The Official 2020 Census Thread

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The Census Bureau has not scheduled anything Census-related on their release calendar until at least Jan. 20th - which probably means Trump cannot alter the numbers anymore and he won’t get his hands on the new numbers either because his time is up ...

Where can we find the release calendar?

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Data quality in the Census was very solid, according to a press release today:

DEC. 31, 2020 — The 2020 Census data collection contained numerous quality checks, including analyzing data about census takers’ work and reinterviewing cases where the data suggested a potential problem. Every completed case and every census taker’s work went through a battery of checks designed to spot unusual patterns of work, called analytic selection. If the analytical process indicated a census taker had zero cases selected for review, it was an indication that nothing was out of the ordinary about their work characteristics. The analytic selection techniques were sufficient for detecting unusual patterns of work, alleviating the need to check every census taker and tens of millions of results through reinterviews.

(...)

Preliminary metrics on census takers’ work reveal that far below 1% (i.e., 0.4%) of census takers may have falsified their work or performed work unsuccessfully to the extent that it needed to be reworked. According to preliminary metrics, about 13% of those completed rework cases for the census takers were found to be either a hard fail or a performance fail (meaning that the cases needed to be reworked). The other 87% of rework cases examined passed the reinterview. Therefore, enumerators who may have falsified data or performed poor quality work were very rare.

The Census Bureau is committed to data quality and completed almost 1.6 million reinterviews for this purpose during a national pandemic and severe weather challenges. The Census Bureau will continue to assess 2020 Census operations and their impact on data quality, and will publicly share the information.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-census-nonresponse-followup-reinterview.html

Exactly. This narrative that the 2020 census is gonna be inaccurate needs to end.

How are you supposed to change people's minds on that by using the Census's words directly? Nobody would trust that.

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Trump administration misses census data deadline, eyes March handover to Congress

I'm glad they're getting more time. I hope they make good use of it.

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Census Bureau to Release 2020 Census Geographic Products

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that 2020 Census redistricting (P.L. 94-171) geographic support products will be available for all states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on a flow basis starting Jan. 19 and ending no later than Feb. 28.

These products consist of 2020 Census geography with the newly created 2020 Census blocks and updated block groups, census tracts, voting districts, and current boundaries for legal governments and school districts referenced to Jan. 1, 2020. Each state’s package will include shapefiles, maps, block assignment files and name lookup tables. These products are provided to support redistricting efforts by state and local governments.

In addition, a 2010 to 2020 block crosswalk will be provided with each state release to assist data users in comparing geographic data between censuses. Shapefiles, maps, block assignment files, name lookup tables, and the crosswalk will be provided in the same format as the 2010 Census version of these files.

The Census Bureau uses geography as the basis for conducting the census and tabulating census data. Census geography is a key component of the data products for decision-makers and data users. The Census Bureau collects, defines and maintains boundaries for over 29 different categories of geographic areas for statistical purposes, but this variety of geographic areas are often important to other federal, state and local agencies as well. Many agencies rely on the Census Bureau boundaries for incorporated places, minor civil divisions and counties since they are updated and maintained each year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-census-geographic-products.html

What does "flow basis" mean? Does it mean we'll get one or two states every day between January 19 and February 28? If so, is there a schedule?

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Census Bureau to Release 2020 Census Geographic Products

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that 2020 Census redistricting (P.L. 94-171) geographic support products will be available for all states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on a flow basis starting Jan. 19 and ending no later than Feb. 28.

These products consist of 2020 Census geography with the newly created 2020 Census blocks and updated block groups, census tracts, voting districts, and current boundaries for legal governments and school districts referenced to Jan. 1, 2020. Each state’s package will include shapefiles, maps, block assignment files and name lookup tables. These products are provided to support redistricting efforts by state and local governments.

In addition, a 2010 to 2020 block crosswalk will be provided with each state release to assist data users in comparing geographic data between censuses. Shapefiles, maps, block assignment files, name lookup tables, and the crosswalk will be provided in the same format as the 2010 Census version of these files.

The Census Bureau uses geography as the basis for conducting the census and tabulating census data. Census geography is a key component of the data products for decision-makers and data users. The Census Bureau collects, defines and maintains boundaries for over 29 different categories of geographic areas for statistical purposes, but this variety of geographic areas are often important to other federal, state and local agencies as well. Many agencies rely on the Census Bureau boundaries for incorporated places, minor civil divisions and counties since they are updated and maintained each year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-census-geographic-products.html

What does "flow basis" mean? Does it mean we'll get one or two states every day between January 19 and February 28? If so, is there a schedule?

In 2011, when the actual data was released, there would be an announcement each Thursday of the states that would be released the following week.

Then on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday there would be announcements that the data had been sent to the legislature and governors of the states. The next day there would be a public release after the Census Bureau received confirmation that data had been received, and the Census Bureau would provide a data analysis.

The releases in 2011 were weighted towards Wednesday.

Monday: 11
Tuesday: 16
Wednesday: 25
Total: 52 (includes DC and PR).

So they were able to tell 6 days in advance when they would be able to ship the data, and about 1/2 the time, they were able to do so in 4 or 5 days.

In 2011 weekly releases were

Jan 31-Feb 2: 0,0,4
Feb 7-9: 0,1,4 = 5
Feb 14-16: 2,1,1 = 4
Feb 21-23: 0,4,4 = 8
Feb 28-Mar 2: 1,2,2 = 5
Mar 7-9: 2,2,3 = 7
Mar 14-16: 3,3,3 = 9
Mar 21-23: 3,3,4 = 10

My guess is that there are teams responsible for completing each state, with members moving to later states as they near completion.

