Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Omega21]

Hilarious:

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2040226-Wiener-FPOe-fuerchtet-sich-vor-moeglicher-Strache-Finte.html?em_no_split=1

The FPÖ wants to get rid of Strache now for good, removing his „suspended“ party membership and expel him.

But that’s not so easy ...

While Hofer, Kickl and 6 of the 9 state FPÖ-leaders are calling for Strache’s total removal from the party, it is ultimately the state party of a member that is responsible for revoking the party membership. In Strache’s case Vienna.

And they are pretty split.

Today a little-known fact went public: Strache was frontrunner in the 2015 Vienna state election when the FPÖ scored a record result of 31%. He was also frontrunner in Vienna-South, but didn’t take his seat in the Vienna city parliament of course (even though he was elected), but remained Austrian FPÖ leader instead.

Which now means that if a single pro-Strache MP of the Vienna city parliament would resign, Strache would become a city MP.

And not only that: as a city MP, he could form a new group there with rogue Strache backers, get public funding and run for the Vienna election next year.

Maybe that’s why the Vienna FPÖ doesn’t really want to kick him out for good - even though there is pressure from Hofer, Kickl & Co. ...

But can't he just convince one rouge MP to resign and become a city MP anyway, and leave the party himself?

[Tender Branson]

Hilarious:

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2040226-Wiener-FPOe-fuerchtet-sich-vor-moeglicher-Strache-Finte.html?em_no_split=1

The FPÖ wants to get rid of Strache now for good, removing his „suspended“ party membership and expel him.

But that’s not so easy ...

While Hofer, Kickl and 6 of the 9 state FPÖ-leaders are calling for Strache’s total removal from the party, it is ultimately the state party of a member that is responsible for revoking the party membership. In Strache’s case Vienna.

And they are pretty split.

Today a little-known fact went public: Strache was frontrunner in the 2015 Vienna state election when the FPÖ scored a record result of 31%. He was also frontrunner in Vienna-South, but didn’t take his seat in the Vienna city parliament of course (even though he was elected), but remained Austrian FPÖ leader instead.

Which now means that if a single pro-Strache MP of the Vienna city parliament would resign, Strache would become a city MP.

And not only that: as a city MP, he could form a new group there with rogue Strache backers, get public funding and run for the Vienna election next year.

Maybe that’s why the Vienna FPÖ doesn’t really want to kick him out for good - even though there is pressure from Hofer, Kickl & Co. ...

But can't he just convince one rouge MP to resign and become a city MP anyway, and leave the party himself?

I guess he could.

Anyway: Rendi-Wagner said today she will not resign as SPÖ-leader.

Expect the Greens to overtake the SPÖ soon, which would be a major disgrace for the Reds.

[Tender Branson]

Still very little is known about the ongoing ÖVP-Green coalition talks, except that the 33 sub-groups and 150 people involved met several times during the past 2 weeks.

The results of those meetings will be discussed by the oversight group of 6 ÖVP- and 6 Green members this weekend and a press conference with Kurz and Kogler will happen on Monday.

The news reports say that while the climate in the talks is great, the two parties are still "miles apart" on several important topics ...

https://www.vienna.at/tuerkis-gruene-verhandlungen-chefverhandler-sichten-am-wochenende-inhaltliche-ergebnisse/6441669

[Omega21]

Still very little is known about the ongoing ÖVP-Green coalition talks, except that the 33 sub-groups and 150 people involved met several times during the past 2 weeks.

The results of those meetings will be discussed by the oversight group of 6 ÖVP- and 6 Green members this weekend and a press conference with Kurz and Kogler will happen on Monday.

The news reports say that while the climate in the talks is great, the two parties are still "miles apart" on several important topics ...

https://www.vienna.at/tuerkis-gruene-verhandlungen-chefverhandler-sichten-am-wochenende-inhaltliche-ergebnisse/6441669

I imagine open borders for everyone, more money and citizenship for Asylum Seekers is one of the issues...

