Final Predictions!
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Author Topic: Final Predictions!  (Read 15172 times)
Jake
dubya2004
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« Reply #75 on: November 06, 2005, 04:18:34 PM »

Corzine's stem cell ad and Forrester's response to it. Then came the paid participants in the rally. It's gone down hill since then.
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YRABNNRM
YoungRepub
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« Reply #76 on: November 06, 2005, 06:06:44 PM »

despite the fact that the Republican nominee (Forrester) is pathetic.

Thats hardly a fact or a valid statement.

So, you don't think Forrester has run a pathetic campaign?


Nope.

Unlike you I actually get to see the ads and campaigning on television.
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Moooooo
nickshepDEM
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #77 on: November 06, 2005, 06:22:55 PM »

Well, those of us outside of the broadcast area can view his ad's view the internet.  IMO, Corzines are much better.  Both from a production and content stand point.  The Carl Riccio ad is up there with Kilgore's death penalty ad's.  Powerful stuff.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #78 on: November 06, 2005, 06:24:22 PM »

The Carl Riccio ad is up there with Kilgore's death penalty ad's.  Powerful stuff.

Except that the Carl Riccio ad is true, while the Kilgore ad about the death penalty is slander.
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Moooooo
nickshepDEM
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #79 on: November 06, 2005, 06:25:53 PM »


Except that the Carl Riccio ad is true, while the Kilgore ad about the death penalty is slander.

Not true.  The second death penalty ad featuring the wife of the dead cop was completely true.  She simply stated her opinion that Kaine would not uphold the death penalty.  The first ad lied about Kaine volunteering to defend the murderer.
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
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« Reply #80 on: November 06, 2005, 06:28:25 PM »

Not true.  The second death penalty ad featuring the wife of the dead cop was completely true.  She simply stated her opinion that Kaine would not uphold the death penalty.  The first ad lied about Kaine volunteering to defend the murderer.

Kaine clearly said in the debates beforehand that he would uphold the death penalty. Kilgore puts out ads that says he won't uphold the death penalty.  At a minimum, Kilgore's ads were extremely deceptive and/or false.

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riceowl
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« Reply #81 on: November 06, 2005, 08:53:55 PM »

Yeah, anyone remember something about a DRAFT last year?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #82 on: November 06, 2005, 09:26:19 PM »

Get those predictions in, guys! We are only alittle over a day away from Election day '05!
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MAS117
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« Reply #83 on: November 07, 2005, 01:00:23 AM »
« Edited: November 07, 2005, 01:08:00 AM by MAS117 »

New Jersey Gubernatorial Election
Senator Jon Corzine: 51%
Doug Forrester: 46%
Other: 3%

Virginia Gubernatorial Election
Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine: 49%
Fmr. Atty. Gen. Jerry Kilgore: 48%
State Senator Russ Potts: 4%

Virginia will come down to a recount.

Haven't really been following the New York Mayor's race, so I have no idea, although I'd say a 60+ percentage of the vote for Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
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Jake
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« Reply #84 on: November 07, 2005, 01:01:59 AM »

MAS, um, 80-20 seems a bit high.
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MAS117
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #85 on: November 07, 2005, 01:04:10 AM »


What?
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Jake
dubya2004
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« Reply #86 on: November 07, 2005, 01:05:03 AM »

You predicted Mayor Bloomberg to win by 60 percent.
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MAS117
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #87 on: November 07, 2005, 01:07:36 AM »

You predicted Mayor Bloomberg to win by 60 percent.
I'm sorry, I meant with 60%+ of the vote, I'll edit that.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #88 on: November 07, 2005, 03:03:01 PM »


Yeah, NJ's minor party candidates are the biggest jokes in the country. No way they reach 3% tomorrow.
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Moooooo
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #89 on: November 07, 2005, 03:05:08 PM »

Probably not, but when you consider the fact that every SV poll published showed a majority of NJ voters are not satisified with either candidate... You cant rule it out.  I guess its more likely that voters stay home then vote third party though.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #90 on: November 07, 2005, 03:05:37 PM »

I guess its more likely that voters stay home then vote third party though.

Much more likely.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #91 on: November 07, 2005, 03:21:56 PM »

Detroit Mayor.
Hendrix 58%
Kilpatrick 42%

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MAS117
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #92 on: November 07, 2005, 05:43:18 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2005, 07:43:53 PM by MAS117 »


Yeah, NJ's minor party candidates are the biggest jokes in the country. No way they reach 3% tomorrow.

