Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Omega21]

The Styria state election on Sunday will be the first big test of the ÖVP-Green government, even though it is not even in charge yet.

But still:

With the prospect of the Greens in government, how will Kurzˋs loan voters from the FPÖ react now that he’s gone full green ?

Ca. 10% of the ÖVPs current 38% are quite „blue“ and only voted for Kurz because they were promised a continued hard line policy on immigration ...

"Kurz goes full green" sounds like a bad 18+ movie, especially considering his Last Name lol

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ falls to the lowest level in more than 10 years:



https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Absturz-fuer-FPOe/406817371

Turns out that the FPÖ hoarded gold bars worth 600.000€ in a safe at a restaurant in East Tyrol:

Austrian Nationalists Stashed Gold Away in Alpine Vault

(Bloomberg) -- Austrian prosecutors investigating former politicians of the nationalist Freedom Party found gold bars stashed away in vaults in a small Alpine guesthouse. The party says it bought the gold in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

Prosecutors and police raided the Tyrolean guesthouse “Enzian” (German for the blue Alpine flower gentian) in August, investigating corruption suspicions against former vice chancellor and Freedom party chairman Heinz-Christian Strache, Profil magazine reports citing prosecutors’ filings.

“I guess it would have been better to invest in a savings account with a tumbling bank, in falling shares or Greek bonds,” Freedom Party secretary general Christian Hafenecker said sarcastically in a tweet responding to Profil’s revelations. The party’s Vienna group decided to buy the gold in 2008 with its “financial reserves,” he said.


Source: Wikipedia

When they found the vaults, the guesthouse operator told investigators he didn’t have the codes to open them and asked them to wait until party officials arrived from Vienna, a six hours’ drive from the remote village. When they arrived and opened the vaults, they were found to contain three metal strongboxes sealed by a - now deceased - notary.

The officials offered prosecutors to present them a redacted version of the notary’s deed describing the contents rather than opening the strongboxes. According to that deed, they contain 500-gram (about 16 troy ounces) gold bars, each worth around $24,000 at current prices, according to the report.

https://news.yahoo.com/austrian-nationalists-stashed-gold-away-100134893.html

Now they have to explain this to their "small guy" voters, on top of their Ibiza and Casino scandals.

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2039163-Wiener-FPOe-hortete-Goldbarren-in-Osttirol.html

[Tender Branson]

Arnold Schwarzenegger has endorsed the ÖVP-Styria ahead of the state election on Sunday:

Schwarzenegger is originally from the town of Thal near Graz (the capital).

[Tender Branson]

Far more postal ballots have been requested for the election on Sunday (102.846) compared with the 2015 state election (65.696).

That means 11% of all voters have requested one vs. 7% last time.

https://steiermark.orf.at/stories/3022918

[Tender Branson]

The Styria state election on Sunday will be the first big test of the ÖVP-Green government, even though it is not even in charge yet.

But still:

With the prospect of the Greens in government, how will Kurzˋs loan voters from the FPÖ react now that he’s gone full green ?

Ca. 10% of the ÖVPs current 38% are quite „blue“ and only voted for Kurz because they were promised a continued hard line policy on immigration ...

"Kurz goes full green" sounds like a bad 18+ movie, especially considering his Last Name lol

I always forget that Kurz means „dick“ in several Balkan languages ...

[Tender Branson]

Here's how Styria voted in 2015:



And here's how Styria voted in the 2019 federal election:



Source: Wikipedia

[Tender Branson]

Strache is back in the public arena !



So, Austria has a total public smoking ban for about a month now (a reversal from ÖVP-FPÖ policy, which killed the previous ban and allowed smoking again).

Many restaurant and pub owners now complain about a falling number of customers because of the smoking ban (all shisha pubs for example face extinction now).

There was a protest in Vienna today, where Strache showed up and held a speech complaining that "freedom is under attack" and that he's an "affected citizen" (Strache is a heavy smoker).

According to the ORF report, Strache was received by the crowd with applause.

https://orf.at/#/stories/3145256

[Tender Branson]

The national ÖVP-Green coalition talks are in full swing with more than 30 meetings this past week involving all the sub-groups.

The atmosphere is described as "excellent" and next weekend, Kurz and Kogler may hold another press conference to update the media and public about the progress made by the different sub-group negoation teams.

Werner Kogler has said he also expects a significantly strengthened Green movement in the important Styria state election tomorrow, which could potentially allow them to govern with the ÖVP there as well. The ÖVP-governor in that state is so far not really amused with the Greens though and is leaning more towards ÖVP-SPÖ or ÖVP-FPÖ.

https://www.nachrichten.at/politik/innenpolitik/tuerkise-und-gruene-verhandeln-auch-am-wochenende;art385,3190663

[Walmart_shopper]

Strache is back in the public arena !