[Tender Branson]

Still very little is known about the ongoing ÖVP-Green coalition talks, except that the 33 sub-groups and 150 people involved met several times during the past 2 weeks.

The results of those meetings will be discussed by the oversight group of 6 ÖVP- and 6 Green members this weekend and a press conference with Kurz and Kogler will happen on Monday.

The news reports say that while the climate in the talks is great, the two parties are still "miles apart" on several important topics ...

https://www.vienna.at/tuerkis-gruene-verhandlungen-chefverhandler-sichten-am-wochenende-inhaltliche-ergebnisse/6441669

I imagine open borders for everyone, more money and citizenship for Asylum Seekers is one of the issues...

It’s not only immigration and integration, even though the Greens are now much more pragmatic and far less naive than they were 3-4 years ago.

I would even say the Greens are willing to take a somewhat restrictive approach on immigration if they really want this government to happen.

The other major differences are listed here (such as the Greens wanting higher taxes on the wealthy, the ÖVP of course not - or the Greens wanting lower work hours, while the ÖVP just expanded the max. daily work hours to 12 and so forth ...)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000109928711/stolpersteine-fuer-tuerkis-gruen-woran-eine-koalition-scheitern-koennte

[Oryxslayer]

It seems like Austria is headed for more of a "give and take style coalition deal," rather than a compromise dead. Give and Take deals see one front agree to the others proposal in exchange for the other front to agree to their proposal. Compromise deals meet in the middle between each faction, rather than trading issues between each other.

[Tender Branson]

It seems like Austria is headed for more of a "give and take style coalition deal," rather than a compromise dead. Give and Take deals see one front agree to the others proposal in exchange for the other front to agree to their proposal. Compromise deals meet in the middle between each faction, rather than trading issues between each other.

It's going to be a mix of both compromises and horse-trading on some topics. Remember that a coalition contract involves hundreds of topics and pages.

Also:

One week after the Styria state election, the ÖVP has decided to start coalition talks with the SPÖ (which is also the current government):

https://oe3.orf.at/stories/2995148/

[crals]

Maintaining a tough line on migration and crime in exchange for green policies is fair. Hope the Greens will agree to that.

[Sozialliberal]

One week after the Styria state election, the ÖVP has decided to start coalition talks with the SPÖ (which is also the current government):

https://oe3.orf.at/stories/2995148/

An ÖVP/Greens/NEOS government would be better for the political culture than the perpetual grand coalition.

[Tender Branson]

One week after the Styria state election, the ÖVP has decided to start coalition talks with the SPÖ (which is also the current government):

https://oe3.orf.at/stories/2995148/

An ÖVP/Greens/NEOS government would be better for the political culture than the perpetual grand coalition.

This would mean too much change for the ÖVP. Remember that NEOS has entered state parliament for the first time on Sunday. The ÖVP is not entering a coalition with untested, inexperienced newbies.

That’s why they pick the SPÖ, who are in no position to make big demands right now.

[Sozialliberal]

One week after the Styria state election, the ÖVP has decided to start coalition talks with the SPÖ (which is also the current government):

https://oe3.orf.at/stories/2995148/

An ÖVP/Greens/NEOS government would be better for the political culture than the perpetual grand coalition.

This would mean too much change for the ÖVP. Remember that NEOS has entered state parliament for the first time on Sunday. The ÖVP is not entering a coalition with untested, inexperienced newbies.

That’s why they pick the SPÖ, who are in no position to make big demands right now.

Yeah, that's understandable. However, when NEOS entered the Salzburg state parliament for the first time in 2018, they went into government straight away. Why is the situation in Styria different?

[Tender Branson]

One week after the Styria state election, the ÖVP has decided to start coalition talks with the SPÖ (which is also the current government):

https://oe3.orf.at/stories/2995148/

An ÖVP/Greens/NEOS government would be better for the political culture than the perpetual grand coalition.

This would mean too much change for the ÖVP. Remember that NEOS has entered state parliament for the first time on Sunday. The ÖVP is not entering a coalition with untested, inexperienced newbies.

