What % chance do you give for a 2019 Dem sweep?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

On KY news sites and Youtube channels all the comments say how much they hate Bevin and want him to lose. Useless anecdote and I don't expect him to lose but it's interesting because comments on such sites/channels are almost always 95% right wing/anti Dem candidate. Shows just how unpopular he is.

[Rookie Yinzer]

0%

When it comes down to it Mississippi deplorable whites will not let a Democrat be their chief executive. I don't care that they have let Hood keep his little down ballot position for a couple terms past the implosion of the party in their state. All the Republican has to do is holler about abortion and gays and they will flock right to him.

[smoltchanov]

55% GOP Sweep
35% GOP 2/3
9% DEM 2/3
1% DEM Sweep

It's Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi, and Atlas is delusional.

55% GOP sweep??? For that Abraham must have at least 55% (in fact - closer to 60%) chance in Louisiana. Even for this conservative state that's too much (JBE is fairly popular, and, thanks God, as 2018 has shown, governor races are still considerably less polarized by party, then federal), especially - with candidate being little known, obscure and dull congressman. With Kennedy - yes, it would be true, but - not with present bench of Republican candidates.

[MT Treasurer]

55% GOP Sweep
35% GOP 2/3
9% DEM 2/3
1% DEM Sweep

It's Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi, and Atlas is delusional.

55% GOP sweep??? For that Abraham must have at least 55% (in fact - closer to 60%) chance in Louisiana. Even for this conservative state that's too much (JBE is fairly popular, and, thanks God, as 2018 has shown, governor races are still considerably less polarized by party, then federal), especially - with candidate being little known, obscure and dull congressman. With Kennedy - yes, it would be true, but - not with present bench of Republican candidates.

Yeah, if anything his prediction of a 55% chance of a GOP sweep is delusional, and LOL at all the "1%/<1%/0% DEM Sweep" predictions. JBE is a popular incumbent who’s a good fit for his state and already ahead in polling by comfortable margins, Hood is a popular statewide elected official facing a weak GOP field and running in a state with a very high black population that came within 7% of electing a Democratic sacrificial lamb to the Senate, and Bevin is very unpopular and already trailing in polling. If "polarization" was the unstoppable force people are making it out to be, Larry Hogan wouldn’t have won reelection by 12% in one of the most Democratic and "inelastic" states in the country in a massive Democratic wave year, and a Democrat wouldn’t have won a Senate race in a Trump +42 state where the president remains extremely popular.

[538Electoral]

Probably won't be higher than 20%.

[lfromnj]

0%

When it comes down to it Mississippi deplorable whites will not let a Democrat be their chief executive. I don't care that they have let Hood keep his little down ballot position for a couple terms past the implosion of the party in their state. All the Republican has to do is holler about abortion and gays and they will flock right to him.

I was also really down om hoods chances but considering a black corrupt man lost by 7 id say hood has a 20 to 25 percent chance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will indeed sweep due to Hood and Beshear overperforming expectations. Hopefully, KY will go due to Matt Bevin not having incumbency advantage like McConnell

[libertpaulian]

The Kentucky gubernatorial election has been a 21st century presidential bellwether.  So, using pure political superstition, if Dems want to win in 2020, they'd better oust Bevin...

[Kodak]

2/108 chance of a Dem sweep
21/108 chance 1 state votes GOP
60/108 chance 1 state votes Dem
25/108 chance of a GOP sweep

[pppolitics]

LA-80%
MS-50%
KY-25%
Overall: 20%

Math lesson: you take the probability of each event happening and multiply them together to get the probability that all three happen.

0.80 x 0.50 x 0.25 = 0.10

10% chance all three happen

LA-90%
MS-50,1%
KY-25%

Overall: 30%

Math lesson: you take the probability of each event happening and multiply them together to get the probability that all three happen.

0.90 x 0.50 x 0.25 = 0.1125

Overall: 11.25%

[Cokeland Saxton]

LA - 60%
MS - 25%
KY - 5%

So about a 0.75% chance.

[Bidenworth2020]

Here’s the reason why it’s zero percent:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/21/business/economy/harlan-county-republican-welfare.html

You can’t win when the people most dependent on government hate the government for not fixing all their communities’ ails while unironically being anti-government involvement of any kind.

No one wants to admit it, but there’s no helping these parts of the country. The brutal (and intellectually honest) truth is that the only practical solution is to just cut off government assistance to these communities (not to people with disabilities and who are retired, obviously) and let that continue until people in the community start wanting to help themselves. You shouldn’t force help on people who clearly don’t want it.

I don't really disagree with you, but stop acting like this is some sort of must-win county for Beshear. Bevin easily won it, as mentioned, in 2015. They should do profiles on actual bellwether counties, like Eliott and Rowan.

[Nyvin]

So is it basically a consensus by this point that Republicans will retain the governorship in Kentucky, and therefore be in total control of redistricting, enabling them to consolidate their hold on the legislature for the foreseeable future?


If so, I'd be curious to see what kind of majorities Republicans will see in the Kentucky House after redistricting.  They currently have a 63:37 majority under a Democratic-drawn map, so perhaps upwards of 70 or 75 sounds reasonable?  

