What state can be the GOPs version of Virginia, Colorado, or Nevada?
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  What state can be the GOPs version of Virginia, Colorado, or Nevada?
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Author Topic: What state can be the GOPs version of Virginia, Colorado, or Nevada?  (Read 2089 times)
Cyrusman
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« on: December 30, 2018, 10:23:53 PM »

For years and years Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada used to be reliable Republican States until the last 10 years. Going forward what state or states can the republicans version of that in terms of taking a state that had been Democrat and making it a republican state?
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2018, 11:18:23 PM »

Iowa is the obvious one. Ohio is going in the same direction but it was never exactly blue to start with. Maine is going in the same direction as well but it remains to be seen how far that trend will go.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2018, 11:34:46 PM »

Iowa. That’s about it. But even that wasn’t so overwhelmingly Democratic beforehand.

West Virginia could count, but that already had its big shift in 2000.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2018, 03:51:22 AM »

Iowa is the obvious one. Ohio is going in the same direction but it was never exactly blue to start with. Maine is going in the same direction as well but it remains to be seen how far that trend will go.
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Joseph-Michael
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« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2018, 05:08:22 AM »

Its possible, however unlikely, that Wisconsin could be.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2018, 10:08:32 PM »

I agree with Iowa and Maine.
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Neocon Dem
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« Reply #6 on: January 01, 2019, 01:38:53 AM »

I think both Maine and New Hampshire are likely.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #7 on: January 01, 2019, 05:00:52 AM »

Iowa is the obvious one. Ohio is going in the same direction but it was never exactly blue to start with. Maine is going in the same direction as well but it remains to be seen how far that trend will go.
maine i see being one of those state that be toss up but would lean either blue or tilt red federaly will locally (governor races and row offices) voting the opposite of what ever party is in the white house.
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NCJeff
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« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2019, 02:06:09 AM »

The problem is, there aren't many reliable Democratic states that aren't now deep, deep blue.  I assume reliable means that Gore, Kerry, and Hillary carried them.  Well, that means: New England (minus NH), New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, Minnesota, and the pacific states.  All of those are deep blue except Minnesota and Maine; I'd say either fits the bill for your question, but no other state is even close.

The GOP, on the other hand, should probably be worrying about Georgia, Texas, and Arizona.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2019, 11:45:03 AM »

Iowa and Maine are the most likely candidates, eventually West Virginia and Arkansas but both of them began to trend toward republicans in the early 2000s
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The3rdParty
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« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2019, 05:15:30 PM »

Maine could if the dems lose more ground in ME-2(the rural areas still seem to be trending R) as well as Iowa or New Hampshire. Minnesota might get into tossup range in a dem midterm but ultimately it's going to start becoming more D in the future as the suburbs get more blue and population declines happen in the rural areas. Also Olmsted county can become much more D in the future as Rochester grows.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2019, 01:13:47 AM »

Maine could if the dems lose more ground in ME-2(the rural areas still seem to be trending R) as well as Iowa or New Hampshire. Minnesota might get into tossup range in a dem midterm but ultimately it's going to start becoming more D in the future as the suburbs get more blue and population declines happen in the rural areas. Also Olmsted county can become much more D in the future as Rochester grows.

When people lump MN in with WI, IA, MI, OH, even PA and ME, they tend to overlook that MN is significantly better-educated, wealthier, and is experiencing robust growth in its urban core. You can look at the WOW counties in WI with their 2% growth rate and imagine a scenario in which they're still Republican-leaning 10-20 years from now. But Carver and Scott? Along with Olmsted, Dakota, and Washington — not to mention Ramsey and Hennepin — it's not gonna be a pretty picture for the GOP.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2019, 04:58:51 PM »

IA
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Adjective-Statement
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« Reply #13 on: January 08, 2019, 01:32:21 PM »

I could see New Hampshire, Maine, and Vermont moving irreversibly into the Republican column by the mid-century. What's old is new.

Short term, I agree with everyone else. Missouri, Iowa, and Ohio.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2019, 02:37:48 PM »

Iowa, Wisconsin, Maine and Ohio.
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« Reply #15 on: January 08, 2019, 05:20:35 PM »

If you consider Wisconsin to be "reliably Democrat" (it's not) then that would be the only possibility.  Trump was a terrible candidate for the state (still is), and still managed to get the win.  Wisconsin has a tradition of unconventional Republicanism, and I expect that to continue.

Ohio is a swing state turned red. It was never reliably Democrat.