That’s why they pick the SPÖ, who are in no position to make big demands right now.

Yeah, that's understandable. However, when NEOS entered the Salzburg state parliament for the first time in 2018, they went into government straight away. Why is the situation in Styria different?

It is indeed different: ÖVP and SPÖ had a long, more-or-less successful „reform“ partnership in Styria, merging communities, improving healthcare and reducing the debt - whilst making the state a hub for tech companies.

The young NEOS candidate Nico Swatek on the other hand constantly attacked the ÖVP in order to gain votes, calling them corrupt.

In Salzburg, the NEOS candidate Schellhorn is a good friend of the Governor (ÖVP) and it was logical that they would govern, after the FPÖs young candidate Marlene Svazek constantly attacked Gov. Haslauer during the campaign, just as the NEOS guy did in Styria (ÖVP-SPÖ here in Salzburg would not have worked because of the fallout from the investment scandal).

[Tender Branson]

Still very little is known about the ongoing ÖVP-Green coalition talks, except that the 33 sub-groups and 150 people involved met several times during the past 2 weeks.

The results of those meetings will be discussed by the oversight group of 6 ÖVP- and 6 Green members this weekend and a press conference with Kurz and Kogler will happen on Monday.

The news reports say that while the climate in the talks is great, the two parties are still "miles apart" on several important topics ...

https://www.vienna.at/tuerkis-gruene-verhandlungen-chefverhandler-sichten-am-wochenende-inhaltliche-ergebnisse/6441669

Fellner and his Ö24 report that the government deal could be ready in 2 weeks:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wolfgangfellner/Erster-Blick-auf-neue-Regierung/407913472

And apparently the Greens will get 5/12 cabinet posts.

Take it with a lot of salt ...

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-Green coalition „update“:

Exactly zero new facts.

Kurz said today that the talks are more difficult than the ones with the FPÖ two years ago, while Kogler said many big rocks have to be removed from the road ahead ...

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000111781115/kurz-bezeichnet-koalitionsgespraeche-schwieriger-als-mit-der-fpoe

In other news, Strache will almost certainly create his own party early next year for the Vienna state election and could get as much as 5-10% there and would get 4% Austria-wide right now ...

[Tender Branson]

Still very little is known about the ongoing ÖVP-Green coalition talks, except that the 33 sub-groups and 150 people involved met several times during the past 2 weeks.

The results of those meetings will be discussed by the oversight group of 6 ÖVP- and 6 Green members this weekend and a press conference with Kurz and Kogler will happen on Monday.

The news reports say that while the climate in the talks is great, the two parties are still "miles apart" on several important topics ...

https://www.vienna.at/tuerkis-gruene-verhandlungen-chefverhandler-sichten-am-wochenende-inhaltliche-ergebnisse/6441669

Fellner and his Ö24 report that the government deal could be ready in 2 weeks:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wolfgangfellner/Erster-Blick-auf-neue-Regierung/407913472

And apparently the Greens will get 5/12 cabinet posts.

Take it with a lot of salt ...

Another tabloid paper - „Heute“ - says that the government is virtually agreed on and could be presented this weekend already:

https://www.heute.at/s/turkis-grun-steht-blumel-wird-finanzminister-51471148

In this salty version, Blümel (a key associate of Kurz and former Chancellery Minister for the media, arts and the EU) would become Finance Minister.

The dude has studied philosophy (!) and would now be responsible for a 75 Bio. € budget each year - without any financial qualifications. But ... it seems everything is possible in Austria.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP-Green coalition talks are making some progress after all, because the "Standard" reports an agreement on the important broader cluster of "social/welfare topics".

There has been a compromise so that ÖVP-FPÖ's reformed welfare law (especially for foreigners) will largely remain untouched, with lower benefits for newcomers and large families so that there's a strong work incentive, but the Greens were able to get additional funding for German-lessons (which ÖVP/FPÖ cut) so that newly arrived foreigners will get benefits earlier if they pass German lessons. Also, there will be an investment package against child poverty. On the other hand, welfare cheaters will face more restrictive sanctions if they fail to take jobs that are awarded to them by the labour agency.