True, they are jokes, however there's alot of candidates, and the major ones got free air time on the debate with Corzine and Forrester. 3% is a stretch, but its possible.

In the words of Former Senator Geroge Geist, "We shall see, we shall see."
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #93 on: November 07, 2005, 05:47:12 PM »

Detroit Mayor.
Hendrix 58%
Kilpatrick 42%



finally a prediction on the Detroit mayor race

my guess 

Hendrix  55%
Kilpatrick 45%

Any more predictions for the Detroit mayor race
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Alcon
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« Reply #94 on: November 07, 2005, 06:31:18 PM »

I have not been watching things all that much recently, but here is my casual guess:

Virginia Governor
Kaine 50%
Kilgore 46%
Potts 4%

New Jersey Governor
Corzine 52%
Forreser 47%

Rounding might kill be in NJ, but I am predicting a percentage margin of about five points.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #95 on: November 07, 2005, 07:52:49 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2005, 09:12:48 PM by Sam Spade (GM) »

My final predictions:

First, the easy race...

NYC Mayor

Poor Freddy, he never had a chance.  I wouldn't have voted for him anyway.  The question here is not whether Bloomberg will win, but how much he will win by.

Bloomberg - 66.5%
Ferrer - 30.3%
Other - 3.2%

MOE +/- 3%

NJ Governor

I debated long and hard about this, considering the late-breaking nature of New Jersey's fickle Independent voters.  With the last Marist, SUSA and Rasmussen polls, I feel more confident now. So, I am now solidifying around the prediction I made at the beginning of the campaign, with a larger margin of error because, as I always say, it is New Jersey and things have been known to change at a drop of the hat in the polling booth.

Corzine - 51.9%
Forrester - 46.8%
Other - 1.3%

MOE +/- 4%

VA Governor

The toughest race of all to call.  As you know, a couple of weeks ago I predicted a 4-point Kilgore win.  However, since that time it has been pretty apparent that Kaine is gaining momentum, whereas Kilgore seems stuck around 45%.

Yet there are, at the same time, a few factors which underscore a prediction.  Historically, polling companies underpoll Republicans by about 2%-3%, because they overpoll Fairfax/NoVA and underpoll the mountain areas.  In a close race like this, it is always quite possible that Potts voters might return to their party if they believe the race is close (the Nader factor, I call it)  At the same time, Kilgore has Bush coming in a last-minute campaign stop, something which could mean any number of things.

Virginia has not elected a governor of the same party as the President since 1973.  My prediction will now have that record holding until 2009.

Kaine - 49.3%
Kilgore - 47.8%
Potts - 2.4%
Other - 0.3%

MOE +/- 3.5%, given some of the latest volatility of the polling in the race.
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tarheel-leftist85
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« Reply #96 on: November 07, 2005, 08:38:47 PM »

Holding off for VA Gov. race since it has to be my final!
NJ Gov.:
Corzine--52%
Forrester--45%
NYC Myr. (not that I really care!)
Bloomberg--64%
Ferrer--34%
VA Lt. Gov.
Byrne--47%
Rep.--53%
VA Atty. General
Deeds--49%
Rep.--51%

As promised, here is my VA final prediction:
Kaine--49.2%
Kilgore--47.9%
Potts & Others--2.9%
Very close race, but Kaine is able to pull through.
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Jake
dubya2004
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« Reply #97 on: November 07, 2005, 08:49:54 PM »

Ignore my first prediction, my final predictions on election eve are:

New York City

Bloomberg....62
Ferrer...........37

Virginia

Kilgore....50
Kaine......48

New Jersey

Corzine......51
Forrester....48

Scranton Mayor

Doherty......55
DiBlileo.......45
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danwxman
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« Reply #98 on: November 08, 2005, 12:34:15 AM »

Harrisburg Mayor

Stephen Reed (D) - 75%
Stephen Reed (R) - 25%
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Blank Slate
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« Reply #99 on: November 08, 2005, 12:36:54 AM »

A few final predictions from around the country (I posted California predictions in that topic post and Minneapolis/St. Paul in that topic post & New Jersey, New York and Virginia I posted earlier and am sticking by that one):

ST. PETERSBURG, FL MAYOR

Rick Baker (i)           80%
Ed Helm                  20%
 
(although non-partisan, it is well known that Baker is Republican and labor attorney Ed Helm is Democrat, but Helm has screwed up a lot during this election against popular Baker).