In 2011 the four states that were released first were LA, MS, NJ, and VA, wre the four states with 2011 legislative elections (i.e. they needed new districts pronto). In 2021, only NJ and VA have legislative elections. LA and MS still use odd years, but they are every four years.

In 2011, states with early primaries in 2012, such as IL and TX had fairly early releases.

This release is a little bit different since it includes only the geography. States and the public will be able to draw maps, but won't have any population numbers.

It is possible that someone using the crosswalk files may be able to transfer the 2010 Census figures into the 2020 geography, so that someone could use DRA to practice drawing maps for when the actual data arrives.

p.s. The Census Bureau has scheduled a release announcement for every Friday through July. This was probably just a clerk who was told to add a periodic event to the calendar, and were told to do one for every Friday. "For how long?", "Oh, through April should be fine, let's be extra cautious and do July. We can cancel if they aren't needed."

If they follow the pattern of 2011, announcement will occur on January 22, with the first data shipping on January 25-27.

Awesome! Thank you for such great info!

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2020 Census Geographic Products Available (for Arkansas, Colorado, Maryland, New Jersey and Virginia) (U.S. Census Bureau)

One can view maps or download shapefiles, etc. from the Decennial Census P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data page.

These were released on January 19. The next two tranches have also been announced.

States Posted on 01/19/2021: AR, CO, MD, NJ & VA
States Posting on 01/26/2021: CA, IA, IN, LA, MO, NC, NY, OH, & OR
States Posting on 02/02/2021: DE, HI, ME, MS, NE, NV, PA, SD, WA, WI

NJ and VA are the two states holding legislative elections this year, and being first among the geographical products suggests that they may be first with the population data.

LA and MS also hold odd-year legislative elections, but they are on a 4-year cycle with the next elections in 2023.


In our discussion of staggered state senate terms did I ever mention that North Dakota truncates the terms of senators and representatives when there has been considerable change in the district.

So if odd-numbered districts were contested in 2020, and an odd-numbered district would be significantly changed in redistricting, the senator's term would be truncated to two years, and an election for a two-year term would be held in 2022.

This would mean that even-numbered districts contested in 2018 would be up in 2022 and there would be no restrictions on redistricting for 2022.

North Dakota also varies the number of districts, so for example, they might add a district in the Williston Basin rather than sliding districts into an area of high growth.


There is clear precedent for not redistricting four year (concurrent) when the first election would be in the -4 year.

Maryland elects legislators on a four year cycle. There was a companion case to Reynolds v Sims, where the SCOTUS explicitly stated that it was OK for Maryland to not be  redistricted until the 1966 (the other states, including Alabama were required to redistrict for 1964).

Alabama was (and is) on a four-year cycle, and was not redistricted until 1974 even though it was still under jurisdiction of the district court.


Am I misremembering, but wasn't Maine forced to do its congressional redistricting for the 2012 election, even though in the past it had waited for the -4 elections.

So we won't receive the reapportionment data all in one file, but it'll be made public state-by-state on a flow basis?

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2020 Census Geographic Products Available (for Arkansas, Colorado, Maryland, New Jersey and Virginia) (U.S. Census Bureau)

One can view maps or download shapefiles, etc. from the Decennial Census P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data page.

These were released on January 19. The next two tranches have also been announced.

States Posted on 01/19/2021: AR, CO, MD, NJ & VA
States Posting on 01/26/2021: CA, IA, IN, LA, MO, NC, NY, OH, & OR
States Posting on 02/02/2021: DE, HI, ME, MS, NE, NV, PA, SD, WA, WI

NJ and VA are the two states holding legislative elections this year, and being first among the geographical products suggests that they may be first with the population data.

LA and MS also hold odd-year legislative elections, but they are on a 4-year cycle with the next elections in 2023.


In our discussion of staggered state senate terms did I ever mention that North Dakota truncates the terms of senators and representatives when there has been considerable change in the district.

So if odd-numbered districts were contested in 2020, and an odd-numbered district would be significantly changed in redistricting, the senator's term would be truncated to two years, and an election for a two-year term would be held in 2022.

This would mean that even-numbered districts contested in 2018 would be up in 2022 and there would be no restrictions on redistricting for 2022.

North Dakota also varies the number of districts, so for example, they might add a district in the Williston Basin rather than sliding districts into an area of high growth.


There is clear precedent for not redistricting four year (concurrent) when the first election would be in the -4 year.

Maryland elects legislators on a four year cycle. There was a companion case to Reynolds v Sims, where the SCOTUS explicitly stated that it was OK for Maryland to not be  redistricted until the 1966 (the other states, including Alabama were required to redistrict for 1964).

Alabama was (and is) on a four-year cycle, and was not redistricted until 1974 even though it was still under jurisdiction of the district court.


Am I misremembering, but wasn't Maine forced to do its congressional redistricting for the 2012 election, even though in the past it had waited for the -4 elections.

So we won't receive the reapportionment data all in one file, but it'll be made public state-by-state on a flow basis?

The state populations for reapportionment will be issued all at once along with the new apportionments.

What is being released now is just the geography. You wouldn't want all the states in one file. Arkansas for example is 1.6 GB.

Yes, the state populations both in total and up to the census tract level are what I meant, whether those would be released as well in the same manner as the geographies. Thank you for the quick answer.

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Is this thread the thread that will be used to post the inevitable 2020 census results, or will there be a separate thread specifically for those?

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Will we be receiving data on Puerto Rico and the other U.S. territories on the same schedule as the rest of the U.S. states and District of Columbia?