Bottom line: ÖVP retains their hardline policy from ÖVP-FPÖ, but the Greens didn't lose face.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000111842728/oevp-und-gruene-wollen-in-deutschkurse-investieren

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ crashing and burning (new Ö24 poll):



https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-SPOe-und-Gruene-fast-gleichauf/408465078

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna poll from Ö24 (state election will be held next year):



A new Strache party would start at 4% (threshold: 5%), but the consensus is that he’d gain after announcing his party and split the FPÖ in half ...

Compared with 2015, the SPÖ would lose 7%, the ÖVP would gain 11%, the FPÖ would lose 17%, the Greens would gain 5%, NEOS 4% and Strache of course also 4%.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wien/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-Polit-Beben-bei-Wien-Wahl-2020/408472279

[Tender Branson]

Updated the OP with the Burgenland state election on January 26.

Burgenland is one of 3 states where the SPÖ is in charge and where they have a popular Governor (a former police officer and Austrian Defense Minister - even though he currently has no voice due to several vocal chord surgeries).

Burgenland is not really that important, because it is the smallest state - but considering the SPÖ is in charge and is doing horrible right now at the national level, it is important this time.

It's also important because currently there's a SPÖ-FPÖ government in the state and it could continue according to the SPÖ and FPÖ people there. But will it really continue if both parties suffer at the polls ?

More about it later.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ - Strache divorce continues ...

The Vienna-FPÖ's own appeals court (yes, they have one) has invited Strache to testify in front of them so he can plead for continued membership in the party.

Strache has said he will not show up (this would be as humiliating as Trump testifying in front of Congress in his impeachment trial).

Meanwhile Strache is going forward with his plans to create a new party for the Vienna elections next year.

Key FPÖ-people are warning him that this is a "rampage" or a future "Bündnis Zukunft Ibiza" (BZI) - similar to Haider's BZÖ. They said: "We all know how that turned out and where the BZÖ ended up."

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Reine-Show-Strache-pfeift-auf-Schiedsgericht/408541134

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, the SPÖ has an internal poll showing them ahead by double-digits in Burgenland.

Every 5th Kurz-voter and every 4th FPÖ-voter from the federal election will vote SPÖ in the state election ...

https://www.krone.at/2057565

This makes some sense of course, because the chaotic federal SPÖ and the Burgenland SPÖ are two pair of shoes.

[Tender Branson]

After all the positive news from the ÖVP-Green coalition talks, now the negative ones ...

https://www.krone.at/2058162

https://orf.at/stories/3146724/

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Koalitions-Poker-wird-zache-Partie/408710007

https://apps.derstandard.at/privacywall/story/2000111961571/gruene-verstimmung-ueber-tuerkisen-spin

Talks are „tough“, „frustrating“, „ÖVP demands too much“, „Greens are hitting the brakes“, „lots of important, big issues unsolved“, „could take until next year“, etc.

[Tender Branson]

The Burgenland/Doskozil-SPÖ is out with their first poster campaign for the state election:

"A healthy state. That's what we do."

"More time for (old age) care. That's what we do."

"Good wages for good work. That's what we do."

"Security. That's what we do."

Picture source: Burgenland-SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

If the ÖVP-Green government wants to be sworn in before the Christmas/New Year holidays, there has to be an agreement until Sunday ...

[Tender Branson]

Strache’s political comeback and his own party could be imminent:

https://www.vienna.at/fpoe-mandat-von-karl-baron-koennte-an-hc-strache-gehen/6455010

Karl Baron, a Strache-loyalist and member of the Vienna city parliament, could step down tomorrow (a press statement is scheduled) and Strache would replace him, based on the 2015 state election list.

If Strache returns to the Vienna city parliament and 2 other FPÖ MPs join him, he could create his own group with public funding ...