possible.“

https://www.diepresse.com/5744190/kurz-eine-regierung-mit-den-grunen-wird-moglich-sein

[Tender Branson]

It is very likely that Sebastian Kurz and Werner Kogler will announce the successful conclusion of coalition talks this weekend, the first ConservaGreen government in Europe on the national level:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kurz-und-kogler-bestaetigen-tuerkis-gruen-kurz-vor-abschluss/400713399

After the announcement, the coalition contract will have to be agreed on by both party committees.

The procedure is very easy in the ÖVP, where basically only Kurz has to agree to it.

For the Greens, it’s more complex: they have to send invitations to around 400 delegates all over the country for a federal congress. This could be organized within a week. If they approve it next weekend, the government could be sworn in by President VdB after the Three Kings Holiday on Jan. 7th.

[Tender Branson]

New Upper Austria state election poll (Gallup for the ÖVP there):

41% ÖVP (+4.6 since 2015)
20% FPÖ (-10.4)
18% SPÖ (-0.4)
15% Greens (+4.7)
  5% NEOS (+1.5)
  1% Others

https://www.nachrichten.at/politik/landespolitik/modern-innovativ-oberoesterreicher-sehen-ihr-land-positiv;art383,3205369

[Tender Branson]

Greens-leader Werner Kogler will send the invitation E-mails to the 400 or so Green delegates tonight !

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kogler-bereit-fuer-bundeskongress-fahrplan-zur-angelobung-steht/400713819

This means a coalition contract between ÖVP and Greens has been agreed on and will be presented to the public on January 2.

The Green Party committee and party base votes will take place Jan. 4th and 5th.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP will get 9 cabinet posts, the Greens 5.

https://www.sn.at/politik/innenpolitik/die-regierung-steht-die-ressortaufteilung-ist-fix-81233023

This is impressive for the Greens, considering the ÖVP got 37.5% and the Greens 14%.

The Green ministries are:

# a newly created/merged mega-ministry for Infrastructure, Environment and Energy
# the Social/Health ministry
# the Justice ministry
# the Arts & Culture ministry
# the Vice-Chancellor, which includes Sports and Civil Servants

The ÖVP will keep most of the important ones though:

# Chancellor
# Chancellery office
# Interior
# Finance
# Defense
# Foreign Affairs
# Education
# Economy, Research & Development
# Agriculture

[Tender Branson]

Pending the official presentation, the new ÖVP-Green government will probably have 14 major cabinet posts (and likely an additional 2 state secretaries).

Kurz has said he wants a 50% share of women in his new government (actually it was President Van der Bellen who pushed it in public and Kurz probably doesn't want to look stupid by creating another male-dominated government like under ÖVP-FPÖ).

The following names are mentioned as female cabinet members:

ÖVP

* Elisabeth Köstinger (Agriculture Minister under ÖVP-FPÖ, could do it again)
* Margarethe Schramböck (Economy+R&D Minister under ÖVP-FPÖ)
* Karoline Edtstadler (state secretary for the Interior under ÖVP-FPÖ, could either become Chancellery Minister, Interior or Foreign Minister)
* Defense: Kurz looking for an "unnamed Ursula Von der Leyen style woman" who would become the first female Defense Minister

Greens

* Leonore Gewessler (almost certain to become the new Minister for Environment, Climate Change, Transport and Infrastructure - a former environmentalist NGO leader)
* Alma Zadic (Justice Minister), could become the first cabinet member from ex-Yugoslavia
* Eva Blimlinger (from the arch-Left in the Green Party, former Dean of the Academy of Fine Arts Vienna, Historian - could become Arts and Culture Minister)
* Another option for this post would be Sigrid Maurer, but she's even more controversial than Blimlinger and will likely not become Minister.

[Tender Branson]

Claudia Tanner (ÖVP-Lower Austria) most likely to become Defense Minister in the new government, several newspapers are reporting:



https://www.krone.at/2069527

[Tender Branson]

Interesting:

The "Standard" reports that ÖVP-Green created a new Ministry during their coalition talks, the Integration Ministry.

Immigration/Integration policies were previously part of the Foreign Affairs Ministry.

According to the "Standard", the new Integration Ministry will be headed by 34-year old Susanne Raab (ÖVP), a close associate of Sebastian Kurz from the Young ÖVP, who already worked in the integration department of the Foreign Ministry:



Source: Armin Muratovic/BMEIA (Foreign Ministry)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000112760302/wie-sich-tuerkis-und-gruen-die-regierung-aufteilen-wollen

[Tender Branson]

IMO, Kurz picking Raab to head the newly-created integration ministry is a very clever thing.

It's a signal to the public that Kurz wants to put this difficult matter into the hands of a young, female expert - a big cut with the controversial Kickl (FPÖ) who used to dominate this topic in the past 2 years.

It also shows to the public that the ÖVP is a modern party, willing to put young women into leadership positions.

[Tender Branson]

With the picks of Tanner and Raab, I'm now counting 15 major cabinet posts under ÖVP-Green and 8 of them headed by women.