So, Austria has a total public smoking ban for about a month now (a reversal from ÖVP-FPÖ policy, which killed the previous ban and allowed smoking again).

Many restaurant and pub owners now complain about a falling number of customers because of the smoking ban (all shisha pubs for example face extinction now).

There was a protest in Vienna today, where Strache showed up and held a speech complaining that "freedom is under attack" and that he's an "affected citizen" (Strache is a heavy smoker).

According to the ORF report, Strache was received by the crowd with applause.

https://orf.at/#/stories/3145256

The new Strache-shisha smoker coalition is one of the unliklier of Austrian politics, to be sure.

[Tender Branson]

Polls for the Styria (= Steiermark) state elections are open.

They will close at 4pm and we should get an ORF projection then.

Ca. 1 million people are eligible to vote today (1/6 Austrian voters).

* Will the ÖVP win a landslide like in the federal election ?
* How low will the SPÖ fall ?
* How low will the FPÖ fall ? Will it be the biggest loss of votes in the state history ?
* Will the Greens double their share and get a record high ?
* Will the Communists (who are uniquely present in Styria) still be represented ?
* Will NEOS manage to get in for the first time ?

[Tender Branson]

Polls for the Styria (= Steiermark) state elections are open.

They will close at 4pm and we should get an ORF projection then.

Ca. 1 million people are eligible to vote today (1/6 Austrian voters).

* Will the ÖVP win a landslide like in the federal election ?
* How low will the SPÖ fall ?
* How low will the FPÖ fall ? Will it be the biggest loss of votes in the state history ?
* Will the Greens double their share and get a record high ?
* Will the Communists (who are uniquely present in Styria) still be represented ?
* Will NEOS manage to get in for the first time ?

Here are 2 other maps (2015 and 2010 state election by town):



Source: APA/Election Commission

[Tender Branson]

Sporadic reports indicate lower turnout so far for Styria.

Hopefully, a lot of FPÖ-voters are staying home today ...

[Tender Branson]

Polls for the important Styria state election close in 15 minutes.

Rumors are that the ÖVP will gain ~10% and get close to 40%, while the FPÖ will face a debacle today (cut in half from 27% to 13.5%).

The SPÖ losses also seem to be immense (20-22%), while the Greens gain a lot and might even overtake the FPÖ (both around 14%) !

We'll know more in 15 minutes.

Live streams:

Puls 24

ORF

ATV

[Tender Branson]

First ORF/SORA projection here in 5 minutes:

https://orf.at/wahl/#/projection

Results by town:

https://orf.at/wahl/steiermark19/ergebnisse

Maps:

https://orf.at/wahl/steiermark19/choropleth/winner

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is far too high in this first projection ...

Almost all districts outside Graz are already counted and the FPÖ is losing 10% or 11% in those.

Postal ballots and Graz not even in.

Probably 15-16% in the end.

[Tender Branson]

Only 4 towns outside Graz are left to count, among them Thal (Arnold’s home town) and Leoben (a big university and mining/steel city).

[Tender Branson]

Vorau (where FPÖ-leader Norbert Hofer was born and lived for quite some time) has FPÖ minus 13%.

[jaichind]

If seems  FPÖ have under-performed pre-election polls just like the general election.  I guess it will take a while to get out of the shadow of recent scandals

[Tender Branson]

Leoben in, Thal in.

Only Graz left.

Also, the Communists have made it easily into the state parliament again.

NEOS probably for the first time (depending on Graz).

[Tender Branson]

If seems  FPÖ have under-performed pre-election polls just like the general election.  I guess it will take a while to get out of the shadow of recent scandals

Yes. They polled 18-22% and will likely end up with 15% with Graz and the postal ballots.

[Tender Branson]

The Graz count is something ...

The Greens are at 23% there (+9%) and the Communists at 15% right now (doubling their share).

The FPÖ only down 6%.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like the FPÖ really has a die-hard base of 13-15% right now who will never change their voting behavior, no matter which and how many scandals the party produce ...

[Keep Calm and ...]

Graz results:
http://wahl19.graz.at/ergebnisse/lt60101.html

Graz results NRW 2019
https://egov.stmk.gv.at/wahlen/NR2019/NR2019_60100.html

[Tender Branson]

Thank goodness the FPÖ is dropping more in Graz now as more precincts get counted.

Hopefully they drop to 10-11% with the postal ballots ...

That would drag them down to 15% statewide, for a loss of 12%.