Will China have truly competitive multi-party elections by 2040?

[Beet]

Hopefully. What I'd like to see:

1) transition to liberal democracy
2) grant Taiwan independence
3) settle LOAC border with India
4) cede Diaoyu islands
5) settle SCS disputes
6) fix demographic problems

[Beet]

Having learned from history, I can't see any major actors in the CPC or PLA seeking to liberalize politics in China for at least the next half century.

No, I agree with that. Some actors seeking to take bigger piece of the cake is more likely, especially if the cake doesn't grow as much as it did in the past.

China cannot learn from Russian history, this is the mistake the CPC made in the 1920s, and the CPC has been making since the 1990s. From the perspective of PRC history, repression has always had negative effects, but liberalization has been a great success.

[Beet]

Having learned from history, I can't see any major actors in the CPC or PLA seeking to liberalize politics in China for at least the next half century.

No, I agree with that. Some actors seeking to take bigger piece of the cake is more likely, especially if the cake doesn't grow as much as it did in the past.

China cannot learn from Russian history, this is the mistake the CPC made in the 1920s, and the CPC has been making since the 1990s. From the perspective of PRC history, repression has always had negative effects, but liberalization has been a great success.

Those who in their political formative years witnessed the Soviet collapse are now in their 50s/60s, precisely at the top of the Party hierarchy. But that experience will be less and less relevant as younger people gradually replace them in the coming decades. By the 2030s, there will be a new generation whose political beliefs are entirely shaped by what happened under Xi Jinping. They may not want to consciously dismantle the party, but may realize the Party is so rotten it can't be saved.

The external situation definitely won't improve for China. "Get tough on China" has become a new bipartisan consensus in Washington, which is remarkable given the mindless hyperpartisanship. One Belt One Road has had no major accomplishments and has been explicitly rejected in elections. Chinese high-tech products are now effectively shut out of western markets, and they know that China's large tech companies can be killed with a pen and paper in Washington. Finally, since China is now the #1 customer of oil from the Middle East, it now has a direct stake in the region's arcane politics and will be drawn in during the next dumpster fire.

Well, I'm glad someone sees it my way! The Chinese nationalists on other sites are always like CHINAR1! whenever you try to suggest Xi Jinping isn't the second coming