ATLANTA, GA MAYOR
(this is a revision from an earlier prediction, I think Shirley Franklin has angered a number of people by taking her re-election for granted and also made some enemies by endorsing several of her friends for the city council, she still will win by a healthy margin, though -- although it's less than I originally predicted)

Shirley Franklin (i)                  73%
Glenn Wrightson                    16%
Dave Walker                            9%
James Harris (write-in)            2%

SANDY SPRINGS, GA MAYOR
(this is a new city and although a non-partisan race this has taken on some partisan overtones that were very unexpected, this will now be the second largest city in Georgia -- population wise -- and will affect how Fulton County and the City of Atlanta and much of the rest of Georgia do business; it was thought that long time cityhood activist 77-years old, Eva Galambos {whose known to be a Republican} would take this in a walk -- but her opponent businessman Tim Spruell {41-years old and known to be a Democrat} who is one of many people in Sandy Springs not thrilled about how some who are setting up this new city are wanting so much of a divorce from Fulton County that it might affect the ability for Sandy Springs to set up it's tax base, many are even predicting a surprise Spruell win, although close, and I will be one of them):

Tim Spruell              52%
Eva Galambos        48%

(I'm also going to predict that one more Democrat, Kathleen M. Womack, will win the most southeast district {and most close geographically to the City of Atlanta} on the new Sandy Springs City Council, with 53% of the vote.  The other five council seats will go to Republicans, although all but one of those, -- one that will be won by Ashley Disque Jenkins -- who one time was a staff member for Senator Orrin Hatch -- will be won by more moderate Republicans).

BOSTON, MA MAYOR:

Thomas M. Menino (i)            65%
Maura Hennigan                   35%

(The major highlight in Boston will be the election to the City Council to an At-Large seat of an Asian American, Sam Yoon from Dorchester neighborhood).

SPRINGFIELD, MA MAYOR:

Thomas M. Ashe                  52%
Charles V. Ryan (i)              48%

NORTHHAMPTON, MA MAYOR:

Richard J. Feldman              54%
Clare Higgins (i)                  46%

HOLYOKE, MA MAYOR:

Mark A. Lubold                    51%
Michael J. Sullivan (i)           49%

(Sullivan will be dragged down out of office due to a non-binding resolution to approve Sullivan's controversial July 2005 20-year contract with Aquarion Operating Services to upgrade Holyoke's wastewater treatment plant being defeated by a 60% NO vote -- meaning it's by a company that is so privately owned that the city's water will be owned by the company).

DETROIT, MI MAYOR:

Freman Hendrix                  58% 
Kwame Kilpatrick (i)            42%

ASHEVILLE, NC MAYOR:
(incumbent Charles Worley retiring)

Terry M. Bellamy                  57%
Dr. Joe Dunn                       43%

(I list my prediction in this race only because this could have both significance for the upcoming 2006 races, but also very historic significance.  In the past the Asheville, NC area and the mountain areas of North Carolina in general were very heavily Democratic, and even in the 1980's up to 1994 this area was split almost even between the Democrats and the Republicans.  But since 1994 this area had become heavily Republican with some left over vestiges of Democratic leanings at times -- the Congressman from the area is Taylor.   But my sense is with this election, many of the newer residents and also newly more well off African-Americans and women are not happy about this happening in the more liberal enclaves of the city of Asheville.  In 2001, incumbent Worley, a Republican and businessman, won this seat by pouring in $1.2 million of his own money.  This time around there is far less money by both candidates, and they almost even -- Bellamy, a city councilwoman and an African-American, raised a little less money by has more cash on hand for the closing days {Bellamy is also being supported as is several city council candidates by a new Democratic coalition group in Asheville}, while Dunn had raised a slightly more money, but has less cash on hand in the closing days.  I also think the age of the candidates will play into this result {Bellamy is 33-years old, while Dunn is 61-years old} and also the fact that Bellamy is attracting many white women to her candidacy will also help her.   Bellamy is also extremely well spoken, and for me she also looks very pretty, so I would vote for her myself, if I was in Asheville.  It would also be nice to see a major city in the south, other than Atlanta have a African-American woman mayor, I wish Bellamy luck).

That's it for now, might have some more tomorrow morning, but I have to remember to go and vote myself, so I might not myself.  Plus it is my birthday tomorrow.             
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