But we'll have to wait until Thursday/Friday when Kurz and Kogler are presenting their new government to the public to see if there are really 50% (or more) women in the cabinet.

[Tender Branson]

The 2 new (female) Ministers for Defense and for Integration are not even sworn in yet, but FPÖs Hofer and Kickl are already attacking them:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/integrationsministerin-noch-nicht-angelobt-aber-kickl-wettert-schon/400714620

Hofer says that a „Defense Minister should have at least served in the Military or in the Draft“ and calls her „not really qualified for the job“. (This is not completely wrong, because the ÖVP often awards ministerial posts according to their internal party structure, Claudia Tanner comes from the ÖVPs farmer wing, which is not something that has a lot to do with Defense).

Kickl attacked Susanne Raab today, saying that there doesn’t even need to be a Ministry of Integration, because it is a duty of immigrants to integrate on their own and no state aid should be needed and that the ÖVP used to „block his ideas on immigration“ when he was still in office. He also said Austria needs „repatriation centers“ for immigrants and not an integration ministry.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The 2 new (female) Ministers for Defense and for Integration are not even sworn in yet, but FPÖs Hofer and Kickl are already attacking them:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/integrationsministerin-noch-nicht-angelobt-aber-kickl-wettert-schon/400714620

Hofer says that a „Defense Minister should have at least served in the Military or in the Draft“ and calls her „not really qualified for the job“. (This is not completely wrong, because the ÖVP often awards ministerial posts according to their internal party structure, Claudia Tanner comes from the ÖVPs farmer wing, which is not something that has a lot to do with Defense).

Kickl attacked Susanne Raab today, saying that there doesn’t even need to be a Ministry of Integration, because it is a duty of immigrants to integrate on their own and no state aid should be needed and that the ÖVP used to „block his ideas on immigration“ when he was still in office. He also said Austria needs „repatriation centers“ for immigrants and not an integration ministry.

Lol good to see the FPO continuing to show their ugly colours. Also it's ridiculous to assert that the Austrian Defesne Minister needs to be a veteran- it's not like you're facing a constant existential threat. Without such threates that require experienced Ministers, it's better to have a civi Minister who can be more critical of the military.

[Tender Branson]

The 2 new (female) Ministers for Defense and for Integration are not even sworn in yet, but FPÖs Hofer and Kickl are already attacking them:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/integrationsministerin-noch-nicht-angelobt-aber-kickl-wettert-schon/400714620

Hofer says that a „Defense Minister should have at least served in the Military or in the Draft“ and calls her „not really qualified for the job“. (This is not completely wrong, because the ÖVP often awards ministerial posts according to their internal party structure, Claudia Tanner comes from the ÖVPs farmer wing, which is not something that has a lot to do with Defense).

Kickl attacked Susanne Raab today, saying that there doesn’t even need to be a Ministry of Integration, because it is a duty of immigrants to integrate on their own and no state aid should be needed and that the ÖVP used to „block his ideas on immigration“ when he was still in office. He also said Austria needs „repatriation centers“ for immigrants and not an integration ministry.

Lol good to see the FPO continuing to show their ugly colours. Also it's ridiculous to assert that the Austrian Defesne Minister needs to be a veteran- it's not like you're facing a constant existential threat. Without such threates that require experienced Ministers, it's better to have a civi Minister who can be more critical of the military.

Maybe an outsider is sometimes better, yeah, but with the ÖVP you sometimes get the impression that qualification doesn’t really matter for a certain cabinet job ...

For example Kurz‘s big buddy from earlier Vienna days, Gernot Blümel, will likely become the new Finance Minister.

The guy has a BA in philosophy !

What qualifies him for Finance ?

Ultimately, it will come down to how they manage their department - but a certain kind of experience is always needed.

Otherwise voters get the impression that you just have to „work“ your way up the party high enough to get a proper high-paid job without any real qualifications.

[Tender Branson]

Besides Tanner and Raab, another 2 women were officially confirmed by ÖVP and Greens today as cabinet members:

Karoline Edtstadler (ÖVP) - Minister for the Chancellery, Europe and Media


Source: Edtstadler Facebook page

Basically Kurz‘s deputy in the Chancellor office. Edtstadler (a former judge) is currently a Member of the European Parliament and was previously State Secretary in the Interior Ministry as a so-called „ÖVP watchdog“ for Herbert Kickl (FPÖ).

Leonore Gewessler (Greens) - Super Minister for Environment, Transport & Infrastructure


Source: Green Party website

Has established herself as a major player of the „new“ Green Party during the coalition talks and deputy of Green Party leader Werner Kogler. She’s a former leader of a major environmental NGO called Global 2000 and will lead one of the most important ministries in the next decades, especially if some kind of CO2 tax will be introduced.

[Tender Branson]

The „Krone“ reports that Kurz is still looking for a younger woman from Styria for either a Ministry or State Secretary post until Thursday when the new government is presented.

That’s because Styria, as a large state and with a big ÖVP victory recently, is currently not represented by a ÖVP candidate mentioned by the media.

If Kurz picks another woman, the new government would probably even be majority female.

And not only that: it would also be the youngest cabinet ever, with most in their 30s or 40s.