Kentucky requires a simple majority to override the governor's veto.

Kentucky's governor is actually one of the least powerful in the country.

[lfromnj]

Wouldn't there be a small correlation coefficient between the races?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

LA-80%
MS-50%
KY-25%
Overall: 20%

Math lesson: you take the probability of each event happening and multiply them together to get the probability that all three happen.

0.80 x 0.50 x 0.25 = 0.10

10% chance all three happen

LA-90%
MS-50,1%
KY-25%

Overall: 30%

Math lesson: you take the probability of each event happening and multiply them together to get the probability that all three happen.

0.90 x 0.50 x 0.25 = 0.1125

Overall: 11.25%

For the first one, the probabilities are correlated owing to uncertainty about the national environment, so you can't just multiply them together.

The numbers in the second one don't work, though. It's impossible for a Democratic sweep to be more probable than a Democratic win in Kentucky.

[Bidenworth2020]

Here’s the reason why it’s zero percent:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/21/business/economy/harlan-county-republican-welfare.html

You can’t win when the people most dependent on government hate the government for not fixing all their communities’ ails while unironically being anti-government involvement of any kind.

No one wants to admit it, but there’s no helping these parts of the country. The brutal (and intellectually honest) truth is that the only practical solution is to just cut off government assistance to these communities (not to people with disabilities and who are retired, obviously) and let that continue until people in the community start wanting to help themselves. You shouldn’t force help on people who clearly don’t want it.

I don't really disagree with you, but stop acting like this is some sort of must-win county for Beshear. Bevin easily won it, as mentioned, in 2015. They should do profiles on actual bellwether counties, like Eliott and Rowan.

You clearly misread if you think I called Harlan County a must-win for a KY Democrat. That is far from the point I was making

Sorry. I interpreted "this is why Dems have a zero percent chance" because they weren't gonna win Harlan. Stupid in hindsight, lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY Dems are getting their act together. Hood is a wildcard and every Gov, except Kathleen Blanco has been reelected. There is a new political landscape, Dems can sweep.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I’m gonna say that Edwards has a 70% chance of winning, Hood has a 50% chance of winning, and Beshear has a 30% chance of winning. If we’re assuming that all three elections are entirely independent events (which simultaneous elections never truly are), that’s a ~11% chance of a Democratic sweep.

[NewYorkExpress]

0%.

Democrats should be able to win two of Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi, but they won't win all three.

If you asked me today, I'd say they have a better chance in Kentucky, because Bevin's approval ratings are at Chris Christie levels, whereas Mississippi is an open seat with a non controversial incumbent.

[Strong Candidate]

0%

When it comes down to it Mississippi deplorable whites will not let a Democrat be their chief executive. I don't care that they have let Hood keep his little down ballot position for a couple terms past the implosion of the party in their state. All the Republican has to do is holler about abortion and gays and they will flock right to him.

It's worth noting that Hood is pro-life, and is even defending an anti-abortion law that was written by a Republican gubernatorial candidate in court right now. While I still think he'll lose, Republicans won't  be able to attack him from the right on abortion (I actually think it's more likely that they will engage n rating by reminding liberal voters of his abortion record).

[Farmlands]

I had no idea Hood was so popular in Mississipi, and since it is a gubernatorial and not senate race, I'm putting it as lean D. Overall, I'm giving it a 30% chance of happening.

[wesmoorenerd]

Seems to be an unpopular opinion here but I think our chances in KY are better than our chances in MS. Reeves won't be a pushover and I can guarantee he's more popular than Bevin.

[Roll Roons]

Seems to be an unpopular opinion here but I think our chances in KY are better than our chances in MS. Reeves won't be a pushover and I can guarantee he's more popular than Bevin.

At this point I'm also starting to think that Beshear is more likely to win than Hood. KY has elected a Democratic governor more recently than MS, and Ernie Fletcher, the last Republican governor to run for reelection in Kentucky, got blanched in 2007.

[Zaybay]

Seems to be an unpopular opinion here but I think our chances in KY are better than our chances in MS. Reeves won't be a pushover and I can guarantee he's more popular than Bevin.

At this point I'm also starting to think that Beshear is more likely to win than Hood. KY has elected a Democratic governor more recently than MS, and Ernie Fletcher, the last Republican governor to run for reelection in Kentucky, got blanched in 2007.

Gotta agree with the both of you. KY most likely flips before MS.

[Mr.Phips]

So is it basically a consensus by this point that Republicans will retain the governorship in Kentucky, and therefore be in total control of redistricting, enabling them to consolidate their hold on the legislature for the foreseeable future?


If so, I'd be curious to see what kind of majorities Republicans will see in the Kentucky House after redistricting.  They currently have a 63:37 majority under a Democratic-drawn map, so perhaps upwards of 70 or 75 sounds reasonable?  

Dems had to stretch themselves a bit thin in the 2011 state house redistricting.  I can’t really see any places where they really helped themselves with the exception of squeezing out a Dem district in the Cinci suburbs.