What % chance do you give for a 2019 Dem sweep?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2024, 02:41:22 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  What % chance do you give for a 2019 Dem sweep?		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4
Poll
Question: What % chance do you give the Dems to win all 3 states (KY/LA/MS)
#1
0%		  
#2
1-10%		  
#3
11-20%		  
#4
21-30%		  
#5
31-40%		  
#6
41-50%		  
#7
51-60%		  
#8
61-70%		  
#9
71-80%		  
#10
81-90%		  
#11
91-100%		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 134

Author Topic: What % chance do you give for a 2019 Dem sweep?  (Read 7740 times)
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,368


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: January 03, 2019, 10:05:01 AM »
FYI yarmuth is mostly safe right from redistricting due to the constitution and splitting counties?
If they really tried I think they could get a D+2 district but that would be like Clinton +8 so almost Safe D.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,545


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: January 03, 2019, 10:10:57 AM »
Quote from: lfromnj on January 03, 2019, 10:05:01 AM
FYI yarmuth is mostly safe right from redistricting due to the constitution and splitting counties?
If they really tried I think they could get a D+2 district but that would be like Clinton +8 so almost Safe D.

Lol.  Any Clinton district in Kentucky is safe Dem.
Logged
The3rdParty
Rookie
**
Posts: 134
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.67, S: -4.25

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: January 03, 2019, 04:30:21 PM »
About a 15 percent chance. Edwards will probabaly win, but I'd be suprised if the other two did.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,755


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: January 04, 2019, 03:44:18 AM »
LA: 75% Dem
MS: 50% Dem
KY: 30% Dem

Overall: 11.25%
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,368


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: January 04, 2019, 10:39:05 AM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on January 04, 2019, 03:44:18 AM
LA: 75% Dem
MS: 50% Dem
KY: 30% Dem

Overall: 11.25%

MS and KY aren't that high.

Also there should be a small correlation coefficient  making your math something like 12 or 13 if you actually believe those numbers.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: January 07, 2019, 12:00:12 AM »
0% because that's their chances in Kentucky.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,124
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: January 11, 2019, 05:05:13 PM »
1%.
Logged
wesmoorenerd
westroopnerd
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,600
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: July 01, 2019, 09:19:35 AM »
Reviving this to update my predictions.

Louisiana: 60%

Kentucky: 30%

Mississippi: 5%

Overall: 1%

Clearly less likely than a GOP sweep at this point. Mississippi is looking like a VERY tough nut to crack.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: July 01, 2019, 09:26:40 AM »
Louisiana: 75%
Kentucky: 35%
Mississippi: 20%
Overall: 12%
Logged
Ilhan Apologist
Glowfish
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: July 01, 2019, 10:28:13 AM »
Why is Jim Hood so much more likely to win than Andy Beshear?
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: July 01, 2019, 10:53:59 AM »
Quote from: Cultural Marxist on July 01, 2019, 10:28:13 AM
Why is Jim Hood so much more likely to win than Andy Beshear?
He isn't.
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,599


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: July 01, 2019, 10:57:54 AM »
Quote from: Wesley Troopner on July 01, 2019, 09:19:35 AM
Reviving this to update my predictions.

Louisiana: 60%

Kentucky: 30%

Mississippi: 5%

Overall: 1%

Clearly less likely than a GOP sweep at this point. Mississippi is looking like a VERY tough nut to crack.

So just because of that single poll that showed Hood behind by 12 points, he now only has a 5% chance of winning?
Logged
Ilhan Apologist
Glowfish
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: July 01, 2019, 10:58:55 AM »

That's what I thought
Logged
wesmoorenerd
westroopnerd
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,600
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: July 01, 2019, 10:59:08 AM »
Quote from: 🗣️ Einstein Was a Socialist 🗣️ on July 01, 2019, 10:57:54 AM
Quote from: Wesley Troopner on July 01, 2019, 09:19:35 AM
Reviving this to update my predictions.

Louisiana: 60%

Kentucky: 30%

Mississippi: 5%

Overall: 1%

Clearly less likely than a GOP sweep at this point. Mississippi is looking like a VERY tough nut to crack.

So just because of that single poll that showed Hood behind by 12 points, he now only has a 5% chance of winning?

It's more than just that, lol. I don't know why everyone believes that Hood is some extraordinarily popular figure in MS but Reeves is essentially Matt Bevin.
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: July 01, 2019, 11:20:15 AM »
Very low. JBE is the only one that has a good shot at winning.
Logged
Ilhan Apologist
Glowfish
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: July 01, 2019, 11:29:07 AM »
Also, you have to win the majority of counties to win the governorship in Mississippi, right? That pretty much locks any Democrat out.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,541
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: July 01, 2019, 12:04:38 PM »
21-30%
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,863
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: July 01, 2019, 12:20:10 PM »
7.58%

95% Chance in LA
38% Chance in MS
21% Chance in KY
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: July 01, 2019, 02:12:21 PM »
Quote from: Cultural Marxist on July 01, 2019, 11:29:07 AM
Also, you have to win the majority of counties to win the governorship in Mississippi, right? That pretty much locks any Democrat out.
No, you have to win the majority of state house districts.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,283
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: July 01, 2019, 04:59:16 PM »
LA - 90% chance
KY - 30% chance
MS - 40% chance

Overall: 15-20%

I don’t buy the Reeves +12 poll at all.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,368


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: July 01, 2019, 05:53:17 PM »
Quote from: Muh trends on July 01, 2019, 02:12:21 PM
Quote from: Cultural Marxist on July 01, 2019, 11:29:07 AM
Also, you have to win the majority of counties to win the governorship in Mississippi, right? That pretty much locks any Democrat out.
No, you have to win the majority of state house districts.

This is also a myth. You only have to win if you fail to win a majority of the vote.  So this only affects the race in the scenario with a strong liberal 3rd party campaign(not unreasonable as Hood is white but Hood is getting black support in the primary anyway and race isn't everything for black voters.)
So considering how 2016 was a strong 3rd party year relatively it is unlikely this will affect the race but not impossible.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: July 02, 2019, 06:24:40 AM »
LA - 70%
MS - 30%
KY - 25%

Overall: 5%
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,698
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: July 02, 2019, 08:02:51 AM »
I am not giving a percentage, but there might be a wave beginning to develop again, Dem chances have improved
Logged
Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,735


Political Matrix
E: 3.00, S: -0.41

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: July 03, 2019, 09:18:36 PM »
Louisiana 75%
Kentucky 35%
Mississippi 25% (I don’t buy the hype here at all.)

So a 6.56% chance of a Dem sweep.

 
Logged
Ilhan Apologist
Glowfish
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: July 05, 2019, 10:36:24 AM »
Quote from: Pragmatic Conservative on July 03, 2019, 09:18:36 PM
Louisiana 75%
Kentucky 35%
Mississippi 25% (I don’t buy the hype here at all.)

So a 6.56% chance of a Dem sweep.

 

But are the chances of wins completely independent from one another?
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.063 seconds with 13 queries.