Minnesota is a possibility, but it's culturally becoming more and more like Washington. Seattle and MSP are eerily similar in demographics, culture, and industry, and I see the state as a distant outpost of Cascadia.

So, yeah, Wisconsin.
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BrewCityLiberal
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« Reply #16 on: January 08, 2019, 05:42:17 PM »

If you consider Wisconsin to be "reliably Democrat" (it's not) then that would be the only possibility.  Trump was a terrible candidate for the state (still is), and still managed to get the win.  Wisconsin has a tradition of unconventional Republicanism, and I expect that to continue.

Ohio is a swing state turned red. It was never reliably Democrat.

Minnesota is a possibility, but it's culturally becoming more and more like Washington. Seattle and MSP are eerily similar in demographics, culture, and industry, and I see the state as a distant outpost of Cascadia.

So, yeah, Wisconsin.

Agreed that WI's demographics favor the GOP, but due to the growth of Dane and the slow D trends in the Milwaukee metro, I think Wisconsin will be a purple state for a long time.
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« Reply #17 on: January 08, 2019, 10:22:33 PM »

If you consider Wisconsin to be "reliably Democrat" (it's not) then that would be the only possibility.  Trump was a terrible candidate for the state (still is), and still managed to get the win.  Wisconsin has a tradition of unconventional Republicanism, and I expect that to continue.

Ohio is a swing state turned red. It was never reliably Democrat.

Minnesota is a possibility, but it's culturally becoming more and more like Washington. Seattle and MSP are eerily similar in demographics, culture, and industry, and I see the state as a distant outpost of Cascadia.

So, yeah, Wisconsin.

Agreed that WI's demographics favor the GOP, but due to the growth of Dane and the slow D trends in the Milwaukee metro, I think Wisconsin will be a purple state for a long time.

It really depends on whether the old-line progressive tradition remains in the state, or if they all either die of old age or move to Minnesota.
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BrewCityLiberal
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« Reply #18 on: January 08, 2019, 10:56:28 PM »

If you consider Wisconsin to be "reliably Democrat" (it's not) then that would be the only possibility.  Trump was a terrible candidate for the state (still is), and still managed to get the win.  Wisconsin has a tradition of unconventional Republicanism, and I expect that to continue.

Ohio is a swing state turned red. It was never reliably Democrat.

Minnesota is a possibility, but it's culturally becoming more and more like Washington. Seattle and MSP are eerily similar in demographics, culture, and industry, and I see the state as a distant outpost of Cascadia.

So, yeah, Wisconsin.

Agreed that WI's demographics favor the GOP, but due to the growth of Dane and the slow D trends in the Milwaukee metro, I think Wisconsin will be a purple state for a long time.

It really depends on whether the old-line progressive tradition remains in the state, or if they all either die of old age or move to Minnesota.

....which makes me ponder whether your username is purely satirical.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: January 09, 2019, 07:21:09 PM »

Considering Janet Mills win in Maine, I'm not sure why Maine is really being discussed as an option.
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Politician
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« Reply #20 on: January 09, 2019, 07:30:06 PM »

Considering Janet Mills win in Maine, I'm not sure why Maine is really being discussed as an option.
Muh 2016 trends
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lfromnj
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« Reply #21 on: January 09, 2019, 08:11:14 PM »

Considering Janet Mills win in Maine, I'm not sure why Maine is really being discussed as an option.
Muh 2016 trends

yeah im sure a state that went from +16 obama to +3 Clinton is clearly Trending D.

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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2019, 08:34:28 PM »

Considering Janet Mills win in Maine, I'm not sure why Maine is really being discussed as an option.
Muh 2016 trends
To be fair, it doesn't really make sense that a heavily rural state like Maine is voting Dem while Ohio, with it's three metropolises, is routinely well to its right. Unlike states such as NV/CO/VA, Maine is not a state Democrats can take for granted.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: January 09, 2019, 10:01:45 PM »

Considering Janet Mills win in Maine, I'm not sure why Maine is really being discussed as an option.

Considering Bob McDonnell's far larger win in Virginia, clearly the state is not trending D.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #24 on: January 09, 2019, 10:04:48 PM »

Considering Janet Mills win in Maine, I'm not sure why Maine is really being discussed as an option.

Considering Bob McDonnell's far larger win in Virginia, clearly the state is not trending D.

BUT BRUCE " HEDGE FUND MANAGER From NYC "lost by 1 point with the help of RCV in a 95 percent white rural district. Maine is clearly trending D and you just understand.

Also how do I take a post from before and quote it into my sig. I want to quote myself saying according to atlas every state is trending D.

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